TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks took a loss this week following three consecutive weeks of gains. The previous week's gains were slim compared to those before so this week's losses were not a change in character. Stock indices spent Monday morning in positive territory and that would be it. A reversal sell-off Monday that was centered around concerns of stimulus negotiations in congress falling apart. This week was not all selling and in fact the S&P 500 added gains the last two days of the trading week.

The market is in high anticipation of economic stimulus and the outcome of the election. There is a lot in the air that could help or hurt the economic growth while new virus cases on the rise. The potential of a deal keeps market players in stocks but where do they want to be positioned if a deal is met? A sell the news reaction to a stimulus deal and election results are on the table especially if stocks are bought up ahead of the events. Keep an eye on this trend and decide if you are willing to put yourself in the crosshairs.

Earnings season kicked off this last week and had a lackluster effect on the market. Nothing too impressive is getting investors excited. Next week most of the heavy weight companies will be reporting and it will be the last week before the election. Expect volatile action.

Long term bond yields jumped higher this week and in turn the bond price index took a loss putting the index in a poor condition. The F-fund was down 0.41% for the week. The I-fund was the sole gainer aside from the G-fund.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 23:




The SPY's (S&P 500 / C-fund) reversed Monday and hit its lows at the 20-day EMA. The moving average held as support for the week other than the lows of Thursday that traded below the 20-day EMA. The action since mid-September has put the index in a bull-flag that tend to break out higher. The index is in a favorable position ahead of the election although there is not concrete evidence there won't be a sell the news reaction that would override any technical set up. The C-fund gained 0.51% for the week lagging the other TSP funds.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) has the same technical positions as the S&P 500 but also has the pervious highs of early September holding as support Wednesday and Thursday. Although not drawn on the chart below, the index has also put itself in a bull flag ahead of the election. The S-fund fell 0.21% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) filled the open gap of the previous week on Monday. The 20 and 50-day EMAs were moved through without much support or resistance but the index did remain within a range surrounding the moving averages. The index ended the week with gains back above its 20-day EMA to give the I-fund gains for the week. The I-fund outperformed the TSP funds with a gain of 0.11%




The BND (Bonds / F-fund) slipped this week as bond yields on long term bonds spike this week. The action not only drove the index to the bottom of its trading channel but pushed it below late Thursday. The index did rebound Friday to put the price back within the trading channel. The F-fund fell 0.41% for the week putting the index in negative territory for the year.



Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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