^VIX

[RealMoneyIssues]

Reference:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=308110#post308110

So, is Yahoo the only place to get this VIX thingy... I have been using Google finance and was curious if I needed to move to Yahoo since it seems like a lot of the "^" like indices a lot of y'all are using are only on Yahoo...

Help? :nuts:

[jpcavin]

Reference:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=308110#post308110

So, is Yahoo the only place to get this VIX thingy... I have been using Google finance and was curious if I needed to move to Yahoo since it seems like a lot of the "^" like indices a lot of y'all are using are only on Yahoo...

Help? :nuts:

If you go to the below link, you can get a good doze of the whole enchilada! :D
http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat.aspx

[tsptalk]

More VIX discussions...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4702

[RealMoneyIssues]

If you go to the below link, you can get a good doze of the whole enchilada! :D
http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat.aspx


More VIX discussions...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4702

What I meant to say was basically "how to show VIX on Google Finance vice Yahoo Finance?"

But, thank you for the additional information on it as I meant to read up on it this week-end !!!

[alevin]

You can also watch the VIX movement on Stockcharts.com ($VIX) or on BigCharts.com, just type in VIX there.

[RealMoneyIssues]

No, wasn't an issue in the middle of August. It could definitely bounce from here... but I am staying away from volatility plays, they are dangerous.

[Bullitt]

A VIX reading below 17 has become the new threshold for Fed intervention. I wonder what the Fed could possibly do if (when) the VIX hits 20, 25, 30, 35, 40.

[Birchtree]

I suspect a VIX in the 10 range that is held for six months or so will start to bring in mom and pop. That's when there will be danger lurking but not until then with QE3 at our backs.

[Bullitt]

We're teetering on all time lows right now. A drop to 10 would be around a 30% drop. You would think that would equate to at least another 15% gain in the market.

I don't see it.

[Birchtree]

I feel the rumblings under my feet as this economy is percolating - waiting for new leadership that will arrive. Soon all one will hear from Democrats is all we needed was four more years, four more years. The big eared guy will be history and the economy will boom....it's basically common sense. Everyone needs to be invested to reap the gains from a 10 level VIX - you just know mom and pop will save the day. Anyway that's my plan - staying fully invested all the way.

[RealMoneyIssues]

A VIX reading below 17 has become the new threshold for Fed intervention. I wonder what the Fed could possibly do if (when) the VIX hits 20, 25, 30, 35, 40.
There is nothing else they can do. They announced unlimited QE, their quiver is empty.


I suspect a VIX in the 10 range that is held for six months or so will start to bring in mom and pop. That's when there will be danger lurking but not until then with QE3 at our backs.
Not likely to happen in the near future; at least until the economy ACTUALLY improves instead of being inflated by the Fed blowing smoke up it's @$$...


I feel the rumblings under my feet as this economy is percolating - waiting for new leadership that will arrive. Soon all one will hear from Democrats is all we needed was four more years, four more years. The big eared guy will be history and the economy will boom....it's basically common sense. Everyone needs to be invested to reap the gains from a 10 level VIX - you just know mom and pop will save the day. Anyway that's my plan - staying fully invested all the way.
Not going to happen BT, we have 4 more years of this, so any recovering is a long way off...

[Birchtree]

RMI,

I have my money where my mouth resides - and I'm prepared to become terribly wealthy. You just have to place your bet...

[RealMoneyIssues]

True, but you have much more time in than I do. I have to recover from 25 years of nothing...

[Birchtree]

The market has been my great equalizer over the years - just as I knew the potential was available. Always keep moving forward. I now have enough money to buy any stocks I want and can play the game anyway I want. Retirement provides the free time to really crank up the volume. And when the VIX starts dropping into the lower levels the stock market will be in full cyclical bull moves - the hard part will be to not get complacent and get decapitated. Dangerous yes, but an equal opportunity player for those who know the ropes. Snort.

[nnuut]

Nah!! Brace yourself to lose the Senate my friend.

[RealMoneyIssues]

Nah!! Brace yourself to lose the Senate my friend.

http://www.runemasterstudios.com/graemlins/images/roflmao.gif

[tsptalk]

OK, guys. Let's not let the VIX get political. :)

[Bullitt]

Today was around the 3rd or 4th time the VIX broke out of a downtrend line on daily chart. While it hasn't stayed above the trendline, more importantly it hasn't broken support. Today was a big 13% up and cleared 17.

[Bullitt]

Print of 21 today.

Either it stays in the range or breaks out. 21-22 has been a solid buy area for the past two years.

[Bullitt]

28.03 VIX close. Highest weekly close in over three years.

Generally, 20-40 mark areas that are better for buying than selling.

[Bullitt]

^^ Turned out that VIX at 28 was an excellent buying opportunity in 2015. ^^

Only at 24 though today. Going lower before it goes higher. End of year tax selling will keep pressure as people sell their losses in stocks like AAPL, NFLX and AMZN that they bought early in 2018. Dumb money buying high and selling low.

[tsptalk]

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/122218a.gif

[Bullitt]

Generally, 20-40 mark areas that are better for buying than selling.

High of 23 today.

Except for 2018's swoon, low 20's have been a good area to scale in.

[James48843]

Just a note- the $VIX is sitting at 48 right now- Almost exactly what it was last week.

45602

[Bullitt]

75 today after intervention.

CB's losing control.

[Bullitt]

Surpassed 2008 highs. According to the media it's only going higher because that's what they said about stock markets one month ago.

45751

[Bullitt]

Closing top was March 16th. The easy money has already been made on the downside.

Today is the first time closing below 60 in two weeks. 10 straight trading days above 60. Previous record was eight straight in 2008.

Near 60 is good. We don't want everyone getting too bullish too quickly.

[tsptalk]

We don't want everyone getting too bullish too quickly.

Who's "we?" :)

[Bullitt]

:smile:

I'd like to see more bets on this 'retest' that every chart follower is calling for. The more leveraged the downside everyone gets, the better. 2x, 3x bear funds, keep loading 'em up.

I'm of the opinion the easy money has already been made on the downside. Everyone is saying, "are you nuts, it's obviously going lower." Here's the thing - whether these people are sold out to cash or selling short, they have a vested interest in saying the market will go lower. In fact, they are praying for it to lower (re: 2x, 3x bear funds). The unfortunate truth is the ones who say they will buy when it 'gets lower' will sit there waiting for it to go even lower because the 'news' will be so negative.

It's good times, it's easy to say, "buy when there is blood on the street" and "be greedy when others are fearful". Hindsight when looking at charts it's easy extremely easy to say the 1987 crash, March 2009, or even December 2018 were great buying opportunities. At the time, the news was not suggestive of good times ahead.

"Yeah but this virus is a black swan and different." No it's not. Markets still move on greed and fear. See how the VIX does if a retest occurs. I'm guessing it doesn't come close to the previous high.

One of these weekends there will be good news announced and holding bear funds won't be fun on Monday morning. Again, all it's going to take is a spark to unwind the bear funds and get those in cash to chase higher prices.

[tsptalk]

I do like to buy deep declines, and I actually got caught buying too early back in Marhttps://www.tsptalk/com/images/mb/040320a.gifch, but if someone was waiting for a green light, I think that 2600+ area may be a good place to get interested - for now, assuming the lows hold if they are tested.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/040320a.gif

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/040320b.gif

[Bullitt]

Looking back, was March really a bad time to get in? The system might have been right.

VIX collapsing as people are not as interested as they were in downside protection. Of course, that could be construed as bearish, but taken as a whole, VIX at 27 is still a bit elevated.

46112

[Bullitt]

Gap filled from most recent swoon.

Watch out below (25). Listless summer trading is in full effect.

46598

[Bullitt]

60 minute VIX showing a slightly higher low and looking to push past the downtrend. Traders are positioning for some volatility here in the next two weeks.

47006

[Bullitt]

VIX at 33 and once the election is over, volatility should calm down.

All those trades and hedges made in favor of certain outcomes will be immediately unwound after the election result.

[Bullitt]

More trades being unwound today as the VIX goes from 28 to 22 in two days.

Vaccine, election, Georgia.. All major known risks seem to have passed. Blue wave, infrastructure bill, higher yields for the next couple years.

[Bullitt]

Volatility is back to near November levels. Question now is, how strong of an equity bounce do we get from here.

[Bullitt]

Well, we got the bounce. Was that the dip?

[Bullitt]

Was that the dip?

Maybe it was. VIX back to the 22 area after a short stint in the high 30's.

Resistance seems to be around the mid-24's. Watch out for a rise over 26, that's usually meant run-ups to the 30's in the past year.

[Bullitt]

Melting into the mid-21's at the close and getting very close to that low-21 number we saw in December. Some say 20 is the all clear bullish signal, though it seems we're there already.

[Bullitt]

Settled at 19.97.


Historical cases of elevated but falling volatility led to more gains for stocks over the next 6-12 months:

Dec 2009: S&P +12.6% over next year
May 2003: S&P +16.4% over next year
July 1999: bubble lasted another 9 months

https://twitter.com/bullmarketsco/status/1360345842138415106

[Bullitt]

First time since Feb '20 that the VIX has settled under 20 on consecutive days.

[Bullitt]

VIX melting down, markets melting up.

Looking to be the first weekly VIX close below both the 200 DMA and 20 level since very early February 2020.

[Bullitt]

VIX unable to break above 30 this week and put in two lower highs. Long term, anything over 30 has turned out to be a good panic selling opportunity. Bull run still intact?

[SWAVET]

I have PUT spread $18/$17 & $15 => expect it going to hit 15 before July 4.

[SWAVET]

Sold all PUT $18/$17 for 125% and sold $15 for 200% and bought 3 CALL spread June 16 $17/$18 for $.10 with the house $:banana:

I have PUT spread $18/$17 & $15 => expect it going to hit 15 before July 4.

[SWAVET]

Closed 2/3 to add 4 PUT $15 for free + 150% profit
Sold all PUT $18/$17 for 125% and sold $15 for 200% and bought 3 CALL spread June 16 $17/$18 for $.10 with the house $:banana:

[SWAVET]

VIX is correlation with SPX (both up trend) since 6/28 to present, watch out for the market to start down trend SOON. I have open VIX 8/20 $20/$27 CALL spread for $1.05.

[Bullitt]

VIX < 20

Closed at 18.9 today. Complacency? Or a calming uptrend?

[Bullitt]

VIX only at 31 will go much higher if there is any kind of capitulation low ahead. Numbers above 40 are not so common and usually indicate some sort of turn, so you'll want to watch for that coupled with a few 3-5% down days when it won't make any sense at all to be a buyer.

[Bullitt]

Market down 4% and we're only at a 31 VIX which is not indicative of a panic selling low.

[James48843]

Another VIX at 30 day.

Still no capitulation.

I’m thinking we will continue to see lower for a while longer- and then pretty much flat into the late summer months. Good luck.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=74921)

[TommyIV]

VIX, Wall Street's Fear Gauge, Extends Longest Lull Since 2021 (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-01-11-2023/card/vix-wall-street-s-fear-gauge-extends-longest-lull-since-2021-F7q5nhh4SE5DvHvTo5FV)


Wall Street's classic volatility indicator haven't been this subdued in more than a year as many investors paring back their stock exposure during last year's bear market, reducing the need to hedge with derivatives.


56906

[Bullitt]

VIX peaked on May 24 and right now is at the lowest level since 2019. 2019 was a just a slow move higher every day.

Like 2019, this is also the third year of the presidential cycle.

[Bullitt]

Still below 20 which equals correction terrority, but with today's close at 17.89, market is still seeking a floor around 4,300.

From 8/16:


Key Takeaway: Today was only the third 1% daily swing in the S&P 500 in the past two months. But it was also the seventh day in a row with more new lows than new highs. After strength faded last week, the market is getting less quiet this week. For now, the absence of fear (e.g. VIX > 28.5) suggests the path of least resistance for stocks is lower. Bulls no doubt have drawn their lines in the sand and will be under pressure to defend them.

https://himountresearch.substack.com/p/market-getting-louder-as-strength