Bounce Coming?

[tsptalk]

Dow Transports are up 4.4% right now. So tempting to use an IFT to buy this morning, but with only one buy per month, it's a very tough call.

[XL-entLady]

Dow Transports are up 4.4% right now. So tempting to use an IFT to buy this morning, but with only one buy per month, it's a very tough call.
I just saw this news story:


"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway said Tuesday it will buy railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $44 billion. Berkshire, which already has major stake in Burlington Northern, said it would acquire the remaining 77.4% of the company in a cash-and-stock offer worth $100 per share.

Widely regarded as both one of the world's richest men and the investment community's more brilliant minds, Buffett called his firm's investment an "all-in wager on the economic future of the United States."

"Our country's future prosperity depends on its having an efficient and well-maintained rail system," Buffett said in a statement."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/03/news/companies/buffett_burlington_northern/index.htm?postversion=2009110308

Buffett invests for the long-term, but the news also gave me a bigger comfort level in the intermediate term picture. I would probably dive back in to the markets this week but I'm about to embark on another 2-week business trip :notrust: so I may stay in the Garage while I'm on the road. :o

Lady

[tsptalk]

Thanks Lady. Buffett is on TV right now, but I hadn't heard that when I made the post.

Uh, oh. I took the plunge but I think I'd rather be a seller of an emotional spike like that. Still, several indicators are giving a short-term buy signal (oversold, ARMS, sentiment survey, some of trader fred's ETF's, etc.) Looks like I'm gambling for a few days (not much longer).

[JTH]

Thanks Tom, that is one rocket-ship-crazy-upside move :D

7137

[Birchtree]

Only about 60 points away from the 50-day. Perhaps we'll capture that back sometime this week.

[Steadygain]

Tom,
I was looking for your place ~~ so hopefully this is close enough. Anyway -- Excellent Positioning my friend -- you're playing like a Pro.

The thing about our current place is that we're within talking distance to Alevie and W-Va girl and shouting distance from Grandma. :D:D

That's how I see it !! It's not so much the 'numbers thing' it's way more --- Hey look where I am --- here's our good ole friends.

Well congratulations ! .... so far

[JimmyJoe]

I like using the seasonality estimates. Looking at it says we'll be getting a bounce next week.

[JimmyJoe]

To clarify, the seasonality bar chart on Tom's comment page is very useful as a predictor. Other tools/links on the TSP talk website provide the average trader ways to effectively make profits, if careful.

Using these tools I am estimating that the stocks are going up next week. Have a great weekend all.

[tsptalk]

Welcome JimmyJoe! Thanks for joining us.

To give credit where due, I get those charts from sentimentrader.com.

[JimmyJoe]

Yes,
The Sentimentrader.com I look at occasionally. Don't know if the Sentimental Survey is related but the Survey is now a great indicator and a top performer. so it is one of the tools that I use as a cross reference. Also the members of the TSP auto trackers I follow as a reference and to challenge myself.

It's all working now. I do keep a close eye on the markets so I don't get caught losing too much. But happily, now I keep a close eye on the markets because they are performing well as of the last 10 trading days. Nothing great but all those approximate 1 to 5 point gains are getting me back to where I was in 2008. Next week I'm looking for some S&P 10 point gains, if my assumptions are correct.

Good to be part of the TSPtalk members.

[Quickstrike]

I'm kinda new to reading the charts and stuff - so JimmyJoe, based on your assumptions, you are predicting the S&P 500 to make some gains next week? how close do you keep an "eye" on the markets? and would you care to share the resources you use?

Just curious...

Quickstrike

[Boghie]

I think that next week's normal market adjustments will be overcome by the political yak.

'The One' will be opening his mouth to support his Healthcare Reform. That will be bad enough. But, the opportunity will arise to denigrate business and clobber investment as a result of economic ignorance.

‘The Anti-Ones’ will be opening their yaks and demanding tax cuts in the face of $2 Trillion dollar deficits. The opportunity to denigrate gubmint employees will be just a bit too much to temper. They will be throwing tiles down from the ceiling of the Senate.

Standard market forces will not play a role for a while.

[JimmyJoe]

Quickstrike,
I don't look too much at the ema's yet. Don't quit understand them at this time although I think they would be helpful when I do. I just look at the TSP auto trackers and how they are positioned in funds. If the top 10 or 25 are mostly into the stocks, then so go I. If they start moving out to the G, then I guess I will. I also have a personal 'stop' so I won't lose as much as I did in 2008. But I really look at the monthly seasonality bar chart. It's a good indicator and it's up for next week. Lastly I look at the sentimental survey. It's at 10% right now.
So take a look at the top 25 of the TSP auto tracker. It's worked for me. At least I've made 4% this year. I think that's a good start. Besides, looking at others and how they're doing in comparison to me, challenges me.
This is mainly what I do. I also look at some other personal 'tea leaves' but they are slight weights probably. Hope this may help you and does not cost you. Have a great weekend and greater next week.