I fund

[James48843]

I fund opens down, now down -2.25% this morning.

[federalfire]

New to this forum and the whole idea of moving money around just looking for some information.

I transferred all my money out of the I fund Friday morning on the advise of a coworker, just wondering if I made the right move and when I should look at going back in.

Thanks for the help

[eccougar]

If you moved out Friday morning, you made a great move.

[halibutk]

You made a good move. I was seriously thinking moving Friday but I kept to my plan which stated no moves until Tuesday (15th) and only if it triggers one on my moves. THis caused me to lose all gains so far this year but will prevent me from losing a bunch more.

Im out of I fund for at least until April 15 and then the model will determine if I am back in or to extend my safety plan a little bit longer. My stop-loss was actually reached on Friday but the restrictions to only trade twice a month limit when i activate trades. This took a lot of restraint and in hindsight I wish i had traded Friday, but I am committed to the plan I researched and instituted for at least another 3 years.

Nobody can predict the future, but past history indicates that there will be a rebound later this year. This comes from the 2007/2008 crash or the 1995 quake in Japan which all showed huge losses for a month or more than a massive rebound. I hope I catch most of the rebound

[Scout333]

Who would've thought we'd ever be grateful for ONLY a 2.2% loss in the International Fund? Ouch!:sick:

[Gumby]

Who would've thought we'd ever be grateful for ONLY a 2.2% loss in the International Fund? Ouch!:sick:

Lets see how much of a minus fair value we get from FRTIB tonight.....

[Frixxxx]

The day they get this Nuclear issue over and done with, I will be 100% I for the recovery!:cool:

GO JAPAN! You can get throught this!

[Birchtree]

Man you must be crazy - why would anyone in their right mind want to own the I fund particularly now that prices are golden.

[tsptalk]

The share prices haven't been posted yet. I'm guessing they are trying to figure out what price to put on the I-fund. Why don't I trust them? :suspicious:

[Intrepid_Timer]

The share prices haven't been posted yet. I'm guessing they are trying to figure out what price to put on the I-fund. Why don't I trust them? :suspicious:

I think it may have something to do with daylight savings time. Everything should be pushed back an hour from where it was.........

[tsptalk]

The Nikkei is currently up 6% in early trading.

[Gumby]

The Nikkei is currently up 6% in early trading.

Maybe we won't get a big -FV today. They probably are on hold in a call to Bernake to help them calculate an unfair value according to the FED's inflation index...... My guess is the only fair value will be to Barclays.:D

[JTH]

They haven't posted the share prices yet. Must be taking them a while to figure out the I-Fund :rolleyes:

[tsptalk]

They haven't posted the share prices yet. Must be taking them a while to figure out the I-Fund :rolleyes:


The share prices haven't been posted yet. I'm guessing they are trying to figure out what price to put on the I-fund. Why don't I trust them? :suspicious:
Great minds...

[tsptalk]

-2.68%

[Steel_Magnolia]

-2.68%
Could have been a lot worse than that. I was in EFU, the inverse fund for the I Fund analog. That was great at the opening bell but the I Fund gained almost the whole day after that and I got stopped out.

I Fund is cheap now. Just wish I knew how much cheaper it was going to get. <this is Ann rolling her eyes> LOL

[halibutk]

Until the nuclear thing is over I am not moving back into the I fund. To much potential to go down with the uncertainty right now. Im thinking it will decrease at least another 10% or more in my opinion.

My model states i should wait till around April 14 to look at moving back in, but I may have to stray a little to catch a deal once the nuclear thing is over.

Hey I got 30 years till retirement might as well be a little risky and try my luck.

[EmoDx]

Until the nuclear thing is over I am not moving back into the I fund. To much potential to go down with the uncertainty right now. Im thinking it will decrease at least another 10% or more in my opinion.

My model states i should wait till around April 14 to look at moving back in, but I may have to stray a little to catch a deal once the nuclear thing is over.

Hey I got 30 years till retirement might as well be a little risky and try my luck.

Right before the Japan catastrophe the Euro was pegged to decline by %1.25 by April 15th and by close to %3.5 by June 15th. This was an average of 5 different banks. I was thinking we would get a short term pop in the I fund before the Euro declined but right now, I think you could safely be out of the I fund until mid May and still be able to get in near the low.

- E

[Tennvol]

I fund is down 3.19% in after hours trading..it will be interesting to see how the valuation works on this.

[SkyPilot]

Lot's of speculation that the USD is heading downward and busting through some resistance. I fund a good move, or will economic factors bring down foreign markets as well?

[Sensei]

It's "Golden Week" in Japan, and since today is a national holiday and the WSJ hasn't updated its reading for the Nikkei, I'm guessing the market in Tokyo is closed. What does this mean for the I-fund? Does it just move based on the other 75% of its holdings?

[tsptalk]

Basically, yes.

[James48843]

Foreign markets down big today.

All down from 1.5% to 2%.

not pretty.

[James48843]

Another huge down day in European markets.

DAX down 3% right now, and CAC down 4.97% right now. HUGE down day.

[dpmp]

Anyone still in I fund? It hasn't been doing too well lately (since the "correction")

[sillbeer]

I'm 100% in the I fund. I've been wondering if I should jump ship or just ride it out. I think at this point it is kinda late to move over to safer grounds. Am I dumb for sticking with the I fund? I had my money 60-20-20 C,S, & I about a month ago and decided to move 100% to I.

[Birchtree]

I plan to continue my ride - 20C and 80I - just because I can.

[rangerray]

I moved to I, 100% this morning. At least I think I did this morning. I haven't gotten the e-mail yet.

[Viva_La_Migra]

What's the (U)FV going to be today? Is anyone still guestimating that?

[Afishegg]

I fund is having a phenomenal day, I'm tempted to wade in a bit, however I'm real leery of what could still happen in places such as Portugal,Spain,Italy and Ireland. Many experts have been saying that despite all the positive news lately, in the grand scheme of things the world is still teetering on the verge of a severe recession. Any thoughts?

[Birchtree]

Negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market.

[Afishegg]

Negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market.

Im sorry birch but I have to respectfully disagree. I check all the major news and financial channels on a daily basis, CNN bloomberg financial times etc etc....and way before markets open, when they all tend to have negative financial headlines...the markets tend to follow suit by heading south, especially lately with the european headlines, thats why we would have so many wild swings. IMHO...

[Nordic]

It's been fun in the I fund lately, but with today's significant drop in the dollar, we are again approaching the 74 level which has acted as solid support the past few years. Question is, will the dollar fall below that level or bounce off it again and head back up, hampering I fund performance?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax)

[Happy_Trails]

I'm hoping I has a bit in the tank after today. For tomorrow, I'm 50% I and 50% S.

[nnuut]

It's been fun in the I fund lately, but with today's significant drop in the dollar, we are again approaching the 74 level which has acted as solid support the past few years. Question is, will the dollar fall below that level or bounce off it again and head back up, hampering I fund performance?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax)
Keep in in mind that our government wants to devalue the dollar so we can compete with emerging markets and pay off our debts at a lower interest rate! Oh contra!

[Boghie]

To All,

I know the 'I Fund' holds Japanese and British equties, but the rest of the assets are Euro denominated. I will not ask what your opinion on the growth/dump of the fund, but...

My question is: Is the very existence of the 'I Fund' dependent on the universal currency of the Euro? Can the 'I Fund' exist with minimal fees if equities are denominated with 15 currencies?

Yowser and Yuk...

[Birchtree]

A weak euro will help the I fund companies with their exports - that's got to be a positive. The Japanese just pushed their yen lower to help with their exports.

[James48843]

Can the 'I Fund' exist with minimal fees if equities are denominated with 15 currencies?

Yowser and Yuk...

The "I" fund existed before the Euro existed.

Any questions?

[Pill]

Its been Black Friday and Cyber Monday I fund sale for a while now. I am really looking forward to the day my 100% contributions takes off.

I may be waiting for a while.... But thats ok I will continue buying in.

[James48843]

Dax up 3% his morning. FSTE up 2%.

[valleymd]

The I-Fund has been under-performing the C and S fund for most of 2011. I currently have an allocation of 15% in the I-Fund (which is less than the percentages of I-Fund in the L2040 and L2050). I'm wondering if I should dump the I-Fund all together and send it to the S-Fund instead.

What does the future look like for the I-Fund? Would you Buy, Sell or Hold if you were in my situation? With Europe still in turmoil will the I-Fund continue to lag the C and S funds, or will it shoot up to make up for lost time in 2012?

[RealMoneyIssues]

The I-Fund has been under-performing the C and S fund for most of 2011. I currently have an allocation of 15% in the I-Fund (which is less than the percentages of I-Fund in the L2040 and L2050). I'm wondering if I should dump the I-Fund all together and send it to the S-Fund instead.

What does the future look like for the I-Fund? Would you Buy, Sell or Hold if you were in my situation? With Europe still in turmoil will the I-Fund continue to lag the C and S funds, or will it shoot up to make up for lost time in 2012?

I don't touch the I fund because it doesn't track with the US markets that I follow. Just my 2 cents :D

[tsptalk]

The I-Fund has been under-performing the C and S fund for most of 2011. I currently have an allocation of 15% in the I-Fund (which is less than the percentages of I-Fund in the L2040 and L2050). I'm wondering if I should dump the I-Fund all together and send it to the S-Fund instead.

What does the future look like for the I-Fund? Would you Buy, Sell or Hold if you were in my situation? With Europe still in turmoil will the I-Fund continue to lag the C and S funds, or will it shoot up to make up for lost time in 2012?
Welcome valleymd. I don't know what the future brings for the I-fund, but as long as the dollar trending higher, I would stick with the U.S. funds. If the dollar breaks its trend (and the euro breaks its downtrend), then the I-fund would come back in play.

[James48843]

Nikkie 225 up big again this morning.

Last friday's U.S. markets upswing is carrying over this morning into Japan.

Currently, Nikkei is up +1.10%.

Good luck out there!

[James48843]

Bear flags waving hard this morning-

DAX is now down -2.93%. That's a LOT for one day.

I am waiting another day or two for the perfect time to jump back in. I am thinking we'll get a solid downturn today and tomorrow- a great buying opportunity soon.

[James48843]

Note-

There is no Russian stock component of the I fund but....for what it's worth-

the Russian stock market just declared an emergency and suspended all trading. I have no idea what is going on there.



Russian Stock Market Has Suspended Trading

Source: Micex Group RTS Group (Russian Stock Exchange)

The technical suspension of trading to be extended

The situation has been recognized as an emergency. Further actions will be announced shortly.

Read more: News and events &mdash; MICEX-RTS Exchange (http://rts.micex.ru/n610/?nt=201)

For what it's worth, the MICEX (Russian market) was down 2.39% for the day today when trading was suspended. Not sure what is going on, and very little in the financial news places.

[James48843]

Here is what the Russian stock exchange is now saying:

from: News and events &mdash; MICEX-RTS Exchange (http://rts.micex.ru/n614/?nt=201)



24.04.2012 12:27

Measures taken by MICEX-RTS concerning the outage on the Exchange"s Main Market on April 23, 2012

On April 23, 2012 the Main market sector of the MICEX-RTS Group's Securities market suffered technical problems, i.e. at 5.45pm MSK market data in the order book of market participants ceased to be updated.

At 5.56pm MSK the MICEX Stock Exchange General Director announced that trading was to be suspended until 6.56pm MSK in order to contain the situation.

At 6.45pm MSK the suspension was extended until 7.35pm MSK and then until 7.55pm MSK.
Effects of the 120-minute outage were not eliminated and at 8.10pm MSK the General Director announced the emergency situation in the Main Market sector based on clause 1.13.9 of the Trading rules of CJSC MICEX Stock Exchange.

Range of organizational and technical measures was taken to recover from the emergency situation and by 9.30pm MSK the operability of the trading system were restored.

To generate the representative closing price and protect investors' rights the following schedule of trading was established:


9.50pm - 10.10pm – trading period in the Main trading mode of the Main trading session;
9.50pm - 10.10pm – execution of trades in the Negotiated trades mode and repo trades.
10.20pm – close of the main trading session.


The Exchange applied to the Bank of Russia for extension of operating time of the multivoyage payment processing system in order to minimize implications of the emergency situation.

Decisions taken by the Directorate of the Exchange and competent actions of Exchange's specialists allowed trading members to close their operations including cancel orders, perform clearing and fulfill obligations under executed trades even under the outage circumstances.

MICEX-RTS realizes the consequences that the outage could bring to the market and apologizes to trading members. The Exchange firmly intends to detect and examine causes of the disruption.

For further information, please contact the Public Relations Department (http://rts.micex.ru/n614/?nt=201#) at (495) 363-3232.


Not sure what happened, but it was some kind of unusual event.

[Pill]

I have been buying the I fund like it’s on sale. If this happens should I be running from the I Fund? Honestly, I have never fully understood the I fund. Silly me, and contributing 100% to it :).

How can we benefit from this (not if it happens, because it already going on)? I have heard/read, 5-10 yrs from now the US dollar will not be the sole source of oil transactions.

Ditching the Dollar by Marin Katusa (http://lewrockwell.com/orig13/katusa2.1.1.html)

I'm not sure if this is the best article on the subject as I am limited on time right now and can't fully read up on the subject. But, my father in law who follow currencies religiously as he is a collector and investor just got back from a trip to Hong Kong, and was sharing with me on the topic.

[James48843]

CAC
DAX
FSTE all up this morning on word of U.S. election results.


Plus- Colorado voted to legalize recreational marijuana and tax it.

Tourism expected to explode in that Rocky Mountain High state.

[clester]

Anyone notice the bad quotes on Efa on bigcharts and stockcharts? Only yahoo has a good quote.

[clester]

Anyone notice the bad quotes on Efa on bigcharts and stockcharts? Only yahoo has a good quote.
I found a Morningstar site that showed price (what yahoo has) and an indicative value which is based on the prices of the underlying stocks (what everyone else quotes). I would think they are usually very close but today there is a big difference. Which will TSP use? I guess we will have to wait and see. It's about a 1% difference today. That is a lot. Is that where the fair value comes in?

[clester]

I found a Morningstar site that showed price (what yahoo has) and an indicative value which is based on the prices of the underlying stocks (what everyone else quotes). I would think they are usually very close but today there is a big difference. Which will TSP use? I guess we will have to wait and see. It's about a 1% difference today. That is a lot. Is that where the fair value comes in?
Now I noticed the actual ETF price is the same. It's just that one shows up over 1% and the other shows flat.

[clester]

I found a Morningstar site that showed price (what yahoo has) and an indicative value which is based on the prices of the underlying stocks (what everyone else quotes). I would think they are usually very close but today there is a big difference. Which will TSP use? I guess we will have to wait and see. It's about a 1% difference today. That is a lot. Is that where the fair value comes in?
Ok. Perhaps this is what tsp uses for the price it assigns the I fund. From the site above EFA Chart iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF Chart (http://quote.morningstar.com/ETF/chart.aspx?t=EFA&region=usa&culture=en_US&ops=&cur=USD&lan=en_US&productcode=COM)

The difference between the 2 percentages is what we got .76 %. I will monitor it to see if it is consistent.

[clester]

Ok. Perhaps this is what tsp uses for the price it assigns the I fund. From the site above EFA Chart iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF Chart (http://quote.morningstar.com/ETF/chart.aspx?t=EFA&region=usa&culture=en_US&ops=&cur=USD&lan=en_US&productcode=COM)

The difference between the 2 percentages is what we got .76 %. I will monitor it to see if it is consistent.
Today is different on the site above because the indicative value is 1.2% and the etf price is .6% and the chart shows a different price but today it's about 1.2% also. Which one is what Tsp uses? I'm guessing the value on the chart which is 1.2%. Well see tonight.

[PLANO]

I'm following this conversation and hope you guys figure this out. I'm just happy to be have been fully invested in the I Fund since 11/30 :)

[clester]

If we get what the chart price says from the Morningstar site above we should get +0.77%.

[clester]

If we get what the chart price says from the Morningstar site above we should get +0.77%.
We got .99% which does not correlate with any exact price on the Morningstar site but it's better than just having the Efa quote. However you don't have charting tools there so I'll keep using Efa.

[James48843]

Note: Japanese Stock Market holidays for 2013:

2013

Jan. 1
New Year's Day


Jan. 2, 3
Exchange Holiday


Jan. 14
Coming of Age Day


Feb. 11
National Foundation Day


Mar. 20
Vernal Equinox


Apr. 29
Showa Day


May 3
Constitution Memorial Day


May 4
Greenery Day


May 5
Children's Day


May 6
Holiday


Jul. 15
Marine Day


Sep. 16
Respect for the Aged Day


Sep. 23
Autumnal equinox


Oct. 14
Health and Sports Day


Nov. 3
Culture Day


Nov. 4
Holiday


Nov. 23
Labor Thanksgiving Day


Dec. 23
Emperor's Birthday


Dec. 31
Exchange Holiday

[James48843]

for what it;s worth- Europe is reacting with a huge upside to the fiscal cliff vote.

DAX now up 2.25%,

FTSE also up more than 2%.

It's going to be a good day for the "I fund.

[BigJohn]

for what it;s worth- Europe is reacting with a huge upside to the fiscal cliff vote.

DAX now up 2.25%,

FTSE also up more than 2%.

It's going to be a good day for the "I fund.


I sure hope so seeing how the I fund was up around 1.5% yesterday and the share price only went up .66%. My uneducated guess is the timing of yesterday's big move was later afternoon, after the pricing for the I fund was set. I am hoping for some payback from yesterday to add to today's move.

[James48843]

Just remember this-

Japan makes up about 23% of the value of the I fund, and Japan is on holiday yesterday, today AND tomorrow and the market is closed there. So the big jump in I will happen when the Japanese markets reopen on Friday and have three days of trading to make up.

Bounce ahead.

[BigJohn]

Just remember this-

Japan makes up about 23% of the value of the I fund, and Japan is on holiday yesterday, today AND tomorrow and the market is closed there. So the big jump in I will happen when the Japanese markets reopen on Friday and have three days of trading to make up.

Bounce ahead.


hmm...

[jpcavin]

Sounds like I need to stay put to get my FV? :(

[James48843]

Japan stock market holiday today.

January 14- " Coming of Age Day"

Happy Holiday everyone!

[Sensei]

Japan stock market holiday today.

January 14- " Coming of Age Day"

Happy Holiday everyone!
It's a fun holiday for everyone turning 20. The girls all dress up in kimonos, the guys mostly wear western style suits these days, but the tough punks don the more traditional garb. On Sunday, they have ceremonies at all the town and city halls, and those tough punks fill the backs of mini-trucks and drag the neighborhood, drinking and waving fans and flags. For the most part, it's all in good fun. If you're not 20, though, you're kind of on the outside looking in. So it's just a day of rest for most folks.

[James48843]

It's a fun holiday for everyone turning 20. The girls all dress up in kimonos, the guys mostly wear western style suits these days, but the tough punks don the more traditional garb. ..


Can you post some pictures for us? I'd love to learn more. thanks!

Some "Coming of Age day" history, thanks to the newspaper Stars and Stripes:
http://www.stripes.com/news/coming-of-age-day-a-big-event-for-japanese-youths-is-steeped-in-tradition-1.15223

[Sensei]

I don't have any of my own pictures, and since it's bedtime for me, I'm going to take the easy way out and just post a link to Yahoo! pictures.

These are images of well-behaved women and men dressed up for their local ceremonies:
「�人���検索�果 - Yahoo!検索（画�） (http://image.search.yahoo.co.jp/search?ei=UTF-8&fr=top_ga1_sa&p=%E6%88%90%E4%BA%BA%E5%BC%8F#mode%3Dsearch)

And here are some of the less savory characters you want to avoid on this day:
「ヤンã‚*ーæˆ�人å¼�ã€�ã�®æ¤œç´¢çµ�æžœ - Yahoo!検索（画åƒ�） (http://image.search.yahoo.co.jp/search?p=%E3%83%A4%E3%83%B3%E3%82%AD%E3%83%BC%E6%8 8%90%E4%BA%BA%E5%BC%8F&aq=-1&oq=&ei=UTF-8#mode%3Dsearch)

:D

[James48843]

Ouch- Japan got clobbered last night- Nikkei down 2.56%.

Not looking good today for the "I" fund.

We'll see how bad it is shortly.

[NiteFlyer]

Another bad start for the I-fund. Euro is down around .5% this morning.

[Kaufmanrider]

Another bad start for the I-fund. Euro is down around .5% this morning.

Isn't Euro being down against the dollar good for the I-Fund? Or is it vice-versa?

I fund just plain confuses me, but I am in it 100%. I guess I like to be surprised at night when TSP posts the daily returns.

[NiteFlyer]

Isn't Euro being down against the dollar good for the I-Fund? Or is it vice-versa?

I fund just plain confuses me, but I am in it 100%. I guess I like to be surprised at night when TSP posts the daily returns.

USD down versus Euro = Good for the I-Fund (think of it as when the foreign currency is up, you would get more US money back when you sell stock based on that foreign currency). So, a share worth 10 Euros when the exchange rate is 1 for 1 would give you $10 when sold. If the Euro was worth 1.1 USD, you would get back $11 when sold.

[NiteFlyer]

Nice futures price on EFA this morning :)

[JimmyJoe]

Nice futures price on EFA this morning :)
Yeah, the I fund is gonna do ok.

[NiteFlyer]

Euro Reaches Highest Level Against Dollar Since 2011 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/dollar-declines-2nd-day-versus-yen-before-confidence-fed.html)

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/dollar-declines-2nd-day-versus-yen-before-confidence-fed.html)Dollar is also down vs. the yen and with the I-fund gaining nicely the currencies should make this a really nice day :D

[Sensei]

Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed today, after the Nikkei being down 1.8% on Friday. If our markets close even or green on Monday, one might expect the Nikkei to bounce on Tuesday. So, logical thought might favor an advantage in the I fund on Tuesday. Of course, the I fund makes little to no sense to me, and since I'm already 100%S, I'm not going to waste an IFT. But for anyone on the sidelines looking to get in, this could be an opportunity.

Or not. LOL.

[clester]

Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed today, after the Nikkei being down 1.8% on Friday. If our markets close even or green on Monday, one might expect the Nikkei to bounce on Tuesday. So, logical thought might favor an advantage in the I fund on Tuesday. Of course, the I fund makes little to no sense to me, and since I'm already 100%S, I'm not going to waste an IFT. But for anyone on the sidelines looking to get in, this could be an opportunity.

Or not. LOL.
Although the I fund has a good chunck of Japan it never seems to move the index much. At least in years past. It has been going up lately as the yen weakens which offset each other for us. The feel I get for the movement is the Ftse.

[Sensei]

Although the I fund has a good chunck of Japan it never seems to move the index much. At least in years past. It has been going up lately as the yen weakens which offset each other for us. The feel I get for the movement is the Ftse.
As far as individual nations go, I believe Japan is represented most heavily in the I fund (a little over 20%, if my memory serves me). But the combo of France, UK, and Germany together certainly outweighs that. So, yeah, you're right. Nevertheless, the I fund was down .60% Monday, and the Nikkei just bounced back 1.94%. It will be interesting to see where the I fund goes on Tuesday.

[JTH]

Although the I fund has a good chunck of Japan it never seems to move the index much. At least in years past. It has been going up lately as the yen weakens which offset each other for us. The feel I get for the movement is the Ftse.


As far as individual nations go, I believe Japan is represented most heavily in the I fund (a little over 20%, if my memory serves me). But the combo of France, UK, and Germany together certainly outweighs that. So, yeah, you're right. Nevertheless, the I fund was down .60% Monday, and the Nikkei just bounced back 1.94%. It will be interesting to see where the I fund goes on Tuesday.

I too found it perplexing, I didn't see enough movement in the EFA/USD to justify -.60%

22342

[clester]

Thanks JTH. Great Britain, EU, and Japan are basically it. Those are the currencies you need to watch.

[clester]

Thanks JTH. Great Britain, EU, and Japan are basically it. Those are the currencies you need to watch.


Top 10 Holdings (13.2% of Total Assets)







Company
Symbol
% Assets


NESTLE SA CHAM ET VE
NSRGF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NSRGF)
1.96


HSBC Holdings PLC
HBCYF.L
1.79


NOVARTIS AG BASL
NVSEF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NVSEF)
1.36


ROCHE HLDG AG DIV RT
RHHVF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RHHVF)
1.34


BP PLC
BPAQF.L
1.22


Vodafone Group PLC
VODPF.L
1.16


Royal Dutch Shell PLC Class A
RYDAF.L
1.14


Toyota Motor Corp
7203
1.13


BHP Billiton Ltd
BHPLF.AX
1.09


SANOFI
SAN.PA (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SAN.PA)
1.01

[clester]

Top 10 Holdings (13.2% of Total Assets)







Company
Symbol
% Assets


NESTLE SA CHAM ET VE
NSRGF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NSRGF)
1.96


HSBC Holdings PLC
HBCYF.L
1.79


NOVARTIS AG BASL
NVSEF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NVSEF)
1.36


ROCHE HLDG AG DIV RT
RHHVF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RHHVF)
1.34


BP PLC
BPAQF.L
1.22


Vodafone Group PLC
VODPF.L
1.16


Royal Dutch Shell PLC Class A
RYDAF.L
1.14


Toyota Motor Corp
7203
1.13


BHP Billiton Ltd
BHPLF.AX
1.09


SANOFI
SAN.PA (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SAN.PA)
1.01






The Usd was strong vs GBP is prob why Efa was down that much.

[RealMoneyIssues]

Have you taken into account FV, or better yet (here comes a conspiracy theory) that Blackrock manipulates the I fund price based on how many folks are buying in or selling to maximize their profit on the price spread (bid to ask)???

[clester]

Have you taken into account FV, or better yet (here comes a conspiracy theory) that Blackrock manipulates the I fund price based on how many folks are buying in or selling to maximize their profit on the price spread (bid to ask)???
Manipulation? Surely not. :)

[JTH]

Although the I fund has a good chunck of Japan it never seems to move the index much. At least in years past. It has been going up lately as the yen weakens which offset each other for us. The feel I get for the movement is the Ftse.

I'm sorry I hate to repeat myself, but I will for the benefit of our newcomers, this fund is not for the inexperienced.

[JTH]

For you I-Funders, this would seem like a probable PO for the Dollar

22355

[JTH]

UUP's dollar ETF has clearly broken down below it's channel

22356

[skycophigh]

JTH. what does this suggest????? buy I???


UOTE=JTH;394417]UUP's dollar ETF has clearly broken down below it's channel

22356[/QUOTE]

[Sensei]

Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed today, after the Nikkei being down 1.8% on Friday. If our markets close even or green on Monday, one might expect the Nikkei to bounce on Tuesday. So, logical thought might favor an advantage in the I fund on Tuesday. Of course, the I fund makes little to no sense to me, and since I'm already 100%S, I'm not going to waste an IFT. But for anyone on the sidelines looking to get in, this could be an opportunity.


Well, looks like I called it for one day. Now the Nikkei went down another 1% while the European indexes are stagnating. The yen pulled back a bit, so I assume the dollar is advancing. So the I fund will probably dump its gains again tomorrow. FWIW, like JTH, I don't play the I-fund either. Like Birchtree says, it's only a two-seat potty, and he's got pretty wide cheeks. I'm just posting in this thread for fun, and I guess to learn a little bit more.

[clester]

This morning the dollar is stronger vs pound and yen and weaker vs euro. Averaging I get about a -0.3% currency effect.

[clester]

This morning the dollar is stronger vs pound and yen and weaker vs euro. Averaging I get about a -0.3% currency effect.
Taking into account their stock markets I get about a -.6% more for about a -.9% total. so, yeah EFA will probably give back it's gain today if it holds.

[clester]

Taking into account their stock markets I get about a -.6% more for about a -.9% total. so, yeah EFA will probably give back it's gain today if it holds.
The currency risk is too high to be in EFA IMO. JPY and GBP are big downtrends against Usd which really hurts the I fund. The euro is doing ok but but it can't override the othe two.

[JTH]

EFA fell just short of my price objective, I'm a little disappointed...

22374

[JimmyJoe]

EFA fell just short of my price objective, I'm a little disappointed...

22374
The I fund fair value giveth and taketh. It has out performed the other two funds this week and so I'm sticking with it. It simply owes us considering this month's lack of gains. It's just beginning to get going.

[JTH]

The I fund fair value giveth and taketh. It has out performed the other two funds this week and so I'm sticking with it. It simply owes us considering this month's lack of gains. It's just beginning to get going.

Lol, Jimmy I love you (man love), but don't go spreading rumors that just aren't true. The I-Fund has underperformed the S-Fund 9 out of the last 10 days. On the 5-day price performance 1 out of 10 days (and tied once), on the 10-day price performance 2 out of 10 days. The S-Fund is the best fund to be in, not because it outperforms the I-fund, but because it is consistent, stable, less risk, sometimes the slower option is the better long-term strategy.

22389

[JTH]

Man, once again the I-Fund drops a turd in the toilet that won't flush. Never mind the price objective, it's busted. :(

2240122402

[JimmyJoe]

Lol, Jimmy I love you (man love), but don't go spreading rumors that just aren't true. The I-Fund has underperformed the S-Fund 9 out of the last 10 days. On the 5-day price performance 1 out of 10 days (and tied once), on the 10-day price performance 2 out of 10 days. The S-Fund is the best fund to be in, not because it outperforms the I-fund, but because it is consistent, stable, less risk, sometimes the slower option is the better long-term strategy.

22389
Page one of Tsptalk showing returns. For this week thus far, the S is at .46%, the I at .48%. This by the way is not a sprint. Give it a month and the two funds will even out, that's to say the I fund will give us some nice gains. I like your chart, though.

[rktect1]

I believe one of the first things I read a few years back was written by JTH
I have to paraphrase but he said that market timing isn't about who can be in the longest but rather reduce your exposure to market risk. Less days for bigger profit. He said it way better but if your idea is to sit in a fund for months at a time you may very well not get the maximum reward

[Birchtree]

Sometimes if you want to make money in the markets, you have to make the trades that few others are comfortable with - today that means the I fund. I prefer the trade not get crowded.

[Birchtree]

Often times taking the road less traveled leads to higher returns. Nobody is omnipotent and humility in the markets is always a virtue.

[sniper]

dollar is killing the I fund, helicopter ben needs to buy more bonds

[Frixxxx]

The dollar will align shortly enough.....Patience, a virtue, is well practiced in these situations.

[Birchtree]

From Zachary Karabell regarding Europe: "The rush to declare the future bleak has obscured the fact that no one knows the outcome of an unprecedented event. No one. The worst course in the face of uncertainty is blind faith in conventional wisdom and past patterns. The best is to stay humble in the face of the unknown, creative and unideological about solutions, and open to the possibility that as quickly as things turned sour they can reverse. And yet, if things come to a halt more quickly than ever before, they could also restart more quickly than ever before. That is not to say they will, only that the possibility is more than marginal. And there are signs things are not everywhere as bad as conventional wisdom suggests." I'll not move out of the I fund until amoeba takes a 100% position. That means I'm cool for awhile longer. The same dollar you had last year now buys you much less in terms of the I fund than it did a year ago.

[Birchtree]

Heinz opens doors to emerging markets for Berkshire - Buffett you been following the I fund thread.

[JimmyJoe]

I capitulate. The I fund for now is dead. Maybe in a few months I'll get in it again. Europe is behaving like a leach, sucking off my gains made in the C and S fund. Slowly getting out of the I fund.

[JimmyJoe]

FV today up. So maybe we'll start to get something out of the race horse next week.

[sniper]

I capitulate. The I fund for now is dead. Maybe in a few months I'll get in it again. Europe is behaving like a leach, sucking off my gains made in the C and S fund. Slowly getting out of the I fund.

capitulate is such a strong word, there's no shame in dodging a down swing if you see it coming. just make sure you're back on the train after the pull back. being a bear for too long doesn't pay in the TSP :)

[JimmyJoe]

capitulate is such a strong word, there's no shame in dodging a down swing if you see it coming. just make sure you're back on the train after the pull back. being a bear for too long doesn't pay in the TSP :)
I hated to get out, even a little. Promised myself that I'd never go back to the G fund, even for 8%. That's the capitulation. Thanks for the encouragement. I'll be back in it even if I have to 1% my way to 100% by the end of the month, if the I fund goes up. Have a good weekend.

[Bquat]

I hated to get out, even a little. Promised myself that I'd never go back to the G fund, even for 8%. That's the capitulation. Thanks for the encouragement. I'll be back in it even if I have to 1% my way to 100% by the end of the month, if the I fund goes up. Have a good weekend. Don't use capituation. Use Capital Preservation when you exit after a gain.:)

[JTH]

Well, like I've said before, the I-Fund burns me up, perhaps not the Fund itself, but more so the tools we have on hand to analyze the charts. IMHO EFA & The dollar are difficult the apply technical analysis to. Where else could you find two parallel channels of relatively equal spacing, one up and one down, both within the same week.

22426

[JimmyJoe]

I completely concur. I guess I'll get out of it more quickly. Totally unreliable. If I'm going to risk being in it, I may as well be in funds that show current values throughout the trading day, and at days end. As I ponder this, I don't think I'll ever get in this funny fund, ever again.

[Birchtree]

During our great recession corporate profits kept rolling along setting records - the same thing is going to happen in Europe - you just gotta have staying power. It's not the European stock indexes that make up the I fund but rather individual large cap companies. They will be trading into the emerging markets where growth is ample.

[JimmyJoe]

During our great recession corporate profits kept rolling along setting records - the same thing is going to happen in Europe - you just gotta have staying power. It's not the European stock indexes that make up the I fund but rather individual large cap companies. They will be trading into the emerging markets where growth is ample.
Great advice about the I fund and the market in general. Most trackers may only gradually, incrementally leave the I fund. It has got turn up, no doubt. I will keep the I fund in my portfolio, but have most of my monies in the C and S. 31C, 31S, and an 8 point difference from what I had in my I fund, now it's at 30. G at 8, only temporarily. One thing this difference between the funds has taught me, is to not totally capitulate (wrong word to use when talking stocks I've found), but to make adjustments incrementally. This will make me continue to maintain self belief and to do what is right for me in this market. Others out there must feel the same way if they plan to make money in this market. Wild swings from one fund to another based on fear is almost always regretted. Belief in this market takes a strong will, commitment.

[Birchtree]

In reference to Europe and the I fund, bull runs start when things look bleak and often keep going even though things get bleaker for several months. The I fund will appreciate before things start getting better and will undoubtedly out perform the S fund in my estimation.

[JTH]

Month-to-date the I-fund is # 1049 on the tracker, almost dead bottom.

[JTH]

Month-to-date the I-fund is 1049 on the tracker, almost dead bottom.

YTD I-fund share price peaked at 21.9902 on 1 Feb. From there the low was on 7 Feb at 21.5207 for a -2.13%

[mehougar]

The I Fund would not open on Presidents Day correct? Since the index is actually a US index?

Would then Tuesday be similar to a double trading day with the I fund? Can anyone explain it to me. Thanks.

[nnuut]

The "I" is a US fund, markets closed and TSP. The action tomorrow in all countries in the "I" will continue and count for the next day.

[James48843]

Japan Nikkei 225 jumped +2% at the open monday.

[JTH]

Japan Nikkei 225 jumped +2% at the open monday.

Was it closed last Friday?

[RealMoneyIssues]

Japan Nikkei 225 jumped +2% at the open monday.

Nikkei | Nikkei Index | Nikkei Dow Index (http://www.investing.com/indices/japan-ni225)


Was it closed last Friday?

Looks like it

[Sensei]

Was it closed last Friday?


Nikkei | Nikkei Index | Nikkei Dow Index (http://www.investing.com/indices/japan-ni225)



Looks like it
Tokyo Stock Exchange should have been open Friday 2/15. I believe it was closed on Monday of last week. At any rate, as clester has been pointing out, the performance of the Nikkei has been somewhat offset by the weakened yen, which tends to result in a stronger dollar, in turn suppressing the value of our I fund. Plus, in recent weeks, the Nikkei has been very volatile in terms of being up 2% one day, then down 1.5% the next. It has been in a general uptrend though.

In short, I have no clue how the Nikkei's 2% gain today will hold up tomorrow, nor how it will impact the I-fund. However, based on Europe and our futures as of this moment (both flat), Japan's stock performance lately seems more correlated to the value of the yen than to the direction of Western markets.

[mehougar]

Is there any breakdown to which countries the I Fund is invested in? I thought that I had seen something at somepoint but I have been searching this morning and cannot find anything.

I am considering moving money to the I fund because I feel there is going to be a stock market correction soon in the US based on the sustained and steady rise of the stock prices.. but I have limited knowledge of the I fund.

Also how do the dividends work for the I fund? I saw that the index has been paying out dividends in June and December. Are those dividends then added to the I fund those days?

[James48843]

Is there any breakdown to which countries the I Fund is invested in? I thought that I had seen something at somepoint but I have been searching this morning and cannot find anything.

I am considering moving money to the I fund because I feel there is going to be a stock market correction soon in the US based on the sustained and steady rise of the stock prices.. but I have limited knowledge of the I fund.

As of 2009, Japan makes up about 23% and was the single largest holding nation of the EAFE fund, on which the I fund is based. There are 21 developed countries. United Kingdom is next at 19.9%. France is 10.9%, Germany 8.7%, Switzerland 8.4%. Australia 6.0%. The rest are less than that. See http://www.tsptalk.com/images/2009-i-fund-benchmark-evaluation.pdf for a summary. Note- the table contained in that docuent is slightly off (skewed). Drop one row to align properly and flip the last entry of 6%. Somebody made an error preparing that table.



Also how do the dividends work for the I fund? I saw that the index has been paying out dividends in June and December. Are those dividends then added to the I fund those days? They are added in, but it isn't necessarily on the same day. Based on past experience it could be as much as three days later, or even a small amount worked in to the fair value calculation later.

[nnuut]

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/IFund.pdf:D
22449

[mehougar]

Thanks. So using that data and the numbers in the table from nnuut could you make the assumption that each of these markets will then act similar to their index (i.e. Nikkei 225 for Japan, DAX for Germany etc.)

So using today's (current) numbers:
Japan 21.6 x +2.0% = 43.2
UK 23.2 x -0.28 = -6.46
Germany 7.8 x +0.22 = +1.71
etc.
etc.

Once added up you would then divide by 100. Does that make sense to get a gauge of how the fund would do that day?

[Birchtree]

The I fund is composed of individual large cap companies - you can't go by the country indexes. Right now with the currency wars it's all about the exports.

[clester]

Thanks. So using that data and the numbers in the table from nnuut could you make the assumption that each of these markets will then act similar to their index (i.e. Nikkei 225 for Japan, DAX for Germany etc.)

So using today's (current) numbers:
Japan 21.6 x +2.0% = 43.2
UK 23.2 x -0.28 = -6.46
Germany 7.8 x +0.22 = +1.71
etc.
etc.

Once added up you would then divide by 100. Does that make sense to get a gauge of how the fund would do that day?
Yes, except that the currency for each country also effects the price. So, for a general idea you could add the index percent to the cuurency percent change (make sure you get the sign right here esp. With the yen). We have had in the past folks who had an algorithm and would post daily. I think it was 350Z wasn't it? Anyway, it's hard to figure and even harder to apply chart indicators. Just use the Efa for that. It's not exactly accurate but works ok.

[JTH]

Yes, except that the currency for each country also effects the price. So, for a general idea you could add the index percent to the cuurency percent change (make sure you get the sign right here esp. With the yen). We have had in the past folks who had an algorithm and would post daily. I think it was 350Z wasn't it? Anyway, it's hard to figure and even harder to apply chart indicators. Just use the Efa for that. It's not exactly accurate but works ok.

Oh and the IFT 12:00 Noon cutoff time. It makes me wonder why TSP has a fund that only the top 1% know how to estimate.... Smoke & mirrors

[JTH]

If I were wanting to take on some risk and thought the markets were going to put in a reversal, the I-fund would be an appealing choice due to the utter damage it has taken. But please let me say this, just because this fund has been beaten down, it does not mean it is entitled to catch up with the other indexes.

22514

[Birchtree]

The ECB is going to ride to the rescue at any moment. Staying the course.

[clester]

I fund will rocket today. Markets and currencies are both lined up positive for I fund. I guess the Italian elections are going well?

[JTH]

Anyone chasing this?

22588

[sniper]

no. daily chart is showing 2 bearish engulfing candles since last week, and weekly chart looks like pullback mode. i'll visit the i fund later, but not now. I personally don't like the looks of it atm

[clester]

I fund will rocket today. Markets and currencies are both lined up positive for I fund. I guess the Italian elections are going well?
The elections turned the markets back down. Man, this feels like we've been here before.

[PLANO]

The elections turned the markets back down. Man, this feels like we've been here before.

Yep, it looks like the Liberal is leading in Italy and that put everything in a downward fall.

[sniper]

that and our politicians can't agree on the seCastration issue

[Kaufmanrider]

I just don't get it. Currency or not. Today, EAFE was up .81%, yet it appears the share price on the TSP.Gov website shows a loss of .05 per share.

I am holding Large Cap International in my Brokerage account, SCHF (Schwab ETF) and I gained .85% today.

Lesson, buy in Brokerage, stay away in TSP.

[tsptalk]

I see the EAFE Index down 1.61% today in dollars.

MSCI Index Performance - Standard (Large & Mid) - MSCI (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/size/standard/performance.html)

[JTH]

I just don't get it. Currency or not. Today, EAFE was up .81%, yet it appears the share price on the TSP.Gov website shows a loss of .05 per share.

I am holding Large Cap International in my Brokerage account, SCHF (Schwab ETF) and I gained .85% today.

Lesson, buy in Brokerage, stay away in TSP.

The negative favorable value from the previous day carried over, welcome to the I-Fund, breaker of hearts, lover of none...

[JTH]

Perhaps good news for those down on your luck I-funders, we see potential for a tweezers top...

22639

[Khotso]

Perhaps good news for those down on your luck I-funders, we see potential for a tweezers top...

22639

Lol. Too late. I bailed COB yesterday. But I really appreciate and have learned a ot from you posts JTH.:laugh:

[JTH]

Lol. Too late. I bailed COB yesterday. But I really appreciate and have learned a ot from you posts JTH.:laugh:

No problem, it's been a tough road to travel in the I-Fund this month

[ebbnflow]

Japan's Nikkei 300 is up +2.36% tonight. It's about time.

[Khotso]

Japan's Nikkei 300 is up +2.36% tonight. It's about time.

Hope things work out for you ebbnflow. The I fund is a mystery. I've learned not to count my chickens when I'm in it and I'll probably try to stay away from it in the future as a result (but then that's what I've said about pizza, cheese, cookies and so on). Best of luck!

[JTH]

Here's my biggest problem with the I-Fund. How many of us can calculate the close and accurately estimate the gain/lose? Yet it still gets traded, why do we accept the risk when we don't know how to interpret the rules the risk is based on? I know of only one person who was able to do it, I doubt there are 3 people in this forum who can, someone please prove me wrong.

The tweezer's top didn't pan out.

22660

[ebbnflow]

Hope things work out for you ebbnflow. The I fund is a mystery. I've learned not to count my chickens when I'm in it and I'll probably try to stay away from it in the future as a result (but then that's what I've said about pizza, cheese, cookies and so on). Best of luck!

Thanks, Khotso. Results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.24%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.18%; EFA (I-fund): -0.45%.

Looks like the I-fund is the big loser of the day, but lately we've been seeing a disconnect between the EFA and I-fund, so I always check on MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html). Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.01% for the I-fund. :rolleyes:

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.13%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.36%; EFA (I-fund): -0.16%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.59% for the I-fund. The I-fund giveth, and the I-fund taketh away. :rolleyes:

On the brighter side, TNA is up a whopping +36.34% for the year. :nuts:

[JTH]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.13%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.36%; EFA (I-fund): -0.16%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.59% for the I-fund. The I-fund giveth, and the I-fund taketh away. :rolleyes:

On the brighter side, TNA is up a whopping +36.34% for the year. :nuts:

TZA, boy I wonder how many folks lost out trying to guess that bottom...

[Birchtree]

Nikkei is up +19.94% this year so far. The conclusion is the I fund will shine in time.

[sniper]

Nikkei is up +19.94% this year so far. The conclusion is the I fund will shine in time.

dollar is pulling back also, should give a nice tail wind

[Birchtree]

Europe stocks close at record highs on U.S. rally - Europe Markets - MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-hits-highest-level-since-june-2008-2013-03-14)

[ebbnflow]

TZA, boy I wonder how many folks lost out trying to guess that bottom...

Can't short when the bulls are running. Better to just step aside. :cool:

[ebbnflow]

Nikkei is up +19.94% this year so far. The conclusion is the I fund will shine in time.

Birch, that must be the Nikkei 225. Nikkei 300, which our I-fund tracks, is doing even better at +20.95%.

[ebbnflow]

dollar is pulling back also, should give a nice tail wind

Yep, the I-fund probably won't get a +FV, so the dollar falling more in the afternoon should carry over for Friday's I-fund price.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.56%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.80%; EFA (I-fund): +0.99%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +0.94% for the I-fund. A price adjustment of +0.05% would be great. :rolleyes:

TNA adds another +2.97% (+40.37% for the year). :nuts:

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.16%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.17%; EFA (I-fund): +0.22%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +0.84% for the I-fund. Boost (no FVs involved) came from yesterday's dollar-drop carryover, today's dollar falling again, and the surging Nikkei. The I-fund closes the gap on the S-fund by +1%. :blink:

TNA lost -0.43% (up +39.98% for the year).

[crommie]

Considering a buy into the I Fund on today's reactive dip with perhaps a dash of S Fund to keep a toe in the US Market.
Thoughts anyone?

[sito3]

I'm thinking the same thing, but I'm going to wait until Wednesday to get in I fund. I'm not an expert, just my gut feeling.

[crommie]

Pulled the trigger, 70I/30S.
Dips have been bought quickly lately and this Cypress thing will quickly be forgotten...I hope :o

[Birchtree]

I think that's good horse sense.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.55%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.46%; EFA (I-fund): -1.10%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -1.44% for the I-fund. That was some buzz cut, but it could have been worse. No FVs involved. Expect Japan's Nikkei to bounce back. :blink:

TNA lost -1.56% (up +37.80% for the year). Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013).

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.24%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.41%; EFA (I-fund): -0.32%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.31% for the I-fund. Cyprus plan to levy bank deposits was struck down. Stealing dirty money from the Russians is not a good idea (one can end up glowing in the dark). :blink:

TNA lost -1.23% (up +36.11% for the year). Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013).

[Scout333]

Thanks for the info Ebb!

[ebbnflow]

Japan's Nikkei is closed for a holiday (Vernal Equinox).

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.67%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.97%; EFA (I-fund): +0.61%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +0.34% for the I-fund. That's disappointing, but there's a slim chance for a +FV with Japan's Nikkei (closed yesterday) still expected to track Wall Street gains. :blink:

TNA gained +2.83%% (up +39.96% for the year). Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013).

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.83%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.81%; EFA (I-fund): -0.89%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of only -0.18% for the I-fund. And, I don't think there's a negative FV coming. The European markets are due for a bounce (UK/FTSE down 5 days). :blink:

TNA lost -2.74% (up +36.13% for the year). Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013).

[Pill]

Ugh! The I-Fund is bringing me down. I have to remember my reward will come later, while I continue to keep Dollar Cost Averaging at great prices.

Its easy to be short sighted.

[rcknfrewld]

I can envision "I" hitting 30$ a share in about 5 years...I am hoping for a pullback down to 20$ by April...either way I am taking the plunge

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.72%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.30%; EFA (I-fund): +0.87%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of only +0.02% for the I-fund (no FV). I'm surprised because that came out exactly the same as my guess (I'm usually off by .10 or .20). :blink:

TNA gained +0.92% (up +37.38% for the year). Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013).

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.33%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.19%; EFA (I-fund): -1.25%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.44% for the I-fund (no FV). It could have been worse (sell the news). :blink:

TNA gained +0.23% (up +37.70% for the year).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.78%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.53%; EFA (I-fund): +0.61%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.08% for the I-fund. The dollar-rise carryover sliced into today's slight gain (at the time of European markets close). The market's move up since then is not enough for a positive FV of half a percent. But, Japan's Nikkei is still expected to track Wall Street gains. And if the Nikkei futures indicate a strong open, TSP may be forced to tack on a +FV. :blink:

TNA gained +1.01% (up +39.09% for the year).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[rcknfrewld]

The I fund is looking more and more appetizing every day...it has been lagging far behind the C and S funds...leaving plenty of room for it to play catch up...btw just watching Doomberg Surveillance on the tele...the name made me chuckle...evenflow enjoy your daily I fund updates...first thread I check when I come on board after work

[rcknfrewld]

"Man you must be crazy...why would anyone in their right mind want to own the I fund particularly now that prices are golden."
........a wise man once said this

[Show-me]

I'm having a little buyers remorse but kind of expected it to break down before any rebound.


"Man you must be crazy...why would anyone in their right mind want to own the I fund particularly now that prices are golden."
........a wise man once said this

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.06%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.16%; EFA (I-fund): -0.50%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.56% for the I-fund. The I-fund continues to lag the other funds, but I think of it more as a coiling action, so watch out when it finally springs back up. :blink:

TNA gained +0.27% (up +39.37% for the year).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.41%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.42%; EFA (I-fund): +0.48%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +0.36% for the I-fund. The roller coaster ride continues. Have a great holiday weekend. :)

TNA gained -0.20% (up +39.09% for the year).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[rcknfrewld]

Good news for potential I fund buyers...Tankan Manu. lower than expected....very excited about that especially coming from Susan Li on Doomberg channel...even Birch would have to think twice about her

[rcknfrewld]

Just heard a lot of the foreign markets are taking Easter Monday off...since TSP had no announcements regarding this, we still should get an I fund price today right?

[Sensei]

Just heard a lot of the foreign markets are taking Easter Monday off...since TSP had no announcements regarding this, we still should get an I fund price today right?

Tokyo Stock Exchange was open, and Nikkei down 2%. So, if our markets continue higher, maybe this is a good day to buy I.

[Frixxxx]

Just heard a lot of the foreign markets are taking Easter Monday off...since TSP had no announcements regarding this, we still should get an I fund price today right?
Still will have a quote. Currency values and a small number of other markets are opened. Remember it is an index.

[bmneveu]

Is Japan still artificially manipulating their inflation rate? And if so, how does that affect the I fund? I'm considering a buy today and trying to get as much info as I can.

[rcknfrewld]

Evenflow...any positive fair value out there that could take I from neg to pos

[Birchtree]

From my WSJ: "Not only has the Fed significantly expanded its footprint in the financial markets by essentially doubling the pace of its bond buying from last year, but the Bank of Japan is likely to finally join the aggressive easy money club in an attempt to revive the moribund Japanese economy. Those expectations alone - the Bank of Japan hasn't actually done anything yet in 2013 - were enough to spark a 19% rally in the Nikkei Stock Average in the first quarter. That made Japanese stocks the best performers among developed economy stock markets, a big change from their reputation as dead money in a country mired in a long stagnation. If it does open the spigots of monetary easing, the Bank of Japan would join in with the Fed, the Banl of England, the Swiss National Bank and, to a lesser degree, the European Central Bank, with policies aimed squartely at the financial markets."

[ebbnflow]

Evenflow...any positive fair value out there that could take I from neg to pos

Evenflow? I like that. Yeah, I think I'm cool like that. :D

With the C and S-fund down a bit and the European markets closed for a holiday, I'd say a negative FV is more probable than a +FV. But with the dollar down this much, we don't usually get a -FV. And, the Nikkei 300 sold off last night, so a bounce is more likely there.

[ebbnflow]

EFA is showing a loss of -1.12% for the I-fund right now, but my estimate for the MSCI EAFE is -0.37%. That's good if it sticks and no -FV, of course. :)

[ebbnflow]

EFA is showing a loss of -1.12% for the I-fund right now, but my estimate for the MSCI EAFE is -0.37%. That's good if it sticks and no -FV, of course. :)

Breaking News...

MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.44% for the I-fund. I was off by -0.07%. :)

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.45%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.05%; EFA (I-fund): -1.32%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.44% for the I-fund. There shouldn't be any FV, but if the TSP want to screw the I-funders who bailed out today, then we'd get one.

TNA lost -3.63% (YTD: +34.04%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[Scrappy]

EFA is showing a loss of -1.12% for the I-fund right now, but my estimate for the MSCI EAFE is -0.37%. That's good if it sticks and no -FV, of course. :)

ebbnflow,

how are you estimating what the FV will be?
I am in the I for the first time since last year and have noticed an increase and larger values of FV lately but I have no knowledge to understand why. I got burned by FV in a short trade last month. :confused:

thanks,
Scrappy

[rcknfrewld]

Echoing scrappy here..how would you predict today's action so far or is it too soon

[ebbnflow]

ebbnflow,

how are you estimating what the FV will be?
I am in the I for the first time since last year and have noticed an increase and larger values of FV lately but I have no knowledge to understand why. I got burned by FV in a short trade last month. :confused:

thanks,
Scrappy


Echoing scrappy here..how would you predict today's action so far or is it too soon

Scrappy, FV depends on the dollar and market movement after the European markets close. To warrant a -/+ FV, it has to be at least half a percent.

rcknfrewld, my MSCI EAFE (I-fund) estimate right now is for a gain of +0.81%.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.52%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.42%; EFA (I-fund): +1.12%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +0.61% for the I-fund. "THEY KNOW NOTHiNG!" -- my best Jim Cramer impersonation. :blink:

TNA lost -1.39% (YTD: +32.17%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -1.05%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.55%; EFA (I-fund): -0.51%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.06% for the I-fund (expect a -FV). OH SNAP! -- Tracy Morgan. :blink:

TNA lost -5.18% (YTD: +25.33%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.40%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.59%; EFA (I-fund): +0.90%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -1.00% for the I-fund. If we add Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55%, then Thursday's I-fund loss is -0.45%. But there's a 50/50 chance of a +FV (at least half a percent) tonight, so the I-fund could still wind up in positive territory. :blink:

TNA gained +2.47% (YTD: +28.42%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[bmneveu]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.40%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.59%; EFA (I-fund): +0.90%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -1.00% for the I-fund. If we add Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55%, then Thursday's I-fund loss is -0.45%. But there's a 50/50 chance of a +FV (at least half a percent) tonight, so the I-fund could still wind up in positive territory. :blink:

TNA gained +2.47% (YTD: +28.42%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

Thanks for your work on this. I'm gonna be super pissed if the I fund posts a negative day when EFA was up almost a full 1%. :mad:

[Birchtree]

No need to be upset with the I fund - the gains always return eventually.

[ebbnflow]

No need to be upset with the I fund - the gains always return eventually.

Yep, whatever +FV (buffer) the I-fund gets today, turns into a -FV (baggage) tomorrow. :D

[bmneveu]

Ahhh thank you both :D

[ebbnflow]

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -1.00% for the I-fund. If we add Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55%, then Thursday's I-fund loss is -0.45%. But there's a 50/50 chance of a +FV (at least half a percent) tonight, so the I-fund could still wind up in positive territory. :blink:

Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55% was added to Thursday's MSCI EAFE of -1.00% (loss -0.45%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +1.07% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (gain +0.62%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -1.07% from the get-go. :)

[bmneveu]

Nikkei opened +4.5%!!! :nuts:

[JTH]

Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55% was added to Thursday's MSCI EAFE of -1.00% (loss -0.45%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +1.07% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (gain +0.62%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -1.07% from the get-go. :)

Does this mean if the markets closed down -1% tomorrow and you bought into the I-Fund, that you'd get in at -2.07% (2 for the price of one?)

[rcknfrewld]

Pin the tail on the donkey is more predictable than the elusive "I" fund

[Show-me]

Thanks for the updates.


Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55% was added to Thursday's MSCI EAFE of -1.00% (loss -0.45%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +1.07% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (gain +0.62%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -1.07% from the get-go. :)

[ebbnflow]

Does this mean if the markets closed down -1% tomorrow and you bought into the I-Fund, that you'd get in at -2.07% (2 for the price of one?)

Yep, if you IFT'ed into the I-fund on Thursday before noon, but with Japan unleashing their own ultra-QE, the FV baggage of -1.07% is just the price of admission (Nikkei has been doing cartwheels tonight). :blink:

[ebbnflow]

Analysts say that numbers between 190,000 to 200,000 are a bit high for the March jobs report. Whisper numbers which are considered closer to expectations are said to be in the range of 160,000 to 170,000.

[bmneveu]

Yep, if you IFT'ed into the I-fund on Thursday before noon, but with Japan unleashing their own ultra-QE, the FV baggage of -1.07% is just the price of admission (Nikkei has been doing cartwheels tonight). :blink:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think JTH was talking about buying in Friday (today). So if EFA dropped 1% today and we subtracted another 1% for the FV "correction", would he get in at a -2% discount?

I am curious too here to see if there is a way to anticipate large FV moves. If so, it might be possible to snipe some gains with 1-day moves in and out of the I fund, until the IFT limit gets you.

[Frixxxx]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think JTH was talking about buying in Friday (today). So if EFA dropped 1% today and we subtracted another 1% for the FV "correction", would he get in at a -2% discount?

I am curious too here to see if there is a way to anticipate large FV moves. If so, it might be possible to snipe some gains with 1-day moves in and out of the I fund, until the IFT limit gets you.


The FV function (snipe gains) you are looking for used to exist, but when we had unlimited IFTs, and exploitable.

Now with two IFTs/month I don't think anybody's willing to risk the attempt to try and track something that would almost need immediate action to get.

But if you know someone, :rolleyes:

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.43%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.17%; EFA (I-fund): -0.50%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +0.10% for the I-fund. If we add Thursday's FV baggage of -1.07%, then Friday's I-fund loss is -0.97%. I don't expect any FV tonight, so the I-fund is all squared up.

TNA lost -0.66% (YTD: +27.58%).

Using TNA while following the triple patterns -- priceless!

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think JTH was talking about buying in Friday (today). So if EFA dropped 1% today and we subtracted another 1% for the FV "correction", would he get in at a -2% discount?

I am curious too here to see if there is a way to anticipate large FV moves. If so, it might be possible to snipe some gains with 1-day moves in and out of the I fund, until the IFT limit gets you.

Like Frixxxx said, don't even try gaming the FV. :D

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.63%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.89%; EFA (I-fund): +0.39%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +0.41% for the I-fund (I don't expect any +FV). I'm starting to get motion sickness. :sick:

TNA gained +2.66% (YTD: +30.99%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.35%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.03%; EFA (I-fund): +0.36%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +0.50% for the I-fund. The dollar weakness propped up the I-fund.

TNA: -0.90% (YTD: +29.80%).

Using TNA while following the triple patterns (YTD): +38.31%. Since Nov. 2008 (TNA start): +1,224%. :D

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.22%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.44%; EFA (I-fund): +1.48%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +1.60% for the I-fund. Wow, where did that come from? :blink:

TNA: +5.66% (YTD: +37.15%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.36%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.38%; EFA (I-fund): +0.79%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +1.24% for the I-fund. If that's the caboose arriving late at the station, then are we finally ready for the ride back down? :blink:

TNA: +0.41% (YTD: +37.71%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[bmneveu]

Unofficial results for today:

EFA (I-fund): +0.79%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of +1.24% for the I-fund.

So we got some extra gains from FV? Does that mean it will even out with a deduction tomorrow?

[ebbnflow]

So we got some extra gains from FV? Does that mean it will even out with a deduction tomorrow?

The I-fund is all squared up yesterday, so the +1.24% comes from today's falling dollar and the overseas markets. I don't expect any -FV tonight (not enough for a half percent), but the dollar rising a bit (UUP -0.45% to -0.27%) in the afternoon can create a dollar-rise carryover (-0.18%) for tomorrow's I-fund.

[Show-me]

Had I not been at the Doctor's office I would have made at least a partial move today. Me thinks a pull back is looming as the upper BB has be seriously violated.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.28%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.35%; EFA (I-fund): -0.21%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.52% for the I-fund (no FV tonight). Time to relax and watch some golf. :D

TNA: -1.53% (YTD: +35.58%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -2.30%; DWCPF (S-fund): -3.36%; EFA (I-fund): -1.99%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.81% for the I-fund (expect a -FV tonight). The buy-and-beholders stand pat. :blink:

TNA: -11.12% (YTD: +20.51%). Sooner or later you're gonna have to stop throwing darts.

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.43%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.69%; EFA (I-fund): +1.42%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.61% for the I-fund. Add Monday's FV buffer of +1.04%, and the I-fund is up +0.43% for today. I am not sure of a +FV tonight, but it's going to be only half a percent if we get one.

TNA: +5.06% (YTD: +26.61%). Perfect snapback to keep the bulls in the game. Bull trap? :blink:

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.43%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.69%; EFA (I-fund): +1.42%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.61% for the I-fund. Add Monday's FV buffer of +1.04%, and the I-fund is up +0.43% for today. I am not sure of a +FV tonight, but it's going to be only half a percent if we get one.

TNA: +5.06% (YTD: +26.61%). Perfect snapback to keep the bulls in the game. Bull trap? :blink:

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

I-fund: +1.34%. Oops, forgot to factor in Japan's Nikkei which is still expected to track most of Wall Street's gains. Monday's FV buffer of +1.04% was added to Tuesday's MSCI EAFE of -0.61% (I-fund +0.43%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +0.91% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (+1.34%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.91% at the get-go. :D

[JTH]

Thank you for posting these updates :)

[JimmyJoe]

I-fund: +1.34%. Oops, forgot to factor in Japan's Nikkei which is still expected to track most of Wall Street's gains. Monday's FV buffer of +1.04% was added to Tuesday's MSCI EAFE of -0.61% (I-fund +0.43%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +0.91% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (+1.34%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.91% at the get-go. :D Monday's S fund - 3.40. I fund -1.90. From memory.

[ebbnflow]

European markets went from positive to negative territory. The dollar is also on the rise (+0.25%).

My early estimate of MSCI EAFE (I-fund) is for a loss of -0.50%. But if we add Tuesday's FV baggage of -0.91%, the damage would be at -1.41% for the I-fund. This could get uglier if things don't turn around.

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -1.43%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.58%; EFA (I-fund): -2.08%.

Tuesday's FV baggage of -0.91% is added to Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) of -0.99% (I-fund -2.00%).

TNA: -5.09% (YTD: +20.17%). No need to guess, the triple patterns know where this market is headed.

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[Show-me]

I feel like the Elephant Man just gave me my prostrate exam, twice. :blink: :laugh:

[ebbnflow]

Official results for today:

C-fund: -1.43%; S-fund: -1.58%; I-fund: -1.76%.

For the I-fund: Tuesday's FV (fair value) baggage of -0.91% was added to Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) of -0.99% (loss -2.00%). A bigger-than-usual price adjustment of +0.24% made it to the I-fund's final price. That's what happens when the TSP overlord overshoots the FV. Today, the I-fund is all squared up. :D

TNA: -5.09% (YTD: +20.17%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[Scout333]

Official results for today:

C-fund: -1.43%; S-fund: -1.58%; I-fund: -1.76%.

For the I-fund: Tuesday's FV (fair value) baggage of -0.91% was added to Wednesday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) of -0.99% (loss -2.00%). A bigger-than-usual price adjustment of +0.24% made it to the I-fund's final price. That's what happens when the TSP overlord overshoots the FV. Today, the I-fund is all squared up. :D

TNA: -5.09% (YTD: +20.17%).


Ebb, Wouldn't (.99%)+(.91%) = (1.90%) instead of (2.00%) + the .24% price adjustment for a (1.66%) I Fund loss?

[ebbnflow]

Ebb, Wouldn't (.99%)+(.91%) = (1.90%) instead of (2.00%) + the .24% price adjustment for a (1.66%) I Fund loss?

Oops! I really need glasses, but I refuse to wear one. Thanks a heap, Scout333. It's -1.90%, so the price adjustment goes down to only -0.14% (I-fund -1.76%). :rolleyes:

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.67%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.62%; EFA (I-fund): -0.31%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a loss of -0.38% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).

TNA: -1.85% (YTD: +17.95%). TNA following the triple patterns: +50% (Nov. '08-'13: +1,337%). :nuts:

For the TSP, the triple-pattern strategy tracks 3 different allocations at the beginning of the year:

1. 50% S, 50% I, or 100% F.
2. 100% S or 100% F.
3. 100% S or 100 I, or 100% F.

If you happen to choose strategy #2 (100% S or 100% F), you'd be sitting on top of the AutoTracker (yep, number one) right now. This year, I chose strategy #3 (100% S or 100% I, or 100% F), so I'm not doing as well. :toung:

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[Intrepid_Timer]

Oops, came here looking for what the I fund did but I think ended up in the ebbnflow spam thread................:laugh:

[ebbnflow]

Oops, came here looking for what the I fund did but I think ended up in the ebbnflow spam thread................:laugh:

Just trying to call attention to the wonderful world of triple patterns. It can do wonders for the TSP, and yes that includes the I-fund. Intrepid, thanks for dropping by -- this could very well help me pick up a couple hundred more subscribers -- the check is in the mail. :D

[Intrepid_Timer]

Just trying to call attention to the wonderful world of triple patterns. It can do wonders for the TSP, and yes that includes the I-fund. Intrepid, thanks for dropping by -- this could very well help me pick up a couple hundred more subscribers (the check is in the mail). :D

Good luck! See you at the end of the year. You know how I like to come from behind.............;)

And you can keep that I fund.........................:sick:

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.88%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.26%; EFA (I-fund): +0.80%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/performance.html) shows a gain of only +0.21% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).

TNA: +3.42% (YTD: +21.98%). This is how the market strings along unsuspecting bulls. Hope is alive and well. :blink:

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

[ebbnflow]

Good luck! See you at the end of the year. You know how I like to come from behind.............;)

And you can keep that I fund.........................:sick:

I remember trailing you by 6-8% last year, caught up and beat the S&P 500 index (+13.41%) to boot. I believe no other premium service accomplished that last year. Had I followed the triple patterns 100%, my score (+15.34%) would have been at +18.69% (and doing so without using a single IFT). ;)

The wind left the sails of the I-fund in the first quarter, but it will return in due time. But yeah, it was toxic for a while. :sick:

Note: The triple patterns timeline was discovered early last year (2012). Just started to ride the coattails of the triple patterns.

[Intrepid_Timer]

I remember trailing you by 6-8% last year, caught up and beat the S&P 500 index (+13.41%) to boot. I believe no other premium service accomplished that last year. Had I followed the triple patterns 100%, my score (+15.34%) would have been at +18.69% (and doing so without using a single IFT). ;)

The wind left the sails of the I-fund in the first quarter, but it will return in due time. But yeah, it was toxic for a while. :sick:

Note: The triple patterns timeline was discovered early last year (2012). Just started to ride the coattails of the triple patterns.

I beat the S fund in 2010 and 2011, what's your point? I remember someone else bragging about beating me in 2011 also. They didn't do so well last year and now don't post much anymore. Please don't go away at the end of this year............;) I see 2011's returns are no longer posted, so I guess you are lucky in that regard.

Since you are also bragging about your TNA returns this year, would you like to compare your TNA trades with my TNA/TZA trades from last year as well? Probably not.............

Also, you won't ever see me lose almost 9% in any given month with TSP either. Stop cherry picking man, you've had a good run this year, but so have a lot of other buy and holders. Again, good luck. Let's hope you aren't done making money for the year already, I"m not. :)

[sniper]

jerry! jerry!

[ebbnflow]

I beat the S fund in 2010 and 2011, what's your point? I remember someone else bragging about beating me in 2011 also. They didn't do so well last year and now don't post much anymore. Please don't go away at the end of this year............;) I see 2011's returns are no longer posted, so I guess you are lucky in that regard.

Since you are also bragging about your TNA returns this year, would you like to compare your TNA trades with my TNA/TZA trades from last year as well? Probably not.............

Also, you won't ever see me lose almost 9% in any given month with TSP either. Stop cherry picking man, you've had a good run this year, but so have a lot of other buy and holders. Again, good luck. Let's hope you aren't done making money for the year already, I"m not. :)

I am pretty sure, I added a note in my last comment. Like I said, the triple patterns timeline was discovered early last year, so don't go by my past record. I don't think your TZA/TNA or TSP trades have a chance against the triple patterns (TNA since Nov. '08: +1,300%). Hate to break it to you, but study after study points to frequent churning of assets resulting in less profits than buy-and-hold (look it up). You're model is simply unsustainable. You'll find that out yourself, sooner or later. Good luck! :D

[Stoplight]

Boys, Boys...stop slinging the mud ! I'm SURE you BOTH have your Fans ! Just sit back and let the numbers fall where they may at the end of the year...as a "consumer", I'll decide what's right for me !

Stoplight...

[Intrepid_Timer]

I am pretty sure, I added a note in my last comment. Like I said, the triple patterns timeline was discovered early last year, so don't go by my past record. I don't think your TZA/TNA or TSP trades have a chance against the triple patterns (TNA since Nov. '08: +1,300%). Hate to break it to you, but study after study points to frequent churning of assets resulting in less profits than buy-and-hold (look it up). You're model is simply unsustainable. You'll find that out yourself, sooner or later. Good luck! :D

Studies done by folks who couldn't do it my friend. Let's see how you feel once the next big bear shows up. I'll still be making money, even in TSP, while you're content hiding out in the G fund all year. Just saying...............;) You never mentioned what you're TNA trades made last year? Nevermind, we already know......................:rolleyes:

[Intrepid_Timer]

Boys, Boys...stop slinging the mud ! I'm SURE you BOTH have your Fans ! Just sit back and let the numbers fall where they may at the end of the year...as a "consumer", I'll decide what's right for me !

Stoplight...

Why do so many people call a lively debate "mud slinging"? Mud slinging is personal attacks and I don't know ebb from adam.

[Stoplight]

Why do so many people call a lively debate "mud slinging"? Mud slinging is personal attacks and I don't know ebb from adam.

Okay, I stand corrected...it's a "lively debate", and I apologize for suggesting otherwise !

All I know is...you make money from your subscribers...Ebb makes money from his subscribers...and seeing you Guys arguing over whose "system" is "better" strikes me as something I don't care to see...We ALL can see the results ! I've made my choice...


Stoplight...

[ebbnflow]

I am pretty sure, I added a note in my last comment. Like I said, the triple patterns timeline was discovered early last year, so don't go by my past record. I don't think your TZA/TNA or TSP trades have a chance against the triple patterns (TNA since Nov. '08: +1,300%). Hate to break it to you, but study after study points to frequent churning of assets resulting in less profits than buy-and-hold (look it up). Your model is simply unsustainable. You'll find that out yourself, sooner or later. Good luck! :D


Studies done by folks who couldn't do it my friend. Let's see how you feel once the next big bear shows up. I'll still be making money, even in TSP, while you're content hiding out in the G fund all year. Just saying...............;) You never mentioned what you're TNA trades made last year? Nevermind, we already know......................:rolleyes:

Ok, now I'm convinced you are clueless about the the triple patterns. FYI: Triple patterns eat bear markets for breakfast. :rolleyes:

If you check out my charts, I never use the G-fund for safe haven (only the F-fund is used). :)

After mentioning that TNA (following the triple patterns) produced a gain of 1,300% (since Nov. 2008), what does it matter how it did last year? For the record, the triple patterns had TNA on buy all of last year. The thing is, it's like me telling you that it did +10,000% since 2008, and you go, "yeah, but how did it do last year?" :laugh:

[Intrepid_Timer]

Ok, now I'm convinced you are clueless about the the triple patterns. FYI: Triple patterns eat bear markets for breakfast. :rolleyes:

If you check out my charts, I never use the G-fund for safe haven (only the F-fund is used). :)

After mentioning that TNA (following the triple patterns) produced a gain of 1,300% (since Nov. 2008), what does it matter how it did last year? For the record, the triple patterns had TNA on buy all of last year. The thing is, it's like me telling you that it did +10,000% since 2008, and you go, "yeah, but how did it do last year?" :laugh:

And what if I told you that 1300% since Nov 2008 is crap? You're posting back-tested data. The forum is full of back-tested wannabes who didn't actually perform like they said they could.

Sounds like a challenge to me, and I LOVE challenges. What do you say? Your TNA trades against my TNA/TZA trades for the next two years (since you think no one can time the markets consistently) and the loser ends their premium service? I'll even give you the head start you currently have. Before you agree, make sure you read my end of year report. My system blew the S&P 500 out of the water last year, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before. I just can't use all it's signals for TSP. With TNA/TZA, I can.......................

[Intrepid_Timer]

Ok, now I'm convinced you are clueless about the the triple patterns. FYI: Triple patterns eat bear markets for breakfast. :rolleyes:

If you check out my charts, I never use the G-fund for safe haven (only the F-fund is used). :)

After mentioning that TNA (following the triple patterns) produced a gain of 1,300% (since Nov. 2008), what does it matter how it did last year? For the record, the triple patterns had TNA on buy all of last year. The thing is, it's like me telling you that it did +10,000% since 2008, and you go, "yeah, but how did it do last year?" :laugh:

FYI, I'm not "clueless" about your triple patterns, I could just care less. Your patterns are based on historical data and I for one know that history constantly changes.................oh, and about that challenge, just so you know, last year I always stuck with my first buy signal of the month, this year I'm not putting that limitation on myself this year. Last year there where two months that I warned subscribers that they might want to wait for my system's second buy signal of the month instead of using the first like I did. By heeding those warnings, my return would have been better than yours, including that supposed 18.69% that you "should" have made.

I love guys that say "don't look at last year" even though that is when they said they started using their "new" system.................:rolleyes: Also, it's funny how you choose to post your returns beginning in Nov of 2008, AFTER TNA lost it's butt for the year................oh well, I actually hope you do well over the next couple of years. Then maybe I can "retire" and just become one of your subscribers. Until I see the proof though, I still have the best timing system around................