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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks soared Wednesday as investors celebrated the results of the mid-term election; this became the lone catalyst for buying resulting in a loss of some of those gains. The new division in power in Congress increased confidence in buyers because it reduces the potential for policy change which means less uncertainty for investors. The trouble came when the FOMC meeting Thursday reminded investors of the rate hikes to come next month. October's ugly action in stocks could be partially credited to the rate hike in September, at least that's how investors interpreted the sell-off.

Technical set ups in the indices' charts are still not in the clear. The potential for resistance from trend lines could be seen as good selling opportunities for those who may be desperate for some profit taking. We do have seasonality kicking in as we approach Thanksgiving and stocks are looking cheap to those who have been buying all year. Those who wait for stocks to pull back may lose their opportunity to get the low price of good companies.

Bonds were up with stocks and the F-fund outperformed the S and I-fund for the week with a gain of 0.26%. The C-fund was the outlier for the week with a gain of 2.21%.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 9th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) have bounced back the last couple of weeks and have powered through the main moving averages along the way. A couple of open gaps are still below the current price and the closest one was partially filled on Friday to put the index back below its 50-day EMA where had closed above the two days prior. Despite the late selling, the late rally added enough gains to give the fund more than 2% in gains for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) pulled back along with large cap stocks but it did not test its 50 and 200-day EMA for resistance before doing so. There is an open gap below but its 20-day marked as a good spot for the index to close for the week. The S-fund ended the week with just a gain of 0.17% to lag the TSP stock funds.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) matched the action of small caps and has an open gap below. The 20-day EMA marked the highs for Friday which could scare investors while the gap below is still open. The I-fund was up 0.23% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) were up for the week but are facing falling resistance and its 20-day EMA. The gap from May that was filled in early October has been has held as the low but we will see what can break first. The F-fund was up 0.26% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive/a>
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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Comments

  1. isleepwell's Avatar
    It's Sunday, 11/11/18, and I just looked at the futures indices for tomorrow. It appears as if trading will certainly look red tomorrow. Has the pain disappeared? I believe retailers will do well heading into the holiday season. The typical American consumer spends this time of year with reckless abandon. It's not a mistake which places the Detroit Lions football team on television every single Thanksgiving Day. With elections over, and political gridlock on the menu the markets should grind progressively higher short term.

    Next week should present the opportunity for TSP investors to get off the sidelines, i.e. (move capital out of the G Fund, which contains approximately 40% of all dollars invested into albeit restrictive choices such as the C, and S Funds respectively.) Truth be told, I've been with the TSP for over 23 years, and have accumulated healthy nest egg. I like this coming week as a buying pivot point. Anyone else with other thoughts? If not, consider coming off the sidelines on some of these red days too prior to the deer hunting season. I am looking for a nice healthy buck. Shouldn't you?

    ...isleepwell...
    Updated 11-12-2018 at 07:33 AM by isleepwell (punctuation and spelling)
  2. isleepwell's Avatar
    And, so, I get to say I told you so. Having said that, buy this market with both fists this week. It's 11/14/18 as I write this post. Buy here. Take your couch potato investor self to the computer, and move capital to the C, and S funds or miss out on the next 2 months of green.

    ...isleepwell...

SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)