What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

[EmoDx]

I predict .75% average over September and October 2011. QE2 Has yet to be unwound. The FED has pledged to keep yields low until 2013. Treasuries will continue to be a flight to security for the time being. Also, check out the chart I compiled.



Month
Return

Month
Return


Sep. 2004
0.26

Oct. 2004
0.83


Sep. 2005
-1.07

Oct. 2005
-0.81


Sep. 2006
0.89

Oct. 2006
0.67


Sep. 2007
0.75

Oct. 2007
0.96


Sep. 2008
-1.47

Oct. 2008
-2.18


Sep. 2009
1.1

Oct. 2009
0.39


Sep. 2010
0.06

Oct. 2010
0.31









Avg.
0.07

Avg.
0.02


Avg. Positive Months
0.612

Avg. Positive Months
0.632




That's my 2 cents. I am 95% in F fund until we shake out September's remaining volatility.

-E

[Happy_Trails]

I am kinda thinking we get a repeat of August this month in bonds. Your prediction for October sounds about right. I expect a lot of volatility this month, both bonds and stocks. I don't think it will be a smooth ride in either.

[jpcavin]

All I know is we got screwed on FV today!

[EmoDx]

Does anyone know what the percentage of AGG that is owned by the F fund? Just curious. Anyways, my post is about Operation Twist. Operation Twist is going to lower our G fund returns a good bit more than they re right now. That being said, I think a lot of money will b squeezed out of short term trasuries and make it into other high grade debt that actually returns something.

I think this will make AGG look attractive, especially now that the AGG prices retreat a little with the spike in equities. If you get ahead of the FED we could see a nice monthly return in bonds. The question is when to get out. This Greek debt thing is getting a little unnerving. While the market rallied today with the news out of Europe. I think it is a set up for a huge drop only for the mega rich to get back in for the exchange of wealth.

-Emo

[Birchtree]

Bonds have always given me the woolies - stick with the large cap C fund and I fund for further gains. We could easily bust right up through the recent bear flag and turn it into a bear head fake.