tsptalk's Market Talk [Archive]

tsptalk

11-09-2009, 01:10 PM

KevinD

11-09-2009, 04:18 PM

Dang, I thought YOU knew the answers to all those questions. :blink:

JTH

11-09-2009, 05:11 PM

Another huge day for stocks.

Time to sell, or stay the course?

Will the S&P 500 make a new high, or just complete a right shoulder in an H&S pattern, and move down?

Are investors too bearish or too bullish?

Can the strong Nov/Dec seasonality keep the rally going?

Spent the day doing nothing at home except sitting on my bottom. Those CNBC folks are Bullish as was everyone they interviewed throughout the day. EVERYONE said we will close higher at the end of the year. Hedge fundies are boarding the "don't miss out" train and ripping out the brakes.

I'm already invested so I could care less. But I am watching the transports and small caps looking for my confirmation.

tsptalk

11-09-2009, 05:36 PM

Dang, I thought YOU knew the answers to all those questions. :blink:
Oh, I do have the answers. This is a quiz for you. I will mark your papers when you're done. No cheating. :D

KevinD

11-09-2009, 06:54 PM

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

tsptalk

11-13-2009, 10:21 AM

Looks like the old rising wedge is giving a little support again.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/111309a.gif

tsptalk

11-23-2009, 08:32 AM

Beware Monday morning gap openings. This one looks like it will be a big / tough one to fill, but Monday morning gaps can be traps.

Bullitt

11-23-2009, 08:48 AM

I'm going to make a prediction that no matter what happens this week- bullish or bearish- the headlines one week from now will say, "Low Volume on NYSE With Traders Away on Vacation."

tsptalk

11-23-2009, 10:03 AM

Bullitt

11-23-2009, 11:43 AM

Where are the traders this year?
Out of work.

Imploding markets have changed that. Almost 1,500 hedge funds went out of business last year, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc., a Chicago-based research outfit.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMIX3xXmjVHE

tsptalk

11-30-2009, 01:58 PM

I'm a little surprised we didn't get a bounce today (although the day's not over). I figured Friday's sell-off was a bit of an exaggeration because of the low volume trading, but no rebound today is a bit concerning.

Of course it is the last day of the month, and the days after Thanksgiving week can be weaker than normal, but still, the bulls were given a little buying opportunity and they don't seem to be intereted yet.

Boghie

11-30-2009, 02:24 PM

Looking back, volume was huge during the days leading up Thanksgiving week last year (except for Wed and Friday) nearly double what we are seeing right now, with volume hitting 5 to 7 billion on the S&P.

We're only seeing 3 to 4 billion lately. So, volume will be light on Wednesday and Friday for sure, but where are the traders this year?

Like Bullitt stated...
Out of work...

The TARP bailouts really did not help those who caused the problems. Those folks - and, regretfully, many others - were blown out of the financial field. Hopefully, some of the good ones are busy building new financial business ventures. We may see some creative destruction out of this mess.

TARP kept our basic financial structure afloat. It did nothing to support the failures. Where are the leadership of Bear Sterns, Merril Lynch, AIG, BofA, etc.. Actually, Kalefornea is looking for them. We need someone to market our crappy bonds...

tsptalk

12-02-2009, 02:52 PM

Transports look to be trying to close near the highs of the day. Small caps strong too. It's all good. That resistance on the S&P is giving it some trouble today, however.

JTH

12-02-2009, 03:15 PM

Transports look to be trying to close near the highs of the day. Small caps strong too. It's all good. That resistance on the S&P is giving it some trouble today, however.

I've noticed that, but the transports have yet to make a higher high, but when/if they do, then wachout! :)

mayday

12-03-2009, 01:22 PM

I've noticed that, but the transports have yet to make a higher high, but when/if they do, then wachout! :)

Transports will make a higher high before Christmas.
Only logical packages being sent everywhere.
The market will go up before the holiday.

tsptalk

12-03-2009, 03:04 PM

Suspicious late sell-off. Did someone get the word on the jobs report due out tomorrow? Hmmm.

JTH

12-03-2009, 03:35 PM

Suspicious late sell-off. Did someone get the word on the jobs report due out tomorrow? Hmmm.

Tom, I can't prove it, but I think you're right that's exactly what it is. There's something wrong when the market is afraid to jump in long ahead of the jobs report.

tsptalk

12-03-2009, 04:18 PM

It seems to happen almost every Thursday afternoon before a Friday jobs report - up or down.

JTH

12-03-2009, 04:40 PM

It seems to happen almost every Thursday afternoon before a Friday jobs report - up or down.

Problem is, if the Job report is better than expected, it will be expensive for us TSP'ers to buy in. :mad:

But if the news is bad perhaps I'll IFT in at "for sale" prices :)

Show-me

12-04-2009, 07:51 AM

Problem is, if the Job report is better than expected, it will be expensive for us TSP'ers to buy in. :mad:

But if the news is bad perhaps I'll IFT in at "for sale" prices :)

And, the jobs report is better than expected.

Bullitt

12-04-2009, 07:56 AM

Looks like that reaction was just the robot traders shaking out the weak hands.

JTH

12-04-2009, 09:32 AM

And, the jobs report is better than expected.

Peek-ah-boo

7446

tsptalk

12-04-2009, 09:39 AM

Looks like that reaction was just the robot traders shaking out the weak hands.
We should have known. :rolleyes:

Luckily TSP'ers couldn't react to the late sell-off on Thursday.

Bullitt

12-04-2009, 09:45 AM

Yeah really. I'm glad it didn't happen before the deadline because I'm rooting for the small guy in this game.

Shoot. Look at that POS stock Citigroup. It can bounce between 4.10-4.11 10 times a second and I'm not even watching it on a high speed platform. Sometimes it does over a couple million shares a second. What a joke.

Frixxxx

12-04-2009, 09:48 AM

We should have known. :rolleyes:

Luckily TSP'ers couldn't react to the late sell-off on Thursday.

Um, I wish I could have...I would have jumped in for this one.....

But, there are other ways to skin a cat!

tsptalk

12-04-2009, 10:56 AM

The jobs report reversals are coming quicker and quicker. It used to be days, now it's hours.

I'm guessing the indices will close higher by the close (Dow down 18 right now), but losing a 1.5% to 2% intraday gain is not a great sign.

Bullitt

12-04-2009, 11:04 AM

Jason Goepfert was saying this morning that: SPY gapped up on NFP day by +1% 10 times since '00. One week later, SPY was up only 1 time, avg return -2.1%

JTH

12-04-2009, 11:28 AM

Jason Goepfert was saying this morning that: SPY gapped up on NFP day by +1% 10 times since '00. One week later, SPY was up only 1 time, avg return -2.1%

Thanks, that's valuable info!!!

hessian

12-08-2009, 07:30 AM

Here's the TRANS, another perspective.
Note the bollingers, and Slo STO lookin about to flip -just FYI
VR
7516

tsptalk

12-08-2009, 01:47 PM

I see the problem there hessian. But I like the relative strength of the market leaders today - the trannies and the nasdaq. Trannies are down 0.16% (still above 4050) as of 2:45 PM ET, and the Naz is down 0.62%. Compare that to the Dow and S&P which are each down about 1.0%.

Bullitt

12-19-2009, 03:09 PM

With all the bearishness on the small banks, I can't help but to notice a possible Reverse H&S pattern breakout today in the Regional Bank Index. Maybe it's legit, maybe it's not, but upside would be around 23.50 if it works. That target would challenge the previous August high.

7677

tsptalk

12-19-2009, 04:00 PM

That is a good sign, although it would be nice to see more volume on a breakout.

tsptalk

12-21-2009, 09:27 AM

Breakout in Nasdaq...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/122109a.gif

James48843

12-21-2009, 09:34 AM

Santa rally here?

7683

tsptalk

12-21-2009, 09:43 AM

It's about time. Where ya been Santa?

coolhand

12-21-2009, 09:48 AM

It's about time. Where ya been Santa?

I don't think I'd say that too loud. ;)

nnuut

12-21-2009, 10:03 AM

Just a small cheer??:worried: 7684

tsptalk

12-21-2009, 10:05 AM

Yeah, a small cheer as the close is the important indicator. As I just mentioned in the S-fund thread, Monday morning gaps can be flaky.

tsptalk

12-21-2009, 12:02 PM

The VIX is down to 20.52. :sick:

coolhand

12-21-2009, 12:16 PM

The VIX is down to 20.52. :sick:

I'm really looking forward to seeing that indicator drop below 20.

Cause that's when BT hits the lilly pad!

And that's something I just gotta see. :D

WorkFE

12-21-2009, 12:22 PM

CH,
We could sell tickets to that event. Plus all the used sticky pants that you'll be able to find on ebay:laugh:

tsptalk

12-21-2009, 12:59 PM

I'd be surprised if birchtree sells regardless of the VIX. As a buy and holder he will find a reason not to sell. And I can see the reason why now. 20.0 is a low reading this year for the VIX, but historically it is not bad at all. It's all relative.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/122109b.gif

coolhand

12-21-2009, 01:05 PM

tsptalk

12-21-2009, 01:12 PM

I know. I've read that too, but don't believe him. :D

Sounds like you don't either.

Birchtree

12-21-2009, 01:40 PM

And the intrigue continues. He will shift but only gently - I'm thinking I'm safe until March 2010. But we all know the blind side is waiting for the complacent. If I move 5% a month I'd be 30% into the G fund by June '10, and ready to absorb the coming correction. The VIX is probably heading into the middle teens and is relevant for a contrarian.

James48843

12-23-2009, 12:39 PM

Santa rally here?

7708

VIX is down to 19 and change. My charts are saying VIX will hit about 17 and then reverse. It doesn't make sense to me- but that's what the P&F chart on the VIX is saying- so I'm trusting it.

It's becoming darn hard NOT to bail out here- but then again, Santa has been good. I almost bailed this morning, but I'm going to hang on till next week now.

Merry Christmas- Santa Rally Ho Ho Ho to you.

tsptalk

12-23-2009, 02:22 PM

coolhand

12-23-2009, 05:00 PM

A VIX of 17 seems reasonable for the holiday trading period. There's certainly complacency out there, but we're all just waiting for Santa to finish giving. No one seems to be in a rush to get out. Once the exit door opens, however, don't fall down or you might get trampled.

Merry Christmas!

Yes. I'm thinking this thing is really setting up for some profit taking, but timing it is going to be tricky. Assuming it happens of course.

I noticed you blew past all those I Funders on the tracker yesterday. :)

tsptalk

12-23-2009, 05:23 PM

Yeah, I saw that group a few weeks ago and I thought it would be impenetrable, but a strong rally in the dollar and boom! Now, I believe the dollar is going to pullback from the 200-day EMA, so I don't know if my lead on them will survive next week.

JTH

12-23-2009, 05:36 PM

JTH

12-23-2009, 05:50 PM

One item of interest.

Historically the Dollar's strongest months are Jan & Feb.

I know this because some guy on Bloomberg said it at 4 in the morning, so it must be true...

tsptalk

12-23-2009, 06:10 PM

One item of interest.

Historically the Dollar's strongest months are Jan & Feb.

I know this because some guy on Bloomberg said it at 4 in the morning, so it must be true...
Well, now it can't work. Once you notice a trend, it's over. Just speaking of the trend out loud is enough to kill it. :D

tsptalk

12-23-2009, 06:13 PM

Nice catch on the 200 EMA, what the heck how many moving averages do you watch? :cheesy:
I watch the basics - 20, 50 and 200-day MA's. I also like the 86 day (it seems to work for some reason).

Bullitt

12-23-2009, 06:25 PM

Well, now it can't work. Once you notice a trend, it's over.

That's why I find it interesting that we're talking about the VIX again. The media killed that one on the front page and are now in the process of killing the dollar on the front page. What next?

As far as the VIX correlation and dollar correlation, I use this analogy. Next time you have your turn signal on at a red light and the car in front of you does too, how many times do both signals seem to click in unison? Maybe once every 25 seconds?

Ha. But isn't this great? Has anybody learned anything from past history lessons? I unloaded a mutual fund and a few stocks today for LT tax losses. Both were mistakes from the gate, but tax loss forward write down incentive along with a VIX below 20 and jovial happy times Christmas trading volume equals good bye! VIX below 20; how many said they would sell when it got to that point? Yet predictions for 2010 are mostly bullish with 6-20% gains the consensus.

This rally is/was a gift. How did investors manage to take advantage of it?

Birchtree

12-23-2009, 07:36 PM

Someone said today that the small caps were 30% overvalued currently - just thought you all would like to know.

tsptalk

12-23-2009, 07:44 PM

I thought I heard that it was the large caps that were overvalued by 30%? They were saying that small caps do better coming out of a recession. I may have heard both sides of the argument today. I guess everyone is just promoting what they are invested in.

James48843

12-23-2009, 07:50 PM

I guess everyone is just promoting what they are invested in.

+1 Roger that.

I am sitting here wondering if perhaps I need to be thinking in terms of narrow stop loss point.

I normally would have bailed out today- but we're in Santa Rally mode- what do you all think about a 2% stop loss point from here? I may want to just hang in there- and I haven't seen any losses bigger than about 1.5% in any of these retraces lately. Is a 2% stop loss from here too small a margin, do you think?

tsptalk

12-23-2009, 08:11 PM

Is a 2% stop loss from here too small a margin, do you think?

My thought is that the bias is positive next week, but because volume is going to be very light, if a sell-off begins, it could be severe. More volume = more stability. Less volume and the market can get pushed around more easily - up or down.

So as I said above, if the selling kicks in, it could be a run for the exits. So, with our delay, a 2% stop loss could be run over.

Like bullitt suggested, perhaps just taking some off the table would be best. I hate to be out of the market on Monday, but I don't want to give up my hard earned December gains.

Birchtree

12-23-2009, 08:24 PM

I can understand why you don't want to get out - but do it for me. Save those gains. I can just barely see your taillights. I do wish you showed more clarity on your positions - but that's your business.

Birchtree

12-23-2009, 09:02 PM

"I feel as though the market is about to change direction abruptly in the coming days or weeks."

http://safehaven.com/article-15344.htm

tsptalk

12-23-2009, 09:24 PM

You are quite competitive there B. Talking us into selling to try to move up the AutoTracker? :D

mayday

12-23-2009, 09:49 PM

You are quite competitive there B. Talking us into selling to try to move up the AutoTracker? :D

Sly Dog that MR. B :D

Boghie

12-24-2009, 12:24 PM

Boghie

12-24-2009, 12:35 PM

Anyway,

I have no idea where the market shall go. Thus, I will hold to a 'moderate' allocation.

Hopefully, the market will allow me to reduce my trade count. October 2008 through April 2009 were very spooky. Flitted here, shifted there. When one is living through 8% dumps a day one's allocation strategy can change. Not all of us have the staying power of BirchTree – King of the Ents.

I, personally, think we are plateauing for quite some time. No big moves. But, I am not selling the farm and heading to the Lilly Pad. And, conversely, I don’t think I can figure out a swing trade.

Kinda boring, but there is nothing exciting out there.

A boring market outlook.

Nice.

Birchtree

12-24-2009, 01:11 PM

Just wait until you hear the siren song of 'get me in at any price'. We could conceivably see another year like 2000 all over again - now that would be something. The money is straining on the sidelines earning no returns. They will come because the bull is in charge.

Bullitt

01-02-2010, 01:47 PM

My outlook for 2010 is watch out for March because that's when Bernanke and co. plan on tightening the spigot by ending the QE, which has been propping up the mortgage market and instilling confidence in the banking ponzi playpen labeled CMBS. With an election year on our hand I plan on some other form of stimulus being initiated, which in the end will only prime the inflation pump. Thus, me thinks we top out in Summer 2010. I'll guess July 23rd we see the top. How fitting, right on a Friday. I also see Gold making a new high in 2010, (but nothing higher than 1300) as inflation shows clear-cut signs in the market. Whether this top I'm calling for is the top or just an IT top with a 20-30% drop to follow, I don't know.

The yield curve is offering us clues for now that things are looking better, but perhaps it's just those bond vigilantes telling the fed to get a grip.

tsptalk

01-13-2010, 06:57 PM

I jumped on board today for a short-term trade, thinking I was buying a second down day in a bull market. It may turn out OK, but I was another victim of the dreaded early deadline.

JTH

01-13-2010, 07:06 PM

I jumped on board today for a short-term trade, thinking I was buying a second down day in a bull market. It may turn out OK, but I was another victim of the dreaded early deadline.

Could always be worse, I'd much rather buy into rising prices verses declining. At least buyers are stepping in, and did you see Tuesdays AGG volume spike possibly marking a top? If it's true, it should bode well for stocks.

tsptalk

01-13-2010, 07:22 PM

Perhaps. It is amazing how many people are bearish on bonds, but baaaaa, I am part of that herd. :) The 30-year bond chart looks bad.

tsptalk

01-21-2010, 12:46 PM

Today's S&P 500 low is 1114+ and the 50-day EMA is at 1113. If the S&P is going to find some support, right about here would be a good place. Seeing a move and a close, below 1113 by more than a few points would be a bad sign.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/012110a.gif

poolman

01-21-2010, 01:23 PM

coolhand

01-21-2010, 01:31 PM

Good Point Tom.

Looks like 1133 will be resistance after today

and 1113 is next on the chopping block. ;)

Or it can be another hook for the bulls if we close above it today. :D

This is just such a great set-up for a bull trap all the way out to Monday. But then, who really knows when the bounce comes?

poolman

01-21-2010, 01:34 PM

Or it can be another hook for the bulls if we close above it today. :D

This is just such a great set-up for a bull trap all the way out to Monday. But then, who really knows when the bounce comes?

True Coolhand

Anythings possible but I'm not feeling it.

tsptalk

01-21-2010, 03:03 PM

Today's action could be knee-jerk to Obama's plans for the banks, or it could be a change that will have fundamental implications that could kill this bull market. I think we will know in the coming days.

tsptalk

01-21-2010, 03:05 PM

Google is down over $20 on the initial release of earnings (which sound good). yikes!

poolman

01-21-2010, 03:11 PM

Google is down over $20 on the initial release of earnings (which sound good). yikes!

I said this yesterday. I think it was in my thread not sure.

We are getting better than expected earnings in the last two day's and the stocks are selling after hours.

Citi just came out with a beat and after hours is trading lower.

Sentiment is changing fast.

amoeba

01-21-2010, 06:28 PM

I said this yesterday. I think it was in my thread not sure.

We are getting better than expected earnings in the last two day's and the stocks are selling after hours.

Citi just came out with a beat and after hours is trading lower.

Sentiment is changing fast.

selling after hours indeed - down ~4.6% as we speak (4:30 pm PDT; 1/21/10); GOOG's P:E is still way too high; it could be down 20% and still be overvalued.

So, anyone out there have a notion to go in on (or before) the consumer confidence/michigan sentiment numbers next week? Not me. I see a minimum of 7% off the peak (1080 on the S&P); twice that before the end of the month (i.e., S&P ~990-1010) wouldn't surprise me at all.

coolhand

02-04-2010, 07:47 AM

Tom, your thought about Friday's potentially caustic unemployment picture is the same as mine. The information has been posted everywhere by now. I'm thinking they tank the market today to set-up a rally tomorrow to bag the bears. If I wasn't following the SS and had more flexiblity in my trading, I might make a play for it.

Of course, if sentiment doesn't have enough bearish support tomorrow it could also be look out below, but I doubt it.

Bullitt

02-04-2010, 08:44 AM

Tom, your thought about Friday's potentially caustic unemployment picture is the same as mine.

You have to wonder. By time we get information it's stale and already been acted upon so maybe this little tidbit of information is what insiders used to dump the market 8% from it's January high. We'll never know since the media always puts a rosy spin on why the markets did this or that yesterday or today.

Market Outlook:
ST, roll the dice
IT, trade a bear market rally or two
LT, the March rally is over

Risk/Reward isn't worth it and this correction could very easily turn into a 15% move downwards that we aren't able to recover from.

tsptalk

02-04-2010, 08:54 AM

Of course, if sentiment doesn't have enough bearish support tomorrow it could also be look out below, but I doubt it.
Did you see the new AAII sentiment results?

29% bulls, 43% bears for a 0.67 to 1 ratio.

That's the lowest since the Oct low, and the July low.

coolhand

02-04-2010, 08:58 AM

You have to wonder. By time we get information it's stale and already been acted upon so maybe this little tidbit of information is what insiders used to dump the market 8% from it's January high. We'll never know since the media always puts a rosy spin on why the markets did this or that yesterday or today.

Market Outlook:
ST, roll the dice
IT, trade a bear market rally or two
LT, the March rally is over

Risk/Reward isn't worth it and this correction could very easily turn into a 15% move downwards that we aren't able to recover from.

You are correct and until I can get a read on sentiment tomorrow morning (along with how the options guys are positioned) I wouldn't think about making a move.

coolhand

02-04-2010, 09:02 AM

Did you see the new AAII sentiment results?

29% bulls, 43% bears for a 0.67 to 1 ratio.

That's the lowest since the Oct low, and the July low.

We've got a good decline going this morning, which should get things beared up some more as the bearish case is looking more attractive ST.

tsptalk

02-04-2010, 09:06 AM

We've got a good decline going this morning, which should get things beared up some more as the bearish case is looking more attractive ST.
Bearish, or bullish?

coolhand

02-04-2010, 09:10 AM

Bearish, or bullish?

Bullish. :cheesy:

coolhand

02-04-2010, 09:16 AM

Bearish, or bullish?

While bullish, the Options players are not positioned for a big rally. Today, Trader's Talk had twice as many longs as shorts so the market may be trying to make a statement that could carry over into tomorrow the way things are going this morning. It's downright ugly. But that's when the contrarian side of me wants to take a shot. But at the moment, the SS is not about to give a buy signal any time soon, and that needs to be taken into consideration too.

Bullitt

02-04-2010, 09:16 AM

Just got the email from AAII on their sentiment reading after you posted it Tom. Today should make for another ST bounce like we had a few days ago.

nnuut

02-04-2010, 09:26 AM

Bearish, or bullish?
Skittish! Like a horse that hears a Rattlesnake! Probably a good day to go all in, but not me!
Let me see the NUMBERS!:blink:

tsptalk

02-04-2010, 09:34 AM

I posted this the other day (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_2_2_10.html) calling it "the games" we could encounter. The market never makes it easy to make a call.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/020210e.gif

Is today our big negative day to get investors leaning the wrong way again?

Birchtree

02-04-2010, 09:58 AM

With a stronger dollar you can count on a stronger economy and a stronger market - we will undoubtedly rocket right back up as fast as we came down going through 1200 this time around. Now is the time to be contrary to the consensus view - buy against the VIX.

coolhand

02-04-2010, 09:59 AM

Silverbird

02-04-2010, 10:13 AM

Strong dollar is only a strong indicator IF it's not due to other economies buying dollars in order to keep their exported goods cheap. The hangover from the last buying stint is inevitable.

Steadygain

02-04-2010, 10:38 AM

Strong dollar is only a strong indicator IF it's not due to other economies buying dollars in order to keep their exported goods cheap. The hangover from the last buying stint is inevitable.

You're something else ;):toung:

JTH

02-04-2010, 10:54 AM

TRAN has put in a lower low than the 1 FEB breakdown.

8187

Birchtree

02-04-2010, 11:37 AM

Now that's what I call a buying opportunity - I'm ready to get back into some more CSX. All I need is for the market to give me back my buying power from yesterday. It's all about protecting the base at this time.

tsptalk

02-04-2010, 11:50 AM

TRAN has put in a lower low than the 1 FEB breakdown.

It's now just 37-points above the 200-day EMA.

Bullitt

02-04-2010, 11:59 AM

I don't think it would be a Primary Wave Dow Theory reversal until either Transports or Industrials broke the June highs, but its bearish sign nonetheless.

tsptalk

02-05-2010, 02:36 PM

25 minutes is an eternity on a Friday afternoon, but so far so good. Can it really be this easy - a rebound off of the 200-day EMA? It rarely is [that easy], but maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/020510a.gif

Bullitt

02-05-2010, 04:13 PM

What about a comparison to July-October 2007? That's my best case scenario.

Today was eerily similar to that reversal day in Mid August 2007 that triggered the final leg of the Great Bull. I wonder how the volume comparison came in.

tsptalk

02-05-2010, 04:26 PM

Today was eerily similar to that reversal day in Mid August 2007 that triggered the final leg of the Great Bull. I wonder how the volume comparison came in.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/020510b.gif

Bullitt

02-05-2010, 04:47 PM

Over 5 Billion shares on both days. Buku stops blown too.

Tsunami

02-06-2010, 09:17 PM

Actually, what catches my eye even more on that 2007 chart is the Feb/March correction. It's identical to what we've just had in the pattern and the number of days is almost exactly the same for each move to the bottom in March 2007. It even tagged the 200-ema just like yesterday.

Hmmm

tsptalk

02-11-2010, 09:55 AM

The Dow Transports are rocking and rolling this morning, up over 1%. That breaks the steep down trend, but there are other obstacles...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/021110a.gif

JTH

02-11-2010, 10:05 AM

I noticed a small head & shoulders developing on the 60 minute chart last night. It had a rising neckline, but the right shoulder was rather small.

nnuut

02-11-2010, 10:26 AM

Continuing to the upside, now the DOW and Nasdaq are following!! HHHUUUMMMM?:confused:
8292

nnuut

02-11-2010, 10:45 AM

UP UP and AWAY!!!!!! 8295

tsptalk

02-19-2010, 12:40 PM

The Dow Transports are flying today; up about 1.5% while the other indices are up less than 0.50%.

JTH

02-19-2010, 01:28 PM

thanks tom. is this an exhaustive move or doyou think its a new move higher turning 4050 into support

tsptalk

02-19-2010, 01:34 PM

I'm running out of reasons to expect a downturn. That must mean it's time for one. :D

Birchtree

02-19-2010, 01:49 PM

Not long ago the consensus was that the DJTA would confirm a double top and signal a greater market deterioration ahead. That's out the door now.

JTH

02-19-2010, 02:37 PM

I'm running out of reasons to expect a downturn. That must mean it's time for one. :D

i feel the same way. this is not the market setup i want to buy into. still. id rather be wrong in the gfund than wrong in stocks

nnuut

02-19-2010, 02:59 PM

i feel the same way. this is not the market setup i want to buy into. still. id rather be wrong in the gfund than wrong in stocks
I'm doing the same thing, but it's driving me nnuuts!:sick:

Bullitt

02-19-2010, 06:59 PM

Many investors missed the big rally and the only way for them to get back at the world is to make money going short or buying puts. This rally has been nothing but a short squeeze. The so called PPT hasn't bought any MBS for weeks now so we can't say they are manipulating the market anymore. Shorts and aggressive bears continue to get blown out like they have the past 10 months.

Transports are forming a nice right shoulder here and have very strong resistance at the Sept and Oct highs. In an overbought environment, I don't see that line being cracked to the upside. Watch the Transports for a lead to the downside.

tsptalk

02-22-2010, 11:08 AM

fedgolfer

02-22-2010, 11:15 AM

With the S&P back above the 50-day EMA (3 closes) I'm back in buy the dips mode. I had entered an IFT for today's COB, but cancelled it. I think I will wait one more day. I was remembering Oscar's rule to buy a 2 day pull back in a bull market. Today would just be day 1 if it holds in negative territory.

i was thinking the same thing with so many indicators around the 50 day... looking at the financials though, there may be a buck n' chuck and we could close higher today. Friggin IFT deadline... I felt i had to make a move and hope to buy in lower before end of month.

350zCommTech

02-22-2010, 11:30 AM

With the S&P back above the 50-day EMA (3 closes) I'm back in buy the dips mode. I had entered an IFT for today's COB, but cancelled it. I think I will wait one more day. I was remembering Oscar's rule to buy a 2 day pull back in a bull market. Today would just be day 1 if it holds in negative territory.

When I saw that, I was thinking that you must be crazy. Staying in is one thing, but getting in now makes no sense. The odds are against you.

Did you see Oscar's weekend video? He's very bullish. He's calling for new highs. He might be out of sync.

tsptalk

02-22-2010, 11:55 AM

Yeah, Oscar has been whipsawed badly this year.

As far as being a buyer here goes, I talked about it in today's commentary (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_2_22_10.html). The risk / reward is good. We've just moved back above the 50EMA, and if we fall back below it, you take the small loss and get out.

When the S&P crosses back above the 50EMA, it tends to stay above it for a while longer. I'm thinking we have 2 or 3 weeks of upside left. It could be a double top situation.

The blue arrows below show similar spots - Small consolidation after crossing above the 50EMA. Also, the S&P is just breaking above the October highs. That's a pretty good 4 month consolidation. The problem is if we are just making a right shoulder of an H&S here (with October's high being the left). But 3 closes below the 50EMA, and I'm out again.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/022210a.gif

Birchtree

02-22-2010, 12:45 PM

The best policy in a bull market is to close your eyes and just do it - buy.

Guest2

02-22-2010, 02:49 PM

The best policy in a bull market is to close your eyes and just do it - buy.

"Buy, the market's taking a dive and you'll never see prices this low again"
"Buy, because this is a Bull Market on the rise and the train is leaving"

GEE, Is it ever OK to SELL ? Up or Down, Birchtree is a Perma-Buyer with Brass, ummmmmm, knuckles ! :nuts:

tsptalk

02-23-2010, 09:52 AM

With the S&P back above the 50-day EMA (3 closes) I'm back in buy the dips mode. I had entered an IFT for today's COB, but cancelled it. I think I will wait one more day. I was remembering Oscar's rule to buy a 2 day pull back in a bull market. Today would just be day 1 if it holds in negative territory.
OK, here's the move back to the 50-day EMA. The S&P should have a pretty good bid here in the high 1090's. Jumping in. Also buying some SSO here.

coolhand

02-23-2010, 09:56 AM

OK, here's the move back to the 50-day EMA. The S&P should have a pretty good bid here in the high 1090's. Jumping in. Also buying some SSO here.

I agree, I tend to think this weakness should be bought. And I'm outta ammo. :rolleyes:

tsptalk

02-23-2010, 10:13 AM

I agree, I tend to think this weakness should be bought. And I'm outta ammo. :rolleyes:
Damn transfer limits! I wish I didn't have any left in Feb. The only reason I do is because I missed the rally the last couple of weeks. :rolleyes:

I think James was going to go through the numbers after we get the December costs, and do some kind of cost report. He's suggesting costs will have risen since the limits were put in place. That will be great info to post in our blogs.

Minnow

02-23-2010, 10:27 AM

Damn transfer limits! I wish I didn't have any left in Feb. The only reason I do is because I missed the rally the last couple of weeks. :rolleyes:

I think James was going to go through the numbers after we get the December costs, and do some kind of cost report. He's suggesting costs will have risen since the limits were put in place. That will be great info to post in our blogs.

Careful there Tom, one day someone might start a thread railing against the 2 IFT limits... :laugh:

Don't worry, you get to make two more moves in March... I remember once a very smart guy suggested giving us 24 moves throughout the year instead of 2 per month...

To stay on topic here... looking at the 20 and 50 sma's, things don't look great for this week... but I have been proven wrong more than once.

Frixxxx

02-23-2010, 10:32 AM

To stay on topic here... looking at the 20 and 50 sma's, things don't look great for this week... but I have been proven wrong more than once.
That's why you are still a minnow:cheesy:! Become the inner shark you know you are meant to be!

I've been very contrarian since Jan, and I'm not stopping just yet!:cool:

JTH

02-23-2010, 10:33 AM

Still in Vegas, so haven't been watching the markets till now. First impression is a failed attempt at 61.8 Fib, now going to test the 38.2 Fib at 1085ish. Anyone agree?

8490

fedgolfer

02-23-2010, 10:36 AM

... great info, Tom and everyone else! The Fib #'s from the 1044 low pivot to yesterday's high pivot of 1112 suggests the 38.2 fib retracement lies at 1086'ish. Obviously that's splitting hairs since this can happen easily between today's IFT and tomorrow's IFT deadline... today or tomorrow?!

fedgolfer

02-23-2010, 10:38 AM

... too funny JTH, thinking the exact same thing and was typing mine same time as you... yes, I agree, but it could happen today or tomorrow AM.

JTH

02-23-2010, 10:51 AM

Hourly S&P 500 looking 4 support with the potenial 50/200 EMA Golden Cross. If this holds, that gets me bullish, if not, well than I was right all along. :cheesy:

8491

coolhand

02-23-2010, 10:59 AM

I've got a sneaking suspicion that we're gonna chop around at the current level till later in the afternoon, and then the dip buyers are gonna show up. We could be green by the close.

JTH

02-23-2010, 11:14 AM

First test of the 15 min 200 EMA since 16 Jan where we gapped up 2+ points. gap gets filled at 1076.75 any takers?

8492

tsptalk

02-23-2010, 12:11 PM

I would like to see that 1076 gap get filled today if possible, with a snap back rally to about 1095 by the close or early tomorrow. Probably too much to ask for.

These Consumer Confidence reports are like sentiment surveys in that they are good contrarian indicators at extreme readings. Today's was very much below estimates and a good scare for investors.

tsptalk

02-25-2010, 11:08 AM

I'm going to illustrate this in Friday's commentary, but if the comparison to the 2007 market (as bullitt mentioned several posts up, and I noted in the 2/23 commentary (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_2_23_10.html)), then today's sell off (maybe into tomorrow) should be close to the low for this push down, before starting a new leg higher.

If the S&P continues down next week, the comparison is all but dead.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/022610b.gif ......................http://www.tsptalk.com/images/022610c.gif

merlin

02-25-2010, 11:58 AM

Looking forward to the commentary. Looks good. Here to hope and a prayer .:D

fedgolfer

02-25-2010, 12:21 PM

Nice side-by-side comparison, Tom. If this were Facebook, I'd click "LIKE".

WorkFE

02-25-2010, 01:08 PM

If this were guaranteed i'd click "interfund transfer" :D

Lobo

02-25-2010, 02:02 PM

Well....since I bought in 50% in the last few days....I certainly hope you are right!

Lobo :)

tsptalk

02-25-2010, 02:11 PM

This doesn't have to rhyme exactly of course, but the closer the better as it depicts a drawing, if you will, of investors' reactions and emotions during a similar situation.

That said, if you notice below that at point "F" in 2007, the market closed well off the lows, and above the 20 and 50-day EMAs. So, I think it is important that this afternoon's rebound holds and we don't close back near the lows (there's about 50 minutes to go and the S&P is down about 4 points after being down over 1%). This keeps the rhyme going and the future reaction more predictable.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/022610b.gif ......................http://www.tsptalk.com/images/022610c.gif

KevinD

02-25-2010, 03:24 PM

Nice.

Bullitt

02-25-2010, 03:46 PM

Another similarity between 2007 and now is that volume was well below the 50 DMA.

Bullitt

02-25-2010, 03:47 PM

Another similarity between 2007 and what's happening right now is that volume is well below the 50 DMA in both instances.

JTH

02-25-2010, 04:20 PM

Birchtree

02-25-2010, 04:55 PM

"The reality we are living today far surpasses even the most optimistic forecasts of a year ago."

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2010/02/financial-conditions-another-v-shaped.html

tsptalk

02-25-2010, 05:23 PM

While I agree there are a substantial amount of similarities, IMHO this comparison supports a sub-666 outlook going into 2011.

Here is the 3 day chart where I've circled the two time frames. Check out the twin resemblance in the 39, 3 Stochastic, +DI & -DI crossover, and 20/50 EMA. However there is a huge difference in the ADX & the 200 EMA. Also, volume is much weaker now than before. This does not paint a rosy long-term picture.

Absolutely. In the market commentary (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_2_23_10.html) that I posted that info initially, I closed it this way...

"Remember, I am talking about trades here, and not investments. Everything I mentioned about 2006 to 2008 preceded the terrible bear market of 2008 where many indices lost 50% or more of their value. That could very well happen again for all we know, so right I am trading what I see. Everything can change in a blink of an eye if the technical picture changes."

JTH

02-25-2010, 05:46 PM

Absolutely. In the market commentary (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_2_23_10.html) that I posted that info initially, I closed it this way...

"Remember, I am talking about trades here, and not investments. Everything I mentioned about 2006 to 2008 preceded the terrible bear market of 2008 where many indices lost 50% or more of their value. That could very well happen again for all we know, so right I am trading what I see. Everything can change in a blink of an eye if the technical picture changes."

Thanks Tom, sorry, I normally read your blog nightly, but I was out of town and just got back home. Great catch on the charts!!!

tsptalk

02-25-2010, 05:54 PM

No, you are right. I should have said that in my post today as well.

Bullitt

02-25-2010, 07:22 PM

Traders standpoint.... Reverse H&S pattern begins to move higher some time late next week after one more bounce lower. Target price 1200 which was the original reverse H&S pattern target and also would be the mini reverse H&S target.

Investor standpoint.... Risk to reward for new buys is not safe, regardless of AAPL shares soon becoming 'cheaper'.

merlin

02-25-2010, 09:13 PM

JTH

03-02-2010, 11:11 AM

Following the Transports, NASDAQ & small caps, the S&P 500 has a 20/50 EMA Golden Cross. :)

8540

tsptalk

03-02-2010, 12:17 PM

Thanks! That is good news. So why am I getting so nevous? :D Wall of worry?

fedgolfer

03-02-2010, 12:31 PM

Sentiment Survey is kicking a$$.

tsptalk

03-02-2010, 12:40 PM

Exactly. This week's survey will be interesting. How bullish will it get - if at all?

I guess it depends on what happens on Wed. and Thu.

Birchtree

03-02-2010, 12:46 PM

We all know that America's love affair with stocks has turned to hate - and that's just the way I like it. The fewer the bull has to pull along the better - the small investor will get their turn several thousand points up from here. That's the classic strategy.

fedgolfer

03-02-2010, 12:49 PM

deleted... opened my mouth before seeing how the survey actually worked!

JTH

03-02-2010, 05:57 PM

SPX Inverted Head & Shoulder takes us to 1177. Still looking for the breakout in volume.

8545

Frixxxx

03-02-2010, 06:29 PM

SPX Inverted Head & Shoulder takes us to 1177. Still looking for the breakout in volume.

You and me both, no volume-no support at 1120.:mad:

Guest2

03-02-2010, 06:38 PM

You and me both, no volume-no support at 1120.:mad:

My Belly Button tells me we're in for a double-dip ! It was alittle Fuzzy on the details ! :nuts:

JTH

03-03-2010, 12:14 PM

Transports Bull flag?

8554

tsptalk

03-03-2010, 12:28 PM

Maybe intraday, but I'm not seeing it on the daily yet - the daily is still hanging on to the uptrend, and that intraday flag may keep it there. But I don't like that flat top.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/030310a.gif

JTH

03-04-2010, 12:50 PM

JTH

03-04-2010, 12:57 PM

Hourly: Here's a closer look at that neckline supporting price.

8569

tsptalk

03-04-2010, 12:59 PM

SkyPilot

03-04-2010, 01:09 PM

I am thinking that there is still a lot of upside left in this market, as we were so far down. As we continue to cycle out of the recession, I think the market will do better than the economy for a while. When the economy reaches recovery, then inflation will begin, and that will add in the turbulants that will foretell the next big dip.

Or, maybe we are already on the precipice of another cliff? :D Have been riding the S fund for a long time, and think I will continue...

JTH

03-04-2010, 01:15 PM

Yeah, it's hanging tough. But no volume. But that's actually what you like to see when a bull flag is forming. But again, that's an intraday chart so the expected result could also be an intraday short-term move.

As they say, never short a dull market.

Well this isn't exactly the pump & dump I've come to expect prior to a jobs report, where's the pump? Have you looked at On Balance Volume lately? Last time it was this high, it marked the 1150 top.

fedgolfer

03-04-2010, 01:20 PM

Hourly: That neckline on the S&P 500 looks to be holding up rather well as a trendline. I don't recall a time when waiting on the jobs report was reflected in flat price as much as it seems to be now.

holding up extraordinarly well considering where the $ has gone today. On the 10 day chart w/ 30 min candles for the financials, the triple top could be kissing the channel goodbye. And tran needs to hold here on the 1 month perfectly symetrical bull channel. But, even if it drops 1 or 2% i think it well get bought back up in a jiffy.

JTH

03-04-2010, 01:23 PM

I won't be surprised if we get a late day push in either direction. This should tell us what the job report expectations really are. :cool:

JTH

03-05-2010, 11:44 AM

Monthly: Can the VIX go down further? You betcha.

8585

fedgolfer

03-05-2010, 12:18 PM

that VIX chart Tom posted from SentimentTrader on S&P performance following declining VIX on 13 of 15 days is some primo-data.

If we get a 2% pullback the odds are saying buy.

After reading that, I'm content jumping back in after 1% pullback... even chasing it doesn't look that painful with a -3.5% max on 1 week out from 1/4/88.

All those periods were in economic building phases pre-rate hikes too, i think. That is one massive bull case.

JTH

03-05-2010, 12:29 PM

Both the inverted Head & Shoulders and the Bull flag have the same 1157 price objective when you use the median price (regression line) over the head.

8586

tsptalk

03-05-2010, 12:50 PM

Rallies or sell offs after a surprise in the jobs report tend to reverse rather quickly - usually within one or two days. Lately these type of reactions have been coming as soon as intraday. I'm hoping that would set up a buying opportunity early next week.

But I am actually also getting nervous about Greece. A bailout is not a given anymore and this could really spook our market. March could turn out to be a very interesting month after all is said and done.

So, while the S&P is above 50-day EMA, buy the dips. If our markets do get spooked by Greece, that could change. Hopefully we'll get a head start to get out rather than a crash..

JTH

03-09-2010, 09:20 AM

Choo Choo, all aboard the TRAN express...

8626

Frixxxx

03-09-2010, 09:28 AM

I'm on it......keeping me in the market!!!!!

tsptalk

03-09-2010, 09:49 AM

Choo Choo, all aboard the TRAN express...

Double top test coming. The Naz and small caps had no problems with it, so I don't know why the trannies would, but it's there.

Frixxxx

03-09-2010, 09:52 AM

Double top test coming. The Naz and small caps had no problems with it, so I don't know why the trannies would, but it's there.
:laugh: Really? trannies:nuts:!! Can't stop :laugh:!!!!

OK, Got my good laugh for the day!

Birchtree

03-09-2010, 10:08 AM

Tom bulkowski said we would hit a target of 4250 by 3/15 - so we're early. The primary trend of the stock market according to Dow Theory would be confirmed as bullish if the DJIA and DJTA can close above their January highs at 10,725 and 4262.

fedgolfer

03-09-2010, 10:18 AM

I love the trannies, the TNA and even the POT.

... where are the Peter Schiff followers saying gold to $5,000 and $10,000?

The real gold can be found in Graham's Intelligent Investor... the golden nuggets in there on market emotions is amazing. Plus the thoughts on reactions to negative news. Same thing, different spin. I think Buffett recently saying he exited his currency trades says a lot about where American companies can go with an increasing dollar. Plus, his all-in bets against the naysayers.

JTH

03-10-2010, 11:03 AM

Here is the S&P 500 verses the VIX comparison chart showing us it's already reached its double top. Based on this chart, this is about the time where we should be looking for the next pullback.

8642

tsptalk

03-10-2010, 12:01 PM

Interesting chart. Thanks!

Birchtree

03-10-2010, 12:07 PM

If interested you can find a similar informational approach in my thread #7885.

JTH

03-11-2010, 10:13 AM

One heck of a wait for this supposed 1150 double top.

8651

Birchtree

03-11-2010, 11:01 AM

Some are saying the waterfall decline won't start until April 8th - and will take us down another 5%. Won't that be refreshing.

anthony

03-12-2010, 02:04 PM

Some are saying the waterfall decline won't start until April 8th - and will take us down another 5%. Won't that be refreshing.

That's a very specific date. Why the 8th? Or, why first to second week of April?

Birchtree

03-12-2010, 02:12 PM

I believe it has to do with the Bradley turn cycle and the 9 month cycle acting in unison. You'll be nicely prepared for it.

anthony

03-12-2010, 02:35 PM

I believe it has to do with the Bradley turn cycle and the 9 month cycle acting in unison. You'll be nicely prepared for it.

If it wasn't 2330hrs in GMT+3 I'd wikipedia or yahoo finance glossary for "Bradley Turn Cycle." As it stands, I'm going to sleep and hope some gracious person with a tree in their avatar explains it while I rest ...

Birchtree

03-12-2010, 03:03 PM

Anthony,

You might find some information on http://www.minyanville.com in an article by Jeffrey Cooper. This is a bear site just so you know. The article is; Anatomy of Blow-Off tops.

Tsunami

03-12-2010, 05:30 PM

Anthony,

You might find some information on http://www.minyanville.com in an article by Jeffrey Cooper. This is a bear site just so you know. The article is; Anatomy of Blow-Off tops.

I found the link to that article:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jeffrey-cooper-trading-transports-dow-nasdaq/3/11/2010/id/27237

To me he looks like a good example of somebody trying waaaaaay too hard to find the magical secret clue to timing the market.

It brought back a memory though....about 10 years ago on the first day of the March Madness NCAA tournament I remember taking the day off with three workmates, driving to Reno, and watching the NCAA games in a casino after we placed some wagers...what is memorable is that I remember they had TV's with CNBC on right next to the game TV's, and the market was soaring in that final blowoff peak. We were all more excited about that than the games since of course we were all "all-in" in the markets...if we only knew what was next. :sick:

JTH

03-15-2010, 11:10 AM

Spankyou for the bounce off the 50EMA :cheesy:

8687

JTH

03-16-2010, 10:18 AM

A little slow around here, anyone wanna play follow the leader?

8694

Birchtree

03-16-2010, 10:31 AM

I don't have to follow - I already own a few cars on that train.

Birchtree

03-16-2010, 10:45 AM

The VIX wants to break its 52 week low of 17.42 sometime today.

KevinD

03-16-2010, 10:48 AM

I don't have to follow - I already own a few cars on that train.

Wheres the next stop? I'm tired of being left behind. :(

tsptalk

03-16-2010, 01:39 PM

Wheres the next stop? I'm tired of being left behind. :(
The market will pull back the day after you give up waiting. That's the way it works unfortunately. :D

tsptalk

03-16-2010, 01:41 PM

A little slow around here, anyone wanna play follow the leader?

That's an amazing chart. 17 up days in the last 21. The question is, will the S&P pull back when the transports do, or will it continue to make new highs to try to catch the leader?

Birchtree

03-16-2010, 02:05 PM

"That's hot." Very few people are in the crazy bull camp and that's classic - remember a bull has four legs.

JTH

03-16-2010, 03:23 PM

A bit perplexing to see AGG at all-time highs? I admit, I haven't given much if any thought to my bond charts, they sort of just snuck up on me. Now I look at AGG and think "when did that happen?"

8700

tsptalk

03-16-2010, 03:29 PM

A nice little cup and handle breakout, there.

nnuut

03-16-2010, 03:32 PM

Looks like about 6 cents today.:D Just an estimate!!:toung:

tsptalk

03-16-2010, 03:38 PM

Breakout...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/031610a.gif

JTH

03-16-2010, 04:32 PM

Breakout...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/031610a.gif

Fibonacci levels from the previous 1150.45-1044.50 wave takes us to the following projections.

23.6% 1175.45
38.2% 1190.92
50% 1203.45
61.8% 1215.92

(1220-1250 seems to be the agreed upon peak of the next major wave)

JTH

03-18-2010, 11:39 AM

Some CNBC comentary: Volume is low but this isn't a problem because volitility is low. When volitility is low program buying doesn't kick in as much because price targets aren't met. Hence low volitility brings with it low volume.

JTH

03-18-2010, 04:09 PM

Tweezer bottom?

8711

Warrenlm

03-18-2010, 04:43 PM

For the slow class members among us:
http://web.streetauthority.com/terms/t/tweezerscandles.asp
"In my mind, the tweezers pattern is analogous to a very short-term double top or double bottom. What the tweezers candles say is that prices held twice at the exact same level. At the bottom, sellers were not able to push the stock lower. At the top, the bulls were not able to drive prices higher. Tweezers thus signify very short-term support and resistance levels."

JTH

03-19-2010, 12:02 PM

So here we have the CNBC/Bloomberg junkies attempting to change the tone of these markets, but the truth is folks want a long overdue pullback.

Healthcare is on the front burner again and if it passes folks seems to believe the markets will throw a temper tantrum. Just wait till they realize they are going to pay for this is part with billions from our social security. I can't wait for them to tell me if I smoke & drink they will drop me from the "economical" plan and put me on the "I'm gonna tax you out the azz plan."

The dollar refuses to break, and with inflation in check folks seem to believe the dollar is a better play than gold. IMHO it's a ruse. International banks are buying more and holding more gold than ever before. Not only that, but they aren't selling the gold they do have. Sound too me like they are waiting on the ripe EOTWAWKI (End of the world as we know it) opportunity.

The Euro can't get it up because of the focus (doesn't this ever get old?) on Greece. I say who cares about Greece, I'm more worried about Spain and Italy who can't seem to retrace more than 38.2% from the last down leg.

The VIX is way oversold here.

The NVI smart money indicators are a bit mixed across the indexes, but they are definitely slipping out the back door on small caps. But hey, the momentum indicators are overbought and prices eventually need to test the key moving averages.

JTH

03-19-2010, 01:29 PM

As Tom mentioned in one of his nightly blogs, this is a great chart to keep an eye on. If you look at the rise from the March bottom, you will see it is possible to stay at high levels for an extended period of time. However, excluding 2007-2010 this is not the norm.

SPXA50: The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average.

SPXA150: The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 150 day moving average.

SPXA200: The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average.

8715

tsptalk

03-24-2010, 01:19 PM

The VIX is up big today, but seems to have found resistance at the 20-day EMA near 18. If it breaks and closes above 18, this pullback could be for real. If not, just another hiccup for stocks.

Bullitt

03-24-2010, 07:03 PM

Let's just hope it goes over 18 before Monday comes.

Birchtree

03-24-2010, 07:29 PM

I predict you'll see a VIX below 16 in the next five trading days - then it might be time to worry.

JTH

04-07-2010, 10:30 AM

Anyone wanna play follow the leader?

8905

tsptalk

04-07-2010, 11:57 AM

Double top or breakout?

Frixxxx

04-07-2010, 11:59 AM

Double top or breakout?
I'm rooting for the breakout!:nuts:

JTH

04-07-2010, 12:09 PM

Double top or breakout?

I'm voting for an "against the crowd's thinking" breakdown, our leader has taken the stairs up and will now take the escalator down. Others will follow, we need a good test of the overbought moving averages. You may have noticed the news monkeys are bringing up the "Greece" word again. The Greece ETF still looks to be in the dumper, this ain't over yet...

Birchtree

04-07-2010, 12:23 PM

The VIX at 16.27 is getting ready to go negative - show me the 15 level and a rally - I'm ready to spend some mo money.

JTH

04-07-2010, 01:28 PM

The VIX at 16.27 is getting ready to go negative - show me the 15 level and a rally - I'm ready to spend some mo money.

The downside on the $VIX is slowing down, the lower lows are getting less low. Perhaps we've put in the last low for the year. and when that trendless 9.27 ADX crosses over the 16.48 +DI it won't be for the better.

JTH

04-15-2010, 09:52 AM

Tell me this is natural.

8970

nnuut

04-15-2010, 10:07 AM

Is it FOLLOW the LEADER?:worried:

WorkFE

04-15-2010, 10:08 AM

It is today?;)

Boghie

04-15-2010, 08:49 PM

Tell me this is natural.

8970

Ah, JTH,

You know we can't tell if we can't touch:nuts:

Birchtree

04-15-2010, 09:22 PM

You can tell in the bath tub.

JTH

04-15-2010, 09:44 PM

Ah, JTH,

You know we can't tell if we can't touch:nuts:

You can tell in the bath tub.

Dirty dirty minds yee have not fit for the wandering reader's eye of MyFairXcellentLady. Thy be scorned with the torch of the Moderator's sword-wielding electronic red pen.... :laugh:

nnuut

04-15-2010, 09:59 PM

Google earnings soar 38%

By Blake Ellis, staff reporterApril 15, 2010: 7:23 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Google posted quarterly sales and profit that trumped Wall Street expectations Thursday, boosted by a rebounding advertising market.
The search giant's net income was $1.96 billion, or $6.06 per share, in the first quarter, up 38% from $1.42 billion from the same period last year.
Excluding one-time charges, the Mountain View, Calif.-based company earned $2.18 billion in the first quarter, or $6.76 per share, up from $1.64 billion a year earlier. That easily beat analysts expectations, which called for earnings of $6.60 per share.

Google's revenue surged 23% to $6.77 billion. Excluding traffic acquisition costs, which are the advertising sales that Google shares with partners, the company reported sales of $5.06 billion, beating the $4.95 billion in revenue expected by analysts.
Sales were lifted by a recovering advertising market. [more]
http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/15/news/companies/google_earnings/index.htm

Boghie

04-15-2010, 10:23 PM

Ha,
JTH,
Just ha...

Me and Birch just cleared one Moderator:ban: :p

And, I still have one of Burrocrats 'Get Out of Jail Free' cards. :nuts:

JTH

04-15-2010, 10:46 PM

On the dollar do we have another bullish reversal tweezer bottom? Interesting on the last two days candlesticks we have the exact same high and low...

8994

Boghie

04-15-2010, 10:57 PM

This might hurt, but I have to let the market decide.

There are too many variables floating out there. Looks like the little investors are getting in. Cramer and the rest of the dummies are gobbling up year over year earnings. Looks like good earnings. Sort of, eh...

There are lots of little donations to be made :nuts:

Bullitt

04-16-2010, 01:23 PM

6 billion shares in the NYSE with almost two hours left on the clock and surprise surprise, it's another down day. What's that, 7 distribution days in the past 3 weeks?

Who am I kidding though when I speak with such an audaciously bearish swagger? With "Easy Money Monday" just hours away, we should buy, not sell on Fridays.

JTH

04-16-2010, 01:39 PM

From my post in BT's thread

Thanks BT, and yes I do believe those Transports are flooring me through the roof. One tidbit, tomorrow is Options expiration and the 11th trading day of the month. The 11th being statistically the most positive middle of the month day. Regardless, those two factors should make for an interesting exit for the week. As we know, positive Fridays tend to lead to positive Mondays followed by positive Tuesdays.

Once again I'll kindly remind everyone. Today is Options Ex, and along with that comes the volitility we are seeing today. I submit to you this is average, expected and we can still close flat to positive today.

FAB1

04-16-2010, 01:53 PM

Right on, deputy dawg

its pos-i-bull, its pos-i-bull

JTH

04-18-2010, 04:46 PM

I'm still up for a game of follow the leader, anyone else?

9036

alevin

04-18-2010, 05:02 PM

Nice chart, JTH.

nnuut

04-18-2010, 08:45 PM

Market Snapshot
April 17, 2010, 3:41 p.m. EDT
U.S. stocks to start new week with fresh perspective

Stock market finally finds a compelling reason to correct

U.S. stocks end lower on financials, Goldman scare (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-decline-after-six-sessions-of-gains-2010-04-16)
By Kate Gibson (kgibson@marketwatch.com), MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. stock market approaches the coming week from the perspective of a humbled perch, thanks to the volcanic eruption that hit Wall Street in the form of Securities and Exchange Commission charges against Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
"The market was starting to look for anything to correct on, and this was about as good as it could have gotten," Michael Church, president of Addison Capital Group, said of the SEC charges revealed early Friday. [more]
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-face-new-week-in-a-more-humble-mode-2010-04-16

Steadygain

04-27-2010, 08:13 AM

If the MARKETS respond to the more underlying fundamentals of Profits and Growing Jobs ~~ the kind of things that usually most boost the MARKETS ....

.....then the Outlook should be very Positive

I think the Media is making too much out of GS ~ and if we take a downturn I seriously doubt they have anything to do with it.

clester

04-27-2010, 08:28 AM

Will there be folks "buying the dip" again? Thats the question.

fedgolfer

04-27-2010, 10:42 AM

Will there be folks "buying the dip" again? Thats the question.

There appears to be room in the $emw rising wedge for more upside and really only one test of the support line, if it was redrawn on the GS-friday candle. But that may be risky too risky for some serioius dip-buying... the VIX spiked and appears like it could test the 50 DMA. Plenty of warning signs... sure looks and feels like January's top right about now.

Bullitt

04-27-2010, 11:41 AM

Buy the dip? Jeez. How much more risk are you guys looking to take on. Risk reward at this point is absolutely atrocious.

I think the media isn't making enough of a thing with GS and hasn't done it's part to expose the problems in Greece aka the 2010 version of Bear Sterns. Hey anybody got Dubai? Does anybody have any idea what kind of fraud and swindling is taking place right now or how bad things are in Greece? I don't, but it did take about 3 years for the unethical practices to come to the limelight with Goldman, Paulson, Magnetar, et al, so I can only imagine.

Goldman is just the media's reason for the selloff because they actually believe the information streamlined from the mutual fund companies and apparatchiks we have flooding today's system with my grand kids future. When will it end? We've already had the biggest rally in history, yet people want more more more.

China will grow the entire Milky Way even though the Russell 2000 is in blow off territory right now. Buy gold because deficits will cause hyperinflation in the US. It is now OK to get into the market because it is safe. :rolleyes:. Conventional wisdom at it's finest.

SDS showing good strength above the 20 DMA.

JTH

04-27-2010, 05:54 PM

I'll be watching these levels to identify the difference between a pullback and a correction.

9140

9141

JTH

04-28-2010, 11:53 AM

9162

JTH

05-03-2010, 05:32 PM

Just to tease the Bears, let's play follow the leader, and what does the leader have? An established rising trendline, a noticable increase in volume supporting rising prices, and a higher close. Does this look like the beginning of a pullback?

9242

Bullitt

05-06-2010, 06:24 AM

Transports breaking down, support is about 300 points below with 5 distribution days in the past 13 trading days. Not a bullish picture, but surely it's the process of handing off of shares from professional traders to the public.

The market is clearly in a downtrend with volume to the downside surging. Monday was a classic suckers rally with the market makers driving out short sellers on minuscule volume. Tuesday was a 90% downside day and the thing with those is, they are bullish if there is a bounce the next day. Well, I wouldn't consider most majors down .5-1% a bounce by any means. When a 90% downside day happens and selling ensues the following day, it means the selling pressure is building.

No this is not the time to buy stocks. No this is not the time to speculate on when the Euro will 'bounce'. No, I Fund is not a smart buy right now, especially with the tenacious blast thru the 50 DMA on high volume. The only hope for the I Fund is a double bottom, and that's going to take a few days to pan out.

Bullitt

05-27-2010, 09:53 AM

None of the majors are breaking their downtrends today no matter how many bulls it's fooling. Financials are still stuck below the 200 DMA, not good.

How much of this up day today (I have a hard time calling it a rally) has to do with short covering because a few overseas markets are closed on Friday and US is closed on Monday? How about the positive seasonality- that's playing a role today as well.

Bottom line: Markets rally 3% in bear markets. Sell in May worked this year.

fedgolfer

05-27-2010, 10:19 AM

we could be headed into a bear market but there are some solid technicals pointing to some future direction that have me stoked. One big one is the tranny price is now in the bull cloud, once in the cloud there is an 90% chance price will express itself on the top of that cloud in the near future. VIX ichimokus are about to go through the thin-line cloud. A bear could form but the technicals are pointing to some short term bullish surprise. Once a bigger red cloud starts forming in the front, meaning July (and it has on the tranny), we can see the bear as a much higher probability than the bull, but as of now, that cloud is still small, and if price goes north of the current cloud that future cloud gets smaller. If we fall on the south side of the current cloud, then, a bear is much more probable (which happened in July of '08, but still bounced up, before fulfilling the bear signal in the fall). FWIW, these are high probability plays even though it sounds like reading tea leaves.

But i'm not leaving the bear arguement out either in the short-term... there's a falling wedge that is pretty well defined and we're close to hitting the top line resistance. If I had lots of IFTs, i would be getting out 100% when we hit it. But, it'll only leave me w/ one buy in June if I do. But trying to save future IFTs hit me with -10% in May... yuck :) Lack of discipline.

Birchtree

05-27-2010, 10:37 AM

"With Jupiter and Uranus about to start a three passage conjunction with one another through early next year, it has been my thought that this will coincide with excessive speculation and hence 'bubbles' in financial assets." That means hot summer fun.

http://mmacycles.com

fedgolfer

05-27-2010, 10:44 AM

I also just dropped some friends off at the pool and the corn said BUY but the log said SELL.

Boghie

05-27-2010, 10:49 AM

Crappolla,

As negative as I am long term I could not enact another '<1%' IFT today because I did one yesterday. Nothing fractional to play with:p

We can make a little money on the 'Obama Economic Miracle' with a little swing dancing amongst the waves.

I think we can define the 'Obama Economic Miracle' as being a market range of S&P500 -44% through -27% from the recent evil Bush market highs. That gives swingers enough room to whoop-di-do their partners:nuts:

Bullitt

05-27-2010, 10:58 AM

Well best of luck to both of you, but I don't see anything bullish about the transports being 500 points from the top after putting in a series of lower lows/lower highs. Looks like Nasdaq either filled that gap I or has a little bit more gas left.

Volume is flat or down today, clear signs of a short covering rally.

Ichimoku: Sometimes the correct answers are one that are the simplest to explain. After reading countless books, I believe that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone.

Boghie

05-27-2010, 11:06 AM

Bullitt,

I love how we are now elated and relieved that a totalitarian backwater fascist state isn't going to dump European debt – or our own. A totalitarian backwater fascist state that does NOT have a transparent economy and whose finances are largely handled by wise socialist planners.

What could possibly go wrong?

This is a sad place to be.

Very sad

:worried:

tsptalk

05-27-2010, 01:07 PM

I get a kick out of the importance the CNBC folks (I know, I still tune in) put on the 10,000 Dow level. "The critical 10,000 level", as they say. What? We've gone above and below it so many times in the last 10 years that it appears to have no meaning at all. It's no different than 10,281 or 9,876.

That said, I know how tough it is to talk about the market every day, never mind every minute of the day, and actually have something to say. The fact is we usually don't know exactly why the market went up or down, except that more shares were bought or sold on that particular day.

That's why I like technical analysis over the fundamentals. To me, the market is rallying today because sentiment became extremely bearish and the market became extremely oversold. The media will just use the news of the day to justify the move.

fedgolfer

05-27-2010, 01:40 PM

watching to see if today is just gap fill action from 5/19's low. But, there's volume on the currency action... huge volume.

tsptalk

06-04-2010, 09:56 AM

The Dow Transports are down sharply today (2.6%) after hitting the 50-day EMA yesterday. This doesn't look good, but it hasn't broken down yet. Looks like it needs a reversal very soon to keep the "bounce" going.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/060410b.gif