Current trends

[Nate]

Talk of the sinking dollar is all I hear after QE2 was announced.
When the market begins to drop next, does this mean the dollar will begin to rise?
- resulting in the I to go back down with the rest of the market?

[nnuut]

The Market has been inversely following the dollar, the EFA usually does better when the dollar is on the way down. I don't see any reason to think this relationship will change now.

[tsptalk]

When the market begins to drop next, does this mean the dollar will begin to rise?
I would assume so. Right now, as nnuut says, the market is inversely following the dollar (and it's the dollar leading, rather than following the market).

These correlations change from time to time. A few years ago it was oil that the market was inversely following (oil up stocks down, etc.). We've seen it happen with the Japanese Nikkei, or the Shanghia in China (these two are usually in sync with US indices rather than an inverse correlation).

Today it happens to be the dollar.

[Boghie]

Bernanke is doing to China what Greenspan did to Japan.
Temporarily weaken the dollar - forcing the other currency to 'appreciate'.

That will force China to invest in itself rather than count on exports to the US.

There is another short term 'benefit' or two:

The Gubmint can continue to borrow money for free
We can hopefully avoid deflation. We know how to fight inflation


Let's just hope the 'Black Swan Event' President doesn't take flight and gum up the works.

[WorkFE]

Let's just hope the 'Black Swan Event' President doesn't take flight and gum up the works.

Fat Chance

[Boghie]

Fat Chance

I hear you WorkFE, but I have lost a lot of potential earnings by prognosticating political events.

Plus, The Black Swan Event President has had his wings clipped;)


By the way, I am more concerned about oil and the Black Swan Event President than I am about the dumping dollar. We are in deflation till we deleverage. One way to deleverage is to refinance at dirt rates. That increases cash flow. The other way is to pay the garbage down. Your floating rate credit cards are MUCH easier to pay down now. Take this opportunity. Bernanke will ultimately defend the dollar. Oil, however, seems to directly affect the economy.

[WorkFE]

Been thumping all debt hard (No significant Cards). Same for investments.

[Nate]

- vacation has been great! I went from relaxing every day, to studying & watching the ticker while white-knuckle'ing the couch. :D
I wanted to follow nnut on his moves, but he was one of the few that actually...moved. I saw noone at the top-end of the autotracker doing much of anything, so I sat still. Granted, Im playing with floorboard change compared to most of you, but im still allowed to enjoy the thrill of wishing I was making money :toung:
Its been good practice for when I become a full-fledged overpaid fed myself:laugh: (I was a half-fledged underpaid fed-contractor for 7 years)

Thanks for your replies 'bout the dollar. Charts are fun but dont have much personality.

[Birchtree]

You'll need roller skates to keep up with Nnuut - he doesn't stay in one place very long.

[Nate]

I would assume so. Right now, as nnuut says, the market is inversely following the dollar (and it's the dollar leading, rather than following the market).

These correlations change from time to time. A few years ago it was oil that the market was inversely following (oil up stocks down, etc.). We've seen it happen with the Japanese Nikkei, or the Shanghia in China (these two are usually in sync with US indices rather than an inverse correlation).

Today it happens to be the dollar.

As to not double post....
If the EFA, which follows the S&P and DWCPF like a school of fish, all (currently) inversely follow the dollar.....would'nt now then be a good time to invest in the $USD index (hypothetically speaking of course)? Is there any short-term money to be made in index funds or is it too much of a safe bet?
Im looking to invest outside of TSP for short term growth. The thought of indivdiual stocks make me feel like Im swimming with sharks in this economy.....expecially looking for short term growth.

[tsptalk]

You might try ETF's (exchange traded funds). You can buy the S&P (c-fund), EFA (i_fund), AGG (f-fund), or any other type of fund, including the dollar, including short ETFs (go up when the market goes down) just like buying a stock.

more: www.etftalk.com (http://www.etftalk.com) | www.etftalk.com/forum (http://www.etftalk.com/forum)

I don't think it is a good time to invest in the dollar.

[Nate]

Thanks for the reply. Ive been looking at 4yr term market trends as of late, (because thats what the books tell me to do). Of course, I didnt mean right now, but when the rest of the market trend sends a sell signal (or if the dollar shows a buy signal VIA RSI/STO) Figured I'd ask about $USD though, couldnt hurt. Thanks again !