TSP Talk Blog

After a mini-breakout in the S&P 500 last week, stocks chopped around on Monday in a tight range, closing mixed but mostly positive. The Dow lost 140-points with retail, energy and large banks dragging the index down, while the S&P (C-fund) and the I-fund were flat, and the broader indices like the Nasdaq and small caps saw modest to strong gains. Bonds were flat to slightly lower as yields continue to rise.

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A positive open on Friday turned negative by the close for the stock market, so the winning streak for the indices stopped at two, but it was quite a two day period as we finally saw the S&P 500 move to new highs for the year. A little retracing of a big rally is common, but the bulls really want to see some dip buying before any pullback gets serious during this pre-holiday week. The charts look good. The news / story doesn't. Who's got it right?

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The bulls managed to put back to back winning days together for just the second time this month. The Dow gained a modest 115-points while the broader indices performed even better. The S&P 500 hit 4200 for the first time since last August, and the Nasdaq is also at August 2022 levels. Both still have a long way to go to reach the all time highs, but it's a start and it is doing so while the market is battling many fundamental roadblocks. Bonds broke down as yields and the dollar continue ...

A big rally in stocks on Wednesday pushed the indices to the top of their ranges, up to resistance, or to higher highs in the case of the Nasdaq. The Dow gained more than 400-points while small caps led the way after rebounds in the Regional Banks and Energy sector. The dollar was up but looks a little toppy. Bonds were down as yields rallied again.

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That was a little different. It was more choppy range bound action but the late selling was different. That may have been as a result of the anticipated outcome of the debt ceiling meetings going on and were concluding after the closing bell. The Dow lost 1% or 336-points. Small caps reversed Monday's big gains with a big loss, so the resistance on that chart is holding firm again. Bonds were down.

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