Blog Comments

  1. radarvector's Avatar
    You are exactly right! I don't see this as whining, you're just stating facts. I got burned in 2008 when I placed a trade one morning while the Dow was down over 1000 points. When the day ended it had recovered 75 percent of those losses costing me a huge potential gain. 750 Dow points may not seem like much now but back in 2008 it was very large percentage of the index. When I retired I vowed not to be constrained by the archaic TSP rules and I moved 2/3rds of my TSP into my self directed IRA at Vanguard. I have been very happy with that decision. I left the rest in TSP because the G fund was paying significantly higher than the money market accounts at Vanguard. In my opinion the G fund is the only reason to keep any funds in TSP after retirement and with it paying a measly 1% return, even that reasoning is sketchy.
  2. tsptalk's Avatar
    That's certainly part of it, but I think program trading is more prevalent. They may or may not be money managers, but trading conglomerates, if you will.
  3. TommyIV's Avatar
    Back when I was getting interested in the stock market in the early to mid-1990's we had a very strong bull market. Not unlike the action of recent years. Strong bull markets tend to do that, as we saw last year with the Robinhood crowd who turned into day traders during the COVID crash rebound. But back in the 90's, even though the trend was clearly up, we had serious pullbacks and corrections all the time. Market timers had a lot more t
    o work with that the 2 to 5% pullbacks we've seen over the last 18 months.

    Between 1996 and the peak of 2000 there were probably more than 8 corrections of 10% or more in less than five years. Then the volatility started during the dot com bubble bursting so it was a trader's market. It's never easy but there were certainly more opportunities.




    It may come back again someday and the insta-dip buyers will get burned, but for now, they are having a field day.


    We may talked about this before, but do you think there is a significant effect, especially on dips today, from retail investors? Or are their trades overshadowed by big money moves? I'm talking effect on entire indices not meme stocks. If so that may account for the shorter dips now that Joe can trade from his phone in line at Arby's.
  4. dannyboy's Avatar
    dannyboy, has not received any email from Tommy @ tsptalk new services that are free for one week? I really want help in choosing funds. I was doing well #189 on the tracker but I got lured away by girlfriend and I missed a week back in March and I have not been able to get out of the #’400’s since then.
  5. Bullitt's Avatar
    Best November since 2001 for Nasdaq and best in history for S&P 500 - and we're entering a positive seasonality period.
  6. bmneveu's Avatar
    Lumber has doubled in the last 3 months? There's something you don't see every day... nice catch! I don't pay near enough attention to commodities to notice things like that very often. The bigger question is, what does that mean for stocks? Less profit margin on home builders?
  7. Bullitt's Avatar
    Didn't realize EFA managed to break higher yesterday too.

    From Argus Research

    The S&P 500 has seen a mild breakout above the June 8 high of 3,232. The index had been trapped in a sideways base for about six weeks. The recent market pause worked off a mildly overbought condition on the daily chart. At the June 11 closing low, or the low for the consolidation, the “500” had given up 7.1% -- which is a very normal and healthy pullback during an uptrend.

    With the breakout, it’s possible the index runs back to its all-time high (ATH) of 3,386 from February 19. We think a larger pullback is coming, but are not sure whether it will be after the “500” takes a run at its old high. Sentiment is certainly suggesting a pullback in the not-too-distant future, but price is the final arbiter.
  8. FAAM's Avatar
    .. Oh, and I'm certainly not saying this means "anything" at all -- it is coincidental that in your comparison between the 2018-2019 V-bottom rise and the current S&P charts... how right in the last few days we are right about at the identical share-price point... hmmm.
  9. FAAM's Avatar
    Thank you Tom for your candid objective assessment, as always! I think this market is crazy. Today - looks like may have been smart to IFT into equities (C-fund mostlly) at least somewhat - yesterday... yet the bigger more realistic risk was (is?) that the bear flags will turn South with S&P500 playing at the 50-day EMA... if this is the big unchecked confirmation of a V-bottom rally, I'm way behind it in both my TSP acct and my wife's that I manage. Oh-well, too close to retirement to be too aggressive for us, so I guess we'll have to be happy with preservation plus some crumbs - for now. At least I'm recovering with my Robinhood investments on the side.
  10. dannyboy's Avatar
    Coronavirus will be fading? I did some seeking data and I found that past virus; were bad, got worse, them warm weather started and they faded. The details to each outbreak differs, but in general; They get worse than, previous ones(PO's), They are more expensive to cure, They're overall economic effects are worse than previous PO's. With all the crazy swings in the market, I needed to do some thing different. I had a dream over the weekend and the Prophet Daniel, I, me, could not interpret this? I decided to follow some advice BIRCH once gave me. Never chase, markets go down, but then up, just invest for long term.
    D
  11. userque's Avatar
    [QUOTE][COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]This isn't something I want to post each day,...[/QUOTE]

    Why not?

    Quit being fearful of those folks, post what's relevant. And ever since the trade wars began, China's Index is relevant.

    It's real easy to do easy stuff. I greatly respect those that can do hard stuff.

    ___________________________
    [/FONT][/COLOR][I][COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms]“Blind party loyalty will be our downfall. We must follow the truth wherever it leads.” [/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
    [I][COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms]― DaShanne Stokes[/FONT][/COLOR][/I]
  12. userque's Avatar
    [QUOTE=tsptalk]...Many expected some kind of a rally off of the Trump exoneration but I think the market had shown little interest in this for a long time ago. ...[/QUOTE]

    Just an FYI, the report summary clearly indicated that the report didn't exonerate Trump.
  13. userque's Avatar
    [B]Fed Chair Powell: ‘The law is clear,’ Trump can’t fire me
    [/B][url]https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/fed-chair-powell-the-law-is-clear-trump-cant-fire-me.html[/url]

    Yeah ... not a sock puppet.
  14. userque's Avatar
    FYI:

    [B]Fed’s Powell says he will begin news conferences following each meeting starting in January[/B]
    [url]https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/feds-powell-says-he-will-begin-press-conferences-following-each-meeting-starting-in-january.html[/url]
  15. tsptalk's Avatar
    Thanks!
  16. Cactus's Avatar
    Looks like you posted another copy of the S&P500 chart under the F Fund commentary instead of an AGG chart.
  17. Cactus's Avatar
    delete duplicate comment
  18. djlc86's Avatar
    Tom,

    Great commentary! Looks like you were right about a relief rally, but will the S&P 500 take another turn downward towards 2200 like you said?!?! Let's hope not. I am one of those folks who had enough and bailed earlier this month and before the rally today I was ahead of the C/S by 8% this month alone, in a less volatile market I would have already bought back in, as an 8% advantage is amazing, obviously. I definitely don't want to miss the rally back up, that's for sure. I have 1 IFT left for the month/year, looking to get back in so I can be in the market for the "January effect", which I think definitely applies to this year's end.

    Hope you had a great holiday! All the best to you in 2019!!!
  19. tsptalk's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by shitepoke
    Tom...what happened to the s&p after the bell "futures" 17 pt gain you spoke of...did it dissipate in thin air??
    They are still in there. Right now (as of 10:44 ET) the futures are flat on the day, but the S&P is up about 17-points. It's all the gains from after the bell last night. The S&P will close today about 17 points higher than the futures quote at 4 PM ET.

    I hope that answered your question.
  20. shitepoke's Avatar
    Tom...what happened to the s&p after the bell "futures" 17 pt gain you spoke of...did it dissipate in thin air??
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