Play for the bounce... if only we had unlimited trades again

[FundSurfer]

Looking at the markets being down ~4.5%, my first thought is to buy today and sell tomorrow - thus plaaying for the bounce. This straegy usually works well, especially on big move days like today. You don't want to move in and stay because the bounce could be a dead cat bounce and markets fall again after the bounce. With limited trades, you can still make this maneuver, if you are currently in F or G. However, you then are stuck in F or G till the end of the month. I'm actually still leaning toward making this move. If we bounce by say, 1.5%, that is still a great return for August. You end up safe in F or G till September 1. There is less than two weeks to go in August. The markets are unlikely to rocket up from here over the next two weeks. Of course the markets could end the month up 3-4% from here and you will miss the chance to participate in that move.

Decisions, decisions.... If only we still had unlimited trades.... I could save us all some money and reduce our overall TSP administrative cost by making extra trades... (I know that sounds counterintuitive, but it actually cost us more money in admininstrative cost because we have limited trades. I need not covor that topic again.)

[clester]

I am thinking of making the same trade because I think those people short will cover for the weekend. It's just a gamble if you do and that falling knife can hurt.

[nnuut]

The FRTIB has done us a GREAT disservice by limiting out trades to 2 a Month. They should to be FIRED for causing the members to lose so much money and increasing costs in this time of computerized trading. Thanks for NOTHING!:nuts:

[Gumby]

The FRTIB has done us a GREAT disservice by limiting out trades to 2 a Month. They should to be FIRED for causing the members to lose so much money and increasing costs in this time of computerized trading. Thanks for NOTHING!:nuts:

Only fired? I would think something more would be in order. It is a documented fact from the FRTIB minutes that trading costs have went up since the trading limits were imposed. I for one do not like being held hostage to two trades per month. I would gladly pay for the priviledge to have additional trades..... on a few down days I would have paid $1000 just to have one more. :D

[clester]

We held the 1120 area again today. Will we hold on?

For a short term trade one could buy today and have a stop loss trade below Spx 1120.

could be a double bottom pattern.

[nnuut]

I remember when we only had one move a Month and that was by phone!

[clester]

I remember when we only had one move a Month and that was by phone!
Me too. Agh, those were the good ole days huh?

[nnuut]

Lost my BUTT during 911, sold low bought back in high!:sick:

[clester]

Yeah, I held all the way down too.

[KevinD]

I had no clue back then. (not that I have one now) I just kept those contributions going...

[tsptalk]

The dangers of trying to pick a bottom are obvious in a bear market - but here's the problem with not trying to pick a bottom. Remember this time last year? Market pops on Sep 1 and the boat left without the bears. It wasn't until November that there was any real opportunity... unless you chased.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/082311a.gif

[Birchtree]

I'd prefer to DCA on the downside but then again I'm humble enough to chase on the upside - I just want to own wall flowers at any price. I may get off the ice tomorrow and begin buying again.

[clester]

We held the 1120 area again today. Will we hold on?

For a short term trade one could buy today and have a stop loss trade below Spx 1120.

could be a double bottom pattern.
Things different today. Holding and climbing after Europe closed and volatility seems less or calmer. Making move today and hoping for follow through. Risk is about 2% down from here to 1120.

[clester]

Things different today. Holding and climbing after Europe closed and volatility seems less or calmer. Making move today and hoping for follow through. Risk is about 2% down from here to 1120.
So far so good. Need to clear the 1205 ish area where the last high was and then on to the 50 dma. If we don't get above the 1205 area on this run I plan on getting out. Friday's Bernanke speech is a little scary.

[jkenjohnson]

So far so good. Need to clear the 1205 ish area where the last high was and then on to the 50 dma. If we don't get above the 1205 area on this run I plan on getting out. Friday's Bernanke speech is a little scary.

I don't know you but I agree with you 100% about Barnankes' Speech.

[clester]

I wonder if traders are squaring up positions ahead of the speech because they aren't sure what he will say. Selling gold, treasuries, etc and covering shorts on stocks. And will they put the trades back on afterwards?

[JTH]

I wonder if traders are squaring up positions ahead of the speech because they aren't sure what he will say. Selling gold, treasuries, etc and covering shorts on stocks. And will they put the trades back on afterwards?

You'd think we all know there will be no QE3, but be dammed if the market doesn't want it. Benny is not the answer to our problems he's a used up pawn sacificing all he could, but the outcome is still the same. Let's get back to the real value this market should be at, if the crash is comming then "bring it on" let's get it over with.

[jkenjohnson]

You'd think we all know there will be no QE3, but be dammed if the market doesn't want it. Benny is not the answer to our problems he's a used up pawn sacificing all he could, but the outcome is still the same. Let's get back to the real value this market should be at, if the crash is comming then "bring it on" let's get it over with.

I agree. Bring it on starting tomorrow, cause I'm getting out today. Bernanke has nothing left that can help our economy.

[nnuut]

Everyone knows it's not a good idea to devalue the Dollar more with another QE session, so I think they will surely do it! QE3 get away from me!

[clester]

So far so good. Need to clear the 1205 ish area where the last high was and then on to the 50 dma. If we don't get above the 1205 area on this run I plan on getting out. Friday's Bernanke speech is a little scary.
I think today we got a confirmation of a reversal of trend, at least near term. The 10 year treasurys reversed off the low of 1.978 and gold sold off hard, which are the safety plays and we have a double bottom in s&p. To keep this going we need to top the last high about 1205.

I am optimistic but not sure how market will react Friday. If we reach 1200 range and then sell off on Bernanke speech it could be trouble. If not we could rally through labor day.

Just thinking out loud. Glad to have a plus day on entry today.

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/marc-faber-equities-could-rally-to-sp-1250

[clester]

Gold down again this morning along with other commodities. I wonder if traders think no QE will come tomorrow so they are getting out of those inflation plays. I hear most analysts now saying they don't expect any big news. That is good news I think. Low expectations, so maybe no sell the news?

[clester]

Thank you Warren Buffet. We could make a run at that 1200 level today. Also, interesting that I heard this morning that Obama wants to reduce all mortgage interest by 1% on government backed mortgages and that perhaps Bernanke may hint at this tomorrow.

[Sensei]

Thank you Warren Buffet. We could make a run at that 1200 level today. Also, interesting that I heard this morning that Obama wants to reduce all mortgage interest by 1% on government backed mortgages and that perhaps Bernanke may hint at this tomorrow.
Looks like Buffett's $5 billion investment in B of A is only helping you if you are in the C fund.

[KevinD]

Better news would be that the government get out of the mortgage business all together...but thats just me.

[clester]

Looks like Buffett's $5 billion investment in B of A is only helping you if you are in the C fund.
What a reversal. Not good for stocks. This will be a lower high. Unless we reverse, I'm out.

[clester]

Better news would be that the government get out of the mortgage business all together...but thats just me.
Yeah, but that won't happen. I was looking at refi rates and if I could get my rate reduced to 4% that would be great. In any case, it would be a big boost to the economy by slowing down foreclosures and giving folks more money to spend. I hope they do it.

[RealMoneyIssues]

I hope they do it.
Then they could take over the oil companies operations, then take the rest of the insurance companies and auto companies...

NOT

[clester]

Initial reaction to no QE3 not good. Let's see how it plays out. I plan on holding until 1125 area. I keep hearing the problem is still Europe. Perhaps some shorts will cover before the weekend.

[RealMoneyIssues]

Initial reaction to no QE3 not good. Let's see how it plays out. I plan on holding until 1125 area. I keep hearing the problem is still Europe. Perhaps some shorts will cover before the weekend.

I am watching the R2K and it is making a big bull run... maybe the bulls aren't on vacation?

[clester]

I am watching the R2K and it is making a big bull run... maybe the bulls aren't on vacation?
It's interesting. Almost always , the initial response is reversed. I think this is a very positive sign for stocks.

[RealMoneyIssues]

It's interesting. Almost always , the initial response is reversed. I think this is a very positive sign for stocks.
I certainly hope so...

[clester]

It's interesting. Almost always , the initial response is reversed. I think this is a very positive sign for stocks.
It's a long day ahead but if by chance we could get to 1180 for a higher high, we would be off to the races. With the volatility it's possible. 1125 is the line in the sand for me. We need help from Europe.

[clester]

It's a long day ahead but if by chance we could get to 1180 for a higher high, we would be off to the races. With the volatility it's possible. 1125 is the line in the sand for me. We need help from Europe.
I think we may have till after labor day to rally as long as EU holds on. When congress comes back it could be trouble. Maybe Bernanke will provide a kick in the pants to congress with this speech but I doubt it.

[clester]

It's a long day ahead but if by chance we could get to 1180 for a higher high, we would be off to the races. With the volatility it's possible. 1125 is the line in the sand for me. We need help from Europe.
We could make it today! It may be as high as 1185 or so to be a clear higher high. Got my fingers crossed.

[clester]

We could make it today! It may be as high as 1185 or so to be a clear higher high. Got my fingers crossed.
Ok, maybe we make it today. I think the relief rally will continue through Labor day. Markets usually go against trend around holidays. Expectations for economic numbers are low, so any positive signs could help rally. Sentiment is very negative, so that's a positive. We need the EU to be quiet.

The problems will start again when congress gets back and in the news again. Probably a good time to sell.

IMO.

[clester]

Ok, maybe we make it today. I think the relief rally will continue through Labor day. Markets usually go against trend around holidays. Expectations for economic numbers are low, so any positive signs could help rally. Sentiment is very negative, so that's a positive. We need the EU to be quiet.

The problems will start again when congress gets back and in the news again. Probably a good time to sell.

IMO.
If we were able to get above 1206 or so and make a new near term high, I think there would be huge short covering. Light volume this week should help the bulls unless EU rears it's ugly head.

I would be surprised if that happens today, but maybe soon. There will be some resistance around 1200.

[tsptalk]

Ok, maybe we make it today. I think the relief rally will continue through Labor day. Markets usually go against trend around holidays. Expectations for economic numbers are low, so any positive signs could help rally. Sentiment is very negative, so that's a positive. We need the EU to be quiet.

The problems will start again when congress gets back and in the news again. Probably a good time to sell.

IMO.
I agree that the holiday is making this a tough call. We could see whatever happens this week, reverse next week.

As far as sentiment goes, we were actually very close to a sell signal in last week's sentiment survey. We had one into the middle of the trading day last Thursday. If it wasn't for the big negative reversal on Thursday (when we took the survey) we would have got it (sell signal). I think if we took the survey on Wed or Fri of last week instead, we would have got it. Today's strength would probably also put the bull / bear ratio well over the 1 to 1 sell signal.

The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio "sentiment" is still very bearish, however.

[clester]

I agree that the holiday is making this a tough call. We could see whatever happens this week, reverse next week.

As far as sentiment goes, we were actually very close to a sell signal in last week's sentiment survey. We had one into the middle of the trading day last Thursday. If it wasn't for the big negative reversal on Thursday (when we took the survey) we would have got it (sell signal). I think if we took the survey on Wed or Fri of last week instead, we would have got it. Today's strength would probably also put the bull / bear ratio well over the 1 to 1 sell signal.

The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio "sentiment" is still very bearish, however.
So are the talking heads. Seems most folks here are nit in stocks either.

[FundSurfer]

I hate how this two trade thing has to play inot my thinking. I jumped in and we have had a nice bounce. I am looking for an exit. I would like to ride to Thursday or Friday but if I bail to G by Wednesday (31st of August) I don't waste a September trade. What a horrible way to have to work this system we are stuck with.

[clester]

I agree fundsurfer. You used to make great trades when we had unlimited. (I'm sure you still do). We are at the Point where we fail in this rally or its off to the races. I would like to hold till next week.

[clester]

We made a new near term high and that has started a new trend. It's a long way down to make a new lower low. So, I expect a little pull back and then make a new near term high above 1210. I will stay with the trade until we make a new lower low, I think, but I may lock in gains and get back in after pull back when we get new trades on Sept 1.

I am thinking maybe getting out cob Wednesday like fundsurfer suggested and get back in on pullback in Sept. Especially if we rally more. Just hate to use up trades :(

[clester]

I hate how this two trade thing has to play inot my thinking. I jumped in and we have had a nice bounce. I am looking for an exit. I would like to ride to Thursday or Friday but if I bail to G by Wednesday (31st of August) I don't waste a September trade. What a horrible way to have to work this system we are stuck with.
Have you decided?

[clester]

I think the bears are getting frustrated. They have tried to sell this morning but are losing their advantage. We could have more short covering or just buying. We have lots of room up to the 50 dma. That's my next target.

I would like to hold at least through Friday. I heard we may get a negative print on jobs Friday though ( low expectations are good) and I could save a trade if I exit tomorrow. When Obama speaks it seems the market goes down but maybe next week will be different.

[clester]

Anybody surprised consumer confidence is low? It is at the level of last crash of April/may 09. We bounced up from there.

Will we bounce off this sell off today? I think so. We'll see.

[FundSurfer]

Have you decided?

I'll probably decide on Wednesday morning. I have to admit that I'm leaning toward the sidelines. There are too many things that could rattle the markets right now and cause a selloff - Euro troubles, congressmen spouting battle plans, Syria, oil, another hurricane, etc...

Like the saying goes...stay away till October.

[FundSurfer]

.... You used to make great trades when we had unlimited. (I'm sure you still do)....

I quit posting my moves for several reasons: 1. I travel and do not always have the luxury of being able to post my moves to the tracker. I missed posting a bunch of moves to the tracker which causes problems trying to get the tracker lined back up with my actual position. I keep my own spreadsheet anyway. 2. I pay for a service that I follow mostly, so out of respect for that service I don't post. I say mostly cause I still try to take advantage of certain setups I see. 3. This board is watched by the the TSP Board. I'm still ticked. I don't think they pay much attention anymore but they have in the past mined this message board for information that then got used against us. That isn't this messageboard's fault, but it does stick in the back of my mind.

Besides, you've done really well too. Just cause I don't post to the tracker does not mean that I don't pay attention. After all, I kept the tracker by hand for a long time. I'm very thankful that it eventually got it's own online widget. It was tough to keep track of the 50 or 60 that I tracked. Now the number is over 200 and growing.

[Intrepid_Timer]

After all, I kept the tracker by hand for a long time. I'm very thankful that it eventually got it's own online widget. It was tough to keep track of the 50 or 60 that I tracked. Now the number is over 200 and growing.

Awe, the good old days...............;) There use to be some really good "debates" here didn't there?

[clester]

I quit posting my moves for several reasons: 1. I travel and do not always have the luxury of being able to post my moves to the tracker. I missed posting a bunch of moves to the tracker which causes problems trying to get the tracker lined back up with my actual position. I keep my own spreadsheet anyway. 2. I pay for a service that I follow mostly, so out of respect for that service I don't post. I say mostly cause I still try to take advantage of certain setups I see. 3. This board is watched by the the TSP Board. I'm still ticked. I don't think they pay much attention anymore but they have in the past mined this message board for information that then got used against us. That isn't this messageboard's fault, but it does stick in the back of my mind.

Besides, you've done really well too. Just cause I don't post to the tracker does not mean that I don't pay attention. After all, I kept the tracker by hand for a long time. I'm very thankful that it eventually got it's own online widget. It was tough to keep track of the 50 or 60 that I tracked. Now the number is over 200 and growing.
You don't need a service. You are one of the best at playing the tsp. You should start your own.

[nasa1974]

I'll probably decide on Wednesday morning. I have to admit that I'm leaning toward the sidelines. There are too many things that could rattle the markets right now and cause a selloff - Euro troubles, congressmen spouting battle plans, Syria, oil, another hurricane, etc...

Like the saying goes...stay away till October.

FundSurfer nice to see your moving through looking for some easy snacks. :D I also agree that the FRTIB has really handcuffed us and made it more difficult to maintain our TSP in these turbulent times.

[nasa1974]

Awe, the good old days...............;) There use to be some really good "debates" here didn't there?

IT, there have been some great debates in the past.

[clester]

The melt up seems to be frustrating those bears. EU up today will help us. If news over there stays quiet we may keep the trend up. I am eyeing that 50 dma.

[clester]

The melt up seems to be frustrating those bears. EU up today will help us. If news over there stays quiet we may keep the trend up. I am eyeing that 50 dma.
50 dma is at 1256.

[FundSurfer]

Awe, the good old days...............;) There use to be some really good "debates" here didn't there?

Yep. No sense crying over spilt milk though.

[MacDaddy]

Milk...... Pun intended?? ;)

[clester]

August is over. Now, what happens next month? I am still looking at the 50 dma. It may be a good place to sell. It's really not too far away. I think we will get there.

[clester]

August is over. Now, what happens next month? I am still looking at the 50 dma. It may be a good place to sell. It's really not too far away. I think we will get there.
So far, it looks like bears continue to be frustrated and market keeps climbing. The news isn't terrible but bad enough to warrant some action by the Fed. It seems volatility is much lower. That is good.

I am still thinking of getting out at the 50 dma and wait to see if we get above it before getting back in.

[Birchtree]

Sam Stovall thinks we'll have a counter-trend rally for September - I'm staying long and strong.

[clester]

Well the trade limitations for tsp got me again. I almost got out on the 31st but decided to go into September with moneynin stocks so I would have maximum trades during the month. As it turns out it has cost me in the short term. Thanks a lot tsp board!

Anyway, some follow through to the down side this morning before the jobs report. EU has reared its ugly head again. I think 1180 maybe 1160 at the lowest would be my exit point. 1130 is the break of the uptrend for sure but that is a long way down.

Would a bad jobs report really be good for stocks? We will see soon.

[FundSurfer]

We knew a sell off was coming today. Traders don't want to be holding over this long weekend. Too much risk of stuff happening somewhere in the world. Add to that the fact that politicians like to announce bad news on Friday afternoon before a long holiday weekend. They hope it gets buried in the news and it usually does. I don't know what will get announced this afternoon, only that it will. Add to this that the President speaks before congress next week. People are unsure how the market will react. Most likely badly because the D's and the R's can agree on anything right now. No matter what the Prez says, count on the R's to poo poo his ideas. That is not good for the market.

Now, if I was you, I'd be hard pressed to decide whether to ride out the next few days or jump ship. It would be an easy decision with more trades - Jump out. You actually have not lost a trade. If you jump out, you can still jump back in and still have the option to go to G fund. I'm out. I can jump it and jump out to G and poof my trades are gone too. So even though I got out on Wednesday, we are in the same boat - kinda. I'm soo glad that I did not think about that on Wednesday cause I would have waited till Thursday to jump out.

[cak165]

What would it take to lobby for more (or unlimited) trades again?

[jpcavin]

What would it take to lobby for more (or unlimited) trades again?
Read this and see if you still want to fight this battle. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSPTALK

[nasa1974]

Read this and see if you still want to fight this battle. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSPTALK

I would't disagree with that article. I am not a big fan of Wikipedia however.

[clester]

Well, Europe down about 5% today and our futures down about 2%.

Europe just keeps rearing its head and knocking our markets down. We have some possible help this week if Trichet lowers rates thursday and possibly an announcement from Fed if things get bad to take some action. Maybe an oversold bounce.

I have a bad feeling though.

[clester]

Well, Europe down about 5% today and our futures down about 2%.

Europe just keeps rearing its head and knocking our markets down. We have some possible help this week if Trichet lowers rates thursday and possibly an announcement from Fed if things get bad to take some action. Maybe an oversold bounce.

I have a bad feeling though.
Can't quite explain it but I have reversed my feeling about the market and I expect a turnaround today. We may finish positive. If I had the guts to listen my gut (no pun intended) I would buy in today with my other 50%.

[clester]

Can't quite explain it but I have reversed my feeling about the market and I expect a turnaround today. We may finish positive. If I had the guts to listen my gut (no pun intended) I would buy in today with my other 50%.
Wow. I impressed myself. Didn't go positive but a nice turnaround. I'll take it.

I didn't buy more today but I may if it looks like we will hold. It's so "doom and gloom" out there. The news is terrible. Europe is in the tank. US is broke. Political wrangling. Banks getting sued. No jobs anywhere.

Boy, I feel bullish.

[dpmp]

What would it take to lobby for more (or unlimited) trades again?

Uhhh... Prolly an arm and a leg.

I think they want your money in place so that you have the illusion of winning, while they use your money doing something else. :D

[RealMoneyIssues]

I think they want your money in place so that you have the illusion of winning, while they use your money doing something else. :D

Who are you talking about Congress, or the TSP board?

[clester]

Can't quite explain it but I have reversed my feeling about the market and I expect a turnaround today. We may finish positive. If I had the guts to listen my gut (no pun intended) I would buy in today with my other 50%.
Shoulda bought today. Maybe I will tomorrow. I think we go up this week.

[cak165]

Shoulda bought today. Maybe I will tomorrow. I think we go up this week.

Just because the sentiment is negative, is it your gut again, or do you think the European issues will go away soon? I have a feeling there's a mini crash that will be orchestrated sometime this week or early next, just to force Bernanke's hand with QE3 at the Sept. meeting...

[clester]

Just because the sentiment is negative, is it your gut again, or do you think the European issues will go away soon? I have a feeling there's a mini crash that will be orchestrated sometime this week or early next, just to force Bernanke's hand with QE3 at the Sept. meeting...
Europe will be back. There are plenty of reasons for the market to go down.

[clester]

Europe will be back. There are plenty of reasons for the market to go down.
The 1140 area is the new stop loss in s & p. The uptrend is still in place but the question is will we take out the previous high. If we don't then we may sell off and get that crash.

So, I'm looking for a new high. Risk is down to 1140.

[clester]

Can't quite explain it but I have reversed my feeling about the market and I expect a turnaround today. We may finish positive. If I had the guts to listen my gut (no pun intended) I would buy in today with my other 50%.Shoulda listened to my gut.

[Birchtree]

Fundamentals, I don't trade on fundamentals, I trade on luck. And today it's very rewarding.

[clester]

Fundamentals, I don't trade on fundamentals, I trade on luck. And today it's very rewarding.
Fundamentals in this kind of market mean nothing. Luck is really just the result of doing the right things to put yourself in the right position at the right time.

IMO, The last high 1230 is now the goal. If we don't make it above it then time to get out. The 50 dma is coming down to about 1245. That will be another place to sell if not topped.

[clester]

Fundamentals, I don't trade on fundamentals, I trade on luck. And today it's very rewarding.
Maybe I'll get lucky tonight ;)

[TSPNotley]

When I saw that S fund was falling I went 100% S fund last Friday [effective yesterday.] It landed on the 20 day moving average. I hoped that Tuesday's market would find support there but it fell and then rose: ending 0.53% down. It went up 2% by 11:30 today and with the current volatility, I got out at my monthly target of 3% [3.34%]. Moved 100% into the F fund for the expected 15% fall through later in the month. Hoping to get an additional 1.4% in the F fund. Good Luck.

[clester]

When I saw that S fund was falling I went 100% S fund last Friday [effective yesterday.] It landed on the 20 day moving average. I hoped that Tuesday's market would find support there but it fell and then rose: ending 0.53% down. It went up 2% by 11:30 today and with the current volatility, I got out at my monthly target of 3% [3.34%]. Moved 100% into the F fund for the expected 15% fall through later in the month. Hoping to get an additional 1.4% in the F fund. Good Luck.
3% a month would be great. Good luck.

[clester]

I have that bad feeling again. If we open down like the futures show and stay down before noon, i think that will be our lower high. Of course, with our trading restrictions we have to make an early decision and things could reverse in the afternoon.

I am leaning toward the downside. Congress back in the news is bad.

[clester]

We did get a higher high of 1204 yesterday so that keeps the trend up. Today will be pivotable. If we don't top 1204 today then we will have a lower high.

[clester]

So, here we are again. Where will the bounce be? 1120? 1050? I think first we watch and wait.

[clester]

S fund is on verge of breaking down. Almost to lows again. S&p 1120 and 1100 are key. Tempted to buy today but I have learned not to try and catch a falling knife.

[clester]

So, we have bounced again at key levels. I'm thinking we may continue up through Friday. What do you think fundsurfer?