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Spaf
12-12-2004, 07:39 PM
I was looking around at some of the talk about the market. Indications were that it was treading water, and waiting.
Looked like a lot of calls are on schedule for the economic calendar next week.
Everyone expects the Fed to add a quarter percentage point.
Annual consumer price inflation was in the 3.0 range.

Attached is a 1 year chart of the S&P 500 (with a 50 day moving average) to sort of show what we have gone through this year. The ending bull market, the bear period, and the return of the bull. And where we are at now. Thus the big picture.

I'll be in stocks, C and S funds while the market continues, no I fund for me.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

vectorman
12-12-2004, 08:20 PM
Some more interesting reading for this weeks outlook:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041212/wall_street_week_ahead_4.html

Spaf
12-13-2004, 01:17 PM
vectorman wrote:
Some more interesting reading for this weeks outlook:

Positive outlook!
Looks like that is what the market got Monday morning. November retail sales were good, along with some deals. Oil inventories appeared to be ok. I think it's about time to check and tweak allocation distribution. The I fund appears to me to be a bit risky, performance seems to be in the C and S funds, Ill tweak to 50/50 today.

vectorman
12-13-2004, 01:41 PM
I'm hoping the I fund has just alittle more to give back, then I'm with you brother. Spaf have you ever seen this site? http://www.tspmoney.com/

vectorman
12-13-2004, 02:02 PM
Here comes Santa Claus, here comes Santa Claus.......

Rod
12-13-2004, 02:09 PM
vectorman wrote:
Here comes Santa Claus, here comes Santa Claus.......
HO HO HO:dude:

Spaf
12-13-2004, 02:27 PM
Vectorman......Rod...... Be careful that you don't fall off that sled!

Tspmoney is ok as a data backup, but not near the drama!

Mike
12-13-2004, 02:28 PM
EAFE is up over 1.5%. :shock:

If that can somehow hold through to the close, we're looking at a 20 cent one-day gain... and that would put the fund just one minor gain away from being profitable for me at *both* entry points. :^

Rod
12-13-2004, 02:40 PM
Spaf wrote:
Vectorman......Rod...... Be careful that you don't fall off that sled!

Yeah... I'm just enjoying this "dash" through the "snow".;)

I do realize the "snow" may stop falling, then begin to melt. But, I'm enjoying my moment.:^

Spaf
12-13-2004, 02:57 PM
Mike...I'm glad you got the crossing shot. Thats my name for the I-fund. When you hit it it really looks good.
Rod...Glad you are playing in the snow! One of the market guys this morning was saying "pace of gains may slow". I feel that this market kind of goes in spurts, stops and sort of firms up for the next dash. Whatever, just so long as the snow keeps adding up!

Rgds :) Spaf

Rod
12-13-2004, 03:00 PM
That's what it's all about, Buddy. Patting one another on the back when we're having good days.

Thanx!:)

learning
12-13-2004, 03:30 PM
Buy high sell low that me:(

I got nervous and bailed last thursday. Now, I'm geared to get back in. I went in some today and will go for broke Tuesday.

All I want for Christmas Santa, (Dr. Greenspan) is some nice friendly words:D. I should not have tried to trade on the day but for the month. Ohhh, Well. Live and learn this is my first time out like this and I have learned a lot.

Spaf
12-13-2004, 03:57 PM
Learning.....don't slap yourself. We all get nervous. A missed approach is ok, just circle around and try again!

ou81200
12-13-2004, 06:15 PM
Learning---

Don't feel bad. At least you did'nt lose money. I had a brain flatulence episode when I was 50% I fund last Friday. I lost about two weeks of gains on that move.

Fact is, you have to look at the long haul. LOL. It usually looks better :).

learning
12-13-2004, 06:28 PM
Thanks ;)

VictorPR
12-13-2004, 07:07 PM
Learning, don't feel too bad, I have learned , thanks to this website, that when you lose ground stand there and take the hits because if you try to get out to try to stop the bleeding you will loose more since you will try to time the market and that is almost imposibble. I have lost alot of money and even lost more trying to stop the bleeding and by watching and following TOM's moves I have recop all my looses and actually made lots of money. Stand in your ground and if you if you want go to the daily figures and you'll see that all the funds are higher than they were 6 months ago. So, I do not worry when I lose money but I worry if I am not in the game (stocks). Good luck and keep playing the game and you will be okay. One thing that we have is time on our side. Stay invested and you will make it up and made more money. :D

smine
12-13-2004, 07:33 PM
OU8, that's what I did. Would you believe I had 65% I on Friday and was getting so paranoid I went with 50C 50S. The loss was everything I had gained since Dec. 4th. I have been heart sick all day watching the I soar! Glad for my colleagues but heart sick at stupidity. At least today's gains made up half my losses.

12-13-2004, 07:46 PM
learning wrote:
Buy high sell low that me:(

I got nervous and bailed last thursday. Now, I'm geared to get back in. I went in some today and will go for broke Tuesday.

All I want for Christmas Santa, (Dr. Greenspan) is some nice friendly words:D. I should not have tried to trade on the day but for the month. Ohhh, Well. Live and learn this is my first time out like this and I have learned a lot.



Hay Learning gest what?.... been there done that too at one time or another.....:)

Hang in there and good luck.

Barb

ou81200
12-13-2004, 07:48 PM
Smine---

Pay it no mind.We back at the line of scrimmage, but we have the ball. I thought we would have a serious retracement in the C&S fund, but I saw only one realbad day last week. It makes me nervous about the rest of the month. However, I'm gonna follow Tom's lead and be fully invested after tomorrow.

tsptalk
12-13-2004, 07:51 PM
Mike wrote:
If that can somehow hold through to the close, we're looking at a 20 cent one-day gain...
Close. Now I am wondering if I pulled out of the I fund at good time, orbad? Tomorrow I will be completely out. Let's see if the dollar is really going to rally or just continue with the downtrend and keep paying off the I fund.

I'd actually like to see the markets give back some gains Tuesday to help give better entry points to anyone still looking to get in.

Spaf
12-13-2004, 08:05 PM
Tom.... Dec 3rd (Monday) the I fund topped at 15.09 and then slid down for 5 days. It was a sell all week. I transferred out. Too risky, when we have the other funds that are good performers. However, I have been getting some cautions on the S fund? Oh well!
Rgds :) Spaf

Show-me
12-13-2004, 08:09 PM
Learning,

Shake it off, get back in the game! I'm feeling a little sorry (actually I'm self-medicating) for myself but what the hay I'm like you........................... LEARNING. Better to learn now than never at all. I'll get a better handle on investing thru the next year, then look out the next 20. Wooooohoooooo! No more setting in the G Fund here. Gota cut back on the little blue pills.:DJust kidd'n.

Spaf
12-13-2004, 09:38 PM
Successful Trading

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/trading_secrets.htm

Well, we can read to!

Rgds :) Spaf

vectorman
12-13-2004, 10:13 PM
Spaf wrote:
Successful Trading

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/trading_secrets.htm

Well, we can read to!

Rgds :) Spaf
This is why I enjoy this site. There are individuals like Spaf and others who are willing to pass on helpful information to help others understand the market better. Thanks Spaf.

Show-me
12-13-2004, 10:33 PM
Excellent explanation. Simple and to the point. Easy to read. Pictures too. Thanks again Spaf. :u

Spaf
12-13-2004, 11:33 PM
Lemming
Synaptomys spp.

Lemmings are small mouse-like animals that live in the tundra.

Mike
12-13-2004, 11:39 PM
Tom, I think last week's dollar rally was a weak bounce off the bottom - and was healthy, because it triggered an I fund pullback. Without foreign government intervention however, the dollar will continue to slide, and the quarter-point interest rate hike will do nothing to stop that. In other words, I think the I fund remains a solid play - though riskier due to currency considerations, obviously. The time to buy was last week - that's the best entry point you will likely get for a long time on the I fund (until it starts trending downward as we exit this bullish phase). My mistake was I pulled the trigger on adding shares a couple days too soon - at $14.93 instead of the bottom ($14.69) or near-bottom of $14.80-something. I still expect a healthy profit though - I believe the I fund will shoot past $15 per share again, unless some governments decide quickly that they need to prop up the dollar. I don't believe that action will happen 'til we see the euro push close to the $1.40 range - which may not happen until January or even February.

Spaf
12-13-2004, 11:53 PM
Hey Mike!Good post :^. Hey Tom what do U think? Us Lemmings are awaiting?

Rod
12-14-2004, 02:30 AM
It happens to us all, Learning! I just happen to be on this side for a change, and will be on the other side plenty more times!;)

Sometimes you just catch a good wave, and are able to ride that baby all the way in.

Your wave WILL come, Brother, and when it does we all will be rejoicing with you... even if we lost big ourselves.

Because that's what it's all about- rejoicing with each other & encouraging one another.

God Bless:^

Show-me
12-14-2004, 07:03 AM
Spaf wrote:
Hey Mike!Good post :^. Hey Tom what do U think? Us Lemmings are awaiting?This Lemmings going for iiiiiiittttt.:l

tsptalk
12-14-2004, 09:10 AM
Spaf wrote:
Hey Mike!Good post :^. Hey Tom what do U think? Us Lemmings are awaiting?
Don't make me explain it again. ;) I'm taking the easy route with C and S until I see what the dollar is doing. Mike could be be right on. But right or wrong, I just don't want to take a chance in December. I'd like another 3% before EOY.

Mike
12-14-2004, 09:39 AM
I'm an aggressive youngin'. Steer clear. :D

12-14-2004, 11:24 AM
Meanwhile, inflation appears to be well contained following a November Capacity Utilization reading of 77.6% (consensus 77.8%) and an Industrial Production figure of +0.3% that showed little change compared to expectations of +0.2%... However, with the Fed expected to raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time, to 2.25%, the market has remained cautious in the early going as it awaits a policy statement that is widely anticipated to restate ongoing rate hikes at a "measured" pace... As higher rates are typically supportive of a stronger dollar, the benchmark currency has shown relative strength despite the growing trade deficit...

It's my understanding that a weaker dollar is better for the deficit.....maybe no hike today? hmmmmmmmmmmmm

Spaf
12-14-2004, 11:33 PM
mlk_man wrote:
It's my understanding that a weaker dollar is better for the deficit

M_M....Don't know exactly, except to say everything here is "on sale" for the europeans.

Based on the current market and the latest advances (for stocks) the S fund is the best performer, followed by the C fund. The I (international) fund seems to have stumbled for December, so far.

In the current Bull market the best place to be right now would be theG,C, and S funds. The F fund (bonds), generally fall as interest rates rise. The I fund has a two fold risk of market+currency. The ratio of fund distribution depends on various factors, but in stocks 40%+ is aggressive, in my estimation (and needs close attention).

Rgds :) Spaf

Mike
12-14-2004, 11:36 PM
The I fund is the only stock fund to have a truly noticeable pull-back. The others had a one-day stumble, then they went back up, whereas the I dropped for 5 days before bouncing back. To me, this says the I fund remains bullish. I'll be holding onto my 35% allocation there for at least a few more days, as I think the dollar isn't going anywhere.

Spaf
12-14-2004, 11:51 PM
Mike wrote:
I'll be holding onto my 35% allocation there for at least a few more days, as I think the dollar isn't going anywhere.
Best to ya! I assume you have a stop inplace (for insurance)!

learning
12-15-2004, 08:44 AM
Hey all, (Spaf) by your post I am aggresive again. I'm over the 45% mark in the market. :D No more sleep for me:l. If things go bad I will try not to do the Run Away Run Away again. That hurts:P

On serious note. What are the ideas out there about the Fed Releasing the minutes of the last meeting early? Jan 4th. This could hurt or help us. Any ideas whatyou are going to do as thedate approaches? I kind of like the thought of the early release. Just that it is another date to worry about.I suspect that there are some negative comments about the economyout there. I hope they edit a little. Of course I still have some finacial cowardice in me.:' I have no fear offighting just something where I am really out classed, (the market):oo LOL

Last. Those DOING GOOD without posting your returns, (amount of money) just the percentage of returns if youdont mind? Maybe give us an idea of how well your doing. I'm straight up. I believe I am ahead of the G, the F. I do not know about the rest. I doubt I am even near the stocks. I need to learn and figure the percentages so I can track better.

Happy for all that did great.:!

Mike
12-15-2004, 09:05 AM
Take a look at the long-term dollar v euro chart - go back a year, go back two years, go back 3 months - all of them point down.

Euro is up over 0.8% against the dollar thus far. If that holds, it basically erases all of last week's rally. :shock:

Learning - as of Monday's closing prices, I was up 8.2% on the year - and I missed out on two of the strongest-performing weeks in the market this year.

learning
12-15-2004, 09:40 AM
Mike wrote:
Take a look at the long-term dollar v euro chart - go back a year, go back two years, go back 3 months - all of them point down.

Euro is up over 0.8% against the dollar thus far. If that holds, it basically erases all of last week's rally. :shock:

Learning - as of Monday's closing prices, I was up 8.2% on the year - and I missed out on two of the strongest-performing weeks in the market this year.


Hey If your in the I fund sounds like good news at CNN.com, currency section. They say something about the dollar taking a tumble today. I will not go into the fund as with my luck it will change around just as I get in. The market is smarter then I.



8.2% and the year is not even up yet good job:^ Thanks. helps me get an idea where I am at and how to change game plans.

Mike
12-15-2004, 09:50 AM
EAFE just hit the high for the day - up 0.7%. :shock:

For anyone that cares, the S fund is now slightly ahead of the I fund on the year, thanks to last week's little snap-back (15.6% v 15.5%). C continues lagging way behind, at around 10% for the year.

I lag behind all three (that takes pure genius on my part, doesn't it). :P

Learning, I don't know if it's that good a job (missed a nice chunk of this bull run), but thanks. :^

My yearly target is 10%. With my witholding rate being so high, I can live comfortably on those returns if I get them every year. :D

Spaf
12-15-2004, 12:25 PM
Learning.......I will be staying with the stocks until the Bull movement ends, when ever that may be. Currently my allocations are 50/50 C & S.

In the mean time, I'm monitoring the funds to ensure that I have the best performers. And if possible diversify between the two best.

Rgds :) Spaf

pyriel
12-15-2004, 10:07 PM
Tom,

Why is Milk_Man banned from this site?

Mike
12-15-2004, 10:10 PM
Spaf, right now, I'm liking my I fund play. :D

tsptalk
12-15-2004, 10:32 PM
pyriel wrote:
Tom,

Why is Milk_Man banned from this site?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/278-9.html

Spaf
12-15-2004, 11:57 PM
Mike wrote:
Spaf, right now, I'm liking my I fund play. :D

It was going so strong , could of been a speed bump! I know, an Oklahoma pot hole!Yah thats what it was! It hit a pot hole!

Things were positive in the market talk, then I started hearing this grumbling about oil? Oh no, not again! The market is undervalued. The oil was just suppose to be a spike because of speculative buying.

Tom figured that the market (S&P) had a 13% rise in the last 4 months.

Ending today for the month the TSP funds have posted gains/losses as follows:
G= +.02 F= +.13 C= +.16 S= +.21 I= +.05

Vacation is close at hand, and I will probably need to park my funds is a more conservative allocation while I'm here and there. I agree with Tom that during this bull market I want to be in stocks, at least 50%. So, for my vacation traveling where there is no puter to change allocations, I'll probably go 20-20-20-30-10 in the next few days. Capital preservation so to speak!

Rgds :) Spaf

cowboy
12-16-2004, 01:55 PM
Mmmmm! Now that I'm a 100% G: I'm wondering when to jump back into this thing. How strong of a correction will we have here. What do you think guys. Either this market is going down all in one day or maybe two I guess only time will tell. I am past the dead line to get in today but like the chances on tomorrow. I'm thinking the C fund has some catching up to do but may just spread out in C,S,I. I'm kind of like Tom I am trying to reserve funds but also increase my % on my investment for the year.

Spaf
12-16-2004, 02:17 PM
cowboy wrote:
Mmmmm! Now that I'm a 100% G: I'm wondering when to jump back into this thing. How strong of a correction will we have here.
Corrections or any firming up, whatever, have not indicated any patterns that I could see on the charts. The last correction was considered to be 15-20 points (S&P) but actually made 13 points. In the latter leg any correction or firming up has been within the week.
Rgds

Spaf
12-16-2004, 03:59 PM
That was a weird close today. DJIA up 14......NASD down 16 :* Spaf

learning
12-17-2004, 04:53 PM
Tom sorry to hear that you were hit at work for this sight.:X I have used this sight to get to their sight. If they want us they find a way. :x

On another note. We have had the pull back that you wanted. LOL This time I shall try not to run away, run away and pay the price. I'm worried, thats good right:? The I fund should have done good today. Dollar down. No insult to those of you in the I fund, I just wanted it to stay up a little longer. Happy for you!And that is the truth!:u . When I leave the C and S fund some time next year, I hope to go to the I fund.

Take care all.

Spaf
12-17-2004, 09:15 PM
Learning.......Where have you been hiding!

Three good days to start the week off and then two days full of chugholes. Guess I will have to start over next week.

Rgds Spaf http://www.smileys.ws/sm/xmas/00000038.gif

Mike
12-17-2004, 09:51 PM
When both S and I took the hit yesterday, I got a bit worried. So, I bailed to G today figuring the pullback was starting. Sure enough, all the foreign markets took a dive except for Japan and Australia it seems. Then ours followed suit (thankfully, the S went up slightly after dropping $0.10 yesterday).

I still managed to profit on my moves at least... did well on I, so-so on S, but was pretty much flat on C (3/4 gained $.05, 1/4 lost $0.13).

Spaf
12-17-2004, 10:59 PM
Mike wrote:
When both S and I took the hit yesterday, I got a bit worried.

So did I, but I'll let the daily fluctuations pass by for the primary movement of the market.

Didn't our mothers say "a watched pot nevers boils". Mike... maybe we need to take care of Christmas, and Santa will take care of the market ?

Rgds Spaf http://www.smileys.ws/sm/xmas/00000038.gif

Mike
12-18-2004, 12:16 AM
I'm being very proactive right now... if Monday is a sea of red, I'll probably use it as a buying opportunity. Knowing what I now know about the I fund though, I doubt I'll dabble much in there until it corrects (back to the $14.60 range).

learning
12-18-2004, 07:09 AM
Spaf wrote:
Learning.......Where have you been hiding!

Three good days to start the week off and then two days full of chugholes. Guess I will have to start over next week.

Rgds Spaf http://www.smileys.ws/sm/xmas/00000038.gif



I do not always have the ability to get on a computer. Then when I do it can be real late. So that is where I have been. So, some of my trades are late. This can hurt. I had some of the good days. I have faith though for next week. If I do not get on again 'till Christmas, Merry Christmas. To those serving in hostile countries, you are in a lot of peoples prayers. Thanks