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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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We've been wondering for months what was capable of shaking this relentless upside in stock indices; it turned out to be amateur investors forcing the hand of hedge fund short positions. It was a very interesting development this week and will have its own consequences in some form; but it was a small drop in a big bucket. What it did do is distract from earnings reports and the status quo trading regimens to shed off more than 3 or 4 percent in the indices in just three days.

To those who were looking for entry points or opportunities to add more exposure this wild week was a positive. Interest rates are still as low as ever and the new government is more than willing to put free money into the economy. As artificial it may be, its still gasoline on a camp fire for stock prices. What's notable for the bear argument is the sudden change in technical conditions. The trading channels have been on a steady climb for months and the moves this week on the indices pushed prices out of those channels giving opportunity for the charts to at least level out if not 'correct'. We are entering a new month next week which sometimes come with a change in character. The events at the end of this month almost guarantee a new adjustment to the market.

Come what may, don't get emotional over your allocations. Have a plan according to your situation that includes volatile times.

The S-fund took the greatest hit for the TSP stock funds this week with a 4.13% loss. The F-fund was just over par for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 29:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) gapped down into Wednesday where the index eventually closed below its 20-day EMA for the first time since early November. An intraday rally Thursday nearly closed the gap but prices dropped for the later half of the day. Selling continued Friday to solidify the effect of the internet traders moves. The index found support at its 50-day EMA and closed just above it for the week. The C-fund was down 3.29% for the week to push the index into negative territory for January by 1%.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) slid below its 20-day EMA but did not make it to test its 20-day EMA. Nonetheless the index lagged the TSP funds with a 4.13% loss for the week. The index was left below previous support trend lines but still added 2.85% for January.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) fell to its 50-day EMA this week, closing an open gap from December and bottoming at the top of another. A couple of open gaps were produced for this week as well. The I-fund fell 3.45% for the week.




BND (Bonds / F-fund) had a relatively wide range this week and even made it back above its 20 and 50-day EMAs intraday Wednesday. The index pulled back from there to give back most of the early gains but ended with a 0.04% gain for the week to outperform the TSP funds.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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Comments

  1. bleeck's Avatar
    I fund EFA gap from November 6-9, 2020 needs to be filled. This year?

SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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