Blog Comments

  1. Bullitt's Avatar
    Didn't realize EFA managed to break higher yesterday too.

    From Argus Research

    The S&P 500 has seen a mild breakout above the June 8 high of 3,232. The index had been trapped in a sideways base for about six weeks. The recent market pause worked off a mildly overbought condition on the daily chart. At the June 11 closing low, or the low for the consolidation, the “500” had given up 7.1% -- which is a very normal and healthy pullback during an uptrend.

    With the breakout, it’s possible the index runs back to its all-time high (ATH) of 3,386 from February 19. We think a larger pullback is coming, but are not sure whether it will be after the “500” takes a run at its old high. Sentiment is certainly suggesting a pullback in the not-too-distant future, but price is the final arbiter.
  2. FAAM's Avatar
    .. Oh, and I'm certainly not saying this means "anything" at all -- it is coincidental that in your comparison between the 2018-2019 V-bottom rise and the current S&P charts... how right in the last few days we are right about at the identical share-price point... hmmm.
  3. FAAM's Avatar
    Thank you Tom for your candid objective assessment, as always! I think this market is crazy. Today - looks like may have been smart to IFT into equities (C-fund mostlly) at least somewhat - yesterday... yet the bigger more realistic risk was (is?) that the bear flags will turn South with S&P500 playing at the 50-day EMA... if this is the big unchecked confirmation of a V-bottom rally, I'm way behind it in both my TSP acct and my wife's that I manage. Oh-well, too close to retirement to be too aggressive for us, so I guess we'll have to be happy with preservation plus some crumbs - for now. At least I'm recovering with my Robinhood investments on the side.
  4. dannyboy's Avatar
    Coronavirus will be fading? I did some seeking data and I found that past virus; were bad, got worse, them warm weather started and they faded. The details to each outbreak differs, but in general; They get worse than, previous ones(PO's), They are more expensive to cure, They're overall economic effects are worse than previous PO's. With all the crazy swings in the market, I needed to do some thing different. I had a dream over the weekend and the Prophet Daniel, I, me, could not interpret this? I decided to follow some advice BIRCH once gave me. Never chase, markets go down, but then up, just invest for long term.
  5. userque's Avatar
    [QUOTE][COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]This isn't something I want to post each day,...[/QUOTE]

    Why not?

    Quit being fearful of those folks, post what's relevant. And ever since the trade wars began, China's Index is relevant.

    It's real easy to do easy stuff. I greatly respect those that can do hard stuff.

    [/FONT][/COLOR][I][COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms]“Blind party loyalty will be our downfall. We must follow the truth wherever it leads.” [/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
    [I][COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms]― DaShanne Stokes[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
  6. userque's Avatar
    [QUOTE=tsptalk]...Many expected some kind of a rally off of the Trump exoneration but I think the market had shown little interest in this for a long time ago. ...[/QUOTE]

    Just an FYI, the report summary clearly indicated that the report didn't exonerate Trump.
  7. userque's Avatar
    [B]Fed Chair Powell: ‘The law is clear,’ Trump can’t fire me

    Yeah ... not a sock puppet.
  8. userque's Avatar

    [B]Fed’s Powell says he will begin news conferences following each meeting starting in January[/B]
  9. tsptalk's Avatar
  10. Cactus's Avatar
    Looks like you posted another copy of the S&P500 chart under the F Fund commentary instead of an AGG chart.
  11. Cactus's Avatar
    delete duplicate comment
  12. djlc86's Avatar

    Great commentary! Looks like you were right about a relief rally, but will the S&P 500 take another turn downward towards 2200 like you said?!?! Let's hope not. I am one of those folks who had enough and bailed earlier this month and before the rally today I was ahead of the C/S by 8% this month alone, in a less volatile market I would have already bought back in, as an 8% advantage is amazing, obviously. I definitely don't want to miss the rally back up, that's for sure. I have 1 IFT left for the month/year, looking to get back in so I can be in the market for the "January effect", which I think definitely applies to this year's end.

    Hope you had a great holiday! All the best to you in 2019!!!
  13. tsptalk's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by shitepoke
    Tom...what happened to the s&p after the bell "futures" 17 pt gain you spoke of...did it dissipate in thin air??
    They are still in there. Right now (as of 10:44 ET) the futures are flat on the day, but the S&P is up about 17-points. It's all the gains from after the bell last night. The S&P will close today about 17 points higher than the futures quote at 4 PM ET.

    I hope that answered your question.
  14. shitepoke's Avatar
    Tom...what happened to the s&p after the bell "futures" 17 pt gain you spoke of...did it dissipate in thin air??
  15. bmneveu's Avatar
    Noticed the triple bottom on the DWCPF in Coolhand's thread and you have it pegged here. That should be a bullish signal for the next couple weeks, which is a little early but possibly time-coincident with Santa coming to town. Merry Christmas!
  16. userque's Avatar
    [QUOTE][COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Whether it was because President Trump put pressure on the Fed - In an interview with the Washington Post on Tuesday Trump said, "So far, I'm not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay [Jerome Powell]" - or if the Fed actually saw a change in the economy (ironically a slowdown), I don't know. But it is what it is, and that is bullish for stocks. [/FONT][/COLOR][/QUOTE]

    Correlation is not necessarily causation.

    It is quite possible Trump knew what Powell would say, and used the inside information to tweet/say something that would go over well, in his calculations, with his followers--to give the impression of [I]fear [/I]and/or [I]pressure[/I].

    As I recall, Trump has front-run an "official" FED announcement via his twitter account once prior.

    In my opinion, I don't think Powell spoke from a position of[I] 'fear' [/I]or [I]'pressure'[/I] from Trump. If he did speak from such a position, I don't think the below quote would have been spoken:

    [QUOTE][COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]But the Fed also threw in a little warning saying, [/FONT][/COLOR][I]"An escalation in trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, or other adverse shocks could lead to a decline in investor appetite for risks in general," the report said. "The resulting drop in asset prices might be particularly large, given that valuations appear elevated relative to historical levels." - [COLOR=#000000]Source - [URL=""]CNBC[/URL][/COLOR][/I][/QUOTE]

    This quote almost speaks directly to Trump, and not in a sock-puppet kinda way.

    While I'm not convinced Powell is [I]not[/I] a Trump sock-puppet, he deserves the benefit of the doubt ... at this point in time, imo.
  17. isleepwell's Avatar
    Furthermore, on June 25, 2018 the Chairman of the TSP Advisory,"Chairman Kennedy highlighted the importance of ensuring

    that all employees, regardless of level, have the opportunity to

    come forward with suggestions and ideas and feel like they are part of the team."

    Truthfully, I don't feel like I'm a member of any team here. According to what I read, six members sit on the advisory board controlling the fate of where approximately $600 billion dollars can get invested. Ages ago, when I first invested in the TSP, I remember reading a pitch by the TSP then which stated, "It will not be uncommon for participants to retire with several million dollars in their TSP account."

    That may just have been a sales pitch at the time, but I liked the sound of it. The investment landscape of the day has changed. Can you travel around the world on a bicycle? I don't believe so. And, I do not believe investors here can obtain outstanding returns via the current investment mechanisms available within the TSP as they currently exist.

    A well known retired senator spoke on one of the business channels the other day on perhaps 11/8/18. He spoke about how no politician wishes to touch the sacred retirement cows such as social security. He stated, that by the year 2034, for every $1,000 dollars promised to the social security participant in benefits, the social security fund would only be able to pay out $770 if a remedy does not appear within the Congress.

    Only two ways exist to balance a budget in my minds' eye. They are: 1) Increase revenues. 2) Decrease expenses.
    Congress could increase the social security tax, cut benefits, raise retirement ages, or do a combination of the above.
    The Congress has a lot more people, and interests to deal with on the Social Security issue. Therefore, a lot more convincing, and many more fingers in the final outcome pie.

    With six members sitting on the TSP Advisory Board, we appear in better shape. If we only need to convince six people to upgrade investment vehicles so participants can overcome the Social Security shortfall which will occur by 2034 if left unchecked, then we still can get something positive accomplished in this arena.

    Mr. Kennedy, distinguished members of the Advisory Board, fellow Americans, please do the right thing, and move forward with the concept of giving participants better choices in the struggle toward their future investment survival.

  18. tsptalk's Avatar
    We agree. More investment choices and a couple of more transfers allowed each month would be wonderful, but they (the TSP advisory board) don't care too much about what we want.
  19. isleepwell's Avatar
    Your Post Election Blast Off recap seems spot on yet investors in the TSP do not benefit from the current vehicles offered to place capital. Sure, we get a 5% match, can invest a healthy chunk of money for the retirement years, but do we get the appreciation available with other funds. With approximately 600 billion dollars placed within the TSP I think the TSP advisory board could do a better service to investors by offering a wider choice/selection upon which participants could find returns.

    Having Blackrock, which manages in excess of 6 TRILLION dollars on our side makes a difference. Why can't the TSP advisory board enlist Blackrock to come up with other investment possibilities for participants to choose among? Even if Blackrock charged a higher fee for those possibilities, would it not be worth entertaining the notion if higher returns could get achieved? It boils down to risk management I suppose. I am to date disappointed with the caretaker, also ran mentality of the TSP advisory board overall. Never in all the years of investing with the TSP have I ever been offered to fill out an investor satisfaction survey. And, I believe the leadership of the Advisory Board does a disservice to patrons for offering such inadequate investment opportunities.

    I am not looking to take on a pile of risk, and don't want participants to lose money ever. Yet, at the same time, if I, and/or any other participants had a wider variety to place the investment then we may in fact achieve better results.

    Bottom line: The TSP Advisory Board seems asleep as of this date, 11/11/18, and oblivious to the desires of participants who wish for better choices to place 401k dollars.

  20. userque's Avatar
    [B]Full Disclosure[/B] :) I compared them both (TNX and BND) against AGG, rather than the F-fund. While BND is sloppy next to the F-fund, it's nearly a perfect match (correlation-wise) to AGG ... [B]much [/B]more than slightly better then TNX. And since we can only use the AGG for T/A charting purposes, it seemed logical to use that as the benchmark, rather than the F-fund.

    Also note, you compared percentages. Percentages aren't really correlations. For example:

    Imagine an Underlying and its 3x bull ETF. We'll call them UND and ETF. They are perfectly 'correlated.' When UND moves 1%, ETF moves exactly 3% in the same direction.

    Your analysis would show that the percentages don't 'match.' However, they are 100% correlated. The T/A done on one would exactly match the T/A done on the other.

    This is what's needed for charting purposes. On the other hand, if you were looking for something to match the [I]actual percentage moves[/I], then that would be a different animal.

    This is probably a critical distinction when finding a replacement for AGG with regard to [B]chart T/A[/B].

    [B]Fun facts:[/B] I ran a correlation search over nearly all stocks and etf's (not indicies). IEF and UST are listed as 2nd and 3rd best correlated (Under BND). TNX wasn't in the top 20 :( I then ran a line chart comparison (%-wise) to visually see that they not only are correlated, their %-scales are the 'same.'

    I'd be curious to see your analysis comparing BND and TNX to AGG :)

    [QUOTE=tsptalk;bt9208]Thanks. I had that one on my list but hadn't been checking it.

    Looks like neither are very consistant with the F-fund but BND may be slightly better.[/QUOTE]
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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