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01-05-2005, 08:11 AM
If the 50 dma breaks then the next resistance point will be the 200dma...if that is broken then my target of 9900-10000 will come to past.

Hopefully me talking about it will cause the market to turn. Early to middle December the market was overlooking bad economic reports - that is very toppy very soon afterwards. But there has been a lot of damage and that will need time to fix before we see any gains. Once again the rotation is out of the small caps...so you may want to lighten up on the S fund on your next change.

MT

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=m50,m200&a=

tsptalk
01-05-2005, 06:42 PM
MarketTimer wrote:
Hopefully me talking about it will cause the market to turn.

That is funny.... and true :D

Mike
01-06-2005, 12:33 AM
I'm waiting (very patiently) for the S to recover before shifting out of it. Selling now will only lock in a substantial loss.

Sell the rumor, indeed... :shock:

Dave M
01-06-2005, 01:06 AM
I don't see how selling will "lock in losses" since one can buy back in at any time. Rather, I went 100%G yesterday in the spirit of "profit taking"-- in order tolock in my previous gains.

I'm pretty new to this forum, which is one that I truly appreciate. So maybe there is something I have yet to understand?

Dave M

Spaf
01-06-2005, 01:17 AM
Dave M wrote:
Rather, I went 100%G yesterday in the spirit of "profit taking"

I would rather not agree with you, unless you could explain what profits you were referring to! Not to be offensive, just curious. You have sort of lost me?

Rgds :? Spaf

Mike
01-06-2005, 02:07 AM
I purchased my S shares @ $14.55 - if I bail now, I'm locking in a major loss.

I purchased C @ $12.83, so I'm in a similar situation (not as bad though) there.

I don't expect a total collapse here, so it makes sense from my perspective to sit tight and wait for the market to move back up. If we keep dropping through the long-term MA's, then we're in real trouble. I don't see any reason for that yet, though. Economic news is good. The GDP growth in the 4th quarter was strong by all indications. Manufacturing activity is stronger than expected. Factory orders are up. Retail sales are up. Oil is hovering in the low 40's as it has for awhile now. In other words, the raw economics of the situation remain decent (pending the next jobs report).

The federal reserve's comments from the last meeting were released this week, though - and they pointed to inflationary concerns and possibly alluded to stronger rate hikes than the 0.25 we've been seeing. That is what triggered this sell off. With a good jobs report, I expect people to jump back into the market. We are now oversold.

Dave M
01-06-2005, 05:12 AM
Profit taking -- I am thinking of the profits that resulted from the runup Sept 04 to present. These are at risk. By stashing everything in the G-fund for a short while, I am "locking them in." Once the stock funds show some signs of life, I can quickly move back in to the C S I, having avoided most of the downturn and missed just a small part of the upturn.

Why is it better to ride out the down cycle while remaining invested? Why not bailin good time, then get back in at an opportune moment? To me it just seems best to avoid further loss if possible, and we have the luxury of the guaranteed government fund as a place to sit and wait.

Dave

lovegardening
01-06-2005, 05:48 AM
I see alot of you moving into the G fund early. I see some in C, S and I and I understand these are interfund transfers. BUT WHERE ARE YOUR CONTRIBUTION ALLOCATIONS. WHAT FUNDS ARE THEY IN?

01-06-2005, 05:57 AM
My TSP transfer came throu. OK, the market can rally now.

:D

lovegardening
01-06-2005, 06:06 AM
What my question meant was Are you all putting the same allocations in your CONTRIBUTION allocations as you are in your INTERFUND transfers? What is the BEST allocation for CONTRIBTUTION allocations.....Do I keep them them both the same amounts. When I make an interfund transfer do I make my contribution allocation the same? or.................should my contribution allocation always remain in the same funds? Is my question making sense? I need some really good advice in this area. New here.

01-06-2005, 06:19 AM
I am not employed by the government anymore. I got no money going in. I just use these funds because the ETFs get pricey for as much trading as I do:(. On the other hand the ETF you do not have to have your order in by noon and are not locked into the share price at the end of the day. Havelost a ton of cash by making a transfer in the morning and then have the market sell off hard at 3:30pm like it has been doing a lot lately. At 11:58am the move looked great...four hours later you are slamming your head against the wall.

:cool:

01-06-2005, 06:21 AM
I would recommend having your new contributions go 100% G. If you track the market you will see that a large percentage of up days happen when the gov vests the tsp.

You want to put money to work on bad days and sell on up days. But with having to do the change prior to noon that does not work out cleanly.

Hope that helps and that is just my advice. Over the next couple of months watch the market during the govt TSP invest days and judge for yourself if you had the choice if you would of put money to work on that day.

:^

Rod
01-06-2005, 07:15 AM
lovegardening wrote:
What my question meant was Are you all putting the same allocations in your CONTRIBUTION allocations as you are in your INTERFUND transfers? What is the BEST allocation for CONTRIBTUTION allocations.....Do I keep them them both the same amounts. When I make an interfund transfer do I make my contribution allocation the same? or.................should my contribution allocation always remain in the same funds? Is my question making sense? I need some really good advice in this area. New here.
Most of us have our Payday Allocations going into (G).

This way you will not incur an immediate loss with your new $$$ coming in. Then you can simply move it from there to wherever you want.

I hope this helps.

God Bless:^

01-06-2005, 07:21 AM
i.e. do not buy high. Like I said Mondays are normally down days and your money goes in on Friday...by Monday closing price you are down a tad for not taking your investment control into your own paws.

Hedge funds know that tons of cash goes in on Friday govt vest days and sell it off for you so you have a nice little loss the next workday.

Got to love capitalism. If their is a way to fleece you (social security reform as an example) the big guys will figure it out.

:?

FundSurfer
01-06-2005, 07:33 AM
Mike wrote:
I'm waiting (very patiently) for the S to recover before shifting out of it. Selling now will only lock in a substantial loss.




I prefer to just look forward. The past is the past. Just look forward. Where is the best place to be tommorrow. I hung onto S too long expecting that it would be the leader the next day on the bounce. I still think that stocks are the place to be cause I expect a rally but I'm spreading around my money now.

Safetyguy
01-06-2005, 07:57 AM
Rod wrote:
Most of us have our Payday Allocations going into (G).

This way you will not incur an immediate loss with your new $$$ coming in. Then you can simply move it from there to wherever you want.

Idon't know if this is helpful or not but I have twice successfully changed my payday allocation on thedaythat EFT transfers money to my bank account and TSP.I'm not saying I have made the right allocation choices but it did prevent me from buying G on days when the share prices went up a penny.

01-06-2005, 08:01 AM
Surfer,

Do not get down.

There is a buying opportunity right now in the I fund. If the job report comes in good tomorrow move some of your S into I fund. Reason the I fund will do well on Monday and you will want to lighten up on your S fund. Then the I fund should boom again when the trade balance report comes in hot - remember the last 10-12 days the dollar has been doing well...that is bad for the trade balance and good for the I fund.

The I fund will be the best fund this year. I am looking to go 100% I fund in a couple months and not mess with the C and S funds.

Read about the expensing of stock options. Also it appears the chooses the social security reform folks will have is the C, G and F fund...from what I have read. The last thing the Casa Blanco would want is the social security reform to kick off and have the S fund down 30% the first year. Hey you opted out and you are down 30%....you can retire when you are 110 years will not cut it...I THINK.

:P

Wheels
01-06-2005, 08:10 AM
MarketTimer wrote:
- remember the last 10-12 days the dollar has been doing well...that is bad for the trade balance and good for the I fund.






Actually, as has been discussed ad nauseum on this board, a rising dollar is very bad for the I fund.

01-06-2005, 08:11 AM
You know what is funny. Everyone will now say I am crazy and stupid...a month from now when what I just say happens then I do not hear boo.

First post here was there will be a sell start off at the start of the New Year....

the cycle continues.

Just had to mention that when you start jumping on me for saying the S fund is not going to be your star this year.

:D

JSRoss01
01-06-2005, 08:16 AM
What do you recommend for this year?

01-06-2005, 08:22 AM
Wheels wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
- remember the last 10-12 days the dollar has been doing well...that is bad for the trade balance and good for the I fund.






Actually, as has been discussed ad nauseum on this board, a rising dollar is very bad for the I fund.

You are right. The I fund should do poorly especially since most European markets are hitting five year highs and the Nikkie is up so far this year. Please post your changes to your allocations...you have vast investing knowledge!!!!

DJ Euro STOXX50 (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=124840)
2,962.72
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+15.53
+0.53%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

FTSE Eurotop (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=125381)
2,277.23
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+10.48
+0.46%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

FTSE-100 (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=123797)
4,825.70
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+19.70
+0.41%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

FTSE-Techmark (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=159865)
1,201.37
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+5.64
+0.47%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

FTSE-All Shares (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=123796)
2,415.78
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+9.22
+0.38%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

DAX (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=125284)
4,290.11
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+31.87
+0.75%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

NM50 (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=150583)
553.53

UNCH
UNCH

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

MDAX (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=125514)
5,433.08
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+23.27
+0.43%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

CAC40 (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=123705)
3,857.28
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+27.92
+0.73%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

SBF 80 (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=125285)
3,754.46
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+14.50
+0.39%

JASDAQ (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=124205)
91.87
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+0.41
+0.45%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

NIKKEI 225 (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=123712)
11,492.26
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+54.74
+0.48%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

NIKKEI 300 (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=125497)
221.77
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+0.96
+0.43%

http://i.mktw.net/1.gif

NIKKEI OTC (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=124783)
1,762.06
http://i.mktw.net/tools/marketsummary/images/arrow_up.gif
+12.26
+0.70%

01-06-2005, 08:30 AM
Ross,

If you are in the stock funds...do not bail yet.

If the job report comes in good (it should they have the target down to 150K)...think about moving some of your S to I. If the job report comes in bad put your head between your legs and throw up...because we will may be down 10% in the C and 20% in the S fund. If the job report comes in bad then you want to move your I to the G fund because on Monday the I fund will get hammered.

The market should do well when the Pres is sworn in. I plan on selling into that and be in the G fund around 30 Jan (Iraq election) and then will go from there.

But do your own research and track what people are saying on this board. Find the people THAT MAKE YOU money and use their thought process to make investment decisions for yourself. Be careful of the people that are the naysayers and the one liner crowd...they basically are miserable people that will retire broke :^.

Hold and hope will not work this year.

MT

tsptalk
01-06-2005, 08:37 AM
MarketTimer wrote:
Wheels wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
- remember the last 10-12 days the dollar has been doing well...that is bad for the trade balance and good for the I fund.



Actually, as has been discussed ad nauseum on this board, a rising dollar is very bad for the I fund.

You are right. The I fund should do poorly especially since most European markets are hitting five year highs and the Nikkie is up so far this year. Please post your changes to your allocations...you have vast investing knowledge!!!!

He didn't say the I fund will do bad, he said a rising dollar is bad for the I fund - True.

JSRoss01
01-06-2005, 09:57 AM
i'm 33 C 34S 33 I, I am not sure where to find the out about these funds and I Seem to always miss out on the deadline to transfer next day. where do you find this info, outside this forum, and what time do you normally make transfers?

tsptalk
01-07-2005, 12:47 AM
Since I can't send email alerts during work hours, I make my transfer either the night before the deadline, or before 10:00 AM ET (8:00 AM my time).

teknobucks
01-07-2005, 07:02 AM
MarketTimer wrote:
If the 50 dma breaks then the next resistance point will be the 200dma...if that is broken then my target of 9900-10000 will come to past.

Hopefully me talking about it will cause the market to turn. Early to middle December the market was overlooking bad economic reports - that is very toppy very soon afterwards. But there has been a lot of damage and that will need time to fix before we see any gains. Once again the rotation is out of the small caps...so you may want to lighten up on the S fund on your next change.

MT

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=m50,m200&a=



'perma-bear syndrome"....buying stox and watching them make you money will cure this:)

did some shortingover the last few years...what a wonderful way to lose a lot of $$$$$$$$$ FAST.