DOW may well hit 16,000 by 2016

[TSPIntel]

DOW may easily grow 60 points per month on an average... ;)

[peterson82]

Hurray! Welcome to the Autotracker

[FAB1]

DOW may easily grow 60 points per month on an average... ;)

:confused: Are you related to a guy named, Birchtree??

[Warrenlm]

That's 16,000 in then-year dollars. :D

[Frixxxx]

Why do I get the feeling this thread needs to be renamed:

Guess the Dow - 2016???

I would hope some basis of judgement/research will soon be following.

[FAB1]

That's 16,000 in then-year dollars. :D

And In other news: Gold will reach $4000 per oz, in 2059

And I will be one century old! :nuts:

[Frixxxx]

And In other news: Gold will reach $4000 per oz, in 2059

And I will be one century old! :nuts:
Man you're old!:laugh:

[FAB1]

Why do I get the feeling this thread needs to be renamed:

Guess the Dow - 2016???

I would hope some basis of judgement/research will soon be following.

Youre right, until James comes along and proves all of this with Wikipedia entries this whole thread is nothing but Bee Ess :D

[FAB1]

Man you're old!:laugh:

Id wager YOU are no spring chicken yourself. :nuts:

[Frixxxx]

Well my birthday is coming up....but I'm barely a stone's throw over 40!:D

[FAB1]

Well my birthday is coming up....but I'm barely a stone's throw over 40!:D

Ok letsee... 40 + (stones throw) = 41 + 48...youll be a whole 89 years young in 2059.


young whipersnapper, respect your elders. :notrust:

[Warrenlm]

Youre right, until James comes along and proves all of this with Wikipedia entries this whole thread is nothing but Bee Ess :D
No, he will embrace it and claim it justifies extending more entitlements, at his neighbors' expense of course.

[Birchtree]

Some folks believe our current bull rally is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872. Laszlo Birinyi has said the average length and size of bull markets suggest the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013. This rally should continue another 32 months.

[jpcavin]

Why do I get the feeling this thread needs to be renamed:

Guess the Dow - 2016???

I would hope some basis of judgement/research will soon be following.

My tea leaves predict that he is probably wrong. On the other hand, my coffee grounds predict that he may be right. I'll have to double-check my crystal ball.:laugh:

[Frixxxx]

Some folks believe our current bull rally is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872. Laszlo Birinyi has said the average length and size of bull markets suggest the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013. This rally should continue another 32 months.
Excellent comparison based on if the economic indicators duplicate the fears and conditions those markets faced.

I believe that steady growth is not in the future for the next two years....but could be two years AFTER....Based on 6% growth 2016 should usher in a 16,000 no problem.

But if another predicted correction occurs, all bets off.

Thanks for keeping us honest Birch!:cool:

[tsptalk]

Based on 6% growth 2016 should usher in a 16,000 no problem.

Exactly. 16,000 is no real bullish call. That's about 5.5% a year. What happened to the old 11% average?

Of course 5.5% a year may seem great if we get another debt triggered bear market in the next few years.

[Frixxxx]

Exactly. 16,000 is no real bullish call. That's about 5.5% a year. What happened to the old 11% average?

Of course 5.5% a year may seem great if we get another debt triggered bear market in the next few years.
11%/year?

Here on this site has netted me 11% easily....

I knew what the thread wanted to do, but I want to show that it is pretty cut and dry on 16K in the Dow....Now let's be grown up and get there!

I say Dow 18,000 By 2016!:cool:

[rcknfrewld]

Was everyone this optimisitic at the start of '08. The mortgage crisis appeared to sneak up on everybody then. I'm wondering if inflation will sneak up on us the same way with the Bernank' s printing of money.

[Boghie]

Exactly. 16,000 is no real bullish call. That's about 5.5% a year. What happened to the old 11% average?

Of course 5.5% a year may seem great if we get another debt triggered bear market in the next few years.

Nice catch Tom. I was going to say the same thing. But, if you can't say it any better than be quiet... Yuk, yuk...

Anyway, the mortgage crisis didn't sneak up. It was right in your face by late 2007. Greed kept many of us in the market.

Inflation won't sneak up on us either. We have to be in equities to stay ahead of that bear. Amoeba should slow him down:p

[Warrenlm]

Even Calpers is revising down their expected return, though not enough probably. I think it's now something around 7% but they seem to accept that's possibly optimistic. Maybe 5% will turn out to be bullish after we get through the current enthusiasm. The real bet should be on what the DOW will be December 24, 2012, if we have the weekend after the 21st.

[TSPIntel]

Thank you. The proof will be there...

[TSPIntel]

:confused: Are you related to a guy named, Birchtree??

If Birchtree concur, Birchtree most arrived independenly to the same conclusion.:)

[TSPIntel]

Hurray! Welcome to the Autotracker

Thank you. Autotracker is the place where the bottomline talks and BS walks.

[TSPIntel]

That's 16,000 in then-year dollars. :D
Good point. Probably will mean a flat future to present dollars.

[TSPIntel]

Why do I get the feeling this thread needs to be renamed:

Guess the Dow - 2016???

I would hope some basis of judgement/research will soon be following.

Hope it give us the time prospective besides the day in and day out outlook.

[TSPIntel]

Some folks believe our current bull rally is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872. Laszlo Birinyi has said the average length and size of bull markets suggest the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013. This rally should continue another 32 months.

Specially if we take all times high in consideration

[TSPIntel]

My tea leaves predict that he is probably wrong. On the other hand, my coffee grounds predict that he may be right. I'll have to double-check my crystal ball.:laugh:

Any feedback from your crystal balls?

[jpcavin]

Any feedback from your crystal balls?

Some sideways movement before the next bull rally. :D

[Birchtree]

When the rush is on to "get me in at any price" there won't be much waiting around. It's either buy now or get left at the station. I enjoy this type of anxiety - it makes me money.

[TSPIntel]

When the rush is on to "get me in at any price" there won't be much waiting around. It's either buy now or get left at the station. I enjoy this type of anxiety - it makes me money.
I hear you: Everyone on board ? Everyone out ! :)

[TSPIntel]

Any idea when the DOW will hit the October 2007 14000 plus high again:confused:
In my opinion not this 2011 Summer:mad:

[Birchtree]

I predict before JTH has his birthday.

[Frixxxx]

Really BT? How about October? I just Don't see August as a breakthrough month since everyone won't be back until November!:laugh:

[TSPIntel]

The DOW is about to hit 13000:) still do not thing it will hit 14000 this summer, but it may go to 16000 in four to five years. Time will tell us.:confused:

[TSPIntel]

Any New Pronostics? DOW 16000 by the end of the year:confused:

[MrJohnRoss]

It seems like it's a very good possibility, especially since the change to the index. That's only a 3.9% gain from here.

25665

[TSPIntel]

DOW may go to 12800. The QE is ending. DOW also may go to 8,000 or 7,000 if it gets into stool mode by 2016. :confused: