Will you participate in a premium service?

[weatherweenie]

If you are currently in a TSPtalk premium service will you continue to pay for the service in the coming years?

[weatherweenie]

As a first time premium subscriber I have wondered if it was 'just me' that wondered if it was worth paying for investment advice. I know I followed Ebb, before it became a premium service, and then saw his advice falter after becoming a premium service. I expressed the same concern to IT. Now, I am stuck with a huge loss on TNA, so yeah, some of this might be construed as sour grapes. But, when you are charging for your advice, you open yourself up to more scrutiny.

[Intrepid_Timer]

August 3rd, 2011: Intrepid_Timer's return 4.83% S fund return 0.75%. What, no poll?

July 29th 2011, TNA/TZA YTD return: 16.86% DZK/DPK YTD return: 55.12% FAS/FAZ YTD return: 42.50%

Didn't see a poll then either...............:rolleyes:

Every trade has risks involved. One needs to determine if it is worth the risk or if they should just sit in the G fund or buy-and-hold the C,S or I funds. Some are not going to be happy no matter what.

[weatherweenie]

August 3rd, 2011: Intrepid_Timer's return 4.83% S fund return 0.75%. What, no poll?

July 29th 2011, TNA/TZA YTD return: 16.86% DZK/DPK YTD return: 55.12% FAS/FAZ YTD return: 42.50%

Didn't see a poll then either...............:rolleyes:

Every trade has risks involved. One needs to determine if it is worth the risk or if they should just sit in the G fund or buy-and-hold the C,S or I funds. Some are not going to be happy no matter what.

As I told you via PM this isn't just about your service. I have co-workers equally fed up with the pay for services they use. TV and radio gurus have been caught by suprise too.

If you want to go back and pick and choose your timeframes that's fine. The fact of the matter is, here and now, your July 26th buy signal put some people in TNA at $80+. Fortunately I was right to question that move, as TNA has touched $45 for a $35/share loss. That works out to a 44%, or more, loss. There's no positive spin that can be put on that kind of carnage.

[jkenjohnson]

As a first time premium subscriber I have wondered if it was 'just me' that wondered if it was worth paying for investment advice. I know I followed Ebb, before it became a premium service, and then saw his advice falter after becoming a premium service. I expressed the same concern to IT. Now, I am stuck with a huge loss on TNA, so yeah, some of this might be construed as sour grapes. But, when you are charging for your advice, you open yourself up to more scrutiny.


At first, I followed the Sentiment Survey and did pretty well. However, it has dropped to about -5% as of Friday. It does well as long as we don't have "monkey wrenches" thrown in. I now use I_T and Sentiment Survey to make my trades. I was +7% YTD until the recent downward spiral. I think it is good to look at more than one system to make up your mind. My 2 cents worth. Oh yeah, $20/month is nothing if it makes you money.

[Intrepid_Timer]

As I told you via PM this isn't just about your service. I have co-workers equally fed up with the pay for services they use. TV and radio gurus have been caught by suprise too.

If you want to go back and pick and choose your timeframes that's fine. The fact of the matter is, here and now, your July 26th buy signal put some people in TNA at $80+. Fortunately I was right to question that move, as TNA has touched $45 for a $35/share loss. That works out to a 44%, or more, loss. There's no positive spin that can be put on that kind of carnage.

I'm not putting timeframes on anything, you are by posting this poll now. That's all I'm getting at. The four trades prior to that wrong signal on my part were up 49%.

[tsptalk]

As I told you via PM this isn't just about your service. I have co-workers equally fed up with the pay for services they use. TV and radio gurus have been caught by suprise too.

I agree that there seems to be something to effectiveness of a system when many people jump on board. I read about this phenomenon but thought with our small community it would not work that way, but it does seem to be the case.

Fear and greed play a big role because people will jump on a system because it is "the hot hand", and they are quick to cancel once the system inevitably hits a cold patch. Then the cycle starts over (usually). This almost guarantees under-performing for the system follower.

A service like Trader Fred has a decent following and a great track record but because he is not aggressive and doesn't have big flashy short-term returns like an Ebb or I_T system can provide during good streaks, his membership counts have remained steady rather than fluctuate. He has a pretty loyal following.

My point is, the "fed up" subscribers are probably expecting something that is unrealistic, and / or they are not willing to accept the inevitable draw downs of a system. During weak periods, they believe their "guesses" and predictions are just as good. I am guilty of this myself.

If you ever did any serious gambling in a casino you know that the house has an advantage and in the long run they will get their X% of return on the total amount being waged, depending on the game, and it is not a huge percentage.

Inevitably, and occasionally, a gambler has a streak of luck and takes the casino for a big chunk of money. The casino does not shut their doors because someone beat the odds. Instead they try to keep that gambler around because they know that gambler is likely to give it back, because that's what the odds say.

So, if a system has some kind of a small advantage on the market, it doesn't mean it will beat the market every day, every month, or even every year. But if there is an advantage, it will make more money in the long run than someone who does not follow a system that has an edge. Those who close the casino doors every time the market beats them won't be around when the gambler comes back in to give back his lucky winnings.

So, if someone wants to follow a system because it is hot and has big numbers in the short term, they are not likely to be around after things get cold. Ironically, that usually means the system is about to start another strong period. That has just been one of the great learning experiences I have had over the last several years.

This isn't a promo, but rather an example... Since Trader Fred's System has been around (5 years from 2007-2011) It has a return of +31.75% while the C-fund is down 6.53%. This is phenominal, but because the system has no flashy bells and whistles, the "fed up" subscribers probably didn't get what they really wanted - which is excitement. If they did try Fred's service, they probably cancelled during a period where it missed a rally or something.

These are the same people that will cancel an I_T service during a down period. I have seen it over and over, and like I said, I am guilty of this myself. Some will come back after the next strong period (which they will have missed.)

The real problem is our battle with ourselves. I would have added the Ebb System in the above paragraph, but unfortunately I really believe the TSP limits have made that successful winning system much less effective.

[weatherweenie]

I'm not putting timeframes on anything, you are by posting this poll now. That's all I'm getting at. The four trades prior to that wrong signal on my part were up 49%.

Yes, I posted the poll now. I have had this feeling for most of the year. This latest mis-step brought my feelings to a head, and I wanted to know if I was alone in this feeling. I can't reiterate enough, that this poll has to do with ALL of the premium services, though I only subscribe to yours, IT.

Maybe I'm to blame? The only time I have followed your TNA/TZA calls have been losing trades.

Regardless of past performance, there is no way to sugar coat the most recent buy signals.

[weatherweenie]

The real problem is our battle with ourselves. I would have added the Ebb System in the above paragraph, but unfortunately I really believe the TSP limits have made that successful winning system much less effective.

So true.

I would have sold the day after the 500pt Dow drop regardless of what anyone else said, since the market didn't rebound appreciably. But, the TSP limits kept me in thinking, if I sell now, I'm out the rest of the month.

Right now staying in might not be the best strategy as the losses are piling up, but if we do rebound the second half of the month, I would be on the sidelines with locked in losses.

Thanks Greg Long, you f'n jackwagon!

[jkenjohnson]

Two more cents worth. Any of these systems, Sentiment Survey, I_T....... is better than my system. That is why I use them. If I had my own system that was better, I would use it.

[k0nkuzh0n]

So true.

I would have sold the day after the 500pt Dow drop regardless of what anyone else said, since the market didn't rebound appreciably. But, the TSP limits kept me in thinking, if I sell now, I'm out the rest of the month.

Right now staying in might not be the best strategy as the losses are piling up, but if we do rebound the second half of the month, I would be on the sidelines with locked in losses.

Thanks Greg Long, you f'n jackwagon!

I'm in the same exact boat. Got in as soon as I could august first. I would have been out August 3rd, cutting my losses after the S&P closed below its 200 EMA and failed to rebound the next day but to lock myself out of a market,with a loss, for an entire month, proved too difficult. Would have missed both of huge down days and has cost me over 14% so far.

From #2 on the tracker to almost flat for the year =(. Although I did meet my primary goal of passing RDJ67 =/

[JTH]

Positon sizing and stops are manditory, if you took a big hit in an actively managed account then something went wrong and that's not IT's fault. All trading systems give false signals, every single one, none are exempt. As for the TSP premium services there is a curse on them, always has been. It's the same curse on many trading systems where backtested data and future data do not yield the same results. Creating a system within the TSP environment is difficult to do in the short-intermediate term so with that you have to accept unforseen risk. I've had two systems give false buys signals over the last month, but this is because these systems are designed for a bull market uptrends, not this crap we are going through now.

I'm not voting in the poll, it's rude to air your dirty laundry in public I wouldn't want one of my systems subjected to the pitch fork mob. If you don't like the service then don't use it.

[weatherweenie]

Positon sizing and stops are manditory, if you took a big hit in an actively managed account then something went wrong and that's not IT's fault. All trading systems give false signals, every single one, none are exempt. As for the TSP premium services there is a curse on them, always has been. It's the same curse on many trading systems where backtested data and future data do not yield the same results. Creating a system within the TSP environment is difficult to do in the short-intermediate term so with that you have to accept unforseen risk. I've had two systems give false buys signals over the last month, but this is because these systems are designed for a bull market uptrends, not this crap we are going through now.

I'm not voting in the poll, it's rude to air your dirty laundry in public I wouldn't want one of my systems subjected to the pitch fork mob. If you don't like the service then don't use it.

I respect your position to not vote, and to not subject your system to the public.

Those who have decided to go public by default have chosen to open themselves up to public commentary, whether it is good or bad.

I personally had enough of the excuses why a particular signal didn't work as planned. If a call didn't work, man up and admit it was a bad call. I also don't care for the belittling of other member's calls. Namely James' P&F Chart call of 1140, which happened to be more accurate than we all would have liked.

As they say, if you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

[Intrepid_Timer]

I respect your position to not vote, and to not subject your system to the public.

Those who have decided to go public by default have chosen to open themselves up to public commentary, whether it is good or bad.

I personally had enough of the excuses why a particular signal didn't work as planned. If a call didn't work, man up and admit it was a bad call. I also don't care for the belittling of other member's calls. Namely James' P&F Chart call of 1140, which happened to be more accurate than we all would have liked.

As they say, if you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

The true character of a man is shown not by how many times he falls, but by how many times he gets up after falling and not just laying there sniffling like a like a little child looking for others to comfort them.

These "excuses" as you call them are actually my opinion as to why things are going as they are. I guess on my commentaries I should just write "I lost money today, bad call, deal with it"?

I don't recall anyone belittling James's P&F chart forecast of 1140 for the S&P 500. When I was asked what my opinion of this was on August 4th, I simply stated that his YTD return at the time was -7.59%, nothing more, nothing less. If you saw this as belittling, then something might be wrong with your medulla oblongata.

Just so you know, my system gives buy and sell signals based on the indicators I use and my proprietary timing patterns. What you do with those signals is your own business. Since you feel inclined to discuss what I say in my premium thread on a public thread, allow me to remind you of a couple things you have said recently:

On 08/04/2011 in reference to the question "Where are all the dip buyers?" you replied "Did my part at the close yesterday, then screwed up my courage, or stupidity, and doubled down today."

On 08/05/2011 after I mentioned "History is full of short term periods of exceptional weakness followed by periods of extreme gains" you replied "Which is why, much as it pains me, I'm holding onto the TNA I have. Unfortunately I have the sinking feeling I will be given the opportunity to average down, again. Much as it also pains me, I am trying to have a Birchtree-esque approach and welcoming the pain."

I guess the pain was all my fault also.................

[weatherweenie]

The true character of a man is shown not by how many times he falls, but by how many times he gets up after falling and not just laying there sniffling like a like a little child looking for others to comfort them.

These "excuses" as you call them are actually my opinion as to why things are going as they are. I guess on my commentaries I should just write "I lost money today, bad call, deal with it"?

I don't recall anyone belittling James's P&F chart forecast of 1140 for the S&P 500. When I was asked what my opinion of this was on August 4th, I simply stated that his YTD return at the time was -7.59%, nothing more, nothing less. If you saw this as belittling, then something might be wrong with your medulla oblongata.

Just so you know, my system gives buy and sell signals based on the indicators I use and my proprietary timing patterns. What you do with those signals is your own business. Since you feel inclined to discuss what I say in my premium thread on a public thread, allow me to remind you of a couple things you have said recently:

On 08/04/2011 in reference to the question "Where are all the dip buyers?" you replied "Did my part at the close yesterday, then screwed up my courage, or stupidity, and doubled down today."

On 08/05/2011 after I mentioned "History is full of short term periods of exceptional weakness followed by periods of extreme gains" you replied "Which is why, much as it pains me, I'm holding onto the TNA I have. Unfortunately I have the sinking feeling I will be given the opportunity to average down, again. Much as it also pains me, I am trying to have a Birchtree-esque approach and welcoming the pain."

I guess the pain was all my fault also.................

If you want to believe your statement of James' return at the time of your reply was nothing more than an innocent observation, go ahead. It sure came across as you saying James was off his rocker, and why should anyone believe him since he's so far down the tracker.

Yeah, maybe he pulled a blind squirrel and finally found a nut, but let's face it, this time he was right.

The market is news driven. Always has been, always will be. We can't sit back and say, I would have been right, if the news weren't so bad. The issue I, and many others have, with your approach is the apparent unwilliness to admit defeat. While Rev Shark admitted something to the effect, it's time to step aside and let this thing play out, you were stubbornly holding onto a losing trade that worsened with time. Yeah, some of that is 20-20 hindsight, but come on.

As to my statements, I made them, and I was wrong. I can admit that. What you conveniently left out is that I asked you, if you could would you buy more TNA after it had dropped into the low 60s. You said yes, you would, if you had the funds. I definitely knew better than to buy in on your July 26th buy, non-buy, signal when TNA was in the low 80s based on the lower highs and lower lows it was putting in.

I'm just thankful that I have gone my out on my own and am outperforming some of the premium services. I am by no means pleased with my returns though!

Again, this isn't just me who is disatisfied with the premium services in general.

[Birchtree]

I regard myself as fortunate not to be involved in this conversation.

[Intrepid_Timer]

If you want to believe your statement of James' return at the time of your reply was nothing more than an innocent observation, go ahead. It sure came across as you saying James was off his rocker, and why should anyone believe him since he's so far down the tracker.

Yeah, maybe he pulled a blind squirrel and finally found a nut, but let's face it, this time he was right.

The market is news driven. Always has been, always will be. We can't sit back and say, I would have been right, if the news weren't so bad. The issue I, and many others have, with your approach is the apparent unwilliness to admit defeat. While Rev Shark admitted something to the effect, it's time to step aside and let this thing play out, you were stubbornly holding onto a losing trade that worsened with time. Yeah, some of that is 20-20 hindsight, but come on.

As to my statements, I made them, and I was wrong. I can admit that. What you conveniently left out is that I asked you, if you could would you buy more TNA after it had dropped into the low 60s. You said yes, you would, if you had the funds. I definitely knew better than to buy in on your July 26th buy, non-buy, signal when TNA was in the low 80s based on the lower highs and lower lows it was putting in.

I'm just thankful that I have gone my out on my own and am outperforming some of the premium services. I am by no means pleased with my returns though!

Again, this isn't just me who is disatisfied with the premium services in general.

Just stating fact. You can admit defeat anytime you like. I've already said I would probably exit this trade losing money, but I wasn't exiting yesterday and it won't be today.

You asked my opinion and I gave it. This is a site for TSP but I provide information for outside sources as a courtesy. If you would like me to hold your hand and show you step by step how I trade my ETF's, it will cost you a bit more than $20 per month.

Just so you know, I just sold my TNA positions and plan on buying them back after today's dip, most likely after the Fed's announcement because I have faith today's confirmation of a buy signal will last at least a few days. I hope you do sell your position to prove me wrong...........

What I said in reply to the question is exactly what I said, not everyone thinks like you I'm sure. The P&F chart thing has been in the G fund since March. Was bound to be right eventually. If James had more faith in it, he would follow it, would he not?

I'm glad you are taking it upon yourself to speak for the disgruntled masses who are not happy with my service. I hope you are able to lead them to where they want to go. I obviously can't according to you.

Good luck to you. I am done with this conversation and your cat-calls from the balcony............toodles.

[Murphys_Law]

Just stating fact. You can admit defeat anytime you like. I've already said I would probably exit this trade losing money, but I wasn't exiting yesterday and it won't be today.

You asked my opinion and I gave it. This is a site for TSP but I provide information for outside sources as a courtesy. If you would like me to hold your hand and show you step by step how I trade my ETF's, it will cost you a bit more than $20 per month.

Just so you know, I just sold my TNA positions and plan on buying them back after today's dip, most likely after the Fed's announcement because I have faith today's confirmation of a buy signal will last at least a few days. I hope you do sell your position to prove me wrong...........

What I said in reply to the question is exactly what I said, not everyone thinks like you I'm sure. The P&F chart thing has been in the G fund since March. Was bound to be right eventually. If James had more faith in it, he would follow it, would he not?

I'm glad you are taking it upon yourself to speak for the disgruntled masses who are not happy with my service. I hope you are able to lead them to where they want to go. I obviously can't according to you.

Good luck to you. I am done with this conversation and your cat-calls from the balcony............toodles.

Last time I checked, I am the one who submits the buy or sell order. That is of course, I am able to access the damn TSP site.

[Intrepid_Timer]

Just so you know, I just sold my TNA positions and plan on buying them back after today's dip, most likely after the Fed's announcement because I have faith today's confirmation of a buy signal will last at least a few days. I hope you do sell your position to prove me wrong...........

Just bought them back. Did you sell yet?

[weatherweenie]

Just bought them back. Did you sell yet?

Nope, fortunately I am in a position where I can ride this out, for years if need be.

Does your sell then re-buy constitute staying long?

[Intrepid_Timer]

Nope, fortunately I am in a position where I can ride this out, for years if need be.

Does your sell then re-buy constitute staying long?

Sorry sir, I can not answer that question here.

[tsptalk]

OK, everyone. Thanks for playing.