Watching the Banks

[Bullitt]

KRE looks to be completing a base pattern here. Will it break out? When this whole thing started going down in 2007, we all said we'd watch the banks for guidance.

7929

[Bullitt]

I don't consider this action in the regionals bullish here. Take a look at the volume, this has all the makings of a blow off top.

8030

[tsptalk]

Nice call on the breakout. What would a sell-off in the small banks mean to the market in the short-term? Obviously they benefited from today's announcement. Are you thinking things will return to normal - small banks give back recent gains, big banks recoup losses, or something else?

[Bullitt]

The CEO of ING Direct had a good argument today about loan modifications (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704541004575011420045962424.html?m od=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion).

Today's move probably was some kind of unwinding because if you look at XLF, it got hammered today on huge volume. Haven't looked at any options activity, but I'm guessing there was some big action in the way of hedging strategies are happening here because nobody knows what this Obama plan exactly entails.

Regionals are more important than the big banks IMO. We already know the big banks aren't going away any time soon as long as there is that line in the sand. This market has been on eggshells since the VIX stayed below 20 for some 7 trading days, so I can't say the big banks getting hammered is any surprise to me here. Yes, I think this is a blow off top in the regionals and no way am I a buyer here. The Philly Bank Index has a huge 25 week trading range and meanwhile the S&P was up around 14% during that time period (to its recent top). That alone is a good divergence worth noting.

[Bullitt]

Doesn't look like wall street cares too much for this new plan to loan money to main street banks. KRE diverging again on XLF as the TBTF's satiate for more risk. This is not the kind of action you want to see on this ETF during big up days for the general market.


8152

[Bullitt]

The banks continue to give us warning signs. MACD rolling over below the zero line, low volume rally out of a bearish wedge, and good volume today on the swing high dump below the 50 DMA.

8495

[Bullitt]

A look at the banks give us an indecisive message going forward. However, no matter how bullish the KRE looks, buying pressure seems to be diminishing. In my opinion, these charts are both bearish. KRE could be a bull trap.

8608

XLF still has good resistance ahead and appears overbought right here after what I believe to be a blowoff top. Last time I felt we had a blowoff top in XLF was in late January, just as the market 'corrected'.

8609

[Bullitt]

It is amazing what liquidity can do to a market. Citi went over a billion shares two days in a row again. I doubt anyone is buying off of fundamentals either. XLF looks majorly overbought here. Will this resistance break hold?

I don't like that long term declining MACD either.

8644

[Bullitt]

XLF looks to be blowing off here. KRE fought it off earlier in the year and continued to grind higher, but the top looks more promising in XLF this time around. I know the aura of this thread has been bearish the past month or so, but the distribution in this market has been obvious. Markets will try to suck in all available bears before finally turning down. This market is a complete drunken circus.

8819

[Bullitt]

In case you still believe the propaganda being pasted on the front page by our apparatchiks, look no further than the profits being made at the big banks. Not only did GS have a perfect quarter, but so did BAC, JPM and (sources say) C (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100511-718495.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines). Here are 4 companies that were on their knees begging for forgiveness (and a loan from the fed at .1%) a little over a year ago. We have been completely sold down the river.

A drive down any main shopping strip yields vacant buildings and parking lots with weeds growing in the cracks. Oh, but don't worry, the bull will save us. There isn't any real wealth in this world, it's a facade of credit and slight of hand tricks. The media continues to brainwash the public over the recent market intraday CRASH last week by blaming it on fat fingers, HFT, and now a trader who 'had a big short position in the futures market'.

Meanwhile, the distribution of shares from professional crooks to the unknowing public is nearly complete as evidenced by 8 of the last 17 trading days in most majors being distribution days; not to mention overly bullish sentiment surveys and PC ratios. Have no fear as long as the AD line keeps going higher. It's working master.

[FAB1]

You go bullitt. scary stuff but right on. they need carbon trading to go full steam to elongate the farce. not sure what the masters will do with themselves once they got it All and everyone else is eating dirt and grass. maybe theyll be bored to death and lose their minds.

[CountryBoy]

Amen Bullitt and when the music stops guess who won't have a chair to sit in. America already is brainwashed.

[Frixxxx]

Amen Bullitt and when the music stops guess who won't have a chair to sit in. America already is brainwashed.
We were invited to this dance???

Look, I'm thinking the next time we get to 11,000, I'm out fool (pun) bore!

I think we are going to see some more jobless numbers and that coupled with more European debt and no real estate movement this summer will crush us.:cool:

[hessian]

Anyone know what was happened with Wells Fargo/Wachovia today (5/19/10).
I saw early, they appareantly had dropped some on something about them returning/repaying a government bailout/loan - but I'd think that would be good news for them. :confused: Anyone hear on this bank, and can explain in lay-terms?

[Bullitt]

I can't take any 'news' serious since it has all been leaked to the major players days prior anyway. Without proprietary trading desks, the big banks (WFC, C, GS, MS, BAC and JPM) are bankrupted entities just like GM.

I'm of the opinion that the music has been off since February when big volume selling came in on the downside. This is now what I call The Great Trap. Big money is dumping shares off to the little guy who really believes that this is merely an interlude within an ongoing drunken circus. The keg is kicked but there are still a few left trying to suck out the foam.

Banks are underperforming the general market here. Take heed.

9448

[hessian]

Not sure where is best to post this (thinking of Poolman's Acct Talk, post of the Man-Of-Truth video earlier).
Anyway, more rumors/rumblings coming out on financials/banking... :blink:

Friday, June 4, 2010
US financial markets may be shut down on Monday (http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/06/us-financial-markets-may-be-shut-down.html)

It is my collective read that US financial markets may finally be shut down on Monday June 7, 2010, if Fed Desks don't intervene on Sunday night.

We have never been this close to the inevitable outcome.

Every single day, it is becoming more visible to the masses that a large portion of the western civilization is bankrupt with no savings, no production, no growth, no future prospects.

Today Hungary joined the club. Eventually they will take their creditors with them into abyss. Most of the Arab and Iran central banks are now switching from Euro to USD and Gold.

Like Sol said, "Bear Market Rules Apply" but this bear is something you have never seen in your life. Save your wealth, children, family and future. 2008 was just a warm up.

[hessian]

Analysis: G20 doesn't even try to put brave face on debt mess
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6550SJ20100606
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks to the media during a news conference of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Busan June 5, 2010.

...GEITHNER ON THE LOSING SIDE
One reason why the talks were heated, in the words of a senior South Korea (http://www.reuters.com/places/south-korea)n official, was a rearguard action fought by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who argued that restoring fiscal sustainability was a task for the medium term.
In a frank letter to his counterparts, Geithner warned that global growth would be sub-par if Europe -- especially Germany -- as well as China and Japan (http://www.reuters.com/places/japan) did not boost domestic demand to make up for the retrenchment forced upon overindebted U.S. consumers.
...And Germany (http://www.reuters.com/places/germany) gave short shrift to the view, shared by the IMF, that growth would take a hit in the short term if rich economies cut their budget deficits without adjustments by emerging economies to reduce their reliance on exports.
"I made no bones about the fact that I share the IMF's underlying philosophy only in a very limited way," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.
It is never good news when two of the world's biggest economies bicker. U.S. pressure on Germany (http://www.reuters.com/places/germany) to change its monetary policy was one of the factors that unnerved investors in the run-up to the 1987 stock market crash.
...SETBACKS ALL ROUND
With Europe signing up for austerity, it is no wonder that pessimists such as U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini see the euro zone heading for stagnation if not recession.
And in the absence of a burst in private sector demand in current account surplus countries such as Germany (http://www.reuters.com/places/germany) and China, global economic imbalances could deteriorate again -- especially if a resurgent dollar undercuts the revival in U.S. exports.
The immediate test, though, will be whether bond traders will be convinced by the G20's promise of probity.
"Noble intentions by advanced economies to bring their budget deficits under control are rubbing up against the harsh reality of a weak and unstable recovery that might increase the need for further stimulus measures," said Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank.
Prasad, a trade professor at Cornell University and a former IMF economist, said the G20 had recognized the depth of the public debt morass and the consequent risk of global instability.
"But the communique is unlikely to give bond markets much confidence that budget deficits will be brought under control with anything approaching the alacrity with which they were run up during the height of the crisis," he said.
The G20 is grappling with complex issues. It is unrealistic to expect magic-bullet solutions from such a diverse group of rich and emerging economies. But it is tough to put a positive gloss on the Busan meeting.
And, in the end, ministers did not even try.:cool:

[James48843]

...
Friday, June 4, 2010
US financial markets may be shut down on Monday (http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/06/us-financial-markets-may-be-shut-down.html)

It is my collective read that US financial markets may finally be shut down on Monday June 7, 2010, if Fed Desks don't intervene on Sunday night.

We have never been this close to the inevitable outcome.



Cheer up. At least if the currencies of the world are worthless, and the markets shut down, we still have the "G" fund to play in.


C3GtxtWSZxE

[hessian]

Cheer up. At least if the currencies of the world are worthless, and the markets shut down, we still have the "G" fund to play in.
Good one James! :)
Yeah, I thought by posting that from xTrends.com that others might uncover other news (either verify/not confirm). Best I could find was news from the G20 mtg. A good rap though: "G is just alright with me" (for now). :D

PS Likely of minor interest, still, on the P&F chart - a new bearish P.O. there - now 920.

[hessian]

Likely beyond "watching the banks." Or, maybe it is really watching "The Banks!"
- Will this (China's) blatant manipulation be a one-day-wonder? - a sustained pop?, - or a flop?... :blink::rolleyes:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/19/news/economy/china_exchange_rate/index.htm

[hessian]

Banks Dodged a bullet?

"Hmmm..... (http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUFvcuOXJYWM&pos=2)

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Legislation to overhaul financial regulation will help curb risk-taking and boost capital buffers. What it won’t do is fundamentally reshape Wall Street’s biggest banks or prevent another crisis, analysts said.
Probably.http://www.tsptalk.com/uploads/2010/Jun/jackass.png
The ink is not yet dry and there's no vote yet on exactly what this bill actually is and does. I'll be doing my usual analysis once I have an actual stable copy.


But what I can tell from watching CSPAN until the wee hours, and following the process as closely as I reasonably can without crawling up Barney Frank's skirt, this is what we got:

Banks will have to spin off SOME (but not the important parts) of their derivative operations. The parts they care about (and on which they make the most money) are not credit-default swaps, they're interest-rate and FX swaps. Those are pretty much left alone, and that stinks. Bet on them trying to find every possible way to keep those "custom" as much as they can and thus off exchanges, even though that's almost entirely bogus and intended only to rape the consumer of those products by hiding price discovery.


Investing in hedge funds is a red herring. Controlling them is another matter, and might in fact be worthwhile reform. We'll see. Color me skeptical on this one until I can read the ACTUAL text as passed.


It appears that language that would prevent banks from taking positions opposite to their clients (as opposed to hedging market-making risk) has survived. This would prevent the Goldman-esque game played with various CDO structures. Again, I wait until I can read actual language before I call this good.


Increasing capital is good. Not forcing that capital to cover all unsecured lending is bad. The attempt to split the baby and keep the "credit leverage" game is clear in the legislation, but so far nothing they've tried has made that actually work, nor do I think it can. Thus, the major factors in the instability we experienced remain intact and that's bad.


Fannie and Freddie are left out of it. That's horrible. I know the banks went bananas on the possibility they'd be constrained, but they need to be constrained and the banks need to be forced to pay for their part of interacting with Fan/Fred and causing this mess. Not in this bill it won't, and that sucks.
Much of the bill also won't do anything immediately, as it "enables" rather than directs in and of itself. That's very bad, as the regulatory capture process remains intact. What actual regulations will come out of this remain an open question.
On balance: Better than no bill, and Judd Gregg claiming that the bill is a "disaster" and will "dramatically contract credit" is just pure garbage. What it will do is stop a small amount of unsupportable and unsustainable lending, but nowhere near enough of it. It will not stop excessive risk-taking and risk-layering. The capital requirements aren't stringent enough, the "Volcker Rule" was watered down to the point of being of little effect and the derivatives regulation was eviscerated.
Oh, and nowhere that I can find - thus far - is there an "or else" for either a bank or a regulation for violations of the law.
On balance, thus far, I call it this:
http://tickerforum.org/smilies-local/nothingburger.gif
All bun to (try to) soothe the masses and electoral anger, no beef."

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2454-Banks-Dodged-A-Bullet.html

[James48843]

Bank stocks zoomed higher today.

The banks won.

There still will be "TOO BIG TO FAIL".

They won't be broken up.

Sucks.

All we got is some window dressing. That's it.

[James48843]

The ONLY thing you have to know is this-

Yesterday, Citibank closed at $3.77 a share.

Today, it closed at $3.94 a share.

You tell me- you think anything at all is going to be done to control the banks????

[Bullitt]

Banks just diverged away from the S&P in a major way after that ruling. Makes me thing the watered down version isn't as harsh as the crooks believed it would be.

9625

www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com)

[Bullitt]

Whoa, major head fake! XLF:SPY ratio is now at .132.

XLF made a H&S reversal on the weekly chart and looks like KRE is sitting on support. When these things go, be prepared for the resumption of bank closing Friday. Looks like we are at 174 now for the past year (http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html) ending on last Friday.

[hessian]

Banking/Financials dropped big today ($BKX 2.36%)
Related??
"Crack Smoking Part Deux (http://www.tsptalk.com/archives/2516-Crack-Smoking-Part-Deux.html)" [re: The Fed, Treasury, etc.]

..."We'll start with the fact that these charlatans get the cycle backwards - Treasury sells the debt first, not the other way around, and to do so it must find someone who has surplus in dollars - the currency in which the Treasuries are funded.
Let's next run this little claim to exhaustion in an attempt to see if this is a clear-cut Ponzi Scheme - ask yourself why Treasury doesn't just print up and sell the entire $14 trillion in GDP every year.
That would instantly absorb all excess capacity and result in an immediate and monstrous economic boom, right?
Well, no, it would not.
Were Treasury to attempt to do this it would discover what the words "failed auction" mean in short order, as there simply isn't enough existing surplus (electronically or otherwise) to absorb that supply."

"...See, we haven't printed anything. "QE" where the reserves created are immediately deposited with The Fed is a circle-jerk. There is no money-printing going on until and unless the reserves created enter the economy in some form. So long as they remain on deposit with The Fed it is simply a pass of a $20 bill from them to you and back to them - the net monetary impact is zilch.
To add insult to injury, Bernanke got the exact opposite reaction he was looking for! By "buying" Fannie and Freddie (along with Treasury) paper he didn't support price and suppress coupon - to the contrary, as this chart shows, as soon as he started "QE" the 10 year Treasury yield went higher, not lower, and it was the end of "QE" that marked the top the 10 year Treasury rate!
Again: Why?

That's simple: Credit creation against nothing (that is, not backed by actual hard collateral - that is, surplus already produced in some form), is simply a naked short against the monetary system. That is, the writer of such a position is agreeing to deliver money he does not yet have and may not be able to acquire, with nothing other than his word behind that promise.
It doesn't matter if that short is created by a government or a private actor, with one important distinction: in a fiat currency system government can decide to emit unbacked currency to satisfy a naked short, where private parties cannot."

"...Remember, a naked short is self-limiting because the shorted item doesn't actually exist. That is, it is counterfeiting in the purest sense; you're selling something you don't have and may not be able to acquire. The important fact to remember, however, is that a naked short will eventually unwind, and when it does, the depression of price that occurred when it was created will be reversed.

Printed additional "shares" (or currency), on the other hand - that is, raw, unbacked emission - does the opposite - it creates permanent debasement.
Likewise, the argument that "QE" reduced or capped rates is exactly backward. It did no such thing - it in fact caused rates to rise - that is, it supported bank THEFT via interest from ordinary Americans - exactly the opposite of the claimed intended effect!" :sick:
[more...]
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

[hessian]

Banking/Financials dropped big today ($BKX -2.36%)
Banks/Financials jumped big today ($BKX +3.90%) :suspicious:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p55192775979

[hessian]

Curious, I checked what Index/Sector made out the best today? (This was apparently a very low volume day.) Well, looked over most of them, and best I can tell it was, yes, the $BKX at +3.15%. :cool:
(Just something to consider...)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p55192775979

[hessian]

Monday, August 9th. - Stock Trends, Charts, and Commentary

"Financials now make up 16.26% of the S&P 500 index.


So, it would be very helpful for the S&P 500 if banks were healthier, making good profits, and trending higher.

So, what is happening to the Banking Index? Is it moving higher, stalling, or falling? Today's chart shows the action of the Banking Index ($BKX) going back to August of 2009.

What's clear, is that the index has been in a sideways trading range since May of this year.

Starting in July, that range morphed into a triangular pattern whose apex will occur before the end of next week.

What does that mean?

It means that the Banking Index will breakout of the pattern soon, and the ensuing move should be between 10% to 13% from the breakout level.

So ... this will either be very good, or very bad for the S&P 500."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

9823

[hessian]

Just FYI, why "Watch-The-Banks"? Most here know they are the bad-guys. The crooks. The PPT has been pumping trillions to "save" them - and they got us into this mess.
The latest, bill-on-the-Hill - is to "save" the underwater homeowners [only]. In reality, its just more of our dollars/debt that will end up going to the Banks. :sick:
There are other reasons to watch 'em! - Its our money/our debt after all!
(Just thought I'd add perspective on why I think this thread could be used for so much more.) VR!

[Bullitt]

You got that right Hessian. If these guys are down, the market will be down. Oh, how I remember 2 years ago (ancient history in the stock market) how the gurus proclaimed, "Watch the banks! We can't rally out of this credit mess without them."

Second test of support failed on KRE and momo is to the downside especially after the failed downtrend breakout. Major divergence taking place right now.

9837

[Bullitt]

And the downtrend plays on. It's all about lending. If anybody is doing it, these guys will show it in their price performance.

9968

9967

[Birchtree]

I think you'll begin to see more bank buyouts in the immediate future - I should hopefully own a few that will go out with a nice premium.

[hessian]

Banking Index $BKX was down large today: -3.17%, an amount that gave back the last 2 days (Thurs & Friday), and then some.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p55192775979


I think you'll begin to see more bank buyouts in the immediate future - I should hopefully own a few that will go out with a nice premium.
Birch, I agree, re: more bank buyouts likely - and also like to find info on whether bank defaults are increasing (whether any such trend is started).
VR

[crws]

This is a comprehensive read, and well worth the whole article.

http://www.truth-out.org/shock-therapy-wall-street-jpmorgan-suspends-56000-foreclosures-gmac-and-boa-many-more63803
Shock Therapy for Wall Street:
JPMorgan Suspends 56,000 Foreclosures; GMAC and BOA Many More
Saturday 02 October 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqnHLDeedVg
On September 30, Rep. Alan Grayson posted a devastating seven-minute video, in which he gave four real-world examples of such travesties of justice, including a man who was foreclosed on when he didn’t have a mortgage and paid cash for the home; a home that had two foreclosure suits against it because both servicers claimed ownership of the title; and a couple foreclosed on over a contested $75 late fee.
Grayson blamed the massive foreclosure problems largely on the electronic shortcut called MERS. “The banks simply digitized mortgage titles into a privatized system, called the Mortgage Electronic Registry System (or MERS),” he said. “And it did the transfers by trading Excel spreadsheets among the banks and trusts, rather than endorsing the notes as required by their own contracts, by state real estate law and by IRS rules.” He stated that 60 million properties are recorded in the name of MERS -- 60% of the mortgages in the USA, and 97% of the loans made between 2005 and 2008.
For all those mortgages filed in the name of MERS, say these courts, the chain of title has been irretrievably broken. Humpty Dumpty has had a great fall and cannot be put back together again.

MERS is simply an electronic data base. On its website and in assorted court pleadings, it declares that it owns nothing. It was set up that way intentionally so that it would be “bankruptcy-remote,” something required by the credit rating agencies in order to turn the mortgages passing through it into highly rated securities that could be sold to investors. MERS not only has no assets; it has no employees. The thousands of people enlisted to sign affidavits on its behalf are merely conduits. The arrangement satisfied the ratings agencies, but it has not satisfied the courts. Increasingly, judges are holding that if MERS owns nothing, it cannot foreclose, and it cannot convey title by assignment so that the trustee for the investors can foreclose. MERS breaks the chain of title so that no one has standing to foreclose. The homes are effectively owned free and clear.

That does not mean the homeowners don’t owe money to someone. They do. But the claim for relief is not in “law” (by virtue of an enforceable contract or rule) but in “equity” (a remedy provided just because it is fair), and MERS is not the proper plaintiff. Every MERS case involves a securitization, which means the real parties in interest are a group of investors somewhere; and before the homeowners can be made to pay, the investors have to come forward and prove not only that they are the parties owed the money, but the actual sums they are owed. In some cases they might already have been paid; for example, by insurers on credit default swaps held by the investment pool. The investors are entitled to recover in equity only so much as they are actually out of pocket, not the full amount of the original promissory notes, since they were not parties to those notes and there is no way to re-establish the chain of title.

What About the Non-judicial Foreclosure States?

Foreclosures have been suspended by JPMorgan, GMAC and BOA in 23 states, but what about the rest? The others are non-judicial foreclosure states, which means they allow foreclosure through a power of sale clause in a deed of trust without going to court. The presumption is that if the lender doesn’t have to prove his standing to sue before a judge, he can proceed. State laws in non-judicial states allow the sale of a property to satisfy a foreclosure as long as the trustee follows the regulations concerning notice. That would seem to violate Constitutional due process, but the United States Constitution has held that due process protections apply only when the government is involved in the taking of property. When a deed of trust and promissory note are executed between two private parties (homeowners and lenders), there is no automatic due process protection. The homeowners agreed to it in writing; case closed.

But here’s the catch: what if the lender signing the original documents is not the party foreclosing on the property? Then it becomes a question of fact whether the foreclosing party has authority to proceed, and that makes it a judicial issue – a question of fact for the courts. If the foreclosing party can show a clear chain of title – an assignment or progression of assignments from the original lender to himself – he is home free. But courts have increasingly been holding that MERS breaks the chain of title. Foreclosure expert Neil Garfield argues that even in non-judicial foreclosure states, that means the investors have to go to court to prove their case. And when they do, they will run up against the brick wall of MERS. He concludes:

"There will be a head-slapping moment when title carriers, attorneys, judges and administrative agencies and clerks suddenly realize that the monster created on Wall Street has its equivalent in the public records of counties across the nation. I doubt if more than 6-7% of all the foreclosures in the past 10 years have resulted in clear title delivered to anyone. And the only corrective instrument can come from the original owner. That homeowner is sitting in the catbird seat and doesn’t know it. Millions of people who THINK they have lost their homes still own them and if anyone wants a signature from those people to clear title, they are going to be required to pay dearly, which is at it should be. Eventually the purse gets returned to the victim from whom it was snatched."

From the NY Times:
Foreclosures Slow as Document Flaws Emerge (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/business/01mortgage.html?_r=4&ref=david_streitfeld)

The foreclosure machinery that has forced millions of Americans out of their homes is beginning to seize up as some lenders and their lawyers are accused of cutting corners in their pursuit of rapid home repossessions.

Wall Street was examining the impact the disclosures could have on the lenders. Moody’s Investors Service has placed the servicer ratings of GMAC and Chase on review for possible downgrade.

[crws]

Phase 2, notably for you Floridians

Fired worker says home foreclosure firm forged documents (http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/oct/07/fired-worker-says-home-foreclosure-firm-forged-doc/)
Attorneys and staff members forged signatures and changed dates, casually passed around notary stamps, and notarized stacks of blank documents to be filled in later, said Tammie Lou Kapusta, in an interview with attorney general's staff.

[nnuut]

Man, I'm glad mine is paid for and I have the paperwork!:)
CROOKS are everywhere, and the regulators knew NOTHING about it, surely? :nuts:

[crws]

you don't suppose...
the financial services industry ran the market up to try and cover for this upcoming mortgage mess....
nah.... conspiracy theory!
It's a Bull market- and election cycle- buy, buy, buy!

Sept 20 and counting...

Goldman sued by SEC
April 16 to May 6 = 21 days
New York Times article
"Europe's Web of Debt" May 1

[crws]

Going Viral, place your bets:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCM7rMIqxmk

Think he's a little much?
see this..... from 2006

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEAb8Hbk_Q4

In the EU, Dec 7th is "Banker Mutiny" day.
Will there be sufficient paper currency reserves if this migrates to the US?
(http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=289155&postcount=264)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/man-u-player-century-eric-cantona-appeals-peaceful-revolution-against-banks-calls-europeans-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Uop5R7E314

[tsptalk]

Think he's a little much?
see this..... from 2006...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/111910a.gif

[crws]

round and round she goes, where she stops...
Is Bank Of America WikiLeaks’ Next Target? (http://blogs.forbes.com/andygreenberg/2010/11/30/is-bank-of-america-wikileaks-next-target/?boxes=Homepagelighttop)

only the market knows?

http://www.poliwogs.com/pictures/banks.png

[Intrepid_Timer]

I hope someone looks into when this guy trades the stock market and when he releases info..............................:suspicious:

[crws]

I hope someone looks into when this guy trades the stock market and when he releases info..............................:suspicious:

How could BofA LOOSE a hard drive full of data??? From an Exec?
Truly amazing.


Now an eagle-eyed reader has sent me a link to a quote from a Computer World interview (http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139180/Wikileaks_plans_to_make_the_Web_a_leakier_place)
with Assange from October of 2009, which, if true, may contain a clue to that bank’s identity:

“At the moment, for example, we are sitting on five gigabytes from Bank of America,
one of the executive’s hard drives,” he said. “Now how do we present that? It’s a difficult problem.
We could just dump it all into one giant Zip file, but we know for a fact that has limited impact.
To have impact, it needs to be easy for people to dive in and search it and get something out of it.”

[crws]

Ally Bank's Straight Talk Is Crooked (http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/ally-banks-straight-talk-is-crooked-1300374728021/)


When we last wrote about Ally (http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/ally-banks-alchemy/), we noted how the company promised it "won't deal in half-truths, kindatruths, or truths only buried in fine print.
That's because we don't have anything to hide. We're always going to give it to you straight."

Two years later, Ally continues to promote honesty and straight talk while still on the taxpayers' dime.

Just like Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/geithners-dubious-doublespeak/), who calls those not paying their mortgages "responsible homeowners" or President Obama (http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/short-term-investing/the-president-revisionist-market-history/),
whose administration adamantly holds forth that "gamblers playing with other people's money" caused the economic collapse, the ads require a willing suspension of objective reality.
Dump 'em & go local.
one caveat: I do agree with Obama's statement ;)

[crws]

a couple hundred more reasons why .gov won't let BofA fail...


http://www.poliwogs.com/pictures/IRS_shrunk.jpg

-they'd have to switch banks! :rolleyes:

[Bullitt]

Financial markets need increased lending, buyout activity, and underwriting to keep forging ahead. Therefore, it only makes sense for the financials to lead the market.

Generally still bullish with good breakouts in 2013. XLF looks stronger than KRE most likely due to that fact that TBTF are in a better position to reap the benefits of a zero interest rate policy.

XLF includes all the too big to fails.
24022

KRE tracks regional banks.
24023

[Birchtree]

I had the good fortune back in the day to purchase many toxic financials for both myself and my daughter. They are now part of our core holdings. It took much courage and a willingness to throw money away - but I have no regrets. Now if I can be as successful with my coal holdings.

[hotwings]

I had the good fortune back in the day to purchase many toxic financials for both myself and my daughter. They are now part of our core holdings. It took much courage and a willingness to throw money away - but I have no regrets. Now if I can be as successful with my coal holdings.

Me too... picked up BAC, JPM, C, WFC , KEY and HBAN at their lows and now they are blooming. Picked up a few more BTU this morning at $18.50 and I expect to see it bloom in a year or two as well. Coal consumption in the USA might level off or go down, however, the emerging economies like China and India are going to need it. The five largest coal users - China, USA, India, Russia and Japan - account for 76% of total global coal use. According to the IEA Clean Coal Centre, there are over 2300 coal-fired power stations worldwide (7000 individual units). Approximately 620 of these power stations are in China. With BTU being the 3rd largest coal producing company in the world, I think it's a decent intermediate/long term investment.

Frequently Asked Questions - World Coal Association (http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/frequently-asked-questions/)

[Bullitt]

Reality is starting to set in for the banks in a zero interest rate policy environment. The more the banks drop, the more likely dividend cuts are to occur, but if buybacks are suspended, free cash could keep dividends from disappearing.


Wells Fargo (WFC), one of the largest U.S. banks, has acknowledged that it will be a casualty. It announced late last month that its third-quarter dividend will need to be reduced, from its current 51 cents a share.

Research firm IHS Markit is projecting that the bank’s payout will be slashed by 60%, to 20 cents a share.

One tail wind for dividends is that many companies—large banks in particular— have cut back on share repurchases. Instead of directing cash to what had become a popular way to return capital to shareholders in recent decades, companies might now have spare cash for dividends.

Last year, Nijenhuis says, S&P 500 members spent roughly $800 billion on buybacks. He expects that figure to be halved this year. “That does make paying a dividend much easier,” he observes.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dividend-tide-turns-barring-a-second-wave-heres-how-to-avoid-a-wipeout-51594306801

[Bullitt]

Sitting on moving average and trendline support. Need the "value stocks" to join in if the market isn't going to collapse. What's it going to be?

46810

[Bullitt]

While Robinhooders watch TSLA, NKLA, AAPL, the banks put in a higher low.

47124

[Bullitt]

XLF now above June highs.

[Bullitt]

Second weekly close above June highs, leaning bullish towards a recovery.

47742

[nasa1974]

That large gap is a little scary.

[Bullitt]

About a month ago, we highlighted a bearish divergence in the semiconductor ETF (SMH) that indicated a potential rotation away from this growth-oriented group into more value plays. That rotation played out fairly well, as the SMH has indeed pulled back and broken its swing low from February.

Now we are detecting a similar bearish pattern in the Financial Sector ETF NYSEARCA: XLF as well as many of the big financial stocks and regional bank names.

Video could have been one minute instead of ten, but David Kellar is calling for a move lower in banks. Sure doesn't help that NMR and CS are down over 10% today.


https://youtu.be/6yi0kFEvQgA

https://www.seeitmarket.com/bearish-trigger-for-financials-sector-etf-xlf/

[Bullitt]

The Fed last week said 23 of the largest banks had adequate capital to withstand a crisis, a necessary hurdle for banks to pass to return money to shareholders. The central bank had restricted shareholder payouts during the pandemic, asking banks to preserve capital in case the recession led to a wave of soured loans.

MS, GS, BAC, JPM, WFC all increasing dividends by a substantial amount after getting the green light. A very bullish move.

Banks are probably the best all around value play that's left out there. Oil sector can get another push higher, but it's very cyclical, prone to big swings, and will sell off well before the numbers start to show peaking inventories. Sold my only oil sector stock two weeks which I picked up when oil was some $30 cheaper. The fed turmoil hit my stop and even though there is probably more upside, oil stocks are always just a swing trade for me and this just happened to be a wonderful snap back rally.

Bank stocks though, those are long term holds, especially when dividends are rising.

[James48843]

MS, GS, BAC, JPM, WFC all increasing dividends by a substantial amount after getting the green light. A very bullish move.

Banks are probably the best all around value play that's left out there. Oil sector can get another push higher, but it's very cyclical, prone to big swings, and will sell off well before the numbers start to show peaking inventories. Sold my only oil sector stock two weeks which I picked up when oil was some $30 cheaper. The fed turmoil hit my stop and even though there is probably more upside, oil stocks are always just a swing trade for me and this just happened to be a wonderful snap back rally.

Bank stocks though, those are long term holds, especially when dividends are rising.

I just looked at MS and GS.

Both are at their highest point since 2008, and before that, since the 2000 bubble crash.

Am I seeing it wrong? Banks seem in the same territory they’ve been in during recent crashes.



Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=74921)

[tsptalk]

Here's the monthly chart of GS and MS going back to 1999...

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/070821a.gif

[Bullitt]

On a valuation basis, financials are the "cheapest" sector out there and are still well below 2000 and 2008 valuations. See charts below.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/mktbriefsppesecind.pdf

Banks also passed their stress tests and have been allowed to begin buybacks and dividend increases as a result. Their balance sheets are in much better shape than 2008. The problem right now is rates aren't doing what the market expected them too. Rates are actually dropping again despite all this hyper inflation nonsense. Banks would be more profitable if rates were higher since low rates are somewhat of a headwind.

Financials also are underweight the S&P 500 relative to historical standards. (Currently, financials are around 11.27%, chart below only goes to Oct 2020. Side note: IT is either in a new paradigm or the danger zone.)

https://einvestingforbeginners.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sector-weight-3.png

As far as the technical analysis goes, I think it has some bearing on the short term, possibly intermediate term, but resistance lines from 12 or 21 years ago don't mean anything.

[Bullitt]

Big week for banks earnings and so far not looking too good. Actually, they are good, but it's another case of "how will the market react". In this case, the news has been solid, but they're selling off. Yields are the biggest drag right now. Low yields are detrimental to bank earnings going forward.

[tsptalk]

I'm surprised they didn't rally with those good earnings AND a pop higher in yields today. But yeah, so far its been a sell the news reaction.

[Bullitt]

The underperformance by banks is a bit concerning, but it seems every time these banks report blowout earnings the market just writes it off as a "one-off".

Overall breadth has been terrible the past two weeks and there's talk of this quarter being peak earnings. Seeing markets always look forward, it's looking more and more like a market correction is due.

[felinecrl]

"I'm surprised they didn't rally with those good earnings AND a pop higher in yields today. But yeah, so far its been a sell the news reaction."

It's an eerie feeling with the banks. It's seems like they're just staying on the porch out of pure caution.

[Bullitt]

They've definitely been hamstrung by having to hold extra reserves on their balance sheets. Unfortunately, they weren't able to do as much after being allowed to cut that money loose than many were hoping.

Lending standards for homes are very high right now so the pool is small for potential clients. Prices for new autos aren't really increasing like the used autos are, so those loans aren't growing so much. Plus, any large loans will erode with inflation - if it keeps going up. Sounds like many are focusing on the credit card space right now.

Energy and Financials are not loved sectors right now. This weeks action has made many of them cheaper.

[Bullitt]

Latest from Argus. Banks upgraded to overweight.


We continue to believe the Fed will place greater emphasis on its employment mandate than on managing inflation to the 2% target. Rising long-term interest rates and the steepening yield curve hold several implications for investors. We do expect interest rates to reverse course and head higher over coming months as the global economy recovers. We note that a wider spread between short-term and long-term bonds is beneficial for most of the Financial Services sector, which we recently moved to Over-Weight.

[Bullitt]

Breakout move after exhaustion gap down, now above 50DMA. Bullish implications for entire market.

51148

[Bullitt]

New all time high for XLF.

[Bullitt]

Another new all time high today on a breakout day.

52588

[Bullitt]

That breakout didn't hold. Looks like everyone got ahead of themselves with valuations as all banks have been getting hit the past week. Even the pros got it wrong. A slew of upgrades before earnings may have been premature because none of them factored in such poor trading profits in the recent quarter. Without reserve releases, many would not have been profitable this quarter.

Rate hikes should help the banks since any interest rates higher than zero give them better chances to profit in the lending department.

[tsptalk]

Wow, big difference between the Bank Index and those individual large financials (XLF).

The bad new for $bank is that the F-flags eventually break down too.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2022/011822c.gif

[Bullitt]

Banks not looking too good here. H&S on weekly, Double Top (not shown) in daily, but still waiting on a break in both, which target lower prices.

53521

[Epic]

Was down today over 11% at one point..... Dam :eek:

54039

[tsptalk]

I thought higher yields were supposed to lift bank stocks? [emoji848]

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Bullitt]

All the financials are reporting losses on their trading revenue, but I'm not sure what people expect - the whole buy anything on RobinHood with stimulus money you didn't need has been over for months now. Sometimes it's not so important how many accounts you pull in, but the quality of them. RH are not quality accounts and very likely most TD Ameritrade accounts are are on the smaller side too. Less $ to make with advisor fees as less accounts are even eligible. SCHW isn't going away though and will remain one of the big companies in the discount trading sector.

Relatively speaking, XLF is still holding up above that red line in the chart posted previously. BAC came in good today releasing more of their reserves than expected after the Russia situation which is a big thing weighing on banks right now.