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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Small Caps Bounce - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The market bounced back on Wednesday with both the S&P and DWCPF closing with gains.

    Daily Funds Returns-spx-png
    Daily Funds Returns-dwcpf-png

    It's nothing to write home about, but at least it breaks the string of losses on the DWCPF. Volume remains low, which is understandable at this time of the year.

    Daily Funds Returns-nyad-png

    Breadth recovered nicely and is sporting a fresh all-time high.

    We get a fresh NAAIM
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  2. Profit Taking Manifests - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The last trading week of the year is seeing what appears to be profit taking and tax shifting as we wind down 2020.

    Throw it all in the c fund?-spx-png
    Throw it all in the c fund?-dwcpf-png

    Both the S&P and DWCPF were lower today. Notably, the S&P was hitting fresh all-time highs early in the trading session, but could not hold those gains. The DWCPF went lower quicker than the S&P. It was more like a bear ambush within minutes of the open. Still, the technical damage is
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  3. Another Mixed Close - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Once again, the market closed mixed on the trading day. Mixed closes seem to be getting almost routine.

    But this time, instead of the DWCPF leading the S&P, it was the other way around. The S&P closed almost 1% higher, while the DWCPF closed about 1% lower.

    TSP Investing-spx-png
    TSP Investing-dwcpf-png

    Price on the S&P closed at another all-time high. Price on the DWCPF gave up come recent gains.

    TSP Investing-nyad-png
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  4. Mixed Week, But Bulls Still in Control - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The holiday shortened week last week was mixed with the S&P closing out the week with a modest loss, but the DWCPF ending the week with a gain of over 1%.

    New member needs advice-spx-png
    New member needs advice-dwcpf-png

    Still no changes overall to the charts. Both remain bullish, but as has been the case for some time now, the DWCPF continues to lead the S&P.

    New member needs advice-nyad-png

    Cumulative breadth remains bullish.
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  5. Turn-Around Monday - Posted by Coolhand

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The bears made an attempt to take the market down today, but it was quickly countered by the bulls. Price bottomed after the 1st hour and recovered to close mixed on the day.

    tspmoney.com-spx-png
    tspmoney.com-dwcpf-png

    There isn't anything particularly notable on the charts today. Volume was actually average given the holiday week. Normally, I'd expect less volume. Momentum is still negative on the S&P, but price remains not far from the peak.
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes