Market Talk

[Spaf]

Sunday Jan 2.

Data and Comments on the New Year

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) ended 2004 at 10,783, up 3.1 percent on 2003.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMP: news, chart, profile) finished at 2,175, up 8.6 percent on the year.

The S&P 500 ($SPX: news, chart, profile) stood at 1,212 to chalk up a 9 percent gain for the year.

Most of 2004's gains came late in the year as investors reacted to the presidential election with relief that a clear winner had emerged and that the protracted legal battle which followed the 2000 election was not to be repeated.

"The low in August set the stage for an impressive advance that took many individual stocks to new highs," said Prudential analyst Ralph Acampora, who is convinced, he said, that market technicals are now setting the stage for a strong 2005. "Think about it for a second: All the leading market averages are entering the New Year at new highs," while all of the advance/decline lines are at all-time highs, he said. "This is a fully in-gear bull market."

January has a lot up in the first week, especially in the economic calendar of events.

http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-calendar.asp?view=economic

One of the best sites I have found to monitor current market conditions in domestic, international, and commodities is at:

http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-markets.asp

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October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.

Mark Twain ;) Thanks Mark!

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Allocations

For a near retirement allocation I am using one of this sites model's with a little personal modification.

I went to the Current TSP fund allocation / Long term market outlook allocation / allocations, and picked the risk tolerance = moderate allocation of 20% for all funds. I removed the underperforming F fund and added it's value to the overperforming S and I funds, tweaked it for risk tolerance and came up with 20G, 0F, 20C, 35S, and 25I. Thats my current allocation and where I will start this year.

As far as where we stand right now in the market. I've attached a chart of the S&P for 1 year to date.

Rgds :) Spaf

[Spaf]

Hey Chaplain............... I got 1 for U.

Subject: You can't outsmart the big guy

God is sitting in heaven when a scientist says to Him, "God, we don't need you anymore. Science has finally figured out a way to create life out of nothing - in other words, we can now do what you did in the beginning."

"Oh, is that so? Tell Me." replies God.

"Well," says the scientist, "we can take plain dirt and form it into the likeness of you, and breath life into it, thus creating man."

"Well, that's very interesting . show Me, " says God.

So the scientist bends down to the earth and starts to mold the soil into the shape of a man.

"No, no, no ..." interrupts God, "Get your own dirt....

[learning]

Hey Spaf.

Glad to hear what you are up to! I have started the first day with a more modest setting 45% C & S. Looking at going another 20 to the I fund. The I fund scares me though. Whimp. LOL If the first week looks good I will look at 100% stocks to come. They say the first week is a good indication of how things are going to go. The market looks a little over bought. However, I do not have the ability to get to a computer and see what is happening a lot. So I have to be a little more long term aimed. Week by week, if you will. We do not get much news here, and when we do it is late.:P

He uses the foolish things to confound the wise :D. Good one, Spaf :^

[Spaf]

learning wrote:
However, I do not have the ability to get to a computer and see what is happening a lot. So I have to be a little more long term aimed. Week by week, if you will. We do not get much news here, and when we do it is late.:P

Learning.....Mind me asking. Where are you at?

[Spaf]

Some of the better free charts of the stock market can be found at this site:

http://stockcharts.com

See the block: Easy as 1-2-3. Create a chart now!
1. Choose a style: i.e., Gallery
2. Enter a symbol: i.e., $SPX (for the S&P 500)
3. That's it! Just click "GO"

Rgds :) Spaf

[learning]

Im on the East coast and work in remote areas.

Here we go this is where I bailed to early last time and ate the hit. Now, I will do a little riding and perhaps do better. The S fund took a disportinate hitthe other day, so I hope to see a rebound today. Please!!!!!! :P LOL

[Spaf]

This current market can make some rather steep gains and declines when it wants to. We have had two steep declines with the S&P reporting 1188.05 ending today.

The last Higher Low (HL) was at 1176, around December 7th. The bull market shouldn't go past that, and should stop somewhat above 1176. I should have changed my allocation yesterday (hindsight), not knowing how steep the low of todayswould reach. :(

1188 is a good number so I'll put in for a transfer from 20G, 0F, 20C, 35S, 25I for tomorrow at 30C, 40S, and 30I. ;)

I'll be checking tomorrows AM market to see if the S&P goes above todays high of 1205. If it doesn't, I may cancel the transfer. If it does well I'll let the new transfer stay.

The problem with a correction catch is that it takes a day to make a transfer, and with a fast acting market, you can miss the best flying weather.:( One more reason I need to transfer other funds to my Scottrade account.

Anyway, will see what happens for the AM of tomorrow. :?

PS: Tom,...... I unsubscribed from your e-mail alerts today to save you the cost. I can pick it up on your home page. Thats what I was doing any way. :^

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[Wheels]

Oh man, This is brutal! 16K in 3 days. Stuck in S and I yet one more day. Will likely cut my losses tomorow and bail. Then the rest of you can enjoy a nice bounce that will no doubt begin IMMEDIATELY after I get out.

Dave

[lookywhatigot@yahoo.com]

Wheels wrote:
Oh man, This is brutal! 16K in 3 days. Stuck in S and I yet one more day. Will likely cut my losses tomorow and bail. Then the rest of you can enjoy a nice bounce that will no doubt begin IMMEDIATELY after I get out.

Dave
You might as well wait till Monday, that's when the market will be back up.

[Spaf]

Looky............I would agree with you. To wait right now, and see what happens.

Wheels wrote:

Oh man, This is brutal! Will likely cut my losses tomorow and bail.
We have a bull market going. The market will advance. It is normal for there to be periods of declines, what we call corrections, where the market has to sort of catch it's breath. I'm not always right, but this is what I believe we have going right now.

I don't see the market S&P 500 going below, say 1176, its previous Higher Low. It declined 2 points, 10 points, 14 points and today 4 points closing at 1184. In my opinion it is hitting some resistance. Now it might stay here for a while or start an advance any time. See attached chart S&P for 6 mo.

My strategy is to put some gains (20-30%) in the G fund as the market reaches new highs (selling high) and then to reserve that % for corrections to buy at lower prices. In the mean time I sleep better not be 100% invested all the time. Something you might consider, or try out. Right now I've bought back in at 1184. Will see if I get egg on my face.

The market talk at USAToday was: U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday for a third session in a row as persistent concern over inflationary pressures moved investors to lock in recent gains. So I guess whenever this trend passes, the market should react, hopefully favorable.

Rgds:) Spaf

[Mike]

I'm still toughing it out, but it's not easy, that's for sure. Whenever the S fund recovers back to my entry point, I'm cutting my exposure thereby 2/3 (from 60% to 20%).

[Spaf]

Mike wrote:
I'm still toughing it out, but it's not easy, that's for sure. Whenever the S fund recovers back to my entry point, I'm cutting my exposure thereby 2/3 (from 60% to 20%).





Mike.... It should recover, if the bull market holds, it's just a matter of time.

What I have found that kind of works for me, is to take gains and put them in the G fund (20-30%) and play the rest in stocks. When a correction occurs you can buy low with the G funds. I don't know how this works in percentage but it saves me a lot of sleepless nights being fully invested all the time. When the market advances as in the bull market, my gains are increased. How much, I haven't figured out, but it keeps with my desire to sell high and buy low. Anything over 40% I don't sleep. Therefore I try to diversify between the stock funds proportionaly for a allocation that somewhat represents the gains of the last 15 trading days.

Currently I have transferred to 30C, 40S and 30I at The S&P price of 1183. Maybe I will wind up with egg on my face, but I don't see the market (S&P) going below about 1176. If it does then woops here comes the eggs.

If the market changes to bearish we will have the appropiate indicators, at present they are not apparent. If they appear I'll certainly let you know.

Rgds ;) Spaf

[Mike]

As I mentioned in FundSurfer's Acct Talk thread, the percentage of gains since August given back in the correction is rather interesting.

The S fund is approaching 25% :shock:, the C is coming close to 20%, and the I (strangely) is lagging behind at about 12% of the post Aug 12 gains given back...

In other words, for a "safe haven", C is not holding up very well right now, and the volatile S is behaving as one would expect (badly).

lookywhatigot wrote:
Wheels wrote:
Oh man, This is brutal! 16K in 3 days. Stuck in S and I yet one more day. Will likely cut my losses tomorow and bail. Then the rest of you can enjoy a nice bounce that will no doubt begin IMMEDIATELY after I get out.

Dave
You might as well wait till Monday, that's when the market will be back up.
On average the market is down 76% on Mondays.

Monday is a good day to buy...not sell.

I will hopefully sell into the job report tomorrow and buy back on Tuesday after the trade report beats us like a used mule.

:shock:

Mike wrote:
As I mentioned in FundSurfer's Acct Talk thread, the percentage of gains since August given back in the correction is rather interesting.

The S fund is approaching 25% :shock:, the C is coming close to 20%, and the I (strangely) is lagging behind at about 12% of the post Aug 12 gains given back...

In other words, for a "safe haven", C is not holding up very well right now, and the volatile S is behaving as one would expect (badly).

Mike,

From the start of the year the C fund is down by less then half of the S fund. There is a rotation going on from small to large caps. I believe because small caps have over performed the last three years....large caps perform better during inflation and interest rate fears, stock options on small caps and the pending social security reform disaster for middle and low income folks.

U.S. dollar is rallying but that will be short lived. Now is a great time to buy some I fund and dump some S fund.

Just one lemmings advice.

:shock:

[learning]

Spaf please let us know whay you are doing. You have done good. At least in comparison to me.

Market timer. You called this. You were just a little late on when you said it would hit. You were thinking about the 3 rd trading day. That was a long time ago when you called it. That was good job. Hope you made a killing:^

As for me I am going remote next Monday. Translation. Trades will be harder. Civilization takes longer to get to, nights though I should be able to see what happed.I have a great wife though and she can keep me up to date and do some changes for me. Ohhhh Are we having fun yet:shock: Still Learning. LOL

learning wrote:
Spaf please let us know whay you are doing. You have done good. At least in comparison to me.

Market timer. You called this. You were just a little late on when you said it would hit. You were thinking about the 3 rd trading day. That was a long time ago when you called it. That was good job. Hope you made a killing:^

As for me I am going remote next Monday. Translation. Trades will be harder. Civilization takes longer to get to, nights though I should be able to see what happed.I have a great wife though and she can keep me up to date and do some changes for me. Ohhhh Are we having fun yet:shock: Still Learning. LOL

Learning,

Hey dude...thank you saying that. When CNBC is showing their fancy new graphic for when DOW 11,000 hits this week and Jim Cramer is saying MONEY IN THE BANK that the S&P will go up 7.5% the first week of January that is a strong signal to bail. The bullish indicator is higher then January 2000...that has come down a bit but when you see stuff like that is time to sell. Now people are saying the downturn is not over, etc, etc - like Jim Cramer yesterday saying the market has a way to go and we will see a number of down days before this is over...then it is time to buy. As you remember 12 August 2004 Cramer said the market is crappy and going to crater and 13 August 2004 is when the big bull run started. Whatever he is doing...do the opposite. He said sell Apple, march 2004....triple danger zone and it went up 340% from there. I have made tons of money doing the opposite of what he is doing. I love the guy, I truly do.

Now he is saying on his show that the housing bubble is a load of bunk....I sold all my REITs and saved myself over 8% since he said that. Remember his top 10 for the new milleum that he put out January 2000?....down over 90% now. Lucent, the globe, corning, estamps, etoys, etc, etc.

Thanks again Learning...had to response to you. Stay positive and follow Tom, Tekno and my personal friend Spaf...they have their heads on straight.

MT signing off...this time for real:?

[Mike]

MarketTimer wrote:

"U.S. dollar is rallying but that will be short lived. Now is a great time to buy some I fund and dump some S fund."

Strangely, I actually agree with you on this. The only issue I'm grappling with is when to pull the trigger. I want the S fund to move up today and hopefully tomorrow as well. If the jobs report exceeds the expectations, I'll probably shift half of my S into I (now that the I has corrected somewhat along with the others). If the report is so-so or bad, I'll probably just throw up my hands and bail completely to G.

The dollar rally will certainly be short-lived. Other than the speculation that the fed will hike rates in larger increments, there's really no reason for the dollar to move upward right now (aside from our economy being stronger than other nations', but that wasn't enough last year, so why would it be enough now?).

[cowboy]

I went 100% I fund today! Good luck everyone I hope the market holds.