TSP Talk Blog

More volatility in the stock market on Friday as a mixed jobs report sent stocks higher, then lower, then higher again into the close. A big decline in the dollar helped move prices higher... in almost everything, and of course the I-fund loved that. The Dow gained 402-points and oil jumped $4 a barrel to move back over $90. Next up, the election and the CPI report.

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The post-Fed hangover hit Wall Street on Thursday as shell shocked bulls retreated and questioned their hopes of the lows for the year being in already. They still may be, but some ominous chart patterns and more rate hikes may dampen those hopes. The Dow lost 147-points on Thursday and the broader indices were slightly mixed with small caps holding up better than large caps, and the Transportation Index closing with a nice gain. Yields and the dollar were up and that keeps the headwind for stocks ...

Stocks suffered through huge swings yesterday after the release of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, policy statement, and press conference. Investors interpreted the policy statement as dovish, but Jerome Powell was much more hawkish at the press conference afterwards, causing the big reversals. The Dow lost 505-points after trading in a 932 point range and giving up a 400-point gain. Yields and the dollar also flip flipped as both ended the day higher despite falling earlier in the ...

Stocks opened sharply higher on Tuesday after the futures were up strongly all night, but as soon as that opening bell rang we saw sellers step up. By the close we saw modest losses almost across the board, although small caps (actually more midcaps) had a good day to help the S-fund to a nice gain on the day. The dollar and yields opened lower but battled back into the afternoon which was likely the catalyst for the reversal down of the stock market.

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The market did some modest digesting on Monday, digesting of Friday's big gains, last week's big gains, and October's big gains. The Dow lost 129-points but perhaps surprisingly, it was the best month for the Dow since 1976. Welcome to a bear market. The problem yesterday was that it appears that bond yields and the dollar have stopped pulling back, and are in fact moving up again. Does this say something about what savvy bond traders are preparing for during Wednesday's rate hike announcement? ...