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Frixxxx
11-02-2010, 03:06 PM
Just when you thought it was safe....a whole decade has passed us by!

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/high10d.pdf

For you High risk, B&H crowd!

Steelhead
12-14-2010, 07:01 PM
The question I can't resolve for myself is how it is being offered at such a low share price of $10 when the other L funds are up over $14 and the 2040 is over $17? Is it foolish to think that the 2050 should be valued closer to the 2040 share price? What gives here?

Lost-in-Maine
12-14-2010, 08:29 PM
Thank you Steelhead for posting your question. I am interested in any thoughts on this matter as well. Another question for the population, how long do you thonk it will be before the L2050 hits the current range of the L2040?

James48843
12-14-2010, 08:52 PM
The question I can't resolve for myself is how it is being offered at such a low share price of $10 when the other L funds are up over $14 and the 2040 is over $17? Is it foolish to think that the 2050 should be valued closer to the 2040 share price? What gives here?

The share price has nothing to do with the other L funds- it simply is an artificial starting point in value. The underlying funds (stocks of the C, S, I funds, plus bonds from F fund, and government securities of the "G" fund) are simply packaged into various ratios to form the L2050 upon start up.

Once there are actual investments in it, then the movement of the various stocks affect the value of the L2050.

There is NO RELATIONSHIP between the L2050, and the L2040, or L2020 for that matter.

If the underlying stocks/bonds/government securities double in value over the next ten years, the L2050 will be valued at $20 a share.

The $10 is simply a starting point for initial purchase on the very first day it will be available.

Does that make sense?

James48843
12-14-2010, 09:01 PM
Thank you Steelhead for posting your question. I am interested in any thoughts on this matter as well. Another question for the population, how long do you thonk it will be before the L2050 hits the current range of the L2040?

The L funds were introduced in August of 2005, at a price of $10 a share for all L funds.

The current price of the L2040 is slightly over $17 a share.

If your question is "When will the L2050 reach $17 a share", the answer is, based on pas history, somewhere between five and eight years into the future, unless market conditions screw it up, which is always possible.


If your question is "When will the L2050 PASS the L2040 in value?" That's a different question, and much harder to answer. With a $7 a share head start, it may be 20 years before the L2050 passes the L2040.

But then again, maybe not. It all depends on what the markets do going forward.

By the way- "G" fund is now setting new record lows for return. Last month is was 0.17%, or an annual rate of just 2.04%. That is very, very poor compared to historic returns on the "G".

crws
12-15-2010, 07:46 AM
Did I miss an announcement about L2050 or is this a theoretical concept?

Frixxxx
12-15-2010, 08:13 AM
Did I miss an announcement about L2050 or is this a theoretical concept?
You missed it - :toung:

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/high10d.pdf

crws
12-15-2010, 11:24 AM
ahhhhso'
Thanks!

Steelhead
12-15-2010, 12:05 PM
Thanks guys it makes sense (or even cents) to me now too bad it isn't making more dollars instead. I was picturing it as an undervalued stock rather than as you've described. My CFA girlfriend couldn't clarify it for me as much as you did but maybe that's because I only hear half of what she says. :rolleyes:

nguyensv
12-29-2010, 09:50 AM
I plan on buying the shares when it comes out in Jan.
Question is how much value of the $10 is spilit among the other funds?
Does it buy shares from the other funds? and say if we don't want to invest in the Bonds, could we buy shares or better yet say put a % in the other funds that mimic the L fund?

nguyensv
12-29-2010, 11:14 AM
I plan on buying the shares when it comes out in Jan.
Question is how much value of the $10 is spilit among the other funds?
Does it buy shares from the other funds? and say if we don't want to invest in the Bonds, could we buy shares or better yet say put a % in the other funds that mimic the L fund?


Edit*** found it by more lurking :)

Birchtree
12-29-2010, 11:19 AM
You'll be wasting your time with the L2050. Just put your money on the C fund and take a long walk.

tsptalk
12-29-2010, 11:26 AM
I will have the AutoTracker updated to take L2050 allocations, as soon as I see the TSP accepting them and / or posting the share price, which supposed to be on Jan 31.

If anyone sees it on the tsp.gov IFT page before January 31, please let me know. Thanks

James48843
01-26-2011, 02:13 PM
Note- this message is now appearing on the TSP website in the allocations change pages:




L 2050 Fund — The L 2050 Fund will open on January 31 with an initial share price of $10. As the L Fund with the most distant time horizon, its investment mix will feature higher percentages in domestic and foreign stocks (the C, S, and I Funds) and lower percentages of Government securities and bonds (the G and F Funds). Participants can begin making contribution allocations and interfund transfers into the L 2050 Fund beginning at 12 noon Eastern time on January 28. These elections will become effective on January 31.

Frixxxx
01-26-2011, 02:37 PM
Yeah, but it will adjust before you can place money into it....

OR

I wonder if we will be able to put into it on the 28th with an IFT!

If they adjust to the $18 (L2040) level....that could be 100% return in no time!:cool:

Oh I wish it were the stock market......

crws
01-27-2011, 01:52 PM
Yeah, but it will adjust before you can place money into it....

OR

I wonder if we will be able to put into it on the 28th with an IFT!

If they adjust to the $18 (L2040) level....that could be 100% return in no time!:cool:

Oh I wish it were the stock market......

That's what I am wondering.
How are they pricing this at 10 bucks?

James48843
01-28-2011, 06:48 AM
That's what I am wondering.
How are they pricing this at 10 bucks?

It's priced at ten bucks because that is simply a random starting point. They always do that- just pick an arbitrary number to begin with. It really doesn't matter if it's ten, or one hundred. It's just a number.

then, as the price of the component stocks goes up or down, they adjust the share price every day. If shares go up one percent, then tonight, that $10 is worth $10.10 If it were initially priced at $100 share, and it goes up one percent, the price tomorrow would be $101 dollars.

It doesn't matter what the starting price is. It has NO RELATION to the oher L funds, or anything else.

crws
01-28-2011, 10:29 AM
It's priced at ten bucks because that is simply a random starting point. They always do that- just pick an arbitrary number to begin with. It really doesn't matter if it's ten, or one hundred. It's just a number.

then, as the price of the component stocks goes up or down, they adjust the share price every day. If shares go up one percent, then tonight, that $10 is worth $10.10 If it were initially priced at $100 share, and it goes up one percent, the price tomorrow would be $101 dollars.

It doesn't matter what the starting price is. It has NO RELATION to the oher L funds, or anything else.

I'm trying to figure out if pricing at $10 is an advantage for early participants as far as extra shares for your $ goes- beyond being arbitrary
L2040 started at $14.03 8/1/2005, now at $18.28
Compare that to the S&P over the same timeframe, 1220.33 - 1299.54, and the S Fund 6/2/2003, 10.05 now at 21.81.
Looks enticing to get in early...

PS-
Look what is the first hit on google for this search: wilshire 4500 2005
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2284

James48843
01-28-2011, 11:38 AM
I'm trying to figure out if pricing at $10 is an advantage for early participants as far as extra shares for your $ goes- beyond being arbitrary
L2040 started at $14.03 8/1/2005, now at $18.28
Compare that to the S&P over the same timeframe, 1220.33 - 1299.54, and the S Fund 6/2/2003, 10.05 now at 21.81.
Looks enticing to get in early...

PS-
Look what is the first hit on google for this search: wilshire 4500 2005
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2284


Again, it makes no difference. It's just a number. It has no value, other than the fact that this is the number they are starting with. There is no advantage or disadvantage to the price starting at $10 a share.

The value of L2050 will change depending on the underlying funds, nothing else. If they had started at $100, or $1000 a share, it wouldn't make any difference.

James48843
01-28-2011, 11:44 AM
Ok Tom- it is now confirmed-

You can officially now request to make a trade into the L-2050 fund.

Here is what it looks like on the real TSP page:


10534

Frixxxx
01-28-2011, 01:20 PM
Sorry CRWS


Oh I wish it were the stock market......

This was a qualifying comment. I mixed an apple and orange in my post and that was wrong.
:embarrest:

tsptalk
01-28-2011, 01:39 PM
Ok Tom- it is now confirmed-

You can officially now request to make a trade into the L-2050 fund.

Here is what it looks like on the real TSP page:



10534

Thanks. I'll get that up in a couple hours.

tsptalk
01-28-2011, 06:43 PM
Ok Tom- it is now confirmed-

You can officially now request to make a trade into the L-2050 fund.

Done!

The chances of it being error free are probably less than 50/50. Lots of changes as I removed the L2010 fund from the AutoTracker as well :)

crws
01-29-2011, 02:34 AM
Sorry CRWS


This was a qualifying comment. I mixed an apple and orange in my post and that was wrong.
:embarrest:

No problem, I'm not worried. It looks like a fine mix to auto-pilot for a while. We've had a good run and now it looks to roughen up a bit, then we've got Apr-May.
Like I posted, even the L2040 had a 23% return over the last 5 years (if my math is right at this late hour), so as a slightly more aggressive fund,
(noted January 2011 allocations)

G 3.5%
F 7.0%
C 43.8%
S 18.9%
I 26.8%


seems to me the L2050's got it covered.
It might be a tad light on the S, but the Daq has been smokin, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some M&A action with a fishing expedition by the larger purse strings.
Hell, Monday ain't gonna be no rocket to the stratosphere anyway, so I get to DCA with my .5% G contribution allocation.:laugh:
This fund times out in 2050, which will be way past my dirt naptime anyhew.... but in the meantime, oddly enough, it will be satisfying to see twice as many shares on the ticker, comparatively speaking.

If you check out the year over year spread of L2040 vs S Fund since 2040's inception 10/2004, it has only been the latter 1/2 of 2010 that the S Fund spread has decisively gone over $3.00/share, it had remained well within the initial range of about $2/share for the last 5 years.
It's a fine time to take some market R&R. ;)

KevinD
01-29-2011, 06:01 AM
crws - I was trying to reconcile the price of the 2050 in my own mind and this is what I came up with.

It's kinda like a stock split. Lets say you have 100 shares of XYZ and it splits. Now you have 200 shares but the $ value is still the same. I think it's the same with a reverse split. 200 shares becomes 100 shares but the total value is still the same in dollars.

The percentage gain/loss is calculated on total value so the number of shares doesn't matter. :blink:

I could be full of it but thats the best I could come up with...and I'm not sure I explained it all that well. :o

crws
01-30-2011, 12:35 PM
crws - I was trying to reconcile the price of the 2050 in my own mind and this is what I came up with.

It's kinda like a stock split. Lets say you have 100 shares of XYZ and it splits. Now you have 200 shares but the $ value is still the same. I think it's the same with a reverse split. 200 shares becomes 100 shares but the total value is still the same in dollars.

The percentage gain/loss is calculated on total value so the number of shares doesn't matter. :blink:

I could be full of it but thats the best I could come up with...and I'm not sure I explained it all that well. :o

I like that analogy! Works for me.
Thanks!
'Course with the world events taking center stage, I might pack up and head for the barn, looking for lower entry-point days ahead.
eh- decisions, decisions.

Fed1
03-05-2011, 05:51 PM
Good day,

I am newer at this trading stuff and have a question that I am trying to work through in my head. Regarding the L2050, I will hopefully be way retired by then (I have 20-25 years before I can retire). Reading the posts, it appears that the L2050 could go up 5-7 dollars in the next 5-8 years. Why would you not buy it low and hopefully sell it high in 8 years if that is how long it takes. Let's say, as an example, I buy 5000 shares at $10.30 (51,500)...in 8 years IF it goes up let's say 7 dollars (as some people said it may double by that time) to 17.3 a share I would have 86500 for a 35000 gain for just moving money and letting it sit (Avg of 4375 dollar increase a year over the 8 which believe is around 8.75%). Now I know that it can always go down but for those who have 10 + years to go it seems like a no brainer as I imagine it is at least going to go up a few dollars. I would love to hear thoughts on this strategy. Thanks.

poolman
03-05-2011, 09:17 PM
Good day,

I am newer at this trading stuff and have a question that I am trying to work through in my head. Regarding the L2050, I will hopefully be way retired by then (I have 20-25 years before I can retire). Reading the posts, it appears that the L2050 could go up 5-7 dollars in the next 5-8 years. Why would you not buy it low and hopefully sell it high in 8 years if that is how long it takes. Let's say, as an example, I buy 5000 shares at $10.30 (51,500)...in 8 years IF it goes up let's say 7 dollars (as some people said it may double by that time) to 17.3 a share I would have 86500 for a 35000 gain for just moving money and letting it sit (Avg of 4375 dollar increase a year over the 8 which believe is around 8.75%). Now I know that it can always go down but for those who have 10 + years to go it seems like a no brainer as I imagine it is at least going to go up a few dollars. I would love to hear thoughts on this strategy. Thanks.

It sounds like you are giving an example of what you have heard or read in regards to the L2050 fund. You are thinking in terms of a Buy and Hold strategy. In 2008 the major in-dices and stocks on average lost 10 years worth of gains. Yes we have retraced 50% of this loss almost 3 years later.

I personally think I can Beat the example that you have shown above by being on my toes with what is going on in the Economy and what is going on with the stock market. I myself could not and would not follow the example you have shown above for fear of another 2008 collapse.

It is good that you are thinking of what to do with your money. You give an example of a strategy. But it is investing a certain way and turning your head Me personally, I don't have enough faith to follow it though. I have a limit to how far I am willing to slide downward percentage wise before I pull the plug and return to the garage.

Welcome to TspTalk.com and Good Luck. :)

P.S. I would Double Think the strategy you are proposing.

Fed1
03-06-2011, 10:10 AM
I appreciate you comments poolman. That is one great thing about these forums...everybody helping each other in avoiding potential problems and losses.

I did do something close to what I suggested however I did keep back a lot of money that I can pour into the fund IF it goes down because I do believe that we are going to tank out soon especially with gas prices going up. Before I did what I did, i researched the L funds when they came out and when the 2008 thing happened (L2040 came out around 14.XX and when 2008 hit it dropped to 10.XX). Now I know that they can go down really low which is why I have a bunch of money sitting in reserve to either pump into the L fund or the I fund IF we do tank out to hopefully even out my loss should we tank.

Like I said I appreciate your help and advise. :cool:

Napalm
07-07-2011, 08:58 AM
Does anyone else feel that TSP fund managers are "mandated" to place a higher percentage into US large cap (C fund) for all of their L funds than any normal fund manager would? It seems like Govt wants to help those companies recover, when they are the reason for the last big crash. Small caps are more flexible during recessions and have far better accounting practices when running a business. As of Dec 2, 2010, S&P 500 debt was figured at $7.25 trillion, so I see no justify for why TSP is forcing a larger percentage of your funds to be invested in the C fund. I wouldn't place a dime in the C fund until Corporate America and the Fed clean up their act before another crash occurs.

Silverbird
07-07-2011, 09:44 AM
Since the "L" funds are for those who do not manage their TSP accounts and more or less is the alternative to parking in G or parking in C, the higher highs and lower lows of the S fund are beaten out by the C fund's less volitile actions - or at least that is the theory. If you want to manage your funds at all, I think the L's just do not cut it, especially because as time goes on your allocation automatically becomes more and more conservative - regardless of how the market is going.

rcknfrewld
07-22-2013, 09:54 PM
the 2050 fund price is lower than the G...I can't get it thru my head that the share price doesn't matter...I could accumulate the most amount of shares by moving into the 2050...I know it's about % but isn't having more shares the ultimate goal to accumulating wealth

Frixxxx
07-23-2013, 04:55 AM
The L Funds balance risk across the other funds. It is hard to get through your head I know, but each share is divisible by the "weight" of their investment. This is why they're "the lazy investor" alternative to "Buy and Hold"

SkyPilot
07-23-2013, 06:23 AM
If you are looking at "shares", then you must consider the other factors that neccessarily are share related. Along with quantity, you must also consider value. More shares with less value (along with price) does not equal greater gain. In TSP, shares are an illussion, that is to say, just an expression of the dollar value of your account, and a helpful way of understanding the value relationship between the funds. If you understand that the primary funds were issued at $10 per share when they started using shares, you can see what the funds have done in relationship to each other. You could make this same comparison by looking at percentage growth between the funds during a particular time period. If they removed the "shares" expression tomorrow, it would make no difference. Notice, they do not give you the option to allocate by number of shares, only by "%". And remember, the L "funds" are not funds at all... they are merely composite expressions of the GFCSI funds. They have no dynamics of their own, apart from re-allocating ever more conservatively.



the 2050 fund price is lower than the G...I can't get it thru my head that the share price doesn't matter...I could accumulate the most amount of shares by moving into the 2050...I know it's about % but isn't having more shares the ultimate goal to accumulating wealth

rcknfrewld
07-23-2013, 06:32 PM
so our share prices should only be viewed to see where they came from and where they might go...the prices give us a historical road map to navigate potential tops and bottoms...would a mimic allocation of the 2050 be better...it would be the same I guess except for the rebalancing...

PessOptimist
07-23-2013, 10:57 PM
If you are looking at "shares", then you must consider the other factors that neccessarily are share related. Along with quantity, you must also consider value. More shares with less value (along with price) does not equal greater gain. In TSP, shares are an illussion, that is to say, just an expression of the dollar value of your account, and a helpful way of understanding the value relationship between the funds. If you understand that the primary funds were issued at $10 per share when they started using shares, you can see what the funds have done in relationship to each other. You could make this same comparison by looking at percentage growth between the funds during a particular time period. If they removed the "shares" expression tomorrow, it would make no difference. Notice, they do not give you the option to allocate by number of shares, only by "%". And remember, the L "funds" are not funds at all... they are merely composite expressions of the GFCSI funds. They have no dynamics of their own, apart from re-allocating ever more conservatively.

What SP said.

When I first started with this thing in 97, there were three funds, G, C and F. You got a statement showing the percentages and value of these funds and the whole account. Sort of like "trust us, we're from the gubmint". At one point they created shares by dividing members holdings in each fund by 10. Anyone remember when that was? I noticed it during my long ago search of old statements but was looking for contributions and balance only so didn't document it. IIRC it was around 2003? Whenever, it did make grasping the whole thing easier for some of us.

Along the "does anyone remember" line, when did they create S, I and the L funds?

To me, using the nebulous "shares" method makes it easier to put in a spread sheet. If I owned 1000 shares of C on 11/20/08, the were worth $8,660. Today, 7/23/13, those same shares are worth $21,644. On the other hand on 3/10/09 those shares were worth $7368. Do the math however you like. Just look at the $ amounts. This market is not always going up.

Most of the very valuable spreadsheet tools here on TSP talk that have any age on them use percentages. The reason is that back in the day there was no other way to track your daily balance. I believe that is why the autotracker works the way it does. Some respect and kudos to all the old heads on the board for figuring this out.

About that L2050 Fund.

In one place on the TSP.gov site it states the allocations for L funds will be adjusted quarterly. The info sheet at https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/LFunds.pdf shows the Jan 13 spread as G4 F8 C43 S19 I26.

It states:

"The five L Funds were designed for the TSP by Mercer Investment Consulting,
Inc. The asset allocations are based on Mercer’s assumptions regarding future
investment returns, inflation, economic growth, and interest rates."

No info on who on the FRTIB members own what or who MIC Inc donates what to.

If you were to choose to you could split your own payday allocation to the above percentages and do an IFT to match them. Of course you would not be able to adjust it "daily" as stated in the info sheet.

I have nothing against the L funds and have advised co-workers (once they figured out how to log in) to at least move some of their G to one of the L funds while exploring options. Now I advise them that the market has been going up for a long time and they are on there own.

To all the newer members who weren't around in 08-09, you do not know the true meaning of market correction.

PO

rcknfrewld
07-23-2013, 11:12 PM
"Of course you would not be able to adjust it "daily" as stated in the info sheet."....PO
couldn't you rebalance thru<1%IFTing everyday......funny I just read that <1%IFT thread 5 times and asked amoeba a question about it

PessOptimist
07-23-2013, 11:30 PM
Yeah, probably rckn. If you have time.

edfong
08-16-2020, 11:38 AM
Years after the original discussion, I still believe L2050 is underpriced relative to the older L Funds. Now I believe L2065 and L2060 and L2055 are underpriced relative to L2050. This does not mean the newer L Funds are undervalued. Value and Price are not the same thing just as the stock market and the economy are not the same thing. However, the underlying model behind the L Funds is known by economists as "Efficient Frontier".
This is what was developed by Mercer Consulting. This is what Blackrock manages as the daily NAV for the Board of the TSP. This is what the Board listened to the Aon Consulting when it was argued that L Funds are more conservative in comparision to similar family of products from others like Fidelity and Vanguard. President Trump has introduced politics into the composition of the newer L Funds when he opposed the Board decision to put China into the I Fund. As always, buyer beware and know what you are buying. I argue the TSP Lifecycle funds are related by being all on the save curve as you go out in to the future. All the L funds are related by being on the same curve as you go in toward now L Income. So if you are buying potatoes for tonight's dinner, do you buy individually or in a five pound or ten pound bag? You as a consumer make a choice for what you put in your basket when you go to the market. So not only share price but number of shares does matter. Ultimately, you want your bottom line to be maximized when you start taking distributions for retirement dinners.

nnuut
08-16-2020, 11:46 AM
https://www.tsp.gov/funds-lifecycle/l-2050/

edfong
08-21-2020, 11:51 AM
Does any one think the Core Funds of G F C S and I are over priced or over valued? My belief is that the L Funds Returns are a Weighted Average of the Core Fund's Returns.

tsptalk
08-21-2020, 02:37 PM
Over priced as far as priced more than their targeting index? Or just over priced as in, the market is over priced?

The L funds are just various splits of those 5 funds and reallocated daily to keep their prospectus' allocation.

edfong
08-22-2020, 03:51 AM
Value is in the eye of the beholder. Of course, the general consensus is the that the stock market is overvalued as measured by P/E ratio. It certainiy is heavily weighted by the success or failures of the high tech giants headquartered here in Silicon Valley. And for the most part, the FAANG companies do not pay dividends as they put their earnings back into their business. And the FAANG companies as a rule do their manufacturing overseas.

My question regarding the possible overvaluing of the Core Funds is best represented by how government employees still continue to choose to invest in G Fund when now more than ever it cannot keep up with inflation given the declining interest rates as the Fed continues to make borrowing easy. Simple Supply and Demand means that even at $16-17 per share, it is expensive relative to say I fund which has a negative return year to date. It is cheaper to manufacture overseas.

Regarding the L Funds merely being baskets of the Core Funds, we now have L2035 trading in the neighborhood of $10 per share. But only two months ago, if an investor felt he should be in that place before his retirement in 2035, he would have been forced to buy 50% of L2030 and 50% of L2040 both trading in the neighborhood of $30 per share. Of course L2050 is the neighborhood of $20 per share.

When you buy a ten or five pound bag of potatoes, you get a per unit cost break over picking individual vegetables. But should you pay extra for the pre-packaging? You do with L Income over maintaining an allocation of the Core Funds yourself.

The L Funds are not perfect. But they were put in place in an attempt to help people not comfortable making their own allocation choices beyond the preservation safety of the G Fund.

tsptalk
08-22-2020, 10:19 AM
We may be talking about two different things because it sounds like you have a good understanding of this. But regarding price and value... Will Apple's stock be any more or less valued after it does its 4 for 1 stock split at the end of the month? Will it matter if you owned one share for $500 or 4 at $125 each?

Bullitt
08-22-2020, 10:50 AM
I still believe L2050 is underpriced relative to the older L Funds. Now I believe L2065 and L2060 and L2055 are underpriced relative to L2050.

Here are a few S&P 500 index funds. They all track the same index but have different prices.

VFINX = $314
FXAIX = $118
SWPPX = $52
VOO = $311
IVV = $340
PREIX = $90
BSPAX = $402

PREIX has $31.8B under management but trades at $90
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/preix/quote

BSPAX has $24.1B under management but trades at $402
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/bspax/quote

What difference does it make. If the S&P 500 goes up 1% on the day, the fund goes up 1%. Their five year performance is roughly identical as they both track the same index. The difference is probably tracking error or slightly different fees. (Full five year performance is PREIX 74.15% and BSPAX is 73.58%, again differences in tracking or fee structure)

46978

McDuck
08-31-2020, 02:50 PM
How can 3 of the L-funds have an 10.9% Ytd return when the Highest 'regular' fund the C-fund have a Ytd of 9.9%?

4703647036

papahotel66
08-31-2020, 03:05 PM
If I'm not mistaken those three funds came into existence this year after the March low so they missed the downturn and are up that much since their inception.

tsptalk
08-31-2020, 05:35 PM
Yeah, started at $10 on July 1.

edfong
03-18-2021, 01:23 PM
Gentlemen, I thank you for your input...it does make me re exam what I am suggesting about market efficiency. The input about all the different S&P 500 index funds having different prices is a fair point about the overall stock market having high P/E ratio. But my point is that L2050 and the newer L2055, L2060 and L2065 especially NOT as efficient as they are meant to be all on the same frontier---the basis for the different allocations of the Core Funds as designed by Aon and Mercer. What really screws up the newer L2055, L2060 and L2065 was they are not implemented as designed. The TSP Board decided to not fight Trump and so they do not differ by increasing exposure to China as you go further out into the future on the efficient frontier. What it comes down is whether you believe Harry Markowitz (U.C. San Diego) deserves his Nobel prize for publishing Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.

edfong
03-18-2021, 01:31 PM
Regarding the Apple stock, it does matter to have four shares vs. single share (same total valuation). Your down side risk is reduced when when you have four cheaper shares. Your upside potential is increased because more people can afford whole shares. Of course, I am assuming normal broker and transactions costs where whole shares meaningful, but now people can buy stock shares to the decimal point like mutual shares. Why do you think Apple chose to do the stock split?

Bullitt
03-18-2021, 02:24 PM
Why do you assume it's only men providing input here? There are also excellent female contributors on this site.


What really screws up the newer L2055, L2060 and L2065 was they are not implemented as designed. What it comes down is whether you believe Harry Markowitz (U.C. San Diego) deserves his Nobel prize for publishing Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.

L2055 Fund is currently 99% stocks, 1% bonds.

Same fund with Vanguard is 89% stocks, 11% bonds.

What am I missing? Are you concerned TSP doesn't invest in Chinese companies or that TSP has too high allocation to stocks vs bonds?


My question regarding the possible overvaluing of the Core Funds is best represented by how government employees still continue to choose to invest in G Fund when now more than ever it cannot keep up with inflation

"The G Fund's investment objective is to produce a rate of return that is higher than inflation while avoiding exposure to credit (default) risk and market price fluctuations."

https://www.tsp.gov/funds-individual/g-fund/


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RE: stock splits - They have zero affect on stock valuation.