TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Another volatile week in stocks where the bulls came out on top. The previous Friday's rally continued into this Monday and through Tuesday. Profit taking started Wednesday when disappointing earnings from tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet erased early gains. Again on Thursday early intraday gains were erased in the second half of the day and it was starting to look like a clear peak to the bear market rally had been established. But then Friday happened. The bulls had complete control of the day and indices rose to new highs for the week.

Out of the mostly disappointing tech earnings stood Apple whose third quarter performance wasn't outstanding to its own expectations, but was outstanding next to the other tech giants who faced the same headwinds of higher interest rates and rising inflation. Money flew right back into equities. Most other sectors in the S&P 500 were up so this was a broad move higher by the indices.

GDP grew 2.6% in the third quarter. This was not outstanding but was preceded by two quarter of decline. Despite coming out Thursday when the indices couldn't hold onto early gains, this has got to be growing optimism among investors that the Federal Reserve may successfully pull off a 'soft landing'. Although it's argued that the Fed's rate hikes have yet to show their effect in the economic data. The Federal Reserve makes an interest rate decision this coming Wednesday and we can bet volatility will remain high leading up to it. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 0.75% but the Fed futures probability of that has decreased from 95% last week to now 82%. The probability of a 0.50% increase has risen from 5% to 18% in contrast. So, optimism of a more dovish Fed is growing.

Outperforming this week was the S-fund with a gain of 5.26% for the week. Both the C and I-fund were up less than 4%.

The F-fund was up 1.65% ending ten-week steak of losses.


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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 28:




SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) accelerated its recent success and made a significant move above its 50-day and remained above it for the last four days. At the same time the ETF passed what looked like a declining resistance line from peaks in August and September. What looked like a clear sign to sell was not taken by the collective investor. The C-fund gained 3.96%, second to the S-fund for the week likely due to its heavy weight of tech stocks compared to the S-fund index.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also passed its equivalent falling resistance and 50-day EMA. Above sits an open gap that could go either way as a attraction or deterrent for more buyers. The S-fund outperformed the TSP funds this week with a 5.26% gain. The C and S-fund are about matched for their October performances.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) lagged this week but still a 3.10% gain for the week is still a decent profit. Similarly, this EFA sits above its 50-day EMA with open gaps above.




BND (Bonds / F-fund) switched long-term moment this week. The F-fund's best day came Friday where it gapped up and added nearly 1% on the day. The next two followed with more modest gains but pulled back a bit Friday. This week's 1.65% gain in the F-fund ended a ten-week streak of losses for the fund.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.