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Busy week

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Stocks were higher on Friday as investors seemed reluctant to sell in front of this week's busy schedule. After starting the day in negative territory, the Dow ended the day up 75-points on Friday, with a similar percentage gain for the S&P 500 and small caps. The Nasdaq lagged and the I-fund got fair valued.

Daily TSP Funds Return


This week is a busy one with the North Korean Summit, a tariff agreement deadline on the 15th, plus three Central Bank meetings including the two-day FOMC meeting which will conclude on Wednesday where we are expecting the announcement of another interest rate hike from the Fed.

Reminder: I'm going to be in and out of the office over the next couple of weeks [starting 6/7], doing some traveling. I will be checking emails and posting premium alerts as usual, and I will posting something here everyday, but it may be quick updates and my time-frames may be off a little.




The S&P 500 / C-fund has been running very well of late and may be extended here, but no one seemed to want to sell in front of this week's Central Bank meetings and Korean Summit. The Fed could turn hawkish if they believe the economy is getting over-heated, and we've seen signs of that, but despite the probable rate hike coming, they seem reluctant to step in front of it by saying inflation is under control. Their wording on Wednesday could make a big difference to this rally.




The S-fund was up similarly to the S&P 500 so let's go right to the Dow Transportation Index which remains in that F-flag. As we've been mentioning, the F-flags can last quite a while but they tend to break to the downside once they do break. I thought it had broken last week but instead the flag portion had just widened.




The EAFE Index (EFA) was up on Friday, but the TSP gave the I-fund a loss. As you may know the overseas markets are closed for most of the time that the U.S. markets are trading and because of that the TSP has to make some adjustments to the I-fund price since things change between the international markets closing and the U.S. markets closing. Thursday's I-fund price was a lot higher than it should have been so they made the adjustment on Friday.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down slightly on Friday and the question going forward in the short-term is if those large open gaps are going to get filled, or are we seeing a new positive trend forming with a higher high and higher low?




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading, and thanks for your patience over the next couple of weeks while I'm out and about. We'll see you tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

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