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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. NAAIM Gives a Green Light

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    After putting some gains together earlier in the week, the market pulled back a bit today, which does nothing to hurt the uptrend.

    YIELD CURVE-s-p-500-png
    YIELD CURVE-dwcpf-png

    Both charts still look good as price continues to whittle away at yearly losses. The 200 dma is really not far off and is almost certain to get tested.

    YIELD CURVE-nyad-png

    Breadth remains bullish.

    The big news of the
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  2. The 200 Day Average is Getting Closer

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The 3rd up-leg continued today with price closing with solid gains.

    U.S. inventories rise 0.9% in July-s-p-500-png
    U.S. inventories rise 0.9% in July-dwcpf-png

    We can see that price is now making a run toward the 200 dma on both charts. Momentum is rising and volume was robust.

    U.S. inventories rise 0.9% in July-nyad-png

    Breadth is looking very good and remains solidly bullish.

    It will be interesting to see what the next NAAIM reading will be, which is tomorrow.
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  3. Another Up-Leg May Have Begun

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    It didn't take long since the neutral NAAIM reading for the market to break higher. That was the most likely outcome, though the timing is not easy to discern.

    Lower highs - lower lows-s-p-500-png
    Lower highs - lower lows-dwcpf-png

    The next up-leg may have started. We can see that price moved further away from the 50 dma on the S&P 500, while price on the DWCPF closed above that level for the first time in about 2 months. Momentum is beginning to turn back up.
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  4. The Bulls Still Have Control

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The market closed lower overall last week. I consider the weakness to be part of the climb higher. We need consolidation here and there to keep it going (historically).

    The big guys are here!!!!-s-p-500-png
    The big guys are here!!!!-dwcpf-png

    Price on the S&P 500 closed above its 50 dma. There is plenty of resistance to get to the next big hurdle, which is the 200 dma, but first we need to see price remain above the 50. The DWCPF closed almost neutral for the week. Momentum
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  5. The Bullish Case is Looking a Bit Better

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The market was largely flat on somewhat volatile trading today.

    Market Talk-s-p-500-png
    Market Talk-dwcpf-png

    We can see that price on the S&P 500 is testing the falling 50 dma again and closed just under it. The DWCPF may test it simply when the average falls down to the top of the trading channel if it does not break out first. Momentum is rather flat.

    Market Talk-nyad-png

    Breadth rose, but remains neutral.
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes