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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks catch some wind after a shaky start to a short week pushing the S&P 500 to another record level. It was all green across the board for the TSP funds this week with the credit given to Friday's action. Heading into Friday, the S-fund was the only fund (aside from the G-fund) starting the day in positive territory for the week. Friday was the start of a new month and a new quarter which gave merit to the buy button. A rebound in tech stocks carried a lot of weight for the indices. Credit for the move back into tech stocks was given to backflow rotation from the move out of the sector earlier in March; but an infrastructure bill proposed by President Biden this week included money for research and development in technology. What the final bill will actually include is up for debate with a lack of support from Republicans who oppose the tax hikes the bill includes. I question why there is not more backlash of the tax hikes from investors but for now the focus is on the effects of the stimulus.

A jobs report came out Friday while the markets were closed. The jobs added surpassed expectations at 916,000; the most added in a month since August. Investors have the weekend to digest the numbers of the jobs report but a good report is no guarantee for a positive response. Next week does have the advantage of momentum from Thursday's action to start of the new month. The question for investors is whether we are climbing a wall of worry or are vaccines, stimulus, and planned spending programs creating goldilocks conditions to keep more investors buying.

The S-fund outperformed the TSP funds with a 1.98% gain for the week. Bonds were just behind the I-fund with a 0.25% gain.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending April 1:





The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) produced new record highs this week and in the process broke rising resistance and broke through the 400 (4000 for the S&P 500 index) milestone. The number 400 is arbitrary but has a mental effect on human traders. The milestone could be a confidence booster or act as a mental block that will need to be tested again and again to move past. The C-fund gained 1.16% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) outperformed the TSP funds for the week with a 1.998% gain. The index technical charisma but still has outperformed large caps for the year. The index ended the week back above its 20-day EMA which it fell below mid-March. The concern for the index now is the bear flag it has formed and the technical tendency for bear flags to break down.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) had slipped down to its 20-day EMA this week that matched the top of an open gap from the previous week. A rally Thursday pushed the index to positive territory for the week and just below overhead resistance. The index was up 0.26% for the week to under perform the TSP stock funds.




BND (Bonds / F-fund) had fallen below par for the week but added 0.36% on Thursday to push the index into positive territory for the week. The 20-day EMA held as resistance but there is still room above to move in the trading channel of the last few weeks. For now bond investors are hoping for stabilization in the market over hoping for a quick recovery. The F-fund was up 0.25% for the week.





Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

www.tsptalk.com
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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