I-Fund

[BabyBoi]

:D

Rod, are you saying the I-Fund is a good choice this week?

[James48843]

Big surge upward in the "I" fund today- markets in Asia and Europe both up strong today.

Good luck.

[Sensei]

I like that this thread was left untouched for 7 years before BabyBoi got a response!

[RealMoneyIssues]

I like that this thread was left untouched for 7 years before BabyBoi got a response!

James is digging up OLD bones :D

[James48843]

Nah. it just means we're kicking off the dust because the "I" fund is about to take off big time.


That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.


:D

[Sensei]

Nah. it just means we're kicking off the dust because the "I" fund is about to take off big time.


That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.


:D
I hope you're right - I've got 5% in "I" :)~

[rcknfrewld]

Hey Tom is there a way we could add that MSCI index at the bottom of the page...it's too hard to go to their site and navigate to the page that ebb used to link to on his account talk...to see the MSCI index I have to go to ebbs old posts and click on the link...I say replace the I fund with the MSCI because our I fund tracker is worthless anyway

[tsptalk]

I'm not sure that would work, but I'll play with it.

[rcknfrewld]

ebb told me I could put that MSCI link in my sig whenever I put one on...ill try that

[rcknfrewld]

don't waste your time trying to figure out why...all I know is that you can wipe your ass with our I fund tracker at the bottom of the page...you need to track the MSCI fund that Ebb has on his signature...that is pretty spot on...today it said +.81...it usually has their price by noon(far east markets)...then by 3o'clock it integrates the European markets to tally final price

[rcknfrewld]

9.10.13...I fund prediction...+1.61%

[NavyEng]

Using the EFA chart works. You just have to keep in mind that most international market close by 11:30. If you look at gain/loss between 11:30 and 11:30 on the previous day, you will get an approximation of what TSP gain/loss will be. Gains/loss after 11:30 will carry over to the next day. Unless, the gain/loss is greater than .5%, then TSP most likely will do a fair value adjustment.

For example, yesterday's delta between 11:30 on the 6th to 11:30 on the 7th was .86%. After 11.30, EFA gained another .49%.

So today, add .49% to whatever the gains are at 11:30 should get you close to what TSP posts tonight.

[tsptalk]

MSCI Index Performance - Standard (Large & Mid) - MSCI (http://www.msci.com/products/indices/size/standard/performance.html)

You have to click the "Agree" button on the bottom of the page to see the EAFE quotes. These are not live intraday quotes, but once updated it's pretty accurate unless there's a significant move in U.S. stocks and the TSP makes an adjustment.

[NavyEng]

I fund prediction for tonight is .94 + .49 = 1.43% barring any major changes in the market this afternoon.

[rcknfrewld]

Look what NavyEng started here...a predict the close of the I fund by noon contest, winner gets a tsp talk mug?
i like my chances today

[Birchtree]

No guessing from me - but on a comparative basis, Japan's monetary stimulus is three times the size of that in the USA. I'm holding 20C/80I for at least the next two years.

[tsptalk]

Look what NavyEng started here...a predict the close of the I fund by noon contest, winner gets a tsp talk mug?
i like my chances today
Maybe a monthly standings winner. I don't want to go to the post office every day. :)

[rcknfrewld]

just passing through to grab some toilet paper...i'm plum out

[rcknfrewld]

(this is me frantically searching for ebb's account talk page after seeing the I fund share price)

[bmneveu]

Is the I fund expected to get an artificial boost today because of the beating it took from the dollar yesterday?

[ravensfan]

Is the I fund expected to get an artificial boost today because of the beating it took from the dollar yesterday?

Not sure what happened. Things were looking good this morning and then we nose dived after 1200 hrs. I suspect it will remain like this until the Ukraine situation stabilizes. It is certainly primed for a run up though...

[bmneveu]

Is the I fund expected to get an artificial boost today because of the beating it took from the dollar yesterday?

It looks like it did get a nice little push from the TSP Gods. EFA ended the day -.20%, while the I fund ended +.26%. That adds up to a friendly nudge of almost half a percent!

[ebbnflow]

Wow, the TSP overlords must have messed up the I-fund on Wednesday for not issuing a -FV.
The MSCI EAFE folks finally updated Tthursday to show a loss of -0.01% in the I-fund (a couple hours late).
Then the TSP overlords gave the I-fund a gain of +0.20%. That's not even a +FV...it's a whopping price adjustment of +0.21%. :notrust:

Note: Price adjustments are usually in the +0.03% range. :)

[fedgolfer]

Wow, no discussion on I-fund and a long-term dollar spike that is about to take place?! 'Bout time to hop on board the I-train with some new IFTs coming in Nov.

[tsptalk]

Too many I-fund threads, I guess...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/i-fund/21235-dollar-hurting-i-fund.html

I'm confused by what you said... Are you thinking the dollar is going to continue to spike, or has finished spiking?

It sounds more like you're saying it will continue to spike, so wouldn't the I-fund be hurt by that? Thanks.

[fedgolfer]

I'm thinking that with the dollar spiking so aggresively and BOJ's QE, that the I-fund isn't nearly as bad as it may seem. At least through early Nov. Despite the longer term uptrend of the dollar, UUP can have a week or two of downward pressure and still remain in an uptrend... giving insitutional investors time to unwind from the surprise BOJ QE. Then, rather that going from I-fund to safety... I-fund to S/C-fund, post elections. Just a contrarian strategy worth discussing that bucks the mass trend since so many are sidelined by the fast spike in US equitities and predicting topping patterns. I agree with your assessments of inverted H&S and strong bullish patterns forming. PSARs with a max step adjusted from .2 (more volative) to .1 (less volatile) shows some pretty strong bullish trends that will continue until they are broken. And coming back to the I-fund/dollar... nobody thinks its a good trade today... which means its shaping up to be a great short term one... uup price is outside the top bollinger, with a strong chance of a short term reversal back into the band.

[tsptalk]

The U.S. markets are closed but overseas markets were open today. Europe was down Monday and Asia was up. I think the I-fund is leaning slightly negative going into Tuesday.

[exnavyew]

Greek debt talks with euro zone break down, way forward uncertain
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-hints-euro-zone-ease-111155699.html

[tsptalk]

I see the EAFE actually closed up 013% on Monday.


The U.S. markets are closed but overseas markets were open today. Europe was down Monday and Asia was up. I think the I-fund is leaning slightly negative going into Tuesday.

[law87]

I see the EAFE actually closed up 013% on Monday.

so monday count or does it roll over to tuesday?

[FireWeatherMet]

I see the EAFE actually closed up 013% on Monday.

And that's with lots of negative geopolitics...Greece walking away from debt restructuring talks, More proof Russian artillery pieces are moving across border into Ukraine.

[tsptalk]

It will incorporated into Tuesday's closing price.


so monday count or does it roll over to tuesday?

[tsptalk]

And that's with lots of negative geopolitics...Greece walking away from debt restructuring talks, More proof Russian artillery pieces are moving across border into Ukraine.

Yeah, and a little surprising since the European markets were down.

[Cactus]

With the pop in the I Fund not occurring until 2 PM today I guess it will be another day for the fund to get shorted, I mean FVed. Oh well, at least it crossed over the 200 day SMA today. :)

[Skorcher]

With the pop in the I Fund not occurring until 2 PM today I guess it will be another day for the fund to get shorted, I mean FVed. Oh well, at least it crossed over the 200 day SMA today. :)

Looks like the FV is in your favor today. EAF up 0.59% and I Fund up 0.72%. That was with the dollar (UUP) up 0.04%.
Go figure.:blink:

[MrJohnRoss]

Looks like the I Fund is regaining some strength against C and S. Perhaps I sold too soon.

[exnavyew]

Simply for what it's worth:

ETF Quote: efa iShares MSCI EAFE - Morningstar (http://www.morningstar.com/invest/etf/50394-efa-ishares-msci-eafe.html)

[exnavyew]

Americans chase European stocks
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-chase-european-stocks-but-avoid-the-euro--the-right-call-191324431.html

[Joe66]

Last year the I fund lost about 5.3%, so far this year it has made nearly 6%. I have about 20% of my income there. If the I manages to have a very good year, meaning if it returns 15%, I will still transfer most of my money out of it because I don't like the roller coaster associate with this particular fund.

[nasa1974]

Americans chase European stocks


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-chase-european-stocks-but-avoid-the-euro--the-right-call-191324431.html

Interesting article. What I got out of it was invest local and don't worry about overseas.

[czapor1967]

so how much gas does the I fund have left in its tank? anybody have any thoughts about this???

[Birchtree]

I expect the ishares Europe ETF of IEV to go from $44 to $84 before the year ends. The IEV contains 350 European stocks.

[law87]

so how much gas does the I fund have left in its tank? anybody have any thoughts about this???

as long as there is no major crash from either the Asian market or the U.S market it should continue upward for couple years. Look at our QE program, we rise so much since the crash with the help of QE. I think the I fund is on a bull cycle and the U.S market is on the down turn, and that does not mean we are crashing, maybe sideway for a year or two ranging 1-2k in the Dow.

[exnavyew]

Disclaimer: Rookie opinion! Right or wrong I loosely view the 2015 I-fund as sort of being like the US stock market circa 2009. Seems like the US economy is definitely improving but a lot of 'experts' are saying US stocks are overpriced and there are 'better' bargains in Europe. Also a lot of articles about people moving their money into the European stock markets lately. My totally 'amateur' view is that the I-fund has more upside potential than the US stock market. Of course Greece will default and ka-blooey. Currently have 30% in the I-fund.

[Joe66]

The I fund had another very good day yesterday. I'm glad I decided not sell after loosing money on it in 2014. Now that Greece has agreed to more austerity, it will get money from the EU in order to get its economy on track.

[exnavyew]

iShares MSCI EAFE
EFA ETF: Holdings, Quote, Analysis, Ratings | ETF.com (http://www.etf.com/EFA)

[exnavyew]

6 reasons money managers are buying European stocks
6 reasons money managers are buying European stocks - MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-money-managers-are-buying-european-stocks-2015-03-10?page=1)

[exnavyew]

I-fund is back in Jan/2015 territory. FWIW. :scratchchin:

[exnavyew]

I-fund near 2-year low. FWIW. :scratchchin:

[korekaza]

The I fund is painful right now, is there another correction going on? :suspicious:

[tsptalk]

Technically, the I-fund is still in a bear market and add to that the recent pop in the dollar and that's the bad situation.

[bmneveu]

How did the EFA perform so poorly today? +0.27% is not exactly what I expected after seeing the DAX, FTSE, and CAC 40 all up at least +2% each. It looks like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng had great days as well. This doesn't make sense to me.

Edit: Looks like we got a little bump from the TSP gods to bring it in at +0.76%. That is still incredibly low compared to how the underlying indexes performed. Maybe they give us a little more on the back end of tomorrow as well.

[bmneveu]

How did the EFA perform so poorly today? +0.27% is not exactly what I expected after seeing the DAX, FTSE, and CAC 40 all up at least +2% each. It looks like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng had great days as well. This doesn't make sense to me.

Edit: Looks like we got a little bump from the TSP gods to bring it in at +0.76%. That is still incredibly low compared to how the underlying indexes performed. Maybe they give us a little more on the back end of tomorrow as well.

I just looked up the country weights again. Here's the list...

Japan 23.35%
United Kingdom 19.71%
France 9.93%
Switzerland 9.25%
Germany 8.95%
Australia 6.16%
Spain 3.34%
Hong Kong 3.06%
Sweden 2.86%
Netherlands 2.82%
Italy 2.39%
Denmark 1.75%
Belgium 1.40%
Singapore 1.26%
Other 3.77%

So the top 5 countries by weight make up ~70% of the I fund (EFA), they all had huge UP days, and somehow we end up getting less than half of the average that they made? I didn't look up every country, but I would guess the others had similar days.

[tsptalk]

It's getting ugly in Europe. Politics in Italy and a falling Euro has the EAFE dropping quickly below its 200-day EMA.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/052918b.gif

[tsptalk]

I wouldn't want to be in the I-fund today. The dollar is up 0.67%, and the European markets are down quite a bit.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/092519b.gif