With 11 Trading Days left in '09...

[tsptalk]

With 11 trading days left in 2009, it is looking like we are going to see some extraordinary returns for the year, and it is going to be a race to the finish for the top spots.

We have a few members like wwwtractor, SawBonez. Medic72 and gonefishin who have amazing returns of 40% to 52%, but they did miss some or all of the massive early losses in January and February. That makes them ineligible for the annual returns prizes, but still, incredible returns indeed.

The highest eligible member returns as of now (11 days to go), that have been on the AutoTracker for all of 2009 are TSPinWV and Skooby, the only two currently beating all of the TSP funds. Then BigJohn, who has been in the S-fund all year and is up 31.89%, followed by Barney, tatberto, clester and tom1tom1, who are all up over 31%.

There are over 40 members who are up 25% or more, and another 17 up over 20%.

It will be a good race to the end. Good luck!

[XL-entLady]

An actual Thrift Savings Account post on TSPTalk?? With no politics in the post at all? What were you thinking?!! :nuts:

;)

Lady

[grandma]

An actual Thrift Savings Account post on TSPTalk?? With no politics in the post at all? What were you thinking?!! :nuts:

;)

Lady

some of it leaked out ?7652

[tsptalk]

An actual Thrift Savings Account post on TSPTalk?? With no politics in the post at all? What were you thinking?!!
It's becoming a zoo... Bulls, bears, donkeys and elephants.

[Boghie]

Regretfully,

I might catch some of the leaders in this market because of a conservative allocation...

Where is the Santa Clause Rally:notrust:

My money is on Pill:)

[tsptalk]

Pill has not made an IFT all year so being fully invested, I don't think he will have a chance to catch the leaders who are also mostly fully invested.

Depending on the S and I funds there could be some shifts at the top.

I hope it doesn't happen, but if the market tanks in the next two weeks, vectorman (currently 12th, excluding the S-fund) could make a move on the leaders, as he is the highest ranked member who is 100% in the G fund right now.

Care to pick the quinella? :)

[Birchtree]

Every time I look over my shoulder who do I see gaining momentum - tsptalk is on the move up the tracker. I'll be happy to close out the year at #30.

[Boghie]

Tom,

That could be fun.

I think the market is consolidating. I don’t think we are in a dump. I also don’t think anyone can figure out which of the four at risk funds are the next boomlette. And, any market up bump will excite the ‘G Funders’ in the lead 20% group to go All In – potentially after the last growth and just in time for another small correction. The only fund that seems in trouble is the I Fund – but, is it? Thus, my feeling is that it will be an asset allocator that will jump to the lead. So, here goes:

My Quinnella:

1 – TataBerto
2 – Pill

Or:

1 – Pill
2 – TataBerto

If there is a relatively flat Santa Claus Rally than I will move up – but, not make it.

Oh well, happy anyway…

Actually, very happy…

Merry Christmas…

[tsptalk]

Every time I look over my shoulder who do I see gaining momentum - tsptalk is on the move up the tracker. I'll be happy to close out the year at #30.
My in and out trades over the last few months have helped me move up, and this month the S-fund has finally pushed me past the C-fund return (which is always a goal). I have my eye on you too B. Got to beat the buy and holders when I can. :)

If we can get a strong week next week, I may take my profits and ride out the last week of 2009 in the G or F fund, at the risk of falling below the C-fund again. But I also like the idea of being in small caps on January 4th. hmmm...

We'll have to see how it plays out. I love trading. :D

[tsptalk]

My Quinnella:

1 – TataBerto
2 – Pill

Or:

1 – Pill
2 – TataBerto

That's a long shot. There's TSP Talk sweatshirt in it for if you are right. :D

Merry Christmas!

[Minnow]

This year is almost up and the autotracker contest is heating up. But, soon, Tom, you're going to have to give your rankings for next year... who is in the AP top ten?... who is in the Coaches Top 10?... who had the best recruiting? who dazzled you with technical analysis? who drew the best fibonacci lines?

.... oh wait, the tracker participants settle the argument on the field?

I guess I'll go and make a college football post... ;)

[tsptalk]

you're going to have to give your rankings for next year... who is in the AP top ten?... who is in the Coaches Top 10?... who had the best recruiting? who dazzled you with technical analysis? who drew the best fibonacci lines?

I'm going to give the nod to these folks for 2010 as they were the active timers who kept their returns up in 2009, and they don't seem to be afraid to move their money around.

clester
tataberto
tom1tom1
Sonic
ripper
Boghie

I hate to just name a few because there are so many savvy folks here, but I also look for good years from show-me, intrepid_investor, bullitt, coolhand, james, Uptrend, aviator_guy, burrocrat - just to name a few - and I look for big comeback years from nsurf9, JTH, and nnuut.

I'm picking folks who are not afraid to change gears quickly, and 2010 may be one of those years where that ability is needed.

[Boghie]

Tom,

It would be kinda boring to pick the current leader or a 'G Fund' Trustfunder :p to win this thing.

The sweatshirt would be a nice addition to the repertoire. But, you're probably right. I think I will have to buy one - do you sell them? I wouldn't feel bad about that.

Don't want to buy the prize items though.

Those are earned. ;)

[tsptalk]

No, I haven't been offering the shirts for sale, although I have sold quite a few mugs since I started selling them, but I may stop that as I hate running to the post office all the time. :) I don't mind going once a month to ship out the monthly prizes.

[Pill]

Cudos Tom for all your hard work and making this happen!

[tsptalk]

Hi Pill. Were your ears buring. :D

[tsptalk]

Every time I look over my shoulder who do I see gaining momentum - tsptalk is on the move up the tracker. I'll be happy to close out the year at #30.
You don't have to look over your shoulder anymore. I'm right in front of you now - by a miniscule 0.01%. :) The I-fund is holding you up.

[Boghie]

Tom,

I don't belong in a list of next year's picks. I have generated my annual IRR for the past five years - and, let's just say I would probably be fired:nuts: Quicken is a very humiliating tool when one learns how to use it.

However,

CoolHand
Bullitt
Tataberto
CallMe_CO
VectorMan
and, ATCJeff
point to folks who can win within allocations by moving assets around at the margins. I think 2010 will look like 2006/7 in many ways. It will be a year of aggressive trading - but, I don't think one of full swing trades. The IFT limitation in this environment will definitely be a handicap.

Your TSPTalk trading style (past records) is probably another winner as well.

If my guess on next year proves wrong than I am not too bull headed to follow the swingers (Steady, Clester, TomTom, Intrepid_Investor). I'll play 2010 like a high school girl. I won't make up my mind:cheesy:

There are so many I watch...

Too many to list...

[tsptalk]

Your TSPTalk trading style (past records) is probably another winner as well.
Thanks for the kind words Boghie, although probably not deserving. This was a good year for me considering the bad start I had. I was like #160 on the autotracker back in June and now I'm #38. But before '09 I had to take some very hard lessons. I found out that knowing what you are doing, and actually executing your plan, are two different things.

As Murphy's Law would have it, I struggled badly after starting TSP Talk. I started being overly concerned with people following me and always thinking of those reading my commentary who might be following me, so I starting acting much too conservatively. I had done well in the past (pre-TSP Talk) being aggressive so, in 2008, when I decided to stop posting my allocation in my commentary, I started to get more aggressive - not a good time to do that. The market beat the crap out of me in the fall of '08 trying buy the dips. :embarrest:

Assuming the market doesn't go into a free fall in 2010, I will try to do more what I have been doing in the 2nd half of 2009. That is, use my IFT's, get aggressive when I see an opening, and get out quickly when that opening starts to close. It's an ongoing process of understanding yourself more than anything, being flexible, being quick to realize when you are wrong, and making the proper adjustments.

[burrocrat]

I'm going to give the nod to these folks for 2010 as they were the active timers who kept their returns up in 2009, and they don't seem to be afraid to move their money around.

clester
tataberto
tom1tom1
Sonic
ripper
Boghie

I hate to just name a few because there are so many savvy folks here, but I also look for good years from show-me, intrepid_investor, bullitt, coolhand, james, Uptrend, aviator_guy, burrocrat - just to name a few - and I look for big comeback years from nsurf9, JTH, and nnuut.

I'm picking folks who are not afraid to change gears quickly, and 2010 may be one of those years where that ability is needed.

only a partial year member this time, looking forward to next year, only in the 80's but such grand company, i'm a little nervous already.

i don't like my chances much next year as so far i'm always in at least three funds, i just don't see things that clearly, can't hit a home run if you're not swinging for the fence. no fancy technicals, mainly a sentiment trader, if you've seen my post's there is no doubt about that, but all yous analysis helps form my sentiment, lot of smart folks here.

changing gears quickly is not necessarily a sign of a good driver, sometimes it's just bad shifting, but i'll grind it till i find it or hit the wall.

it's a lot easier the farther from retirement one is, no major amounts here, and half of it is free money. glad i'm in for the ride.

[tsptalk]

With 5 trading days to go, our 2009 leader (full year) is one of the MIA's. TSPinWV will be deleted from the tracker for 2010, and is not eligible for a 2009 prize since he has not logged onto the message board since April, and hasn't logged into the AutoTracker since last January.

I wonder if he did as well in their TSP account as he did in the AutoTracker (+37%)? :)

[BigJohn]

Does that put me on the hotseat?

[tsptalk]

Yes, as of yesterday's closing prices, but it may get tighter tonight. :)

Good luck!

[tsptalk]

Uh oh, I funders. I will pass that big 100% I-fund group on the tracker if the I-fund is down 0.65% or more today. The EFA is now down 0.83% as I write this, but I wonder if it can side-step this late sell-off by avoiding the the -FV.

Thanks Ebb, for getting me out today. :)

[tsptalk]

rats! The I-funders dodged a bullet Friday - EFA was down 0.70%. The I-fund was down 0.08%. They beat me.

[Boghie]

rats! The I-funders dodged a bullet Friday - EFA was down 0.70%. The I-fund was down 0.08%. They beat me.

Tom, had the same thought.

The Nazgul Nine followed the I Fund of Sauron to the end. And, beat up on us hobbits and dwarves and elves and humans along the way. The one ring has been laid upon the tractor. All powerful. Awaiting his finger.

Yield and kneel:p