Blog Comments

Nice break on the dollar, thanks for pointing it out.

Could Ukraine be what the market needed to replicate that chart from the '30s?

Markets go up on low volume when retail investors buy and institutions don't...

Which is right?

Big sell days have big volume, so who do you think is selling?

Dow-20 isn't participating, is that because this is a fake rally or because oil prices are high... hmmm

RE: Seasonality in the S&P; I noticed the extra ordinary positive results for the 20th trading day in February. But having a 20th trading day in February only occurs in leap years! Come on 2016!

True. They're having a nice day today so perhaps like the small caps, they are following this rally instead of leading?

I know oil is back near $100, and perhaps the trucks and planes are losing some business because of the severe weather? Speculating.

DOW Transports still lagging since the recent sell-off.

Concur.

Hey Anthony. Good to hear from you.

I haven't read that article yet, but my commentary on Wednesday (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/2754-pause.html) may be saying something similar.

Hello TSPTalkers. Been a while. Been very busy.

Anyway ... I caught this article today on Seeking Alpha and I'm a follower of Cullen Roche. I enjoy his analysis and pragmatism. I'm posting it here because he makes some very valid comments aimed at the hype that's built up about the 1929 chart. Short version is sure, they look similar, but in a lot of ways it's comparing apples and oranges.

About That 1929 Chart... The Details Matter - Seeking Alpha
Chart ‘O the Day: Let’s Stop with the 1929 Comparisons, Okay? | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
Regards,
Anthony

small sample size?

Originally Posted by Sensei

Is the market closed on Monday? If so, we'll only have 19 days in Feb. That 20th day might only apply to leap years.

Thanx- still curious about the why's of such a strong day even on a leap year?

Probably true, Sensei, and shitepoke, the first 3 days in March are historically pretty strong.

Is the market closed on Monday? If so, we'll only have 19 days in Feb. That 20th day might only apply to leap years.

Tom- whats with the HUGE final day in Feb on the seasonality chart and does it continue into March?

that comparison to 1929 is shockingly scary

I do use the sentiment system as a heavily weighted indicator, but I'll go into more detail in the Premium thread area.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-plus/

Tom, what are you doing with your own TSP?. Do you follow Sentiment Survey?

Going back to 1951, there have been 24 occasions where the S&P 500 closed down in January. Of those events, 15 (or 62.5%) of the time February closed down for an average negative gain of -3.46%

9 of 24 February's closed positive for an average 2.13% gain

The average 24 month gain was -1.36%

So, here comes the Dow at 12,500 ???

I don't think BT will concede to that prognosis...

Nice call on the potential Head & Shoulders formation.