Blog Comments

We need more agility. Costs actually ROSE, not fell, after trade limits of two per month were imposed. If the Thrift Board was smart, they would take a hard look at what they were trying to accomplish, and will then understand that freedom for employees to control their own funds is more important--AND makes more financial sense for the TSP as a whole.

Ha!...hatemail indicator

No doubt, this crash has caused confusion amongst the formerly steadfast indicators. It's been kind of like trying to fly a plane through the Bermuda Triangle.

Woosh.

I'm running out of reasons here myself. The only thing, and I mean the only thing keeping me in this is the fact that the headlines have dictated which way the markets have headed every day for the past couple of months now. The fact that people can just pile on with bad news in short ETF's, while the crooks have no uptick rule and naked shorting has just exacerbated the problem. Yes the banks are insolvent but for God's sake, 92% of Americans still pay or have paid off their mortgage!!! The system is still alive and lending Mr. Politician, it's just that it's no longer lending to deadbeats and meanwhile people like me don't need loans because of a positive savings account!

In the 1920's (which I'm not afraid to say I really don't have much knowledge of beyond prohibition) people lined up in front of their bank to put the run on it. Nowadays, the run is made by dumping 5,000 shares of a stock with a single mouse click and it only takes a split second. Even money can be withdrawn from money market funds in a heartbeat. To make it worse, you've got people saying 'own gold, physical gold, the market is going to 600'! It doesn't take much to be a technical analyst these days but nobody wants to get burned again. Stocks for the long run is being greatly challenged here, but for that I blame the greed and gluttony of not the CEO's but the working class Americans. We all know- the guys who abuse sick leave, do minimal work, always complain...

Yeah, the drug dealer on the corner is an idiot, but do you blame him for the drug problem in America? Do we blame the lenders because Americans all feel they must keep up with the Joneses? I can go on and on here, but at the end of the day, nobody benefited from all the excesses and idea that trees grow to the sky. It goes way beyond the banks my friends.

The market is always right and once you let yourself believe you've got it figured out, boom. I do believe we're in a secular bear, but I don't believe the guys who've been using the headlines to make money the past couple months will be doing that forever. Just remember the panic buying in oil a few months ago.

I've pretty much come to the conclusion, unless something major occurs, is to sit in the G fund the rest of the year, but I didn't say never, but I've got cut bad trying to catch that falling knife the last 2 times.

I'm still going to buy individual stocks for our ROTHS, but be very selective and hope they can hang on. Otherwise, I might as well bury it in the yard and that plan is looking more attractive everyday.

CB

You've expressed my own feelings pretty well this morning Tom. I can't keep up with the seemingly non-stop diet of bad news. Much of which is expected in a bear market during a recession, but between the questionable way our administration is handling it, the defiant, privileged nature many high flying CEOs are publicly displaying, and the occasional uncovering of Wall Street fraud, I can no longer find a reason to embrace my typical contrarian market strategy. The Fed, Treasury, and Administration are shooting from the hip and making up the rules as they go along right now. To say there is no clarity in this market is a severe understatement. We need a lot more than soothing words and optimistic rhetoric can deliver.

Well Tom, since you made an IFT, you know that means, right???

We WILL rally Friday!!!

Falling off the cliff ....

you feel it like it's happening... great post Tom

The futures are relatively flat as I write this Wednesday night, but I don't think today, or the rest of the week, will be very flat. I'm looking for a big move one way or the other.

How about in both directions? So much for not being flat - if we want to call 250 point swings being flat.

FYI... This morning's high was 851.85. The 20-day moving average is about 851.

It is bearish out there. The game has not changed...yet. The market needs to see where all of this economic stimulus is going. There's still no concrete plan in motion as all previous fixes have yielded short term results. Until financial equities turn around this market is going to have a tough time not only getting traction, but reversing the long term trend.

I'm looking for a final leg down sometime this quarter; 2nd quarter at the latest, before we finally hit bottom. The new administration needs this time to get a plan together and the market needs time to assess it.

Good 30 Year analysis. Lots of talk in the blogosphere about an impending bubble guaranteed to collapse in the Treasury world and I've been hearing that since the 120 level first got hit. Looking at the chart now, it looks eerily similar to the Sept-Nov timeframe. I know of a guy who's using TBT as a 'buy and hold' mechanism because it's a sure thing.

I figured this... The big players knew the GDP would be a disaster today and they all established their short positions on Wednesday's huge gap knowing 1. the past gaps over 2% have always been filled and 2. rear view mirror investors will be selling before the GDP release. Yesterday's volume was pretty weak as you said. I was thinking we'd get that gap down or flat open today, the 3x Bear funds would drive it down while the boys stepped in, covered and put a run on the shorts. I'm surprised it hasn't panned out like that today. It's incredible how much influence the headlines have had on the stock market lately.

VIX looks to have some resistance at 45 which could be bullish in the IT. I also have to lend some credence to your new sentiment buy signal and I don't care what anyone says, it's too bearish out there!

Interesting to note that for the amount of % drop we had today, the volume wasn't too impressive. I don't think it's a coincidence that the dumb money indicator is dropping like a rock in '09 and that we're right back to November on the Indexes. Looking forward to checking some sentiment indicators tonight after today's purge.

It's impossible to outsmart The Boys.

Sold out of my Oil trade today with a gain of 25%.

Averaged down into that Oil trade shortly after, my initial purchase and I'm finally back up in the black again. Looking for a reverse H&S setup off the 50 DMA here. Moving average may finally be turning after the 2 month MACD divergence.

Agree, follow through on volume is needed.

So much going on with options expiration, and seasonality. I have no idea what to expect over the next week or two.

Looks good price wise being above the 50 DMA, but I have a hard time calling this a break out. Where's the volume?

The holiday could be on the bulls' side. If we can see a move over 900, as you said, it will look good. Today's Fed meeting may tell us the answer.