Blog Comments

dannyboy, has not received any email from Tommy @ tsptalk new services that are free for one week? I really want help in choosing funds. I was doing well #189 on the tracker but I got lured away by girlfriend and I missed a week back in March and I have not been able to get out of the #’400’s since then.

Best November since 2001 for Nasdaq and best in history for S&P 500 - and we're entering a positive seasonality period.

Lumber has doubled in the last 3 months? There's something you don't see every day... nice catch! I don't pay near enough attention to commodities to notice things like that very often. The bigger question is, what does that mean for stocks? Less profit margin on home builders?

Didn't realize EFA managed to break higher yesterday too.

From Argus Research

The S&P 500 has seen a mild breakout above the June 8 high of 3,232. The index had been trapped in a sideways base for about six weeks. The recent market pause worked off a mildly overbought condition on the daily chart. At the June 11 closing low, or the low for the consolidation, the “500” had given up 7.1% -- which is a very normal and healthy pullback during an uptrend.

With the breakout, it’s possible the index runs back to its all-time high (ATH) of 3,386 from February 19. We think a larger pullback is coming, but are not sure whether it will be after the “500” takes a run at its old high. Sentiment is certainly suggesting a pullback in the not-too-distant future, but price is the final arbiter.

.. Oh, and I'm certainly not saying this means "anything" at all -- it is coincidental that in your comparison between the 2018-2019 V-bottom rise and the current S&P charts... how right in the last few days we are right about at the identical share-price point... hmmm.

Thank you Tom for your candid objective assessment, as always! I think this market is crazy. Today - looks like may have been smart to IFT into equities (C-fund mostlly) at least somewhat - yesterday... yet the bigger more realistic risk was (is?) that the bear flags will turn South with S&P500 playing at the 50-day EMA... if this is the big unchecked confirmation of a V-bottom rally, I'm way behind it in both my TSP acct and my wife's that I manage. Oh-well, too close to retirement to be too aggressive for us, so I guess we'll have to be happy with preservation plus some crumbs - for now. At least I'm recovering with my Robinhood investments on the side.

Coronavirus will be fading? I did some seeking data and I found that past virus; were bad, got worse, them warm weather started and they faded. The details to each outbreak differs, but in general; They get worse than, previous ones(PO's), They are more expensive to cure, They're overall economic effects are worse than previous PO's. With all the crazy swings in the market, I needed to do some thing different. I had a dream over the weekend and the Prophet Daniel, I, me, could not interpret this? I decided to follow some advice BIRCH once gave me. Never chase, markets go down, but then up, just invest for long term.
D

[QUOTE][COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]This isn't something I want to post each day,...[/QUOTE]

Why not?

Quit being fearful of those folks, post what's relevant. And ever since the trade wars began, China's Index is relevant.

It's real easy to do easy stuff. I greatly respect those that can do hard stuff.

___________________________
[/FONT][/COLOR][I][COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms]“Blind party loyalty will be our downfall. We must follow the truth wherever it leads.” [/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
[I][COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms]― DaShanne Stokes[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]

[QUOTE=tsptalk]...Many expected some kind of a rally off of the Trump exoneration but I think the market had shown little interest in this for a long time ago. ...[/QUOTE]

Just an FYI, the report summary clearly indicated that the report didn't exonerate Trump.

[B]Fed Chair Powell: ‘The law is clear,’ Trump can’t fire me
[/B][url]https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/fed-chair-powell-the-law-is-clear-trump-cant-fire-me.html[/url]

Yeah ... not a sock puppet.

FYI:

[B]Fed’s Powell says he will begin news conferences following each meeting starting in January[/B]
[url]https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/feds-powell-says-he-will-begin-press-conferences-following-each-meeting-starting-in-january.html[/url]

Thanks!

Looks like you posted another copy of the S&P500 chart under the F Fund commentary instead of an AGG chart.

delete duplicate comment

Tom,

Great commentary! Looks like you were right about a relief rally, but will the S&P 500 take another turn downward towards 2200 like you said?!?! Let's hope not. I am one of those folks who had enough and bailed earlier this month and before the rally today I was ahead of the C/S by 8% this month alone, in a less volatile market I would have already bought back in, as an 8% advantage is amazing, obviously. I definitely don't want to miss the rally back up, that's for sure. I have 1 IFT left for the month/year, looking to get back in so I can be in the market for the "January effect", which I think definitely applies to this year's end.

Hope you had a great holiday! All the best to you in 2019!!!

Originally Posted by shitepoke

Tom...what happened to the s&p after the bell "futures" 17 pt gain you spoke of...did it dissipate in thin air??

They are still in there. Right now (as of 10:44 ET) the futures are flat on the day, but the S&P is up about 17-points. It's all the gains from after the bell last night. The S&P will close today about 17 points higher than the futures quote at 4 PM ET.

I hope that answered your question.

Tom...what happened to the s&p after the bell "futures" 17 pt gain you spoke of...did it dissipate in thin air??

Noticed the triple bottom on the DWCPF in Coolhand's thread and you have it pegged here. That should be a bullish signal for the next couple weeks, which is a little early but possibly time-coincident with Santa coming to town. Merry Christmas!

[QUOTE][COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Whether it was because President Trump put pressure on the Fed - In an interview with the Washington Post on Tuesday Trump said, "So far, I'm not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay [Jerome Powell]" - or if the Fed actually saw a change in the economy (ironically a slowdown), I don't know. But it is what it is, and that is bullish for stocks. [/FONT][/COLOR][/QUOTE]

Correlation is not necessarily causation.

It is quite possible Trump knew what Powell would say, and used the inside information to tweet/say something that would go over well, in his calculations, with his followers--to give the impression of [I]fear [/I]and/or [I]pressure[/I].

As I recall, Trump has front-run an "official" FED announcement via his twitter account once prior.

In my opinion, I don't think Powell spoke from a position of[I] 'fear' [/I]or [I]'pressure'[/I] from Trump. If he did speak from such a position, I don't think the below quote would have been spoken:

[QUOTE][COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]But the Fed also threw in a little warning saying, [/FONT][/COLOR][I]"An escalation in trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, or other adverse shocks could lead to a decline in investor appetite for risks in general," the report said. "The resulting drop in asset prices might be particularly large, given that valuations appear elevated relative to historical levels." - [COLOR=#000000]Source - [URL="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/fed-warns-that-particularly-large-plunge-in-asset-prices-is-possible-if-risks-materialize.html"]CNBC[/URL][/COLOR][/I][/QUOTE]

This quote almost speaks directly to Trump, and not in a sock-puppet kinda way.

While I'm not convinced Powell is [I]not[/I] a Trump sock-puppet, he deserves the benefit of the doubt ... at this point in time, imo.

Furthermore, on June 25, 2018 the Chairman of the TSP Advisory,"Chairman Kennedy highlighted the importance of ensuring

that all employees, regardless of level, have the opportunity to

come forward with suggestions and ideas and feel like they are part of the team."

Truthfully, I don't feel like I'm a member of any team here. According to what I read, six members sit on the advisory board controlling the fate of where approximately $600 billion dollars can get invested. Ages ago, when I first invested in the TSP, I remember reading a pitch by the TSP then which stated, "It will not be uncommon for participants to retire with several million dollars in their TSP account."

That may just have been a sales pitch at the time, but I liked the sound of it. The investment landscape of the day has changed. Can you travel around the world on a bicycle? I don't believe so. And, I do not believe investors here can obtain outstanding returns via the current investment mechanisms available within the TSP as they currently exist.

A well known retired senator spoke on one of the business channels the other day on perhaps 11/8/18. He spoke about how no politician wishes to touch the sacred retirement cows such as social security. He stated, that by the year 2034, for every $1,000 dollars promised to the social security participant in benefits, the social security fund would only be able to pay out $770 if a remedy does not appear within the Congress.

Only two ways exist to balance a budget in my minds' eye. They are: 1) Increase revenues. 2) Decrease expenses.
Congress could increase the social security tax, cut benefits, raise retirement ages, or do a combination of the above.
The Congress has a lot more people, and interests to deal with on the Social Security issue. Therefore, a lot more convincing, and many more fingers in the final outcome pie.

With six members sitting on the TSP Advisory Board, we appear in better shape. If we only need to convince six people to upgrade investment vehicles so participants can overcome the Social Security shortfall which will occur by 2034 if left unchecked, then we still can get something positive accomplished in this arena.

Mr. Kennedy, distinguished members of the Advisory Board, fellow Americans, please do the right thing, and move forward with the concept of giving participants better choices in the struggle toward their future investment survival.

...isleepwell...