What are the thoughts for 1/4/05??

[Safetyguy]

It will be really interesting to read Tom's comments tomorrow and get his opinion but in the meantime....

For those who are like Tom and are now 50 S and 50 I (or some other variant S & I variant), what will you do if the following scenarios play out by noon time-

a.Wilshire 4500drops further --dollar is up vs. foreign currency and the EAFE is down (S & I both sinking)

b. Wilshire 4500 is up, EAFE up and value of the dollar is down (S is up& I is up)

c. Everything is flat -- i.e. no major changes

d. I fund looks to be up but the S fund looks like a loser for the day.

e. S fund looks to be up but theI fund looks like a loser for the day

Right now, my opinion is that staying put is the best play for all the above scenarios but would like other opinions.

Thoughts???

[Spaf]

Safetyguy......................................... ..............Here is what they say:

Focus on the big picture. Follow the bull market and not individual stocks. The market has more influence on stock prices than any other factor. Even the best stocks decline in a bear market.

So what is the secret formula?


The key is to buy when the market signals the start of a bull trend.

Select leading stocks that are outperforming the market.

Sell when the bull trend has ended.

There are exceptions to this rule: Sell individual stocks if they move against the trend.
Ever heard of analysis paralysis? Many people study the market in such minute detail that they lose track of the big picture. It is almost impossible to predict the daily movement in the market with any degree of accuracy, but most investors can correctly predict the direction of the market over the next 5 or 10 years. The longer the time frame the greater the certainty.

Rgds :) Spaf

[coolhand]

Good response Spaf,

My current allocation is also 50/50 SI. I may move 30% to "G", but only if we get back to at least even. The market needs a rest andI suspect this will be a volatile week. My short term outlook is still positive.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Butch ;)

[FundSurfer]

OK, my take is that the market should still trend upward. However, I won't hold on forever. If tommorrow looks to be down, I will be focusing hard on Wednesday and it will be decision time. I'm 100% S so I'm not paying much attention to I-fund. To me it is giving mixed signals. Mixed signals means, look in a different direction. I agree with Tom on this one. If I is very volitile andunpredictable, sit on the sidelines... Tom should have followed his own advice :). Tom did the opposite of me the other day. I fund went up a bunch, next day still up but not as much -- Tom bought....whamo... big losing day. I'd be very careful about buying on a spike like that. I'm hoping the opposite occurs in S. The good thing for Tom is that I fund eventually had a couple more good days.

When you look at the Tally, the highest percentage funds had a good percentage of I-fund. There were a few people who timed the market pretty well, but most of the best gains were because of I-fund.

[Skip]

I gotmy penny on the first day of trading so Im going to stay 100%g a couple more days at least.... The dow broke its support and will "might" go down 100 points more.... The s fund also broke support ....
Dollar had a nice pop today... Need to see more than one day up on it....

Down volume really came in.. I think we will see some more down volume tuesday...

down volume nyse up 196%
nasdaq up 136%
amex up 210%

wilshire 4500 off 1.45%
sp 500 off .081%

Dollar rose today !!

We broke support on several charts today.... I belive we will see more downside. Then move higher Just over sold for now... 3rd week in Jan will be spookie also....

100%g 12/31/04
Skip

[lookywhatigot@yahoo.com]

I believe the C fund will start outperforming the S fund because fund managers will be looking for "safer" investments with rising interest rates and being the beginning of the year.

A lot of people are just selling off their losing investments for tax purposes right now.

[Spaf]

We have had red candlesticks like this before. It just happens.

Rgds ;) Spaf

[Ecurb]

Skip,

You said the S fund broke support...what doyou use to monitor the S fund? I usethe symbol 'NJH' (iShares S&P Midcap 400 index). Which as strange as it may seem, mirrors theNasdaq fairly close. Using 'Big charts' I see the index near or at the 25 day MA (est. at 130.20). NJH closed at 130.50. The last time it got close to the 25 day MA it bounced up. However, as Fundsurfer said, I'll be watching close, and should it go below that MA I will be back in cash (G fund). Like Fundsurfer I too got in the S fund at close of business today, but only 25%... currently 75G/25S. Let me know what you are using.

Thanks:)

Ecurb (Bruce)

[Skip]

Ecurb wrote:

Skip,

You said the S fund broke support...what do you use to monitor the S fund? I use the symbol 'NJH' (iShares S&P Midcap 400 index). Which as strange as it may seem, mirrors the Nasdaq fairly close. Using 'Big charts' I see the index near or at the 25 day MA (est. at 130.20). NJH closed at 130.50. The last time it got close to the 25 day MA it bounced up. However, as Fundsurfer said, I'll be watching close, and should it go below that MA I will be back in cash (G fund). Like Fundsurfer I too got in the S fund at close of business today, but only 25%... currently 75G/25S. Let me know what you are using.

Thanks:)

Ecurb (Bruce)


I use the wilshire 4500 index dwcp-x from tc2000 data
The s fund is not the mid cap fund or nasdaq... Its basily all the other stocks on the nyse
if you draw a support line up from 10/25 12/8-12/21 and 12/28 you will see the support break line... It looks like it might be down today also.... if the dow goes down to 10650 I think that will be the time to get back in for awhile... Only time will tell, but 1 of 3 things will happen...
1 its goes up:^
2 it goes down :U

3 it goes sideways:@

choose the right one or :s

Best of luck

Skip

[Mike]

The S&P is moving close to that red line at the bottom of its trading channel on Tom's chart... I'm guessing that line is around the 1187.5 level. If the S&P falls about 1 more point, it will hit that line... :shock:

Nasdaq is down almost 50 points.

Oh well. This will do wonders for sentiment, eh Tom? :^

[Safetyguy]

It's just after four EST - My best guess is that the COB price on I shares will be ~15.26 and S will be at ~ 14.25. (We won't know until 6 or 7 PMwhen they update the share prices on the TSP website.)

While this is a big drop today, it brings us to the share prices that existed back in December. (12/23 for the I fund; 12/10 for S). The last two days may feel like a giant tsunami hit us, but it may be more like missing the 4:10 PM commuter train home andhaving to wait until the 5 PM one.

The real questionis: are we at the beginning on a downturn or iswhat we just experienced a blip on the radar screen? The talking heads imply that latter,they aresaying that the last two days are due to profit takers. This may be true or theymay be suckering us a bit. Who knows?

I'm thinking (hoping) things will come back pretty shortly -- but then again I thought it wouldhappen today.

[cowboy]

I believe we are in the down turn and any one now should look at trading daily. It will go in waves I am sure but I feel if you plan on setting in it you might be sorry. If I remember right MT (Market Timer) stated that he thought January 18th would be the day to get out before markets go down. That is 10 trading days. This market may just take those 10 days and play cat & mouse then drop us in the litter box.

Good Luck to you!!

[coolhand]

I think it's just profit taking andthat market fundamentalsare stillfavorable.

I'm going to ride it for now. I rode a couple down-trends last year and still ended up a little over 15% for the year. I read today that the recent strength in the dollar will probably be short-lived. That's my expectation too. Never sure though.

For those that pulled outlast week, great job :^. I'm listening.

[coolhand]

cowboy wrote:
This market may just take those 10 days and play cat & mouse then drop us in the litter box.




:l:shock:

[Skip]

Gee all my long signals stoped out today.... Glad I was a couple of days ahead of the system.... Don't always happen.
Usually a day late and a dollar short...
But if you look back Its pretty flat on top on any index...
Since 10650 on the dow got passed Im going to stay on the side for another day or 2 and watch.....if we go below 10600 I see 10550 as a support... If we get a up side over 10770 I think the worst will be over...
On the side but still long on stocks for 2005, Just not now..
Looks like 2005 will be a in and out market...,But you can still make money

Just be Ali !Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee...

take that 2% and be free !

Skip

[Mike]

The low for the S&P today was below the lower red line... :shock: