Golden Cross

[JTH]

My Stockcharts.com service will be downgraded soon, hope you enjoy it while it last.

1980-2005

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[JTH]

2005-today

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[Birchtree]

Beautiful graphs - would you prefer to see a run similar to '91-'94 or '95-'99?

[fedgolfer]

wow... Thanks JTH. I always read about the golden cross -- usually briefly referred too. But, it is nice to see the historical perspective on it. The "false signals" were more than I thought:

-1984 looked hard to play because of those huge up days in July of '84... I wonder what the news was surrounding those events?
-fall of '88 looked easier to climb back into bull mode, psychologically
-fall of '90 also looked hard to play because of the huge up days in Jan of '91
-summer of '94 looked like you weren't punished too hard and could ease back into bull mode
-and fall of '98
-summer of '06

All in all though those crosses were pretty solid... even on the false signals it seems an invetsor wouldn't be whipsawed too severly if he had the strong bullish tilt as long as the price was above the 50 day moving average.

THANKS JTH. This really tells me the KISS method is a good way to go long term. We need to chronicle this, because i'm sure i'll forget it in the emotions of bear markets.

[GUCHI]

wonderful graphs JTH . they were easy to understand!! the future looks good to me. everytime we hit a bottom the S&P would come back stronger over time. I knew there was a reason why I tell my sons "time is on your side, use it" thanks again to all and MB. ready for some fried turkey !!! Happy Turkey Day !!!

[FAB1]

what are the red and green lines?
charts are fantastic, btw :D

[Birchtree]

Green lines=50 day moving average.
Red lines=200 day moving average. The golden cross is when the green crosses the red on the upside.

[FAB1]

I see - looks like its good to signal big bull markets are near at times.

Going by this we are in safe territory at the moment.

And the C is going right up to the break even point now
(wish the I fund would follow) :cool:

[Birchtree]

Look at the years 1995 through 1999 - that is what is in our future according to Birchtree.

[WorkFE]

I like the BT future.:cool:

[JTH]

Probably my favorite female technical trader, when she speaks I listen...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1535214662&play=1

[JTH]

As of now, S&P 500's 50SMA is .01 above the 200SMA

[Frixxxx]

Probably my favorite female technical trader, when she speaks I listen...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1535214662&play=1
She's cute, you have to listen!:cool:

[crws]

you dog!:laugh:
I agree:D

She's cute, you have to listen!:cool:

[James48843]

Golden cross- crossed now?

That's some ugly stuff today.

It's going down.

[nnuut]

Looks like the last time this happened was in January of 2008, not good!
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e50,e200&a=&c=

[Bullitt]

Yep, any day now Carl will be going to LT sells on his models as the 50/200 EMA is hanging by a string.

[Birchtree]

I'm not taking it all that seriously - it's a head fake and the 50 day will rebound. Now am I in denial?

[crws]

-STB
Snort

[JTH]

While the S&P 500 did close this week with a Bearish 50/200SMA Death Cross & a declining 200SMA, I wouldn't go out and scream "the sky is falling" just yet.

If you look through this thread you will see there have been many instance when the Death Cross gave us a fakeout. This is why I like to look at the broader markets as a whole. Looking at the charts below we can see the Transports, NASDAQ & S&P 600 small caps still have a golden cross.

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[alevin]

That's quite the gap in the Nasdaq, JTH. Any thoughts about that vs. the other indices?

[JTH]

That's quite the gap in the Nasdaq, JTH. Any thoughts about that vs. the other indices?


I realize gaps almost always get filled, but the NASDAQ has always been the gappiest. of the major American Indexes. Still, a gap fill is still within the range of the descending price channel. I couldn't even gander a guess because anything could happen at this point, seeing how we are severely oversold on all timeframes.

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[Intrepid_Timer]

I think going back up to about 2250 on the Nasdaq would play perfectly into the head and shoulders theory. It would fill the gap and would take it back up to about the 200 day MA before it plunges again.

Thanks for the info JTH!!

[Intrepid_Timer]

Might go to about 2230 or so. Basically I"m looking for a 5-7% bounce here that might take about a week and half to two weeks to transpire. If you draw a line from the top of the head down through the top of the right shoulder and beyond, I think that's were we might be headed. Hoping anyway........;)

[Bullitt]

Looking at your past charts, it looks like there is usually a very short rally when the 50/200 crosses to the downside, yet not every 50/200 is a reliable downside signal. However, every bear market has resumed or started with the 50/200 cross to the downside, which is why this signal is so hard to disregard. The 50/200 is just one of many negative technicals right now and coupled with the H&S confirmed pattern is just a start.

[Intrepid_Timer]

Might go to about 2230 or so. Basically I"m looking for a 5-7% bounce here that might take about a week and half to two weeks to transpire. If you draw a line from the top of the head down through the top of the right shoulder and beyond, I think that's were we might be headed. Hoping anyway........;)

Well, we made it to that 2230 area. Took almost a week and a half.........;)

Let's see if we pull back now..................

[JTH]

Well, we made it to that 2230 area. Took almost a week and a half.........;)

Let's see if we pull back now..................

I do tip my hat to you, you've been riding this broke-back market like no other can, and your timing has been impeccable.

IMHO with a potential H&S here, the risk/reward ratio is off the charts. This is the last place I'd want to buy this market.

[JTH]

Anyone who knows me knows when it comes to the American markets, I give the top 4 the most weight. The Transports, NASDAQ, S&P 500, and S&P 600 are what I call the top 4.

BEAR MARKET WARNING! We now have 3 of 4 giving us a bearish 50/200SMA DEATH CROSS. You long-termers may want to take notice... For the S&P 500 I have golden cross charts posted in this thread, going back to 1984.

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[amoeba]

phooey!!!! Hindenburg Omen and Death Cross = ???

I came into the office to make an IFT; now I dunno in which direction...
now I'm thinking of bailing/locking in last week's losses to avoid more (a mere 0.7% for me).

[JTH]

phooey!!!! Hindenburg Omen and Death Cross = ???

I came into the office to make an IFT; now I dunno in which direction...
now I'm thinking of bailing/locking in last week's losses to avoid more (a mere 0.7% for me).

Well these are Daily charts, so it was the small caps that went into the red last week, while the other two have been there since early-mid July.

[crws]

phooey!!!! Hindenburg Omen and Death Cross = ???

I came into the office to make an IFT; now I dunno in which direction...
now I'm thinking of bailing/locking in last week's losses to avoid more (a mere 0.7% for me).

IOW, the Ominous Hindenburg Death Cross
pucker up and KYAG! :laugh:

[JTH]

It's official, the last of the top 4, the transports has given us a bearish death cross...

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[Steel_Magnolia]

Excellent information to have, J! G and F Funds keep looking better and better.

Maggie

[Gumby]

Jason,

What is your expected top in the S&P500 before it rolls over? Or will the FED ever prevent that from happening?

[JTH]

Jason,

What is your expected top in the S&P500 before it rolls over? Or will the FED ever prevent that from happening?

Lol I'm not saying it's going to roll over, at least not this month. :D 1084-1094 are the areas I'm watching, with 1100 being the peak. This is a volatile market and I'll retain this opinion as long as we stay above 1040.

Never miss an opportunity to post a chart...
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[JTH]

I haven't tracked this system since my PC crashed, but at the time is was doing exceptionally well. Anyways, the 15 Minute Golden Cross system has triggered a buy. For all you folks posting your damm bear stories over the weeks, I hope you choke on your vomit. :p

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[crws]

I haven't tracked this system since my PC crashed, but at the time is was doing exceptionally well. Anyways, the 15 Minute Golden Cross system has triggered a buy. For all you folks posting your damm bear stories over the weeks, I hope you choke on your vomit. :p

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hey! you resemble that remark! :laugh:

[JTH]

hey! you resemble that remark! :laugh:

Ha ha, just for the record I've only posted 1 bearish story in the past month, and it was on bonds...

[Warrenlm]

Now being at 1080, are you still seeing 1100 as the top? That must have changed if you're now seeing a buy signal?

[JTH]

Now being at 1080, are you still seeing 1100 as the top? That must have changed if you're now seeing a buy signal?

I haven't been using the moving averages to evaluate price, but it does serve as confirmation when you see all 4 indexes flipping over on this time frame. In particular, the transports led the others by 1 day, and this is typical of what I've seen with past "valid" buy signals.

Technically speaking I see 1095 as the top (if we continue a downtrend) but you'll notice we have a small double top on this 2-hour chart right at 1100, so I have to take this into account when making an assessment. If I were on the sidelines right now, I'd advise others to wait for a clearly defined higher low at or above 1053 to materialize.

With 1084 being 4 points away and 1095 being 15 points away, this isn't a trade I'd want to jump in and make, after we just abosorbed 30 freakin-holly-cow points. But like these markets prove, I can't predict prices, only evaluate them and slim down the risk...

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[Birchtree]

Shouldn't lily padders to be safe hold out until SPX 1222? That certainly sounds reasonable.

[JTH]

I should also add that 30 points is significant, and enough to flip many short-intermediate trading systems over to a buy.

[Birchtree]

But just like Coolhand, they won't believe their own systems - how perfect a scenario.

[JTH]

The 15 minute turned bullish this week.
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The 30 minute went bullish on Friday
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The hourly remains bearish
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The Daily chart is bearish with all 4 in the red.
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[JTH]

For the Top 4 meaning TRAN, NASDAQ, SPX, & SML.

15 Minute: Bullish
30 Minute: Bullish
Hourly: Bullish

Daily: Bearish with only the Transports having a Golden Cross.

[JTH]

Good morning

Just thought I'd let you know the S-Fund is close to a bullish 50/200 Golden Cross(over.) This isn't as strong a cross as I'd like to see.
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[Devilduck]

What app is in your slides and is it available on www somewhere?

[KevinD]

What app is in your slides and is it available on www somewhere?

http://stockcharts.com/index.html

[Frixxxx]

Good morning

Just thought I'd let you know the S-Fund is close to a bullish 50/200 Golden Cross(over.) This isn't as strong a cross as I'd like to see.
But it's a cross! I'll take it!:D

Thanks for the chart Invisible JTH!

[tsptalk]

Good morning

Just thought I'd let you know the S-Fund is close to a bullish 50/200 Golden Cross(over.) This isn't as strong a cross as I'd like to see.

Thanks. I'm actually surprised to hear it has not happened already.

[Devilduck]

thank you for the link. Anyone else having problems with symbol input into other databases such as bloomberg for 'Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market Index'. Most apps don't even recognize "dwcpf" except yahoo it seems.

I looked at this link which spells out symbol and none of them worked. All other funds I can place and track in ipad using bloomberg ap or marketwatch etc but none have success replicating the "s" fund chart like yahoo. Any suggestions?


http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_US_Completion_Total_Stock_Market_Index_F act_Sheet.pdf

Thanks,

Dave

[JTH]

thank you for the link. Anyone else having problems with symbol input into other databases such as bloomberg for 'Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market Index'. Most apps don't even recognize "dwcpf" except yahoo it seems.

I looked at this link which spells out symbol and none of them worked. All other funds I can place and track in ipad using bloomberg ap or marketwatch etc but none have success replicating the "s" fund chart like yahoo. Any suggestions?


http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_US_Completion_Total_Stock_Market_Index_F act_Sheet.pdf

Thanks,

Dave

It's a tough symbol to find, most don't have the 4500, just the 5000

[JTH]

I should point out that a Golden Cross almost never gives you the ideal entry point. In general this is usually about 2-8 weeks prior to the crossover. In this case it's about a 6 week delay.

The same goes for the ideal exit on a Death Cross, only it's usually a much longer delay, like you should have exited 8-12 weeks earlier.

I still believe it's a good system and I've been able to prove it consistenly beats the markets over a long period of time, but I also believe you can do better than a golden cross system if you add some additional rules. The biggest lession to be learned is that it can protect you form a severe bear market, and after all without capital preservation you have nothing...

[Bullitt]

So in other words, the death cross/golden cross like all technical analysis, is a crap shoot. I'm guessing golden cross was dreamed up by a broker to make it sound 'safer' for his clients to buy, aka, pay him more commissions.

[JTH]

So in other words, the death cross/golden cross like all technical analysis, is a crap shoot. I'm guessing golden cross was dreamed up by a broker to make it sound 'safer' for his clients to buy, aka, pay him more commissions.

Bullitt!!! :D (good to see ya)

Lol well I wouldn't call it a crap shoot, but you sure have to be sure you have the right entry point before you dedicate yourself to a long-term system such as this. For me, I apply this system over multiple indexes because I believe it gives me a more precise picture of market conditions.

[Bullitt]

I know you're watching many indexes.

Before April's drop, we had death crosses in many foreign indexes before the US indexes followed suit. Not all markets go down at once as money moves from the general indexes to sectors or regions when a market ages.

[KevinD]

thank you for the link. Anyone else having problems with symbol input into other databases such as bloomberg for 'Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market Index'. Most apps don't even recognize "dwcpf" except yahoo it seems.

I looked at this link which spells out symbol and none of them worked. All other funds I can place and track in ipad using bloomberg ap or marketwatch etc but none have success replicating the "s" fund chart like yahoo. Any suggestions?


http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_US_Completion_Total_Stock_Market_Index_F act_Sheet.pdf

Thanks,

Dave

Try $EMW at stockcharts.com

[crws]

There was a 2 week lag from the NYT article showing the EU debt crisis and the US market reaction.
The Oil spill was fully active.
"irrational exuberance" comes to mind....
AGG is back on the uptrend, and looks no different than since April
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/a/agg?lang=en-US&region=US

[JTH]

I'm not big on the VIX, but I would like to point out we had another bearish crossover recently, the last time this happened stocks performed exceptionally well, as illustrated by the S&P 500 comparison chart posted below the VIX.

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[KevinD]

What about the time before that? :confused: :worried:


:D

[JTH]

What about the time before that? :confused: :worried:


:D

"I'm not big on the VIX"

[KevinD]

"I'm not big on the VIX" :nuts: :laugh:

[James48843]

Looks to me like another "Golden Cross" forming, this one on the S&P 500 chart. Fifty day and 200 day moving averages are crossing today.


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[Birchtree]

All I see is that wicked drop in June - when will it repeat?

[JTH]

Last week the small caps triggered a sell signal on the 15 minute charts. It doesn't really mean anything, unless we get some follow-through from one of the other charts, usually the Transports would be the second to trigger a sell signal.

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[alevin]

good post, JTH. so happens I was looking around for the SP-600 symbol today, hadn't looked long enough yet, you did the job for me, thanks!

[JTH]

15 minute cycle has triggered a sell with 3 of 4 in the red. You may notice this is the second sell on the small caps generated over the last 7 trading days.

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[JTH]

Back over to a buy on the 15 minute charts, with all of the top 4 closing with a Golden Cross. For the Hourly & Daily charts, all are currently in a Golden Cross condition.


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[JTH]

The Transports flipped over on the 15 minute chart however, the previous two times this happened, it was short-lived and the beginning of the next leg up.

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[tsptalk]

makes sense. I've noticed that when the 20-day EMA moves below the 50-day EMA, it is a good short-term oversold buy indicator in a bull market.

[JTH]

15 minute charts showing 3 of 4 in a sell condition with the small caps being the last holdout. This is the first sell signal on the NASDAQ since 5 October.


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[JTH]

Positive price action tomorrow could flip the 15 minute Golden Cross Top 4 to a buy. However, when using momentum based systems, it's always a good idea to look for other forms of confirmation, such as Fibonacci retracement levels.

On this last down wave, the Transports have been rejected twice just short of 4,880.
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The NASDAQ, S&P 500 & S&P 600 have closed with less than a 50% replacement.
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[JTH]

Death Cross on AGG's daily chart.

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[Birchtree]

And the bond market is 10 times larger than the equity market - the run has already started and could last several years. I'm buying all the stock I can get access to because they're only going to be more expensive tomorrow.

[Buffalo_Nickle]

And the bond market is 10 times larger than the equity market - the run has already started and could last several years. I'm buying all the stock I can get access to because they're only going to be more expensive tomorrow.

Will Rodgers used to say " The best time to buy stocks was last year ", he was a pretty slick OL' Cowpoke too.

[JTH]

Welcome to the first 50/200 Bearish Death Cross of 2011. The last Deathcross in 2010 turned out to be a buying opportunity, let's see how this one works out.

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[RealMoneyIssues]

And the bond market is 10 times larger than the equity market - the run has already started and could last several years. I'm buying all the stock I can get access to because they're only going to be more expensive tomorrow.
Wow, Old PermaBull entry...


Welcome to the first 50/200 Bearish Death Cross of 2011. The last Deathcross in 2010 turned out to be a buying opportunity, let's see how this one works out.
It looks like the one in 2008 wasn't... the data doesn't seem to be on stockcharts.com

[JTH]

Wow, Old PermaBull entry...


It looks like the one in 2008 wasn't... the data doesn't seem to be on stockcharts.com

If you did through this thread you'll see I've posted every cross going back to the 1980s

[RealMoneyIssues]

If you dig through this thread you'll see I've posted every cross going back to the 1980s
Yuppers, here it is... in all it's ugliness...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?7729-Golden-Cross&p=277482#post277482

[jpcavin]

Yuppers, here it is... in all it's ugliness...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?7729-Golden-Cross&p=277482#post277482

Ok, this thread is about Golden Cross but seems you guys are talking about the Death Cross. What's the deal?

[Happy_Trails]

Ok, this thread is about Golden Cross but seems you guys are talking about the Death Cross. What's the deal?

The death cross occurs when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200. There are many studies about it out there but the consensus seems to be that it is not very reliable. Price moving above or below the 200 day average is a more consistent indicator. Jason also indicated that the 500 day SMA is a good indicator as well.

[JTH]

Yuppers, here it is... in all it's ugliness...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?7729-Golden-Cross&p=277482#post277482

Actually the ones I was refering to aren't there anymore, I might have deleted them on accident. :(

[jpcavin]

The death cross occurs when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200. There are many studies about it out there but the consensus seems to be that it is not very reliable. Price moving above or below the 200 day average is a more consistent indicator. Jason also indicated that the 500 day SMA is a good indicator as well.

I know what a Death Cross is. Just trying to figure out if that was in fact what you guys were talking about since this thread is for Golden Cross. If someone saw Golden Cross, I wanted to know where...

[nnuut]

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp#axzz1Upu0kBch Death Cross


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp#axzz1Upu0kBch Golden Cross
Below, above!

[Happy_Trails]

I know what a Death Cross is. Just trying to figure out if that was in fact what you guys were talking about since this thread is for Golden Cross. If someone saw Golden Cross, I wanted to know where...

AGG, been a few months since the 50 crossed the 200.

[jpcavin]

Thanks Norm but I KNOW the difference. My point is that this thread is for a Golden Cross so I want to know who is sighting one 'cause I don't see one!

[nnuut]

Thanks Norm but I KNOW the difference. My point is that this thread is for a Golden Cross so I want to know who is sighting one 'cause I don't see one!
I posted that for the Newbies, it's hard enough to get a handle on what's being discussed. When the terms are reversed it just adds to the confusion.

[jpcavin]

Well, I'm glad everything is cleared. You all had me confused! :nuts:

[JTH]

Transports produce a Death Cross...

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[Mcqlives]

Transports produce a Death Cross...

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Wow...what a chart to post when this thread hasn't seen activity since August of last year! It is a verrrrry telling chart though!

[JTH]

Wow...what a chart to post when this thread hasn't seen activity since August of last year! It is a verrrrry telling chart though!

Lol, I created this thread just for the purpose of talking about the 50/200 crosses, I just haven't been on much this year so it hasn't been updated.

[Birchtree]

I don't believe it says much with volatility being active - the 200 is still trending up.

[JTH]

Another Death Cross...

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[JTH]

Gold puts in a Golden Cross, with QE3 in play, I'll be watching the metals and may take some positions.

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[Birchtree]

I had the good fortune of buying into three positions back in June.

[JTH]

Good morning

The Transports have put in a recent Golden cross, while the Apple's NASDAQ 100 has put in a Death Cross.

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[JTH]

Good evening

We have a Golden Cross on the dollar

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[k0nkuzh0n]

Looks like that death cross back in October was pretty near the bottom of that chart.

[JTH]

Looks like that death cross back in October was pretty near the bottom of that chart.

A little known fact, some of the best performing moving average cross overs are actually inverse.