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Rod
12-20-2004, 03:14 AM
Today is shaping up rather nicely for the (I) FUND!:^

Does anyone know which foreign markets will be open on Christmas Eve???

12-20-2004, 04:15 AM
http://mutualfunds.about.com/cs/history/l/blnyseschedule.htm

http://mutualfunds.about.com/cs/history/a/2003schedule.htm

http://www.daytradingit.com/holidays.html

Rod
12-20-2004, 05:22 AM
Thanx WW!

Looks like the Asian markets will be open on Christmas Eve. I figured they would be.

Might as well be invested somewhere on that day, instead of "sit'n it out".;)

Is the TSP office closed on Friday? I can't find anything on their site.

Happy Christmas!:^

12-20-2004, 06:17 AM
I had to call them the last holiday - too early in AM to call right now.

Rod
12-22-2004, 02:42 AM
The I FUND is acting funny again...

The EAFE was UP 0.70%

YET

The I FUND was down 5 cents.:P

Must have been those smalllosses within the Asian markets.

Mike
12-22-2004, 02:54 AM
The dollar went up yesterday, and that probably did it.

pogo
12-22-2004, 03:35 AM
watching bloomberg early this morning (3.00am) before work, they're saying the euro will hit 1.40 and the sterling will hit 2.00 sooner than later.any ideals when sooner is (when to jump in the I fund)

Mike
12-22-2004, 05:57 AM
They - like us - are guessing.

If currency wasn't such an important factor in the I fund, there'd be little sense investing in it. Europe's current growth rate isn't very good (<0.5% in the 3rd Qtr). Short-term, the dollar can do anything (it was up yesterday, I think). In the intermediate (read: 1-3 months) term, it'll probably drop some more. Long-term, it'll climb back up, since our interest rates are climbing steadily and our economy continues to grow. I would guess this will happen late next year.

smedlap
12-22-2004, 07:49 PM
Pogo, I made a killing Monday in theI fund and Tuesday in the S fund. I switched toS fund on Tuesday and still do not understand how I got an extra positive kicker. It had to be a trailing tailwind as Tom ids such. Note today, even though EFA posted a minor gain, on the TSP historical chart, it turned out to be a fine day. I am back to 100% I fund on Friday.

You guys are just great - Tom, Rod and all of you. Missed my plane but I'm hype!!

Bloomberg is great, especially the Early Asian and European openings when they have "others"giving an unbiased assessment of the US economy and where to play. Tom has it right.

smedlap
12-22-2004, 07:52 PM
Mike - thanks also. Always there making a valid contribution.:^

Rod
12-23-2004, 03:37 AM
Hey guys, since the US markets are closed on Friday, how many of you besides smedlap will be heavily invested in (I).

I'm thinking of it myself... but do I want to be there come Monday since I won't be able to make an IFT tomorrow???

Hummm...

Any thoughts?

coolhand
12-23-2004, 05:16 AM
Hey Rod,

The dollar issomewhat rangebound at the moment, meaning the "I" fund will bemore volatile. I suspect that the market data we've been seeing has had a positive effect on the dollar and has helped prop it up to some extent.And like Mike and Smedlap, I think it will fall some more yet. I'm also inclined toagree with Mikeand his views for 2005 and the "I" fund.

I've read several scenarios in the media on what might happen to the dollar, but likeso much else in thefinancial market it's all speculation. I'm looking for a buy opportunity, but not until after the holidays. Good luck! :)

12-23-2004, 06:45 AM
Christmas Greetings!

At this moment, I am all I fund for the weekend. My thought is that there will be little to prop up the dollar with most of the US influences out for the holiday, thereby allowing the apparent gravity that is presently associated with the dollar to act unimpeded. Could be wrong, though :).

Enjoy the weekend!

coolhand
12-23-2004, 07:31 AM
You mayvery well be rightChaplain.

http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex---US-dollar-near-all-time-low-against-euro--Pound-remains-weak_9800583.html

puertorico
12-23-2004, 10:00 AM
In a up trend a nd good season this work for me in I-FUND

I see the trend of euro vs dollar
euro trend is up {look like gonna still doing new record up}
dollar trend is down {we dont now went gonna stop}
here we go.....

What I'm doing right now is this.I wait unstil the dollar get up to the top.
rightaway jump to I-fund TO catch the next move that have been
dollar down.after dollaris in the top. next move is down& I-fund
get his nice day not matterwhat market is up or down .I not anxpert just
playing a little bit but ultimaly I have been lucky & benifit from I fun in his
up and down move ...:DJust buying I-fund when is low the next day of the
dollar on the top.It not a big deal, just telling what I m doing .When that
happen I-fund get a new high then out & in.
{After a dollar up in the top the next two days are dollar down A LITTLE
THE second day is down again to the botton & i-fund will do a new high}.

Is just my point of viu. Dollar has not stay up in a row just after the top
automatically his neXt move willbe down again.so I benefic from that.
tHAT'S ALL :D.

10-c 30-c 60-i [dec 23rd]...:^

12-23-2004, 10:56 AM
puertorico wrote:
In a up trend a nd good season this work for me in I-FUND




Puertorico, Feliz Navidad, my friend. Bi lo, sell hi! I haven't done that as well as you, but Iwill keep trying:). ¡Próspero año nuevo!

puertorico
12-23-2004, 11:25 AM
CHaplain Merry ChRISTmast ;)

I have'nt doing good with the big rallyes but not bad with
I-fund bounce ,that make it even:D.

Rod
12-23-2004, 11:45 AM
Thanx for the comments, guys!

I decided to remain where I'm at:

35C

55S

10I

Still awaiting the Santa Rally......................:D:shock::D

God Bless & Happy Christmas!:dude:

puertorico
12-23-2004, 11:58 AM
I just make the jump For Santa Rally 60-c 30-s 10-I

hoping I-fund do today{60-i} some new high - :)

smedlap
12-23-2004, 05:36 PM
In Phoenix now Puertorico. Finally. Looks like you did very well today. But you left I and now I am all I. I may have my on-off days out of cycle now and you be the smarter! :^ Happy holidays!!!

Safetyguy
12-23-2004, 09:38 PM
I'm still nervous about the I fund but I can't deny that it has performed well this week.

Regarding the I fund’s performance, the dollar's fluctuations obviously have an impact on the fund's value. The dollar's current weakness has led to the I fund's good showing. Remember, a weak dollar means that the I fund shares you hold (which are presumably valued in foreign currencies) will be worth more “lower value” dollars as the dollar drops compared to foreign currencies. HOWEVER, we mustn’t forget our investing fundamentals here – are the foreign stocks that make up the I fund performing really well or is the rise we have been seeing just due to the dollar dropping? I dunno but I will look into it.

US currency is probably stretched for the short-term,but how low can it go? If it goes to $1.40 to the euro, we can invest appropriately. If the buck drops to a $1.80/euro there are bigger problems that I don't even want to think about. Late-comers to this I fund rally could be buying BOTH an overbought set of global stocks (as covered by the I fund portfolio) AND an oversold US dollar. What this means is that a combination of a dollar rally in conjunction with a fall* in foreign stock prices would aggravate and accelerate losses in the I fund’s share price.


* It is worth noting that EFA is heavily weighted to Banks & Financial Services firms. If Greenspan keeps increasing interest rates “at a measured rate” as promised, other central banks could follow suit. Yield curves around the world would flatten and flat yield curves cut deeply into bank and brokerage profits.The I fund share price would drop like a rock.

puertorico
12-24-2004, 12:08 AM
smedlap Thank u gentleman

Not to chevy I-fund for me in the bounce get lucky again :D

Hey folks

A friend of mine talk me that, take an eye in january he hear
a rumor that january market will go down the hill.So let see
if some body has any information about it.The guy who talk
to me, he call him self as a market master :DIt's funny but he
is very good .Three month ago he recomment me to stay
put 10-c 30-s 60-i unstil the rest of the year.And he advice
me to not put all in one basket, can be to dangerous if I dont
have a cue of what I'm doin.so at last he advice me again
not to get to cue on january.I respect him a lot. I'm not in his
level of knoledge about market.He don't guarantee what he
said but he will take some out of the tablejust in case.


It jus a rumor ,not panic ok let find out
That's all folk ;)

coolhand
12-24-2004, 05:35 AM
Safetyguy wrote:
Remember, a weak dollar means that the I fund shares you hold (which are presumably valued in foreign currencies) will be worth more “lower value” dollars as the dollar drops compared to foreign currencies.

This is true, however I'm not sure what your thought is here. Are you saying that as the dollar drops in valuean investor in the "I" fund would be exposed to a greater risk of loss in the eventual event that the dollarstarts to recover?
If so I would say yes, but if an investor can recognize when to sell off those shares they can avoid a lot of pain. If my investing strategy was buy and hold I would avoid the "I" fundright now.
HOWEVER, we mustn’t forget our investing fundamentals here – are the foreign stocks that make up the I fund performing really well or is the rise we have been seeing just due to the dollar dropping?
In general, I do not believe they are performing particularly well. But as the dollar drops in valuemany foreign stocksappear to bea better value asthose currencies are rising against the global standard, namely the dollar. Our twin deficits are not helping. Fundamentally, risk is increasing in terms of US investments by foreign inflows. And then there is the global imbalance. US consumers continue to spend, spend, spend while saving very little. In Euroland and Asia the opposite is happening. They are sitting on huge amounts of savings and consuming much less than we are. It is possible that if they start consuming more we could see a shift in market dynamics. In that case, those markets may becomethe catalyst that drives the global market instead of the US.
US currency is probably stretched for the short-term,but how low can it go? If it goes to $1.40 to the euro, we can invest appropriately. If the buck drops to a $1.80/euro there are bigger problems that I don't even want to think about.]
No doubt, a drop beyond $1.40/euro would make many more nervous than they might already be. It is important to note that our weak dollar policy is an attempt to reduce our trade deficit. By making our products cheaper on the open market we can export more. That's great for those businesses that compete globally. Unfortunately, some foreign markets are pegged to the dollar (China being a primary one) and is making it difficult for our administration to achieve their goal of increasing exports.
Late-comers to this I fund rally could be buying BOTH an overbought set of global stocks (as covered by the I fund portfolio) AND an oversold US dollar. What this means is that a combination of a dollar rally in conjunction with a fall* in foreign stock prices would aggravate and accelerate losses in the I fund’s share price.

Certainly possible.A dramatic reversal may notbe the most likely scenario. There are negative implications tomore countries than the US should this happen. We are the catalyst driving the global economy right now. Asia is loving it. They are export driven countries (who stay competitive in spite of a weak dollar). Europe on the other hand is suffering from a strong Euro and has not yet gotten its collective act together, but I think they are moving in the right direction. Supposedly, our twin deficits along with John Snow talking down the dollar are preventing a dollar rally. It seems to me we should see a rally coming if this is true.
* It is worth noting that EFA is heavily weighted to Banks & Financial Services firms. If Greenspan keeps increasing interest rates “at a measured rate” as promised, other central banks could follow suit. Yield curves around the world would flatten and flat yield curves cut deeply into bank and brokerage profits.The I fund share price would drop like a rock.
Like a rock? Perhaps, but I have a hard time seeing quarter point increases causing a violent reaction.Our administration is also trying to keep our economy moving. Too much ofan increase in interest rateswould eventually stall that effort. The fedknows that. It is a balancing act. Our prime lending rate isstill in negative territory so we can continue to raise rates "measurably" as AG says, without causing too much pain andkeeping inflation in check.
To be sure, this topic is much more complicated than the above dialogue conveys. I am not sure of anything with regard to the weak dollar. There are too many variables involved. Great comments Safetyguy :^. It will help keep us all thinking.

smedlap
12-24-2004, 08:53 AM
Coolhand,very well articulated with a fine mind. Safyman - thanks for your comments. My 2 cents - Japan yen will continue to drop. Euro will go faster to 1.4 to the dollar before the EU makes an attempt to intercede. I expect it to rise quickly as the market opens next week as Europeans remain on holiday skiing. Can't muster organized support or votes an prefer to vacation vice work. Global companies listed under EFA "are" excellent selections even if their foreign country GDPs and growth rates (less China and an improving Japan) are in the soup. This is why I fund has generally tracked S when the dollar did not fluctuate, and both led C fund. There are precarious waters in front of us probably 5 weeks out so we all need to be alert to make sure we as a group - are safely on the beach, and not trying to make the last play of the day! At least informed. My sack is full already, so I am already very appreciative of the site contributions and am prepared to run (in 5 weeks)!

Safetyguy
12-24-2004, 11:54 AM
Coolhand -- it looks like we are sort of on the same wavelength.

In today's Wall Street Journal, there is an interesting article about the amount of money that is going into foreign stock mutual funds. (12/24/04 page C1 Column 2, "Dollar's Pain Turns out to be Investors' Gain"). If you get the WSJ or can read it somewhere (it is available on-line with a subscription too) it is worth a single sitting read.

One interesting sentence in the article, "Over the past three years, the Morgan Stanley Capital International Eurpoe, Australasian, and Far East Index, or MSCI EAFE Index , of selected stocks has averaged a 0.8% annual gain in local currencies, but that jumps to 12.4% once translated into U.S. Dollar terms, according to MSCI."

I probably will get back into the I fund (maybe up to 30%) at some point in the next few weeks but I want to seereal strength in the EAFE markets and/orreasonable assurance that the value of greenback will stay down.

Are these similiar to your thoughts?What about everyone else?

coolhand
12-24-2004, 02:22 PM
smedlap wrote:

There are precarious waters in front of us probably 5 weeks out so we all need to be alert to make sure we as a group - are safely on the beach, and not trying to make the last play of the day! At least informed. My sack is full already, so I am already very appreciative of the site contributions and am prepared to run (in 5 weeks)!
I agree smedlap! :^I'm not sure about the timeline, but I know we have to monitor the global marketplace carefully. You have done well with the "I" fund my friend. More aggessive than myself, but I'm learning. As I becomemore knowledgable I'll make more aggressive moves (not that I'm conservative).

coolhand
12-24-2004, 02:32 PM
Safetyguy wrote:
Coolhand -- it looks like we are sort of on the same wavelength.

In today's Wall Street Journal, there is an interesting article about the amount of money that is going into foreign stock mutual funds. (12/24/04 page C1 Column 2, "Dollar's Pain Turns out to be Investors' Gain"). If you get the WSJ or can read it somewhere (it is available on-line with a subscription too) it is worth a single sitting read.

One interesting sentence in the article, "Over the past three years, the Morgan Stanley Capital International Eurpoe, Australasian, and Far East Index, or MSCI EAFE Index , of selected stocks has averaged a 0.8% annual gain in local currencies, but that jumps to 12.4% once translated into U.S. Dollar terms, according to MSCI."

I probably will get back into the I fund (maybe up to 30%) at some point in the next few weeks but I want to seereal strength in the EAFE markets and/orreasonable assurance that the value of greenback will stay down.

Are these similiar to your thoughts?What about everyone else?

My thoughts are indeed similar. The WSJ is something I do not currently have access to (unless the library has it). There is so much information on the internet that I am avoiding paying for anything. That and what I learn on this website from others really serves me well. I will say however, thatIbelieve the WSJ to be agood source of information.

30% "I" fund is the most I have held at one time. I can't complain that I'm not currently invested in it though.Up until acouple weeks ago I had exposure to it ever since I started investing in the TSP. I did very well with it. Now I'm looking for a good entry point (near term) again. Don't know if I'll get it. I'm hoping next week.

tsptalk
12-24-2004, 02:53 PM
puertorico wrote:
A friend of mine talk me that, take an eye in january he hear
a rumor that january market will go down the hill.
Thanks PR! I plan to be very careful in January. I mentioned that last year I got burned by being too defensive too early last January. I will lighten up some initially and get even more defensiveon stocks if I see any signs and I hope I'm not making the same mistake again.

12-27-2004, 08:07 AM
puertorico wrote:

Not to chevy I-fund for me in the bounce get lucky again :D





Puertorico, or should I say "Bounce Meister", what's your next move on the I fund, now that the Christmas weekend is over?

puertorico
12-27-2004, 09:11 AM
from 60-c 30-s 10-i today ,

to 30-c 40-s 30-i for tuesday.

10-I Today
30-I Tuesday
50 or 60-I Wed, depend ontuesday's dollar vs euro before deadline

Everyday dollar vs euro can changes how I get on i-fund

When I like to be in I-FUND is when dollar get to 1.340 or more
then the dollar will fall next day half ,and then to the bottom.
It happen two times in the las two week.I dont know in the future will.

Chaplain dont follow me I dont want tofeell guilty ok.:D.I Dont think
is a big deal...:)

smedlap
12-27-2004, 09:40 AM
Take a rest puertoroco. Stay put in I fund minimum - 30%. it is up 0.5% today. You're exhausting me with your trades. Take some easy money and rest more. You did well last week! :^

puertorico
12-27-2004, 09:48 AM
smedlap one week for me ,the other week is for u :Dokhalf and half :^

U take care the i-fund rallies and I take care later in the rebound.:P

12-27-2004, 12:34 PM
puertorico wrote:
Chaplain dont follow me I dont want tofeell guilty ok.:D.I Dont think
is a big deal...:)

Hey, I want to run with the Big Dog! Don't be modest...you got the juice at the moment! Happy New Year. 100% I until the dollar finds some traction... I interpret the US stocks to be out of steam. Maybe play I and G until we get to middle of Jan. Will change my mind tomorrow :P.

Happy New Year!

puertorico
12-27-2004, 02:38 PM
100% I-fund = system-trader, chaplain and smedlap :D

dollar down euro up that means $$$$$$billetes$$$$$$$$ in I-fund:^.

coolhand
12-27-2004, 02:56 PM
Chaplain wrote:
Will change my mind tomorrow :P.

Happy New Year!



Hey, that's how I feel ;).

coolhand
12-27-2004, 02:58 PM
puertorico wrote:
dollar down euro up that means $$$$$$billetes$$$$$$$$ in I-fund:^.

You're doing great puertorico! :^I'm hoping it continues for awhile longer yet.

coolhand
12-27-2004, 03:02 PM
smedlap wrote:
Stay put in I fund minimum - 30%. it is up 0.5% today.
Hey smedlap,

I'm with you. Went 50/50 si today. woof! :D

smedlap
12-27-2004, 05:43 PM
Hi guys. We'll, I was lucky. Somewhat though as I played what I saw to be thebest hand right now. Tom is doing a great job forcasting. Things just didn't turn out right today for the C and S. I do not know why yet. Have to study the data. I fund (lagging) had too much of a spread to catch up to C and S and it is loaded with excellent companies so don't go just go on poor foreign country GDP. I do believe the S will recover. My last comment is S&P 500 fair valuefor Dec 31has beenpegged at1225. As Tom has projected S and I should do better. I think there has been a lot of early jumping (pressure) to get rid of dollars before it really dropped. It is probably oversold but that will not change for a while as Europe and Asia are either out skiing or cleaning up. Our prayors go to all in the Asian beach areas that lost sooooooo much.

Still 100% I fund. Plan remains to play I or S until the last week of January. Have to study early January also. Do not believe C fund to be oversold with 1% gain still achievable as a benchmark. Good luck chaplain, Puertorico, coolhand and Rob. Teknobucks added some good info on currency this weekend. Chaplain, you had your hands full I believe:^ Waiting for Tom's assessment and TSP to update everything!

12-27-2004, 05:56 PM
smedlap wrote:
Our prayors go to all in the Asian beach areas that lost sooooooo much.

Well said, and Amen.

12-28-2004, 08:00 AM
Aother strong dayfor the I fund?

Associated Press
Dollar Slips to New Low Against Euro
Tuesday December 28, 8:29 am ET

Dollar Slips to New All-Time Low Against Euro, Which Rose to $1.3643 in Thin Trading

coolhand
12-28-2004, 08:30 AM
It's a funny thing Chaplain, on the one hand I want to see the dollar slide for the obviousreason of increased"I" fund share price, but at the same time we seem to be inching closer to perceived disaster (as some in the media think).

Is this a case of "be careful what you ask for, you might get it?":shock:

12-28-2004, 08:44 AM
Coolhand, It seems that economic trainwrecks are inevitable doesn't it. However, I am finding that for one aspect of an economy to prosper, ultimately another suffers. Our efforts are to discern which are doing what, and fund accordingly. Wish I had known in 2000 - 2003 what I understand now. These efforts at market timing and trend riding and chart reading are all to know where to avoid potholes, and which is the next rising star. Ambivilent ambiguity.... :D. All that said, go I fund!

Peace and a prosperous new year!

12-28-2004, 08:55 AM
I have been riding the I fund (just 40%) wave for a little over two months (thank God for some really nice gains). But yesterday, I decided to pull back (20%), and load up on the expected dip in the S fund (now 60%), still currently 20% in C fund. I hope the I funds give us some more nice gains, especially for the folks jusy getting in now.

smedlap
12-28-2004, 10:10 AM
Coolhand, Chaplain and RetireRich. Any potential disasterwill beglobal.

Retirerich - smart move as I believe the S is as good as the I Fund.Those of us that have bedded in I fundare just working the currency advantage right now. Tom made anexcellent pointthat I picked up onin hismarket comments wherehe speculated he may have missed the I fund opportunity by 1 day. He has always been an advocate of the S fund. What he was saying to me is he sees the positive swings and he thought he may have traded into a wave, not an opportunity. Fact is, I thought about switching yesterday from the I to the S because of the spread created between the 2 funds in the past 5 trading days. I fund clearly recovered the lead and in my opinion - too far from S fund to be sustained. Yesterday was the time to buy the lead swing opportunity and then when S catches up to the I, change again. For me C is a good basic buy right now but nothing more. So I see funds trading in a narrow progressive range. The opportunity is not just riding the I or S stock funds but switchback opportunities (spreads) where one can double a gain. This will not last longas European traders will soon be off the ski slopes and will attempt to stem the dollar decline! Rotation at 100% is not for the faint of heart, it is hard core play! I do not advocate day trading to anyone unless in a rare positive uptrend market which I think we are in

I will also probably make my last play and transition to G fund hibernation at COB Friday 21 January and wait for a dip which Ihope will come with the FOMC sometime around 2,3,4 February. February ishistorically a slight loss month. Listen to the market analysts on Bloomberg - 8% next year. Thanks to this site and Tom, we did very, very well these last 2 months. I will go into withdrawal.

puertorico
12-28-2004, 10:40 AM
Will be time to S cacth up I-Fund ?:)

puertorico
12-28-2004, 10:45 AM
Maybe a correction i I-fund when s catch up .Thinking to get
out of I-Fund. I'M DISORIENTED SMedlap :D

puertorico
12-28-2004, 10:51 AM
I will stay put 30-c 50-s 20-i today and tomorrow.:cool:

smedlap
12-28-2004, 11:44 AM
Good play. I think the S and I are the better funds of the 3 stockright now and for the near future. The spread is closing. One can only play it at it's widest margins. I'm still 100% I and will stay here for the time.:)

12-28-2004, 12:54 PM
Smedlap, PuertoRico, Coolhand, I still think the I fund is the way to go. I would love to diversify a bit, but the single piece of news that seems to be stable is that the dollar continues to decline, along with at least stable I fund country economies head up a bit. The S fund seems to have more room to grow than the C, but for now I will stick in I and watch for signals.

Happy New Year.

smedlap
12-28-2004, 02:53 PM
My prayors are with you Chaplain, and for me as I will stick with I until I hit that speed bump or see it forming. :^

12-28-2004, 04:46 PM
smedlap
I think for once I made a really nice move jumping into the S fund (60%) on the dip yesterday. It looks like the S fund came roaring back today, and I still got some play in the I fund (20%), with the kicker in the C fund (20%). Don't know how long I will maintain this kind of exposure-today was also a good for my individual stocks too (overall). I think I will exhale sometime thisweek and move some into the G fund. I wont go completely out though.

Recent WSJ had article where two of the top market analyst totally disagee on the which way the market will go in 2005. Talk about confusion, and then there's Mark Hulbert's article about the PVR inidcator(sp) showing how overbought the market.

I want to be aggressive, but not greedy-especially if it leads to being caught in the market at an inopportune time.

smedlap
12-28-2004, 05:22 PM
You clearly made the "smart" play of the day and we all were watching. Kind of rewarding when one studies all the posts, takes some independent risk, makes an "independent"moveand is then - well rewarded. Fine, fine job my friend. Don't go to sleep now. This one is past you and now it's time to look for the next smart move to add further to the sock. But good job!!!