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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Bulls Remain in Control - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bulls did well last week, posting more than 3% gains in the C and S funds.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-dwcpf-png

    The 200 dma remains a battleground, but so far that average is supporting price on the S&P 500. I am not concerned about it failing with the smart money taking more bullish positions.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-nyad-png

    Breadth remains bullish.

    TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish this
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  2. Smart Money Gets Bullish - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Well, the bull party was going well til some trade news hit the wires, which triggered some selling that sent price below the neutral line. We'll have to see if it was just an initial knee-jerk reaction or not.

    Attachment 46261
    Attachment 46262

    For the most part, the charts held up, though the DWCPF dipped back below the 200 dma. But the S&P did not and that is the more visible chart.

    Attachment 46260
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  3. The Bulls Push Price Above a Key Average - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Given the strength of Tuesday's rally, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that Wednesday saw more strength. Breadth and volume appeared to be indicating that the move was not transient.

    namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-s-p-500-png
    namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-dwcpf-png

    We can see that price has now closed above the 200 dma on the S&P and is sitting on that key average on the DWCPF. Volume was a bit more robust than the previous session.

    namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk-nyad-png
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  4. Break Out Imminent? Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Sooner or later it was almost certainly going to happen. The 200 dma got tested on the S&P 500 today.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-s-p-500-png
    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-dwcpf-png

    Price closed largely on that key average at the end of the trading day. Price on the DWCPF closed just under its 200 dma. Momentum turned up. Volume was fairly robust. That's a plus for the bulls.

    Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04-nyad-png

    Looking at breadth, it soared. That's what
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  5. The Bulls Remain in Charge - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    All in all, the bulls had a pretty good week last week as price bounced all the way back to the upper end of the trading range, though higher highs were hit.

    YIELD CURVE-s-p-500-png
    YIELD CURVE-dwcpf-png

    We can see that price on the S&P 500 is tracking sideways just under its 200 dma. Volume has fallen off. Price on the DWCPF is ebbing higher and closed for significant gains on the week.

    YIELD CURVE-nyad-png
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes