TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up
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, 11-10-2018 at 04:42 PM (4974 Views)
Stocks soared Wednesday as investors celebrated the results of the mid-term election; this became the lone catalyst for buying resulting in a loss of some of those gains. The new division in power in Congress increased confidence in buyers because it reduces the potential for policy change which means less uncertainty for investors. The trouble came when the FOMC meeting Thursday reminded investors of the rate hikes to come next month. October's ugly action in stocks could be partially credited to the rate hike in September, at least that's how investors interpreted the sell-off.
Technical set ups in the indices' charts are still not in the clear. The potential for resistance from trend lines could be seen as good selling opportunities for those who may be desperate for some profit taking. We do have seasonality kicking in as we approach Thanksgiving and stocks are looking cheap to those who have been buying all year. Those who wait for stocks to pull back may lose their opportunity to get the low price of good companies.
Bonds were up with stocks and the F-fund outperformed the S and I-fund for the week with a gain of 0.26%. The C-fund was the outlier for the week with a gain of 2.21%.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 9th:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) have bounced back the last couple of weeks and have powered through the main moving averages along the way. A couple of open gaps are still below the current price and the closest one was partially filled on Friday to put the index back below its 50-day EMA where had closed above the two days prior. Despite the late selling, the late rally added enough gains to give the fund more than 2% in gains for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) pulled back along with large cap stocks but it did not test its 50 and 200-day EMA for resistance before doing so. There is an open gap below but its 20-day marked as a good spot for the index to close for the week. The S-fund ended the week with just a gain of 0.17% to lag the TSP stock funds.
EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) matched the action of small caps and has an open gap below. The 20-day EMA marked the highs for Friday which could scare investors while the gap below is still open. The I-fund was up 0.23% for the week.
AGG (Bonds / F-fund) were up for the week but are facing falling resistance and its 20-day EMA. The gap from May that was filled in early October has been has held as the low but we will see what can break first. The F-fund was up 0.26% for the week.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
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