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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Market prices ebbed and flowed this week where the final flow was a surge to all time highs for large cap stocks. Friday's record closing price was the third (Monday and Wednesday) record close of the week for the S&P 500. This was the fourth straight week of gains for the index. Investors deciphered through an array of news and data to justify trading stocks at record prices. The lineup in review included more earnings reports, the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut, consumer and manufacturing data, the jobs report, and further rumors surrounding the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

Trading action this week lacked consistency. The cut of borrowing cost from the Fed, consumer data, and the October Jobs report were amongst the reasons to buy. However, investors questioned the long term progress of trade negotiations as well as the trade wars' effect on the economy brought out by poor manufacturing numbers. Earnings reports were mixed into both categories. But the reasons to buy over powered the uncertainty, made obvious by the record close.

Bond prices made a late comeback in mid-week to also produce gains along with stocks. The rise in bond prices was sparked by the rate cut by the Fed and signal of an end to the rate cuts for awhile.

All the TSP funds were up for the week with the C and S-fund sharing the lead with 1.49% gains. Bonds were up 0.47%.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 1st:




Here are the TSP fund returns for the month of October:



The I-fund outperformed the TSP funds in October with a 3.6% gain. The F-fund was up just over a quarter percent but still outperformed the G-funds 0.14% gain.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) gapped up to start the week but that gap was filled by mid-week before rebounding. A second gap was produced after the jobs report sparked buying into the open on Friday. A mid-October open gap remains but now sits under the 20 and 50-day EMAs.



The SPY made new all time highs this week and broke above rising trading resistance of the last two years. The C-fund rose 1.49% for the week.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) pared gains with the C-fund but has a different outlook on the charts. The index did move upon highs of mid-September rather than all time highs. The index also has an open gap below moving averages. The next feat will be the 2019 highs from late June; those highs are not the all time highs of the index.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) added to its 2019 highs this week. The index remained in its rising trading channel of mid October until it gapped higher Friday above the rising resistance of the channel. Gains have been steady for most of a month but an open gap also hangs over (well below) the head of the charts technical situation. The I-fund rose 1.18% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) fell below its 50-day EMA early in the week as Brexit and U.S./China trade negotiations seemed to be on calmer waters. Naturally investors jumped back into safer assets when trade drama started up again when a signing meeting was canceled; the meeting is said to be rescheduled. Bond prices also surged after the Fed cut rates and expressed this would be the last rate cut for a while. The F-fund pulled back a bit with the positive job numbers released Friday but was up 0.47% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)