TSP Talk: So far so good for bullish holiday bias
by
, 11-25-2022 at 01:13 AM (558 Views)
Just a quick update today to post the returns from Wednesday after another nice rally for stocks during this holiday week. The Dow added 96-points and we saw larger percentage gains in the broader market indices. The I-fund led again after the dollar fell sharply on Wednesday. Bonds were up as yields also fell.
As we have been pointing about all week, the seasonal advantage goes to the bulls surrounding Thanksgiving Day, and this year it has not disappointed. Today is the last day for that advantage because the week after Thanksgiving weekend has been more favorable to the bears over the years.
Daily TSP Funds Return
A positive day today would buck a more recently trend where the Friday after Thanksgiving has moved in the opposite direction of the Wednesday before in 8 of the last 9 years, so in that case the bears may have an advantage today. But over the longer term, the Friday after Thanksgiving has been up much more often than it has been down.
Here's the chart of the S&P 500 which shows the nice rally we've seen this week, but the index is quickly approaching some overhead resistance, which would be a big test for this current 6-week bear market rally.
Yields, and particularly the dollar, were down sharply on Wednesday and that 1% loss in the dollar gave the I-fund another big advantage over the US stock funds.
There's just a half day of trading today, although that doesn't impact the 12 noon ET TSP transaction deadline.
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Thanks so much for reading. I hope you are enjoying your Thanksgiving weekend! We'll see you back here on Monday.
Tom Crowley
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