Interfund Transfer 12/27 for 12/28/04

[tsptalk]

I am going to get aggresive the last4 trading days of the year in an attempt to beat the S&P 500 for the year. I am currently 1/2% behind. There is no other reason for the transfer so take it for what it is worth.

Effective Tuesday 12/28/04 I will be 50% S fund, 50% I fund.

The S&P 500 is used as the benchmark to judge a trader / market timer/ money manager. They would call it window dressing. I feel I have to give it a shot because I will carry that 2004 return around with me for years to come.

If the S and I funds do well and I pass the S&P 500 (C fund) return, I will simply go to 100% C fund to make sure I stay ahead. If this turns out to be a bad move, it won't matter too much. IfI come up short by a 1/2% or by 2% it is still below the S&P. I have to give it a shot.

[coolhand]

This may be a good day to do it Tom. Futures are up, dollar is little changed and overseas markets, although somewhatmixed,appear to be down modestly overall.

Think I'll morph into a Lemming today...:l.

[richrob3]

I'm allocating 50% C, 25% S, 25% I. Hope it is the right thing to do. I have seen a nice increase in my account, thanx to everyone's input. You all have been a real help to me. Lets hope for a positive 2005! Question? How often should we be thinking about making interfund transfers? I have about 9 years till retirement. Appreciate any advice. :^

[richrob3]

One more thing. I ha ve 19.43% in G, 40.29% in C, 20.33% in S and19.95% in I. Don't know if this helps or not. ;)



RICH

[tsptalk]

richrob3 wrote:
I'm allocating 50% C, 25% S, 25% I. Hope it is the right thing to do. I have seen a nice increase in my account, thanx to everyone's input. You all have been a real help to me. Lets hope for a positive 2005! Question? How often should we be thinking about making interfund transfers? I have about 9 years till retirement. Appreciate any advice. :^
One more thing. I ha ve 19.43% in G, 40.29% in C, 20.33% in S and19.95% in I. Don't know if this helps or not.
Hi Rich -
By "allocating" it sounds likeyou talking about your paycheck contributions since you currently have 19.43% in the G fund etc. When I doa transfer, I am talking about interfund transfers where I move myentire balanceinto a new allocation, not a contribution allocation change which only effect new deposits.

Also, and I don't mean to target you because I get a lot of emails with this same question, when I make an allocation change (interfund transfer), that is usually what I think is the best short term allocation for me. So if you choose to do something different, it's hard for me to say that is good or bad because it might be best for you at this particular time.

That said, my longer term allocation (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html))"recommendation" for aggressive investors has been 35% C, 35% S and 30% I. You were pretty close, so if you consider yourself aggressive, you're on the right track. You can see the other allocations on that page for more moderate and conservative investors.

I hope this helps. Thanks for joining us!
Tom

[grandma]

coolhand wrote:
Think I'll morph into a Lemming today...:l.




- okay - I have forgotten what this is saying :dah:. The search didn't bring up lemming for me to review :( - Refresh my memory, please...

I think Show-me had the photo, but What Does It Mean??? Lemmings jump into the sea/C???

and, :xno comments!!!:x thank you -------------


And Welcome totsptalk,Richrob2

[coolhand]

grandma wrote:
- okay - I have forgotten what this is saying :dah:. The search didn't bring up lemming for me to review :( - Refresh my memory, please...

I think Show-me had the photo, but What Does It Mean??? Lemmings jump into the sea/C???

and, :xno comments!!!:x thank you -------------


And Welcome totsptalk,Richrob2

Hi Grandma! Hope this doesn't scare you ;).

Main Entry: lem·ming http://www.m-w.com/images/audio.gif (javascript:popWin('/cgi-bin/audio.pl?lemmin01.wav=lemming'))
Pronunciation: 'le-mi[ng]
Function: noun
Etymology: Norwegian
: any of various small short-tailed furry-footed rodents (as genera Lemmus and Dicrostonyx) of circumpolar distribution that are notable for the recurrent mass migrations of a European form (L. lemmus) which often continue into the sea where vast numbers are drowned
- lem·ming·like http://www.m-w.com/images/audio.gif (javascript:popWin('/cgi-bin/audio.pl?lemmin02.wav=lemminglike')) /-"lIk/ adjective

[grandma]

grandma wrote:

And Welcome totsptalk,Richrob2

Richrob3 - either the syrup made my finger slip off the 3 & punch in the 2, or, maybe it was the peanut butter making me stick to the two - anway, I am correcting myself. so, again, Welcome........

Coolhand - I Knew That:oo - I got lost on how you guys used that term when a couple of other fellows were posting............ thank you, tho. I know less than I know in this world of economics, and every posting helps me more!

[coolhand]

coolhand wrote:
This may be a good day to do it Tom. Futures are up, dollar is little changed and overseas markets, although somewhatmixed,appear to be down modestly overall.

Think I'll morph into a Lemming today...:l.



Boy, "I" fund closed at 15.41 today; a .15 increase :shock:. Didn't expect that this morning.

[tsptalk]

coolhand wrote:
coolhand wrote:
This may be a good day to do it Tom. Futures are up, dollar is little changed and overseas markets, although somewhatmixed,appear to be down modestly overall.

Think I'll morph into a Lemming today...:l.

Boy, "I" fund closed at 15.41 today; a .15 increase :shock:. Didn't expect that this morning.

I'm afraid we might be a daylate? :shock: I hope I'm wrong and it just continues up.

[Rod]

We must be careful not to get caught in the (I) Fund web...:s

But it's looking rather promising right now.

God Bless:^

[coolhand]

Rod,

I agree. It does still look promising. I wouldn't have moved to "I" yesterday if I didn't think it still had legs. Just need a little patience and luck.

For those whocaught this upturn though, I'm happy for you!:)

[tsptalk]

The dollar seems to be getting tossed around today. Down early, then shot up, nowmoving down someagain.

[richrob3]

Tom,

Would you consider me a short term investor or long term? I still have a little over 8 years to mandatory retirement. I'm going till I'm the ripe old age of 57.

Thanx for everything,

rich:^

[smedlap]

How long do you plan to live?:^ Who says you have to quit at any time?

[pogo]

rich it not often that i run into someone who is in the same situation as i'm in. (eight years and a half until i can retire) i'm still aggresive, just went 50-I,35-s,15-con 12/27/04 i have been 80-c,20-f(startedwith gov. in1984)until i found this site made extra cash compare to my 80/20 theory for all those years. the only thing i can say is read, listen and take your time in your decision.:^

[tsptalk]

richrob3 wrote:
Would you consider me a short term investor or long term? I still have a little over 8 years to mandatory retirement. I'm going till I'm the ripe old age of 57.

rich -
I think ofa long term investor a someone who is more of a buy and hold investor rather than someone who moves in and out of funds during the year. It is more a description of your investment preference. Now if you are asking if you should be aggressive or conservative because you have 8 years left before retirement, I would say anyone with 5 years or more left can be more aggressive.

Even with that said, asa short term outlook investor, I get very conservation and very aggressive based on what the market is telling me so I assume I will getting in and out up until I am ready to retire. I may not be as aggressive but I'll play the market and not time.

Does that make sense?

richrob3 wrote:
Tom,

Would you consider me a short term investor or long term? I still have a little over 8 years to mandatory retirement. I'm going till I'm the ripe old age of 57.

Thanx for everything,

rich:^

Richrob3, I'm mandatory at 57 as well (BOP?). However, I am guessing that you will have supplemental SS as well as your annuity. I plan to leave the TSP account in place and live off the restuntil 62 (when I move to reg. SS,) even if I need to be a greeter at a major discount retailer for a few extra bucks. I will continue to use the TSP system to maximize growth without the fees and restrictions of marketplace fund comapnies until then. This extends my window for an aggressive investingapproach. This is just another perspective, butmany of my co-workers are unfamiliar with their FERS benefits and how they can be used. Best wishes and good luck.

Peace andHappy New Year <><

[retiredcg]

tsptalk wrote:
That said, my longer term allocation (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html))"recommendation" for aggressive investors has been 35% C, 35% S and 30% I. You were pretty close, so if you consider yourself aggressive, you're on the right track. You can see the other allocations on that page for more moderate and conservative investors.

I hope this helps. Thanks for joining us!
Tom
Tom - I certainly appreciate all you're doing for those of us who either are just starting out or steadying up on our financial "sealegs" in the TSP. I am somewhat similar in scope with richrob3 in my allocations and with my outlook, though I'm planning on 15 years with DHS (USCG used to be in DOT). I retired active duty and came back FERS in mid-2000. At the beginning of Nov03, I took my balance (all G of course :( ) and made a 20G, 25C, 25S and 30I transfer and allocation. I have been pleased since then since I have nearly quintupled my returns just on the original share distribution. I guess I fall into the buy and hold because I don't understand the markets the way you and many others do.

My main question, based on your "recommendation" for the aggressive investor: Does the "aggressive" investor leave out the G fund due toits relativelypoor performance when compared with the other funds? I can understand jumping in and out for the short term (safety in an unstable market), but I'm beginning to think the 20G I'm in is too much of a waste, and since I plan on another 15yr withFERS, based on what I'm reading in the posts, I should maybe split that into another 10S and 10I. What do you think?

Keep up the good work with the forum! I'm in for the long term!:^

Jim

[tsptalk]

retiredcg wrote:
My main question, based on your "recommendation" for the aggressive investor: Does the "aggressive" investor leave out the G fund due toits relativelypoor performance when compared with the other funds? I can understand jumping in and out for the short term (safety in an unstable market), but I'm beginning to think the 20G I'm in is too much of a waste, and since I plan on another 15yr withFERS, based on what I'm reading in the posts, I should maybe split that into another 10S and 10I. What do you think?
Hi Jim -
You are correct. Assumingwe are talking about following alonger term strategy and not moving money around, the markets do trend upward and over the long term (5, 10, 20 yrs) the returns of the stock funds should beat the G fund returns. If you don't mind risk, getting aggressive is likely to give you a better return. The less risk you want to take, the more you would put into the G fund for the long term.

There is a trade off. More risk = more possible return but also higherrisk of losses. Less risk = lower return potential but less chance of big losses.

Hope that helps,
Tom

[richrob3]

Tom,

I really do appreciate you taking time to answer my questions. Thank you very much! I will continue to monitor this website and try to learn as I go, you have been a tremendous help. Here is wishing you and everyone else on this site a very happy and SAFE New Years!

rich :^