Blog Comments

Good analysis. I will be paying more attention to your work Sir.

The banks are definitely better buys now than they were in April - now they only have one way to go and that's up. Yes, they will make a valuable contribution to the SPX powering the index into the 1300 range and perhaps beyond. Thanx for the visuals.

Tepper has somewhat answered this question. His fund has lightened up on financials. Commented that financials are no better or worse than any other equity. If the economy/market goes up so will the financials if the economy/market goes down so will they. He, like most of the hedge fund guys, is counting on QE as their backup plan.

Unregistered- This whole rally since September has been based on the dream of QE2. Every analyst pumping for QE2 has already positioned themselves for it. Who's left to buy? Will the retail investor be there for the Tepper types to pass their shares off to on the news? Probably, but the point is, the big buyers have already done their part.

I continue to like my bank stocks and will hold them until the skies clear - they will pay their dividends and will turn around going forward - at least now they remain cheap for dividend reinvestments.

So, would the recommendation be to buy financials as QE2 is supposed to lead to more borrowing and lending and the banks will begin to join in on the party? Or is the recent uptrend unsustainable enthusiasm for ultimately destined to fail policies? My view is that enthusiasm for QE2 will wane and the dollar beat down will only fuel stocks more in the short term so I guess I agree with Bullitt, if you have been fortunate enough to make some money the last 6 weeks you probably should take your profits and get defensive in the near term.

I just roll over when he starts talking dirty. The more nasty he gets the better. It's like when he's good he's good but when he's bad he's better.

Bullitt,

In Tom's 'Guess the Final 2010 S&P500' contest I figured on a massive 3% growth rate. I still stick with that.

I had also hoped that I could 'market time' my way to about 6%.

Instead, I 'market miss-timed' my way to effectively 0% so far. Still ahead of my market goal - to beat the S&P.

Sure hate to to have to page down so many times to get to my AutoTracker record

I think I'll stay strong and long until I see what the four year cycle nesting will do. The damage could already have been done.

June had the same type of run-up prior to options expiry.
However, that week was much lighter on the news and reports than next week will be.
I'm still very skeptical of this big gain with so little resistance, even though there were some decent volume exchanges.
I guess what bugs me the most is the last 1/2 hour climbs or dumps, like it's an algo fakeout game without a justifiable catalyst.
Thanks for posting- wondered where you've been.

There will be many opportunities ahead my friend. Forget about it.

Have a great holiday weekend Boghie.

The market has to discount increased taxes, bloated regulation, and a Black Swan flying around dumping turds on any sign of growth and progress. He – or his Administration, or his Congress – can’t just shut up. I mean, talking up last month’s job numbers – and we get 13,000 new jobs nationwide.

You’re not alone in wishing you had followed your own posts.

I forgot to read my own ‘Looking Forward to 2011’ post from Jan 1. Fish in a barrel. But, I’ll be the fish that got away.

Yeah, especially since Tom Browning threw a perfect game with the screw ball. Dave Stewart did throw a no-no with the fork ball though.

it could be a fork ball.

Screw ball would have worked better.

Talk about folks being Bearish! Larry Kudlow is now on and is telling folks to sell stocks.... I hope Birchtree is not watching ha....

like Boghie said... he gets quiet when he goes bullish!
butterflies?? LOL

Exactly right Bullitt. I did the same thing all last year as the market continued rising. I kept staying out (and even shorted it a couple of times) because I just knew it was going to retest the March lows. I just knew we were on the top of a W! But the indexes kept on rising! The market must have been rigged by the PPT! Live and learn.

By the way, bullishness on the dollar has rarely been higher, and everyone is bearish on the euro. When my mother and my secretary both inform me of how bad things are in Europe, you know sentiment toward the euro is bad. My contrarian take on this is that the dollar is beginning to roll over and the euro and the pound are turning up--both of which are positive for equities (especially foreign equities). That's why I'm 100% I fund.

Good read today.

When Bullitt screws the horns on, Look Out

Good read Bullitt

I like it - you were really gloomy there for awhile but now the light shines.

I think I predicted a 3% gain in the S&P in Tom's contest.

I stand by that.

That doesn't mean I want to accept a 3% gain


Its funny we moved to equities on the same day. You have been so quiet. But, it felt right.