Wheels' Account Talk

[tsptalk]

We'll use this topic to talk about Wheels' transactions and account strategy.

Wheels-
You've played this rebound really well. Nice job! I really like that you are getting out for Friday. You picked up the gains and are now protecting them from an uncertain situation.

Tom


PS. Anyone else whostarts an account topic as wheels did, please also create an "name Account Talk" like this one so we can talk about it without cluttering up your account thread.

Thanks!

[tsptalk]

From Wheels' Account - Well, I played that about as wrong as I could. Jobs were huge, and previous months were revised up. Bond prices fell through the floor immediately. The futures market wen't straight up. Going into today I was at about 7.5% for the year (exactly.73% ahead of the S fund) and feeling pretty good about myself. Today should change that dramatically.

Dave

Sure, bonds will come down Dave, but on a percentage basis, nothing too dramatic (compared to what a bad day in stockscan do). Also, don't be too sure about the stock market. We've had a nice run up into this report and now there will be interest rate concerns.

Tom

[Wheels]

I'm not so sure the percentage return will be so small. I'd bet the F went down today +/- a percent. Plus the almost percent I lost by not being in the C and S today. Pretty much goes down as just about the worst one day allocation manuever ever. The I fund was flat today so I'm hoping your I fund strategy will help get me back into the game on Monday.

Dave

[tsptalk]

Yeah, worse than I thought on the bonds, like you said down about .75 - 1%. But you made nearly 6% in the last week being in stocks. I'd take that trade off. I haven't even made that penny in the G fund yet. :)

[smine]

So the clarify today's activity....if you were already in C, S or I you proably did VERY well based on increases in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq? We who moved more heavily into C and S by today's deadline will benefit from today's activityand/or will webe in good positions for Monday's opening? I tried looking at Frizz B.'s strategy and got cross-eyed! Glad it works for him. Maybe I'm not thenumbers crunching type, other than watching it increase!!! :)

[tsptalk]

We who moved more heavily into C and S by today's deadline will benefit from today's activity and/or will we be in good positions for Monday's opening?
Your new allocation takes affect Monday if you transferred Friday morning.

[tsptalk]

Wheels, I don't know if you saw what we were talking about in zbwmy's account talk, but if you can update your post or delete your other posts and start over, with the share price (Start over usingFriday's closingprice, let's forget about that one day "blunder") and a $100,000 account balance. Some thing like this...

Effective date 3/5/04

50% C,starting share price = 12.01

50% I,starting share price = 13.60

Starting balance = $100,000

Current balance = $100,000

If you want me to do it let me know. Then if you make a change, figure out the share appreciation / depreciation and the new balance.

Tom

[Wheels]

Sounds cool. I'll try to keep up with it but if I don't feel free to update mine. I'll make you know of any allocation changes.

I don't know how to delete posts but feel free to delete my other Wheels thread or move the posts into here or whatever you like.

BTW - Where's Tom's account?

Dave

[tsptalk]

Tom's account = http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html :)

[Wheels]

Well, another one day move that didn't work out too well. I'll be initiating a transfer today (effective tomorrow) into the C and the S (50/50). It's going to take a lot to get me out of there before Memorial day.

Dave

[Wheels]

50,000 in C + .75% = 50,375

50,000 in I + .37% = 50,185

Current account balance = 100,560

Effective tomorrow 50% C 50% S (50,280 each)

Dave

(Tom, check my math, and, feel free to edit this into any format you like)

[NatX]

Wheels wrote:


50,000 in C + .75% = 50,375

50,000 in I + .37% = 50,185
Okay. My brain is not functioning today. What does the .75% and .37 represent?

[tsptalk]

Those were the percentage gains for the C and I fund on Monday.

[Wheels]

50,375 in C - .17% = 50,289

50,185 in S - .88% = 49,743

Account Balance = 100,032

Dave

[Frizz B.]

I put you funds on my spread sheet and I have you for a little more money. In the C fund you have 4163.1970 shares. You are really close to the amt. that I have. April 5 $50375, April 6, $50260. In The S fund you have 3720.2380 shares which gives you April 5, $50291 and April 6, $49814 = $100105.

[Wheels]

Sounds good. I was basically doing it in my head. I won't be making any changes for a while so I won't update it every day now.

Dave

[Frizz B.]

Good Luck

[Wheels]

Hey, found my old account talk thread too. I finished 2005 just under 8%. Nothing spectacular but I'm satisfied considering how far down I was in April and May.

I wish I had listened to myself for the last week in December. I told myself I was going to bail on stocks just before Christmas thinking that everybody would be trying to get out early for the new year. Oh well. It's a new year. Anybody up for 15 to 18% this year!!

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

BTW, to anybody who is looking over this thread, ignore the dollar balances above. They are fictional. That was the format back then but it got really confusing.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

Heading for the hills for a couple of days. Hopefully today won't breakdown before I get out.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

Getting back into the stock funds today, 30,40,30 C,S,and I. If today stays this far down, then I will be getting into all three at a lower price than I got out, which I guess is the idea. Hopefully at the very least we'll get a little bounce on Monday.

Sorry for the late notice to those of you who are doing the contrarian wheels thing (which by the way would have been a good plan for Jan thru Sept of 2005 - but I've been doing much better since then).

Dave
<><

[mlk_man]

Damn it Dave, too late to cancel my IFT!! :mad:

:p

[Wheels]

You know it's been a while when you have trouble finding your account talk thread. Jumped in today 40 C 40 S and 20 I. Normally I would have gone with more I but I am a little concerned about the dollar.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

If today's gains hold, that'll 5 straight days of moderate or better gains. Could be time for a rest. As milk would say, I'm wheelin' over to G to protect these gains. Could be a very short term move.

Dave
<><

[CheapShot]

Probably not a bad idea there probably will be a sell off tomorrow, but the I Fund still may stay green, it doesn't seem to sell off for profits like the C Fund and S Fund do on Fridays. I went 75% stocks yesterday which probably seemed foolish getting in on the High, but being bullish I went the opposite of what would seem foolish. So far it has worked today. I wish jumped in when you did, but I still have made some gains. I will ride through this tomorrow and may go a little lighter in the I Fund for Monday morning. If I see red in the C & S tomorrow I will probably go 100% into stocks with 40 C, 40 S, 20 I for Monday.

[Wheels]

Just noticed that my IFT for March 16th never happened. I thought I got the confirmation e-mail . I am at work so I can't really investigate until later today. I'll also have to wait until I see my personal tracker before I know whether this hurts me or helps but a quick glance at the TSP share prices for the past week tells me that it should be within a few tenths of a percent either way so no big deal I guess. For the sake of tracking on this site, I was 40 40 20 CSI when I made the change so I guess I will be considered 40 40 20 CSI starting on Monday the 27th - unless I make a change later this morning.

Dave
<><

[mlk_man]

For the purpose of tracking on this site, you are considered to be 100% G today and Monday uunless you post a change before the deadline today.

M_M

[Wheels]

For the purpose of tracking on this site, you are considered to be 100% G today and Monday uunless you post a change before the deadline today.

M_M

I think that's what I said except I used my usual "rambling" technique.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

Moot point because I am moving 100% into G this morning (hopefully for real this time). I am hoping today's gains will hold or even increase (unfortunately they are nosing over a bit right now). Hopefully the penny won't pay out early and I'll catch it on Monday.

That's a lot of hoping.

Dave
<><

[mlk_man]

You're lovin' this ain't ya Dave? :p

[Wheels]

You're lovin' this ain't ya Dave? :p

I'm trying not to take pleasure in other's losses, however, yes I'm glad that the pullback has finally come and that it is steep. Now I have to find the right day to get in, and fight off the urge to keep saying "just one more down day".

Dave
<><

[mlk_man]

I know you're not taking that pleasure, that's going on with the "I told you so's". I'm just makin' sure you're still with us. :)

It's been stated before, I don't care what someone can do for one month, it's the longevity that matters..............:D

[CheapShot]

I'm trying not to take pleasure in other's losses, however, yes I'm glad that the pullback has finally come and that it is steep. Now I have to find the right day to get in, and fight off the urge to keep saying "just one more down day".

Dave
<><I think another steep drop tommorrow, but how does it play out with options week. Or will that have any affect on the I fund at all. When it pulls back like it did does it pop right back up or flutter for a while, either way I haven't caught my breath yet, my ass is still sore from getting it kicked so badly the past four days.

[Wheels]

Moved into 100% I today. This could well be a one day move. C and S are looking like they COULD have a big day. If so I am not neccassarily just trying to catch the bounce in the I because that could be negated by an FV, but rather try to avoid the possible drop in the C and S for tomorrow.

Dave
<><

[Dave M]

Hey Wheels, yer rollin'. You appear to be one of the very few who captured all of today. D

[Wheels]

Hey Wheels, yer rollin'. You appear to be one of the very few who captured all of today. D

Actually I didn't get the whopping hit in the I today. I moved 100% into the S last week. I posted it in my account but I did not post anything here in my account talk. Still pleased with the S today. I know ebbnflow was 100% I today so he got the hit. BUT he is still in the I and it is currently overpriced by 40 cents so he may lose a chunk of it it tomorrow.

Dave
<><

[CheapShot]

So I look good for tomorrow Dave, I bailed today to 100 G effective tomorrow. I didn't have 100 I but I did have 70 I, 20 S, 10C, I might move it all back if tomorrow starts off red.

[Wheels]

I'm not saying the I won't continue to move up. I'm just saying that it will move up 40 cents less than it would have otherwise. I think bailing was a good move. Either way you have got a bunch of money in your account that you didn't really have coming to you. Nice the way that fair valuation takes care of you sometimes.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

Stepping into the G fund for a day or two. I'm thinking the market needs to digest some of these gains. I'll be back in quickly though as think we are still heading higher from here.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

Stepping into the G fund for a day or two. I'm thinking the market needs to digest some of these gains.

More like indigestion. Hoping to catch a bounce or rebound from here. Hope it waits until tomorrow to happen.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

Hope it waits until tomorrow to happen.


Yikes. No sooner do I say it and up they go.

Dave
<><

[mlk_man]

She's tryin' to Dave.................:blink:

[Wheels]

Slowly creeping up, mocking me, taunting me.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

More climbing, more taunting.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

If the G pays the penny tonight, that'll be a nice little bonus to my one day side step.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

Of the top 7 people at the top of the tracker as of last Friday, 5 are 100% G, 1 is 67% G, and then there is me at 100% S.

Has me a little nervous!!!

Dave
<><

[nnuut]

You da man Wheels! :D How did you do that?:confused:

[Wheels]

I had to place my bet earlier than usual today because I won't have access later. I'm counting on continued weakness today and a rally tomorrow after the Fed HALTS.

Place your bets.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

and a rally tomorrow

Well that was a quick 5K mistake. Now I am in a jam. My greedy and competitive side says, "Don't sell until the S is higher than it was when you bought". My more reasonable side says, "Now that the Fed is out of the way, we have only a slower economy with higher inflation and lower earnings ahead. Could be a lot of pain before the S is higher than it was before I bought". Unfortunately my greedy side is bigger and stronger than my reasonable side.

In any event, I am still in tomorrow like it or not so I have until tomorrow to decide.

Dave
<><

[tsptalk]

Today's earnings report from Cisco might help you tomorrow.

[Griffin]

Well that was a quick 5K mistake...... Unfortunately my greedy side is bigger and stronger than my reasonable side.


Dave,

I'm only trying to look out for your best interest :D , but is getting greedy mean your going to pull out before you loose any more?

Just trying to drive home the point I said before, what you did yesterday does not matter :D it's tommorrow that counts.

I realize the S fund is near the current bottom (I advocated the S-fund last week for this exact reason) but ask yourself...... is there anything about the attached chart that says you are going to make money the day after tomorrow?

Given the current situation, do you think that the current bottom is a reliable support level?

Best of luck :)

[Wheels]

Funny, I was thinking of your advice when I made my last post. To answer your questions, a) greedy in this situation would be staying in and hoping for enough gains to get out higher than I got in (after all, I still haven't earned my first TSPtalk coffee mug), b) to tell you the truth the attached chart doesn't tell me much since I don't really know how to read c) I am definately concerned about this level of support holding given the current fundalmentals.

This would be a good point to stop and ask Tom a question. Tom, you have been indicating for some time now that you are very bullish for the intermediate time frame. This is based on your indicators and you 3 legs theory. However, the last few weeks or months have told us that the second half of this year is going to bring us slower (maybe much slower) growth, higher inflation, lower earnings etc. In short, fundalmentals that don't really bode well for a rising stock market. Now I would love for the second half of this year to go exactly like last year's but I don't see it shaping up that way. Why haven't these fundalmentals dampened your outlook?

Dave
<><

[nnuut]

Hic! Follow the winners.:D

[tsptalk]

This would be a good point to stop and ask Tom a question. Tom, you have been indicating for some time now that you are very bullish for the intermediate time frame. This is based on your indicators and you 3 legs theory. However, the last few weeks or months have told us that the second half of this year is going to bring us slower (maybe much slower) growth, higher inflation, lower earnings etc. In short, fundalmentals that don't really bode well for a rising stock market. Now I would love for the second half of this year to go exactly like last year's but I don't see it shaping up that way. Why haven't these fundalmentals dampened your outlook?
Dave -
The 3 legs are psychology, valuation and monetary conditions. They told me to be cautious (for too long I know) and in early May, when everyone was thinking everything looked great, the market topped. The indicators said - trouble ahead - and we got it. Remember, the market tops out when things look their best, and it bottoms when things look their worst because the market is a forward looking indicator.

I believe most of the bad news (inflation, a slow down, etc.) has already been priced in with the recent correction. Now sentiment surveys are very bearish, stock valuations are still very underpriced compared to bond yields, and the Fed is starting to put the breaks on interest rate hikes. To me, that means all 3 of the legs are in good position for a long term rally.

It may take more time to digest the outside "noise" as the market will make short-term wiggles but in 6 to 12 months the market will ride the wave of those three legs as it always, eventually does (or at least has in the past.)

Hope that makes sense.
Tom

[Griffin]

It may take more time to digest the outside "noise" as the market will make short-term wiggles but in 6 to 12 months the market will ride the wave of those three legs as it always, eventually does (or at least has in the past.)

Hope that makes sense.
Tom

Tom,

I not trying to put you on the spot, and I trust your opinion on this more then mine - when you say "wiggles" - do you mean within the current channel that you showed on today's chart? (at least for the near term future). It took several months for the trouble signs to kick in leading up to May, and that last few weeks was really bizarre, I would expect the same in reverse especially with these elections ahead.

[Wheels]

S fund underperforming again. This last move of mine is not working out at all. Perhaps the rotation to large caps really has begun (afterall they have been calling for it for 3 years now.)

Dave
<><

[tsptalk]

...when you say "wiggles" - do you mean within the current channel that you showed on today's chart? (at least for the near term future).
We are seeing a pretty solid base being built in most of the indices, so barring any cataclysmic events, I'd say yes, moving to the bottom of that current channel would be my worst case scenario.

[Wheels]

Gee the S is underperforming. There's something different............not.

Dave
<><

[nnuut]

Maybe Birchtree's prediction is becoming a reality?:D

[Birchtree]

Thanks Nnuut - nothing happens over night - there will be plenty of opportunity to peel off positions in small caps at higher prices. The trick is how long do you stay when the gains return. I've been lightening my load for many months now and will continue to shift out of small caps. I'm always unfortunately in early and out early - let'er come to me.

Dennis - permabull #1

[Wheels]

Maybe Birchtree's prediction is becoming a reality?:D

While Birch has been waiting for the big caps to outperform, I beat the C fund in 2003, 04, 05, and so far in 06. If it has finally come, I'll take my lumps for a month or to be sure.

Dave
<><

[nnuut]

I'll take my gains where ever they are, if it's the "Z" fund I'm there. "S" has been lagging lately, and the "C" higher and more stable, ya never know?:D

[Wheels]

S Fund struggling again. I really feel like the S fund is really due a pop but I have felt too much pain from it for too long and I'm throwing in the towel (might be a good time for the rest of you to jump in.

The dollar has rallied the last couple of days and may be due a drop. Therefore I am going 100% I for Monday.

I had gotten myself into third place right behind S&S and Fundsurfer and was hoping to make my move this week. Instead I have fallen way, way behind. More importantly, I dropped almost 10K.

Looking for a better week next week,

Dave
<><

[FundSurfer]

I seem to recall the S-fund has acted this way before, 2004? That it was underperforming compared to C and I fund. When it did finally turn around it was a heck of a ride. It's scortched me a couple times this summer as well. I'm in the I-fund (60%) as well for the same reason. I'm keeping an eye on S for when it does straighten up and act more normal.

[Wheels]

Decided to go 100% G today before the deadline. Still feeling out of sync though, since the S underperformed for weeks while I was in it and has not outperformed for the few days that I've been out of it. However I am happy to have re-couped last weeks losses, even if Sugar and Fundsurfer are now leaving me in the dust.

The best possible scenario for today is that our markets will continue to rise in the afternoon and that will cause Barclays to FV and I'll get a few extra pennies that I don't deserve (a la' S&S). Then for an added bonus, the G fund doesn't give out the penny until tomorrow.

Asking for too much???

Dave
<><

[sugarandspice]

Dont worry Wheels. There's no schtick in this post.

I was looking at today for another opportunity to exploit the FV situation but I dont feel like today is the day. The dollar is down but I think the markets will stay pretty steady. Had I felt a drop was coming today I would have went for it.

And I know that out of sync feeling all too well. It's like going on tilt when playing poker.


Do you think being at the top of the leaderboard has changed any of your investment decisions?
I have been looking at that concerning myself but haven't arrived at any conclusions yet.

[Wheels]

Do you think being at the top of the leaderboard has changed any of your investment decisions?
I have been looking at that concerning myself but haven't arrived at any conclusions yet.

I know the right answer is No, of course not. But the truth is it probably did once or twice. Especially when all 3 of us were very close and I was in 3rd. In the back of my mind I knew that to pass you guys I had to be doing something that the two of you weren't. Pretty stupid mentality when you are throwing pretty large sums of money around. Now that you are running away with it, maybe I can get back to using just my brains and my intuition and leave my pride out of it.

Dave
<><

[Birchtree]

Since there are no questions but rather delarative sentences - I agree. Try some granite...

[tsptalk]

In the back of my mind I knew that to pass you guys I had to be doing something that the two of you weren't. Pretty stupid mentality when you are throwing pretty large sums of money around.
I know the feeling because that's exactly what goes through my mind when I am trying to beat the S&P near the end of the year. If I am ahead, I so want to just go 100% C fund to guarantee winning, but that just isn't right. We should always try to do what we think is best for our account.

But guess what? Every fund manager in the world is thinking the same thing... Beat the S&P, beat the S&P, beat the S&P... :)

[nnuut]

Oh, how fleeting the glory can be!:o

[Wheels]

Moved 100% into the S for Monday. I was hoping for a bit of a pullback over the last couple of days but perhaps just taking a rest will be enough. Or maybe we'll get a little more this afternoon. Tom has said before that overbought conditions can be alleviated without a lot of selling taking place. Perhaps this is one of those instances.

Antway, the S has mocked me recently. Hopefully it will take a little pity on me this time around.

Dave
<><

[ChemEng]

Its shaping up to be a good day to go 100%S. Nice choice. Hopefully itll bounce a bit next week for you.

[SkyPilot]

Wheels, the S fund is saying "Ssssssssssssss", and has mocked many in this sarcastic voice... :D

[Wheels]

Well this is getting ridiculous. I spend several weeks in the S. It badly underperforms the entire time. I jump into the I for a few days and the S solidly outperforms. I jump back into the S and it, right on cue, badly underperforms again.

I give up.

Dave
<><

[nnuut]

Out of sync Dave, happens to me all the time!:mad: Do what I do, (ha) whatever I think I should do, do the opposite, or the opposite of what I do!

[tsptalk]

I give up.
Good things tend to happen to people after they say, "I give up!" :)

[Wheels]

Good things tend to happen to people after they say, "I give up!" :)


..............................................not.

Dave
<><

[Wheels]

If anyone wants to make guaranteed money, watch what I do carefully..........and then run the other way. Lest anyone thinks I am exaggerating, check out these stats.

From 7/6 to 7/31 I was in the S. During that time the S was down 2.34 while the I was up 1.93.

Then from 8/8 to 8/11 I tried the S again. It was down 1.86while the I was flat.

Then I gave up and joined the I from 8/12 to 8/16 and I did gain 2.87 but the S was up 3.37.

Alas I am back in the S since 8/19. It is now down 1.42 to the I's .40 (and that doesn't include today's bludgeoning).

I am too broken down to add up the total disparity.

Dave
<><

[mlk_man]

Hang in there Dave. That's one reason that I decided to go 50S and 50I when I get a buy signal. Seems to work out better in the end.

[tsptalk]

If anyone wants to make guaranteed money, watch what I do carefully..........and then run the other way. Lest anyone thinks I am exaggerating, check out these stats.
And yet you're still kicking most of our butts for the year. :D

[Wheels]

And yet you're still kicking most of our butts for the year. :D

Not after this week I'm not. I'm sure I slipped right out of the top ten.

Dave
<><

[FundSurfer]

UR #5 right behind sugarandspice. Still very good and you are overdue for a break.

[Wheels]

Very difficult to make a decision today because today's action is not very definitive. S is surely becoming due for a pullback but I think I'll push my luck a little this time and stand pat. This slope is getting slippery though.

[Wheels]

Once again, the "just one more day" mentality bit me in the........... A whopping 1.68% loss today. Wipes out more than half of the gains of the last 6 consecutive up days.

I am now almost 2% behind the I fund, and more than 2% behind the leaders on the Tally board. But what's worse, much worse, is that my account has $9,000 less than did a day ago.

Brutal day. Very frustrating.

[Birchtree]

It's a small consolation, but you are still ahead of me on the tally.

[ebbnflow]

Wheels, the S fund is saying "Ssssssssssssss", and has mocked many in this sarcastic voice... :D


Once again, the "just one more day" mentality bit me in the........... A whopping 1.68% loss today. Wipes out more than half of the gains of the last 6 consecutive up days.

I am now almost 2% behind the I fund, and more than 2% behind the leaders on the Tally board. But what's worse, much worse, is that my account has $9,000 less than did a day ago.

Brutal day. Very frustrating.

That's what happens when you play with the Snake-fund -- you never know when it's gonna bite back. Time to go over to the Goodship-fund or the Friendly-fund. :D

[ocean]

Once again, the "just one more day" mentality bit me in the........... A whopping 1.68% loss today. Wipes out more than half of the gains of the last 6 consecutive up days.

I am now almost 2% behind the I fund, and more than 2% behind the leaders on the Tally board. But what's worse, much worse, is that my account has $9,000 less than did a day ago.

Brutal day. Very frustrating.

Wheels,

Hope tomorrow will be a better day for you. As Birch said, your standing is still ahead of many members here. From what I see, you only slipped one position as Griffin just past you. Don't feel bad.

As for the dollar amount, I feel your pain. You know, as the size of the portfolio goes up, we really can't avoid that. Each 1 to 2 % up or down in the funds, we will see $5K to $11K fluctuation in the balance (at this point). Don't worry, you will get it back pretty soon.

Ocean

[Wheels]

Another $5400 (and apparently increasing) right off the top. At least I'm not losing any ground on the I fund.

[Birchtree]

Yes but consider: you have pretty maple and birch tree leaves to look at out your back door. That's a reason not to be despondent. Enjoy the fall.

[Wheels]

Nice turnaround. Hope it holds (or continues)

[ocean]

Wheels,

-.05 on S fund today truned out not as bad as you thought. Nice rebound.

Ocean

[Wheels]

Wheels,

-.05 on S fund today truned out not as bad as you thought. Nice rebound.

Ocean


Yes. I survived the day O.K. The S is underperforming badly again though for several days now. I am ever so slightly ahead of the I. If that holds, I may jump 100% into the I just to stay ahead.

[Wheels]

This had been a very good week for me until today. In fact I think I had wiggled my way back into 3rd place on the tracker before today. But with all the other leaders in the I fund today, and me still in the S, I'm sure I took a hit in the polls. Still made a few bucks this week so it's all good.

[mlk_man]

Dave, what ever happens, please don't jump.................:blink:

[Wheels]

Dave, what ever happens, please don't jump.................:blink:

That's hardly ledge talk. If you wanna hear some ledge talk I'll go back through some of my posts in the last 6 months. I'll show you some ledge talk.

I find some of my bests periods come right after some of my strongest ledge talk. Guys I work with call it the whine, whine, win technique.

[Wheels]

I went 100% G for Monday. Unfortunately, the S is lagging pretty badly again today, but assuming is doesn't fall off a cliff, this will go down as a decent week. I don't normally put any stock into what Tom calls seasonality data, however the week after quad witching combined with the overbought conditions has me running for the hills. I probably missed the G penny as it should pay out tonight, but a little bonus would be if it holds off one more day.

Now my concern is that these overbought/oversold conditions can last for weeks while the market's momentum carries it in the same direction. I've been early on my last 3 or 4 moves. I tried to be patient this time. We'll see.

[Wheels]

I probably missed the G penny as it should pay out tonight, but a little bonus would be if it holds off one more day.


WooHoo

[The_Technician]

I went 100% G for Monday. Unfortunately, the S is lagging pretty badly again today, but assuming is doesn't fall off a cliff, this will go down as a decent week. I don't normally put any stock into what Tom calls seasonality data, however the week after quad witching combined with the overbought conditions has me running for the hills. I probably missed the G penny as it should pay out tonight, but a little bonus would be if it holds off one more day.

Now my concern is that these overbought/oversold conditions can last for weeks while the market's momentum carries it in the same direction. I've been early on my last 3 or 4 moves. I tried to be patient this time. We'll see.

I'm interested in why you think the G should have payed out tonight Dave....I would love to learn if I'm missing something.......

[mlk_man]

Someone with a crystal ball is asking if they are missing something? Hmmmm

[Wheels]

I've been early on my last 3 or 4 moves. I tried to be patient this time. We'll see.

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday at noon I thought I had timed this one perfectly. 24 hours later and the S fund was up almost 2 percent. Back to the drawing board.

[Wheels]

Considered a move back into the S today. But, in this new FAA, I was once again kept in a position for over two hours, and I wasn't relieved in time to make a move before noon. So as a result I am hoping for one more weak day in stocks tomorrow but I am expecting a huge run-up instead.

[Wheels]

Ugh. This is not what I wanted to see today. Tom would you please capitulate and throw all your money into stocks so the market can pull back some.

[tsptalk]

OK - going 100% stocks.

Does just saying it count or do I have to actually move my money? :D

[Birchtree]

You can hold out a little longer. Wait until after we get 1330 or better on SPX. That should be the new established floor. You can't rush a good thing.

[Wheels]

OK - going 100% stocks.

Does just saying it count or do I have to actually move my money? :D

Nope. You have to actually move the money. I'll expect to see something in tomorrow's comments.

[Wheels]

I may jump 100% into the I just to stay ahead.

I made this statement on 9/11. By 9/13, I was roughly 2% ahead of the I. Today, I am 1% behind the I. I'm thinking I should have made the move. If I am lucky enough to get 2% ahead of the I again before this year is over, I WILL make that move.

[FundSurfer]

You've been very quiet lately. What'cha think'n? How much of a pullback are you looking for before deciding to jump back in?

[Wheels]

You've been very quiet lately. What'cha think'n? How much of a pullback are you looking for before deciding to jump back in?

I'm thinking that I'm not going to be posting that much for a while (unless I see where I can explain something to someone who is struggling with something). No sense trying to hash out your thoughts and have an intelligent debate when there are idiots who feel compelled to chime in where they are not wanted with their idiot mantra.

As to your specific question I'll send you a PM.

[mlk_man]

You'll be missed Dave. Easy with the "I" word though. I got in trouble for using that one...........

[sugarandspice]

I'm thinking that I'm not going to be posting that much for a while (unless I see where I can explain something to someone who is struggling with something). No sense trying to hash out your thoughts and have an intelligent debate when there are idiots who feel compelled to chime in where they are not wanted .........


Way to go Sugar. You ran off a respected member and valued opinion here.

Tom, she really is bad for business here. How about a read only and posting to her thread restriction?

[Wheels]

Easy with the "I" word though. I got in trouble for using that one...........

What------ever!

[AIF]

Dave,
I've not posted on your thread before but I do read every post you make. I hope that you might reconsider your decision. For me it's the different opinions on this board that make it a valuable educational resource. Without the input of all those who have something to offer, the value of this resource goes down. I’m learning and I’m starting at the beginning. I like to know as much as possible but I can only research those ideas and thoughts that are posted. Again, please reconsider.
Thanks,
AIF

[Birchtree]

Don't worry, I know what this is about. I'm the one with the idiot mantra and the damn C fund that keeps stinking up the place. Well that's just tough chitty said kitty.

[smine]

Don't go, Wheels. You've been around since the near beginning.

[airlift]

You have always been helpful to me, and I think you should not stop posting your opinions, regardless of any type of disagreement or controversy! -



Don't go, Wheels. You've been around since the near beginning.

[Wheels]

Don't worry, I know what this is about. I'm the one with the idiot mantra and the damn C fund that keeps stinking up the place. Well that's just tough chitty said kitty.

Birch - Since I didn't mention any names, you just both showed everyone that you consider yourself to be an idiot and made my point for me. Nicely done.


Again, please reconsider.

Aif, and others. Thanks for the kind words. I have reconsidered several times. I'll lurk, and perhaps chime in from time to time.

[Birchtree]

Wheels,

Thanx for those kind words - now take that block of granite off your back and come back to the S fund. Snort.

Dennis - permabull #1

[nnuut]

Oh, well! :o

[sugarandspice]

Don't worry, I know what this is about. I'm the one with the idiot mantra and the damn C fund that keeps stinking up the place. Well that's just tough chitty said kitty.

Like we didn't already know?