Stratfor Analysis

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091015_afghanistan_u_s_and_obamas_dilemma

Courtesty of

www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091013_economy_tempered_optimism

Courtesy of

www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091016_agenda_george_friedman

Courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Internal attacks on Iran...more pressure from within?

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091019_attacks_iran_and_conspiracy_claims

courtesy
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Iran supreme leader near death?

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091022_iran_supreme_leader_decline

courtesy,
www.stratfor.com

[Viva_La_Migra]

Iran supreme leader near death?

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091022_iran_supreme_leader_decline

courtesy,
www.stratfor.com (http://www.stratfor.com)
This will likely be cause for a civil war in Iran, where the Mullahs vie for the position of Supreme Leader.

[Buster]

Iran supreme leader near death?

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091022_iran_supreme_leader_decline

courtesy,
www.stratfor.com (http://www.stratfor.com)
Hallelujah..there truly is a GOD!........err, umm, I mean an Allah!:rolleyes:

[coolhand]

This will likely be cause for a civil war in Iran, where the Mullahs vie for the position of Supreme Leader.

I'm not so sure it would get that bad. That's why preparations are being made now. Their hierarchy is very complicated and there are a lot of tit for tat internal plays for sure. They are fractured just like our congress. I suppose some factions could square off and that could start a civil war, but I don't think there's a high probability of it escalating to that level.

But these things are constantly changing too, which is why intel is so important.

Of worse consequence for Iran is that three of their nuclear scientists defected recently. That's gotta be making them nervous as our intel just got a whole lot better.

[CountryBoy]

Thanks for sharing the Stratfor Analyses, they help give us a more worldly view of wnat forces could be playing on the world economy and possible stressors. Though they rarely have an immediate impact, it's more how things may face off down the road.

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091023_agenda_george_friedman

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091020_us_challenge_afghanistan

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091027_video_dispatch_search_european_president

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091026_russia_iran_and_biden_speech

[coolhand]

A Rebounding Jihad in Iraq

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091028_iraq_rebounding_jihad

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091028_video_dispatch_afghanistan_shift_taliban_ targets

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091029_video_dispatch_iran_plays_time

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Interesting take on BHO after 1st year since election.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091030_agenda_george_friedman

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

New battle for Pakistani President

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091102_video_dispatch_pakistans_president_faces_ fresh_political_battle

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Buying time

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091102_obama_and_us_strategy_buying_time

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Israeli weapons intercept.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091104_video_dispatch_israels_timely_interceptio n


courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[Birchtree]

Smart people realize this is happening all the time. Let the MEK have at the Iranians.

[Buster]

I think the US should back the hell out of the way of Israel and let them do what they do best...and that's kick some ass...We stood in their way when Iraq was launching Scuds at them..we said be patient and restrain your urges to slaughter Saddam..if we had let them do their thing, maybe we wouldn't have been in Iraq this long and Iran would still only be making flying carpets....

[coolhand]

Re: Opel sale - GM and Germany

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091104_video_dispatch_gm_germany_and_uncertain_f uture


courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[Bullitt]

I think the US should back the hell out of the way of Israel and let them do what they do best...and that's kick some ass...

Without the US, they'd be overrun.

Israel will always be our safehaven in a region of historical turmoil and US animosity.

[Viva_La_Migra]

Without the US, they'd be overrun.

Israel will always be our safehaven in a region of historical turmoil and US animosity.
The Jews are the chosen of God and, though they may be made to suffer at times, anyone who has gone against them has ultimately lost. From Egypt to Nazi Germany, anyone who has gone against the Jewish people have lost. I hope the U.S. never turns against, or abondons Israel. God will not look favorably on us.

[Buster]

The Jews are the chosen of God and, though they may be made to suffer at times, anyone who has gone against them has ultimately lost. From Egypt to Nazi Germany, anyone who has gone against the Jewish people have lost. I hope the U.S. never turns against, or abondons Israel. God will not look favorably on us.


Agreed..and exactly what I said..I however didn't say abandon them, I said get the hell out of their way and let them do what they do best..;)

[grandma]

The Jews are the chosen of God and, though they may be made to suffer at times, anyone who has gone against them has ultimately lost. From Egypt to Nazi Germany, anyone who has gone against the Jewish people have lost. I hope the U.S. never turns against, or abondons Israel. God will not look favorably on us.
yep !

Agreed..and exactly what I said..I however didn't say abandon them, I said get the hell out of their way and let them do what they do best..;)
and `Yep !' again !!!
God isn't going to let anything come in the way that can then be seen as a reason for Israel's win - He'll do it all; remember Gideon started out with 32,000 fighting men; when he got it sized down to 300 God was satisfied - and delivered Israel from the Mideonites.:D

[coolhand]

Israel and White House Intrigue

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091110_video_dispatch_israel_and_intrigue_white_ house

Courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Russian Clan War

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091111_video_dispatch_opening_shots_kremlin_war

Courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Reforming Russian Economy

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091112_video_dispatch_reforming_russias_economy

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Russian President's State of the State

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091112_video_dispatch_reforming_russias_economy

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Agenda: With George Friedman

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091113_agenda_george_friedman

courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Obama's Asia Trip

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091118_video_dispatch_sound_and_substance_obamas _asia_trip

Courtesy of:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

A Terrorist Trial in NYC

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091118_terrorist_trial_new_york_city

Courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Deciphering the Mohammed Trial

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/friedman_on_geopolitics

Courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Agenda with George Friedman

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091120_agenda_george_friedman

Courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

Iranian Sanctions and Strategy

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091123_sanctions_and_strategy

Courtesy:
www.stratfor.com

[coolhand]

The media is not paying any attention to this, but it has the potential to quickly escalate into a major problem for BHO.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091221_video_dispatch_death_grand_ayatollah_reig nites_protests

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091223_video_dispatch_iran_police_clash_proteste rs

[Silverbird]

What, that there's a problem with the sucession in Iran? That's good for BHO, isn't it, keeps those Iranian's busy. Not sure what the problem is with the protests, it shows how illegitimate the government in Iran has become. Of course they are going to blame it on us and the British, but that's getting up there with the North Korean government claming that the U.S. makes their electricity grid blink, Castro saying the U.S. is about to attack, Nicaragua bringing up another alleged plot every week...some governments are going to try to blame an untimely rain on us just because it's a freebie and costs nothing to do. Luckily the Blame on the U.S. game is getting really long in the tooth - actually we could call it dentures at this point.

More worried about the incursions into Iraq over oil fields in territory that Iran claims is under dispute, which, to be fair, is also under-reported, and Saudi Arabia fighting insurgents from Yemen and crossing into Yemen.

As for media attention, I have to go to BBC to get international news of ANY kind, good or bad (getting a British Bias, but I can't help that, it's better than World Focus). All I get from U.S. news is blah blah blah U.S. Blah Blah media star, blah blah Tiger Woods, blah blah pagans invading Christmas...

[coolhand]

What, that there's a problem in Iran? That's good for BHO, isn't it?

The Iranians have also taken control of some oil wells and have gone out of their way to make sure it was noticed. The nuclear deadline is fast approaching and Israel is beyond tired of the sanctions game.

There is also the Russian and Chinese interests at play here.

The worst case scenario is that internal and/or external forces have the potential to drag Iraq into this fray. To what extent is an unknown, but Iran is not going to go down without a fight should it get backed into a corner.

And neither is Israel.

It is anyone's guess how this plays out. If the regime senses that its internal situation is getting out of control it may lash out at external targets. See the problem?

[Silverbird]

Yes, things could very well blow up in the Middle East again. We do still have more assets in Iraq than we do in Afganistan -even with the surge. The question is how fast we could move them, and how long they've been in the field (far too long) can we move them - overworked, overdue and committed assets is a very bad place to be. And now that wars are on budget the numbers will be there for everyone to see. The volunteer army is recruiting, but the recruits these days are not up to the physical or educational demands on the whole. As for a draft, fergit it, that died with Vietnam - it'll never pass.

[Silverbird]

Iraq, Iran try to resolve border spat (CNN)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/12/23/iraq.iran.border/index.html

[coolhand]

Latest from Dr. George Friedman...

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091228_agenda_george_friedman

[phil]

One of the neocons who switched from former Soviet Union threats to Japanese economic threats, now shifting to Iranian nuclear threats. It's all about today, the now. Unfortunately, it all depends on where the money is going at the time, and lacks historical context. Soon, it'll be back to Russia again.

Unfortunately, nothing strategic on Yemen. That's from where the latest attacks on the US have emanated. Not Iran, not Iraq, not Afghanistan. That would have been nicer to know, don't we think? That would have been true value added to the American people.

However, I did agree with what he said about sending more forces to Afghanistan. Literally, we're not planning to win the war, but only to provide space for the Afghan government to build up forces.

I believe more than one person knew that a long time ago, that we couldn't win, not given the terrain.

[coolhand]

One of the neocons who switched from former Soviet Union threats to Japanese economic threats, now shifting to Iranian nuclear threats. It's all about today, the now. Unfortunately, it all depends on where the money is going at the time, and lacks historical context. Soon, it'll be back to Russia again.

Unfortunately, nothing strategic on Yemen. That's from where the latest attacks on the US have emanated. Not Iran, not Iraq, not Afghanistan. That would have been nicer to know, don't we think? That would have been true value added to the American people.

However, I did agree with what he said about sending more forces to Afghanistan. Literally, we're not planning to win the war, but only to provide space for the Afghan government to build up forces.

I believe more than one person knew that a long time ago, that we couldn't win, not given the terrain.

What I post here from Stratfor is only the free content. You have to pay for a subscription to get all the other stuff. The videos, while interesting and informative to some extent, only allude to what their service has to offer to private parties.

I'm sure the US has its own intel on these countries.

[coolhand]

Jihadism 2010

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100106_jihadism_2010_threat_continues

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100111_video_dispatch_revolution_reversal

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100112_video_dispatch_assassination_iran_0

[phil]

In this case, I don't buy that the people that did it were Iranian government. They're pretty good about arresting people. It's possible that it's an opposition group. The fact is that the Israelis want us to again do their dirty work for them in the region. Again. We need to ask ourselves as to who has the agenda.

No thanks. We don't need that. It is possible to have a nuclear Iran, in my opinion. No one really wants to talk about it, but it offers some balance in the region.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_o7gXK09VRI

[coolhand]

In this case, I don't buy that the people that did it were Iranian government. They're pretty good about arresting people. It's possible that it's an opposition group. The fact is that the Israelis want us to again do their dirty work for them in the region. Again. We need to ask ourselves as to who has the agenda.

No thanks. We don't need that. It is possible to have a nuclear Iran, in my opinion. No one really wants to talk about it, but it offers some balance in the region.



The jury is out as to how much involvement this scientist had with Iran's nuclear program. It appears he was mostly an academic, but we should hear more about this in the days and weeks to come.

[coolhand]

Google and China

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100113_video_dispatch_google_china_and_question_ risk

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100115_agenda_george_friedman

[phil]

Regrettably, the Iranians see their acquisition of nuclear weapons to be necessary for their security. They're right about that. Two of their close neighbors in the region, Pakistan and Israel, both have nuclear capabilities. They recognize that they're going to need them for their security, as both Israel and Pakistan have used surrogates in the past to push to the Iranian border.

No thanks. We don't need to send any messages to the Israelis. None whatsoever. In the end, we're going to leave Iraq. Hopefully, we'll also stop this useless alleged global war on terror. It's only succeeded in costing us more money than we have right now.

[phil]

Besides, there's been a lot of politicization of the NIEs, in any case. Case in point was the leak of the NIE in 2007, "undermining" another drumbeat to war. The administration had also become completely marginalized by that time.....for many reasons.

http://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2007/12/iran-nie-report.html

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Intelligence Council prepared a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Irans nuclear program entitled, Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities (http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf).
The previous NIE report issued in 2005 stated with "high confidence" that Iran had an active and on-going nuclear weapons program - but no actual evidence of that ever turned up. So now, the 2007 NIE report disowns that claim, and instead asserts that Iran used to have a nuclear weapons program until 2003, and could decide to restart it someday.
So here's my obvious question to the Director of National Intelligence: were you lying then, or are you lying now? If you were so wrong in the last report, why should anyone believe your latest report?
I have to ask because naturally, you can't expect the media to ask these sorts of questions - no, they're far too busy acting as government propaganda mouthpieces by uncriticially promoting the new NIE report.

This is a footnote from Perle's piece that I call: "we weren't the architects....really. There's no proof anyway, so there."

http://www.aei.org/article/29149

The undermining of the president by the CIA went well beyond Iraq to include, most blatantly, policy toward Iran, as the leak of a National Intelligence Estimate on December 3, 2007, shows. The authors of this estimate must have known its misleading headline that Iran had “halted” its nuclear-weapons program would cripple Bush’s effort to rally opposition to it.

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100118_red_alert

[phil]

Attacked the Serena again, and the ministry of Justice and the ministry of Defense. Multiple attacks INSIDE Kabul. Well, I guess we can start making some assumptions about goals here.

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100118_israel_turkey_and_low_seats

[coolhand]

Attacked the Serena again, and the ministry of Justice and the ministry of Defense. Multiple attacks INSIDE Kabul. Well, I guess we can start making some assumptions about goals here.

This was not the first time the Taliban demonstrated it could strike inside Kabul. However, Stratfor's assessment is that this latest attack was "underwhelming" and tactically "half-baked". The Afghan security forces proved they could provide reasonable defense as their security measures prevented the Taliban from smuggling in larger quantities of explosives, which could have caused much more damage. Areas under guard were also untouched by the Taliban.

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100120_profiling_sketching_face_jihadism

[phil]

There's a saying that the Taliban have: you westerners have watches, but we have time.

What we're doing here is redefining victory. Yes, they didn't succeed in blowing up the Presidential palace. Therefore, we've won a great victory? Make no mistakes, these guys (if they're Taliban) were able to penetrate the city and take out their targets. Of course they're not going to attack areas under heavy guard, until they can successfully bribe the guards.....or coerce them.


This was not the first time the Taliban demonstrated it could strike inside Kabul. However, Stratfor's assessment is that this latest attack was "underwhelming" and tactically "half-baked". The Afghan security forces proved they could provide reasonable defense as their security measures prevented the Taliban from smuggling in larger quantities of explosives, which could have caused much more damage. Areas under guard were also untouched by the Taliban.

[Silverbird]

More on Google:
Researchers [at Verisign] identify command servers behind Google attack
http://arstechnica.com/security/news/2010/01/researchers-identify-command-servers-behind-google-attack.ars

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100119_video_dispatch_yemens_fight_against_al_qa eda

[coolhand]

What's going on in Iran?

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100121_video_dispatch_unrest_iran

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100122_agenda_george_friedman

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100125_ukraines_election_and_russian_resurgence

[alevin]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100125_ukraines_election_and_russian_resurgence

Too bad Ukraine is such a linchpin. I have Ukrainian-heritage friends (2d generation) that are cold-enraged about Russian re-asserting political dominance over Ukraine. Have Lithuanian-heritage friends who are not happy either.

[coolhand]

Some analysis on the failed airline bombing and Al Qaeda.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100127_taking_credit_failure

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100126_video_dispatch_caucasus_web_alliances_and _animosities

[coolhand]

Uzbekistan and the Afghan Dilemma

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100128_video_dispatch_uzbekistan_and_afghan_dile mma

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100129_agenda

[phil]

My guess is that the Uzbeks are probably supporting Dostum inside Afghanistan, now that he's made his peace with Karzai during the last election.

The Afghan Uzbeks are usually represented by Dostum, a former Soviet supporter (communist), now allied closely to the Karzai government. Dostum probably executed a couple of hundred Taliban after the siege.

Late at night on 16 August 2009, Dostum made a surprise return from exile to Kabul to support President Hamid Karzai (http://www.tsptalk.com/wiki/Hamid_Karzai) in his bid for re-election. The next day, the last day of campaigning, he flew by helicopter to his northern stronghold of Sheberghan (http://www.tsptalk.com/wiki/Sheberghan), where he was greeted by 20,000 supporters in the local stadium. He subsequently made overtures to the United States, promising he could "destroy the Taliban and al Qaeda" if supported by the U.S., saying that "the U.S. needs strong friends like Dostum.

By the way, for a REALLY interesting story about Dostum's forces in Afghanistan, and about why we're having such difficulty now:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Kunduz

Inside the city, the Taliban reportedly hanged five of their own commanders who suggested surrendering to the Northern Alliance. Foreign fighters, fearing execution by the Northern Alliance, declared their intent to fight to the death.The foreign fighters began executing Afghan Taliban soldiers who considered surrender, killing 300 people.
Some of the foreign fighters, along with agents of the Pakistani ISI (http://www.tsptalk.com/wiki/ISI), were evacuated by Pakistani aircraft during the siege, in an event that has been nicknamed the "Airlift of Evil (http://www.tsptalk.com/wiki/Airlift_of_Evil)."

In 2008, more details have emerged in "Descent into Chaos" by Ahmed Rashid (http://www.tsptalk.com/wiki/Ahmed_Rashid):

One senior (U.S.) intelligence analyst told me, "The request was made by Musharraf to Bush, but Cheney took charge--- a token of who was handling Musharraf at the time. The approval was not shared with anyone at State, including Colin Powell, until well after the event. Musharraf said Pakistan needed to save its dignity and its valued people. Two planes were involved, which made several sorties a night over several nights. They took off from air bases in Chitral and Gilgit in Pakistan's northern areas, and landed in Kunduz, where the evacuees were waiting on the tarmac. Certainly hundreds and perhaps as many as one thousand people escaped. Hundreds of ISI officers, Taliban commanders, and foot soldiers belonging to the IMU and al Qaeda personnel boarded the planes. What was sold as a minor extraction turned into a major air bridge.

Uzbekistan and the Afghan Dilemma

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100128_video_dispatch_uzbekistan_and_afghan_dile mma

[phil]

Let's also not forget the Uzbek-Al qaeda links from before. Complicated. IMU has pretty much been destroyed, but there probably are some remnants in the FATA in Pakistan. Their connections with ISI are probably also long-term in nature. Prior to 9/11, the Pakistani's reach into Afghanistan and beyond was probably fairly extensive in the former Soviet central asian republics. Now......I guess they probably miss that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Movement_of_Uzbekistan

However, following 9/11 and the US-led coalition intervention in Afghanistan, the IMU was largely destroyed while fighting alongside the Taliban, and Namangani himself was killed. The IMU's fighters were scattered, with Yuldeshev and many others fleeing along with remnants of the Taliban to the tribal areas of Pakistan.
In September 2002 an aide to Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil, the Foreign Minister of the Taliban (http://www.tsptalk.com/wiki/Taliban), claimed he had been sent prior to 9/11 to warn the U.S. government of an impending attack and to persuade them to take military action against Al Qaeda's presence in Afghanistan. The aide claimed advance knowledge of the attack came from Yuldashev, which if true would indicate a high degree of cooperation between Al-Qaeda and the IMU

[phil]

Labas! I knew someone who had to periodically be carted off to jail for chaining herself to the gate at the former Soviet embassy in Washington years ago. The Lithuanian community kept sponsoring these events. I'm not sure if that ended up on her record as a felony. It's why the global war on terror has always troubled me so much.


Too bad Ukraine is such a linchpin. I have Ukrainian-heritage friends (2d generation) that are cold-enraged about Russian re-asserting political dominance over Ukraine. Have Lithuanian-heritage friends who are not happy either.

[phil]

Interesting video.

http://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com/2010/01/31/peter-dale-scott-the-war-machine-is-the-mindset-in-washington/

Also references The Forty Years War by Colodny and Schachtman. His idea is that the biggest issues in the Washington mindset are economic, not ideological. Ideology is where the neocons were based. Talks a bit about what's happening in Afghanistan, from the Washington perspective.

http://themediavore.com/mediavore/2009/12/02/anthony-cordesman-on-afghanistan/

Cordesman predicts more casualties in Afghanistan.

[coolhand]

Power Crisis for Hugo

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100202_video_dispatch_power_crisis_venezuelas_ch avez

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100201_defensive_buildup_gulf

[coolhand]

Iranian Proxies

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100203_iranian_proxies_intricate_and_active_web

[phil]

Yes, Iran has relations with a lot of groups in the middle east. They also have embassies in most of the world, with the exception of a few countries in Africa and the United States. The US is the only major power without formal diplomatic relations.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iranian_diplomatic_missions_updated.PNG

[coolhand]

Germany's Choice...

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100208_germanys_choice

[coolhand]

The Jihadist CBRN Threat...

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100210_jihadist_cbrn_threat

[coolhand]

Iranian Anniversary...

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100211_video_dispatch_anniversary_and_nuclear_st atements_iran

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100216_meaning_marjah

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100217_video_dispatch_tradecraft_dubai_assassina tion

[grandma]

from IsraelNationalNews.com this morning (Wednesday)
.

Mabhouh Assassins Used Identities of Living Israelis
by Gil Ronen http://www.israelnationalnews.com/static/pictures/resized/136-106/41/41303.jpg

Melvyn Adam Mildiner, a British citizen residing in Beit Shemesh, was shocked when he learned Tuesday that one of the alleged assassins of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh used a name which is identical to his.

However, Mildiner's face as it was presented by Dubai Police, based on closed camera photographs, looks nothing like the real Mildiner.

"I am obviously angry, upset and scared - any number of things. And I'm looking into what I can do to try to sort things out and clear my name," he told the Reuters news agency in a telephone interview. “I woke up this morning to a world of fun,” he said sarcastically. “I want to clear my name.”

Britain said Tuesday that the British passports that served six of the alleged assassins were apparently fake. Ireland has said that the three Irish passports used by the killers were forged.

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100218_video_dispatch_covert_operation_and_diplo matic_blowback

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100218_visa_security_getting_back_basics

[coolhand]

The Utility of Assassination

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100222_utility_assassination

[coolhand]

Good read here.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100301_thinking_about_unthinkable_usiranian_deal

[coolhand]

Some EU economic analysis here...

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100315_germany_mitteleuropa_redux

[Silverbird]

Some EU economic analysis here...

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100315_germany_mitteleuropa_redux
Now that's interesting - it appears to me Greece and the other "PIGS" (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) have an even better deal than China. China may be able to control its currency, but it has to keep buying $ to keep it where it is. The PIGS, it appears, just ride on the Euro's coattails. Am I correct in this? It will be interesting to see if Germany can do something about this.

[coolhand]

Now that's interesting - it appears to me Greece and the other "PIGS" (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) have an even better deal than China. China may be able to control its currency, but it has to keep buying $ to keep it where it is. The PIGS, it appears, just ride on the Euro's coattails. Am I correct in this? It will be interesting to see if Germany can do something about this.

I think you're correct. Here's a video release from today regarding the issue:

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100317_video_dispatch_germanys_line_sand

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100319_agenda_rodger_baker

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100324_quick_take_al_qaeda_arrests_saudi_arabia

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100325_video_dispatch_debt_crisis_and_fault_line s_europe

[coolhand]

Good analysis here on Israeli/US relations...

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100326_agenda_george_friedman

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100324_jihadism_and_importance_place

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100329_video_dispatch_moscow_bombings_and_butter fly_effect