Long time reader, first time poster

[Beaker]

First of all, thanks for the great site and vast amounts of information. I've been reading since Sep and have followed (for the most part) Tom's allocations which have been good the last 3 months. Right now it's very frustrating!?!?

Still trying to figure out a good system to use in all markets (if that's possible). I found an indicator on www.tspmoney.com (http://www.tspmoney.com) that tracks MA for short, med, and long range. Anyone have experience with it or comments on putting it to use?? Right now all but long range are giving me a RED LIGHT on C, S, I. Tempted to go 100%G until I see some positive movement. Right now 40G 30C 15S 15I.

[tsptalk]

Welcome beaker!

When you use market timing indicators, it is important to know if you are intrending market (one making higher highs and higher lows on the way up or making lower lows and lower lows on the way down), or an oscillating market (one going up and down with no definate direction). Moving averages and trendlines are indicators more effective in trending markets, while overbought/oversold and stochastics indicators work better in oscillating markets.

The first half of 2004 was definately oscillating and since August we have been trending upward. The moving averages should do well unless that trend is broken.

Tom

[Spaf]

Beaker wrote:
Right now it's very frustrating!?!?

Still trying to figure out a good system to use in all markets (if that's possible). I found an indicator on http://www.tspmoney.com that tracks MA for short, med, and long range. Anyone have experience with it or comments on putting it to use??
Right now we seem to be in a correction, this is a normal thing for bull markets. A 50 day moving average will give an indication of how the market is trending.

There is a system to use in all markets. It's more of a group of things under the name The Dow Theory. It's posted on this site in the recommended readings, education, Dow Theory. Or by internet search under the same name. This will give you the big picture. After that you will need to make up your own system. In trending bearish markets 5, and 20 day moving averages give a good picture. In bull markets its mainly a matter of allocation and maybe catching a correction by selling high and buying low, something not easy to do with the TSP transfer delay of 1-2 days. Also see the web sites at:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com
http://www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com)

The tspmoney site is also good, but it doesn't reference the principal movement of the market i.e., bull or bear. For that reason I tend to take it with a grain of salt. See Secrets of Sucessful Trading at the incrediblecharts web site.

Enjoy and Rgds :) Spaf

Beaker,

Now would be a good time to put some of your G fund to work. Do NOT bail now.

Everyone buys when the market is going up (this board is a good example :P).

If you can fight that urge and sell into the market going up and buy when the market goes down you will come out way ahead.

Put some money to work now. Chuck some cash towards you IRA.

At the end of year...your total return will be much better.

Stay positive. Whenevereveryone iswringing their hands that is when I get bullish.

Run away...not with the lemmings.

:D