Blog Comments

The Sentiment Survey did a good job this week.

P&F Chart showing a breakdown as well. I hate it when I buy into a correction.

It's definitely shining in my eye's oh'boy.

For sentiment, don't blame the bullishness on me... I have consistently been a bear on this based solely on our fundamentals. We have some serious fixing to do.

Some folks see only sunshine, so until reality sets in and we can get some meaningful corrections (hopefully sparking change in our "budget") and remove/reduce the manipulation of these markets, they will probably keep going up... until one day, BAM... and THAT correction will be painful...

Come on America... SEE the light

I vote for fake out.

That's the sentiment we would look for to find a bottom, and yet our readers are more bullish according to today's survey.

This is possibly the "fake-out I have been talking about for several days now. So, one or two more days and we should have our answer to - is it a fake-out or a break down? I'll stay the course for another couple of days.

4:02 p.m. thursday, 11/17/2011. This is freaking depressing . It is shaping up to look like a very unmerry christmas.. I am seriously considering just cashing out my TSP and buying some land. Really. Or maybe just just pick up a millionaire, or two, at a bar and keep them that at my cabin 'till they cough it up , hahaha. seem's like a better retirment plan than this roller coaster. Ocuppy (did i spell that right?) wall street? I say let's sell it all off and we split the proceed's. LOL!!! Have a nice rest of 2011 everyone. Peace out.

Key levels are being tested. Is this the "fake-out" or the real breakdown? 50-day EMA needs to hold.

Originally Posted by pmcint01

You are getting all fancy with that seasonality chart now. I like it. What's the difference between the green and red bars?

Good question. I didn't even notice that. I'll bet it's an error but let me ask jason from sentimentrader.com and get back to you.

All I want for Christmas is more coal and a golden cross, thankyou.

You are getting all fancy with that seasonality chart now. I like it. What's the difference between the green and red bars?

"the best that's available"? Wow, thanks! I appreciate that.

As far as finding time, I quit my cushy GS-13 job back in 2008 to do TSP Talk full time, so it's really all I do. No regrets, as I love what I do now...

Thanks again!

I am definitely in Group #2 (lol) and appreciate all the hard work that goes into your daily analysis. I don't know how you find the time to put it all together, but all of us who follow your column ( which is the best that's available) value it highly. Don't ever doubt you're doing a valuable service for all of us TSPers and even some of my friends who are not in the government.

Good day Tom, and looking at today's future's (11/16/2011).I must say...Goodbye gain's of the last 2 day's....hahaha. It's a madhouse!! A madhouse!!!!! I find Charleton Heston strangely comforting in time's such as these. ,). Go figure. P.S. Which shell is the peanut actually under? I guess you must truly be a student of the "game" long enough to perhap's figure it out, at least 20% of the time anyway. Good luck to all of you player's. But the U.S. debt really has me worried, especially for our younger american's.

Thanks Brian. It's all good. If you notice I didn't really get too defensive over the post. It wouldn't be the first time someone reacted to a commentary of mine that didn't work out well. I kind of got used to it over the years. It seems some disatified people leave and never come back, and others stick around like you and see that this is not an easy game for anyone. I'm glad you are in group 2.

Tom

Originally Posted by xarmy87

Tom, i wish to apologize to you and coolhand for the first ever post comments i made a couple of week's ago, remember, "the PLAIN OL' Balls" comment? Because when i went back and reviewed your october 4th commentary ( at the bottom ).... i saw at the bottom your statistic's for positivity of the s&p for the next several week's following a consecutive 2nd day closing low. Quote "Since 1928, if the 2nd down day was a Monday (as it was this time), then the next week was positive all 5 times, averaging +11.1%." I do appreciate alll of your guidance and information, but i must have had a mental epiphany about the market's direction (that was only good for one time use and expired in 27 day's or less..hahaha). Because my "ball's/gut" told me to go 100% "S" from Oct.3rd thru the 30th, but i followed the Sent.survey (which has helped me in the past, i must say) and i guess i was pissed at myself and lashed out by making uncalled for dispariging comment's about you and cool hand and your respective system's. so again, i apologize to you both. If i had followed my gut and the last paragraph of your Oct.4th commentary (which i admit i did not read thoroughly )...i would have made enough to cover the next 2 year's of my TSP withdrawal's. Anyway it was no fault of you guy's. Thank's again for such indepth advice and info. Sincerely. Brian

"... the U.S. stock market rallied despite the 7% yield, as the U.S. economic data, in particular retail sales and producer prices, was not bad."

Asia & Europe were both down, and we were up. Now Asia continues to move lower. Lately the markets seem to be moving in lockstep, with either us or Europe taking the lead, and Asia following the next day. What does it say that Asia is not following us up today? With the late sell off for our market, and negative follow through in Asia, my guess is lower prices to come.

Tom, i wish to apologize to you and coolhand for the first ever post comments i made a couple of week's ago, remember, "the PLAIN OL' Balls" comment? Because when i went back and reviewed your october 4th commentary ( at the bottom ).... i saw at the bottom your statistic's for positivity of the s&p for the next several week's following a consecutive 2nd day closing low. Quote "Since 1928, if the 2nd down day was a Monday (as it was this time), then the next week was positive all 5 times, averaging +11.1%." I do appreciate alll of your guidance and information, but i must have had a mental epiphany about the market's direction (that was only good for one time use and expired in 27 day's or less..hahaha). Because my "ball's/gut" told me to go 100% "S" from Oct.3rd thru the 30th, but i followed the Sent.survey (which has helped me in the past, i must say) and i guess i was pissed at myself and lashed out by making uncalled for dispariging comment's about you and cool hand and your respective system's. so again, i apologize to you both. If i had followed my gut and the last paragraph of your Oct.4th commentary (which i admit i did not read thoroughly )...i would have made enough to cover the next 2 year's of my TSP withdrawal's. Anyway it was no fault of you guy's. Thank's again for such indepth advice and info. Sincerely. Brian

I have to agree with you, Tom. I like that you try to give all sides of the info and let us pick our way thru! But also looking at the Relative Strength and Stoics, as long as Europe stays relatively benign (yeah, I know, a BIG if), the near term market outlook looks bullish. I am speaking with my money as well, being all in for this week. (and also saying so on the sentiment survey...which coincidently says to stay out of the current market!)

I have to agree that at some point, probably in 2012, the ills of the economic world will haunt us again, but I like what I'm seeing going into the end of the year.

Nice commentary, Tom. Here is my opinion. I have no facts to back this up, so it is just opinion. This market is going down. It may not be tomorrow, this week, or this month, but we are going lower. Much lower. I like the idea of a false breakout to the upside of that triangle on Monday then we go down to the bottom of the range and perhaps even break to the downside for the "real" move. I'm never right though, so take it FWIW. Which is not much.