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I did watch the morning action yesterday up until about the TSP deadline, but then I was on the road for 5+ hours. However I did see that the indices barely moved from the time I left my office at around noon until I got back online to check out the charts after the close. So it was a mixed, kind of quiet Tuesday after Monday's selloff. There was no rebound or bounce, but no tack on selling either and the charts are telling an interesting story of a market that may have an excuse to go either ...

The seasonality chart did its job yesterday as it suggested weakness on the Monday after a positive Thanksgiving week of trading. Of course the headlines helped the bears as China deals with massive protests over Covid restrictions, and the market is worried about the ramifications of that situation. The Dow lost almost 500-points with similar percentage losses in the broader indices. Small caps lagged, yields and were mostly flat, and the dollar was up. The latter helped put the pressure on ...

Thanksgiving week was favorable for the bulls with respectable gains of 1.4% to 2.4% for the TSP stock indices, and even the F-fund (bonds) gained over 1%. The Dow gained 153-points in the short day of trading on Friday, while the other indices were mixed. The S&P 500 was flat, the Nasdaq lagged with a moderate loss, and the small caps and I-fund led the way with solid gains.

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For the week ending 11-25-2022

This is my analysis of the weekly charts for the S&P 500, IWM, the VIX and 10-year yields. Premium subscribers also receive a daily commentary with the daily charts and my timing system’s signals for both TSP and ETFs outside of TSP.

Current YTD returns thru 11-25-2022:

TSP:
G fund: 2.59%
F fund: -12.35% ...

Seasonal bias went in the bulls' favor as expected. It was a typical low volume week that started slow and a bit directionless Monday. But the gains for the week were really put in motion on Tuesday when prices rose mostly uncontested all day for stock indices. Volatility picked up Wednesday, but the bulls reclaimed lost gains by the end of the day. The shortened trading Friday was quiet, and the price range was the smallest we've seen this year.

So, with momentum still on the bulls' ...