Neirbod Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Discuss Neirbod's strategies, transactions and returns here.

[neirbod]

After a few months of lurking here, and occassionally posting, I decided to post my transactions for all to see. I am definitely an amateur! I'm 37 and have only been seriously putting money into TSP for around 3 years. I had been just buying and holding a mix of C, S and I until this summer, after I found this site. Tom, if yor goal was for people to take a more active approach to their investing, it worked for me!

To summarize my recent transactions to date, I rode the wave in October and November, trying to play a few wiggles but staying mostly 100% invested in C, S, and I. I jumped to the G fund last Friday, and have been there until today.

Before the deadline yesterday, I made a trade to 30% G, 20% C, 30% S and 20% I. I was expecting that today's oil inventory report will show a big increase due to mild temps and no major disruptions on oilsupplies recently, and that this would result in some gains. Looks like by dumb luck I may have played this right, given the drop yesterday and what I hope is a bounce today.

I still think there will be more pullback after today before the rally continues. I will pull back a bit tomorrow, but am following Tom's lead and not getting out of stocks entirely during this run.

Thanks to all, and especially Tom, for sharing their thoughts and insights. I welcome your feedback and criticisms of my moves. Please be gentle :^

Today 30 G, 20 C, 30 S, 20 I
Tomorrow 60 G, 10 C, 20 S, 10 I

[neirbod]

I amstaying with 60 G, 10 C, 20 S, 10 I until Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the deadline Tuesday, I'll move to 100% stocks to take effect Wednesday. Probably 60 C, 30 S and 10 I. Barring any major events, I'll likely stay with that allocation until after the new year.

[Rod]

Your new allocation for tomorrow is similar to what I plan on doing... SOOO you better NOT do it!!!:shock:

Just kidd'n!:D

Good move... I hope for BOTH our sakes!:^

[vectorman]

Observation: The first three times that the Feds raised interest rates this year the market fell for a few days starting the day after theaction. Find the dates and then go to the TSP site and check share prices to see for yourself. The last time the Feds raised rates, the following two days the markets rallied, go figure.

[neirbod]

Decided to jump in a little earlier thanI had planned. Given the Fed is 99% sure to raise interest 1/4 point tomorrow, I figure the real story is the language of the report. I'm betting it will be positive, and that the market will respond positively. We'll see about that.

More importantly, after reviewing my trades over the past few months I am now thinking I should play longer trends and not worry about the wiggles too much, especially in the midst of a good run. So, I am just jumping back in with both feet and effective tomorrow. I will likely stay with tomorrow's allocation for at least a couple of weeks, and reconsider shortly after the new year.

I am also keeping some money in I. I think the dollar could drop some more, so I don't want to bail on I entirely just yet.

Today 60 G, 10C, 20S, 10I

Tomorrow 40C, 40S, 20I

Good luck all, and especially Rod! ;)

[neirbod]

I am back from a week off andI am making a move to put more into the I fund. Iam concerned that I am "buying high" into the I fund. But, I think the market overall will continue to rally for at least a week or two, and that the dollar will continue its slow decline, making the I fund a good bet.

Today: 40 C, 40 S, 20 I
Tomorrow: 25 C, 25 S, 50 I

[neirbod]

I just cancelled my request for a transfer today. The C and S funds are dipping late this morning. If this holds I expect they will both bounce back in a day or two. So, I am cancelling my interfund transfer. I will wait for a better moment to make my move.

Today: 40 C, 40 S, 20 I
Tomorrow: 40 C, 40 S, 20 I

[neirbod]

Now making my move to the I fund. Glad I held off on my move to the I fund yesterday. The C and S funds are up significantly more than the I fund this morning. Seems like today is a better time to move the move.

I also think tomorrow's report on existing home salesmay show more weakness, putting pressure on U.S. stocks and thedollar. Even if that part doesn't pan out, I think the I fund has more to rally, as the dollar continues to fall, and I want a bigger piece of the action.


Today: 40 C, 40 S, 20 I
Tomorrow: 20 C, 30 S, 50 I

[neirbod]

I am making a short term move out of the I fund. The dollar is dropping significantly again today, and the I fund looks to be heading for a fairly strong close. I am concerned that the dollar may rebound temporarily early next week once more traders come back from vacation and rethink the steep decline over the past weeks. So, I am moving to 60 S and 40 Ceffective Monday. I'll probably jump back in to the I fundfor Tuesday or Wednesday, assuming any upturn in the dollar will be a quick "correction" and short lived.

I may not be able to make move tomorrow, so I am doing it today after the deadline so it will take effect Monday

Today and tomorrow 20 C, 30 S, 50 I
Monday 40C, 60 S

Happy New Year to all!

Dave

[neirbod]

This has been a rough 3 days. Made a move just before the deadline today to lighten up on the S fund. I keep expecting a rebound, but it just isn't happening yet. I am still keeping some in S in expectation that it will bounce back some, but I am thinking that now is the time to start leaning more heavily on C and I. The dollar has rallied some, bringing the I fund down, and I now expectthe dollarwill continue downward.

Today: 40 C, 60S
Tomorrow: 40C, 30S, 30 I

[neirbod]

I'm backing off. I rode out the recent dip, and now have made back most of the loss incurred since the new year. With February historically not good for stocks, and with the economy still pretty anemic, I figure it is time to step back a bit. I am also not convinced tomorrow's jobs report will be as rosy as some seem to think.

My plan for the next few months is to buy into small dips (2-3%) and sell on small peaks (2-3%) and see where that takes me. I think we could be in for a series of ups a downs overcycles of several weeks, like we saw for much of last year.If I'm right, my strategy should work prety well.

I still think we are in for some more growth, so Iwon't back off entirely.Until I see evidence of a bear market, I'll keep at least 50% in stocks at all times. I will also take this opportunity to rebalance my stocks. I am dropping the S fund, figuring the C should do at least as well, and eventually better as the year goes on. I will also put more into the I fund since the dollar in in a recent rally, and I think it is short-lived.

Today: 40 C, 30 S, 30 I
Tomorrow: 50 G, 20 C, 30 I

[neirbod]

I am easing back into more stocks. Looks like the current rally may continue for a while. I know everyone is waiting on Greenspan's comments, so the timing of this move is a gamble. But, I am betting that Greenspan will not say anything to spook investors, and the market will not suffer. Also, I am only going from 50% G to 30% G, so this is just sticking my toe a littel deeper in the water.

Also, I am putting proportionally more into the I fund. I figure my I fund contributions will slowly increase over the next few months. I don't think the dollar will rise much more, and think a downturn is very possible.

Disclaminer - I have been very bad at timing lately, so follow my lead at your own risk!

Today: 50 G, 20 C, 30 I
Tomorrow: 30 G, 30 C, 40 I

[neirbod]

I am shifting 20% of my funds from I to S effective COB today. I don't expect this will last more than a few days. I am expecting a bounce from the S and C funds, and perhaps a correction to the I fund. If the C and S make a good bounce, I'll quickly sell both. For the longer term, I plan to put most of my funds into G and I. I just don't see the S and C keeping up with I given the current climate.

Today: 30G, 30 C, 40 I
Tomorrow: 30G, 30 C, 20 S, 20 I

neirbod wrote:
I am shifting 20% of my funds from I to S effective COB today. I don't expect this will last more than a few days. I am expecting a bounce from the S and C funds, and perhaps a correction to the I fund. If the C and S make a good bounce, I'll quickly sell both. For the longer term, I plan to put most of my funds into G and I. I just don't see the S and C keeping up with I given the current climate.

Today: 30G, 30 C, 40 I
Tomorrow: 30G, 30 C, 20 S, 20 I

I agree with your thoughts but don't feel that the bounce in Sis worth going crazy over.

[neirbod]

Saraho,

I'm not expecting much out of the bounce, either. If we get a decent bounce by the deadline I will sell today and hide out in the G fund for a while. I'm trying to stay away from playing these short-term moves (since I tend to get burned), but this one felt like it was worth a shot.

I really like the prospects for I down the road, but I do expect some kind of pullback shorter term. If/when that happens, I'll go heavy into I, as much as 100%.


Edit: The CPI just came in and looks to be reassuring for investors. Looks like S maydowell today. Now if we can just get oil prices to fall....

[neirbod]

Making a transfer to 100% G effective COB today. I've had a pretty good run this week, and today looks to post solid gains. I still don't see any evidence that the market will go much higher, however. Employment and corporate profits arestill pretty anemic. So, I am lockiing in my gains and will look for either a dip to jump back in.

Earlier I said I would keep at least some funds in stocks until I saw evidence of a bear market. Given the recent info in this forum and elsewhere, I think we may either coming toa bear market, or at least will just vacillate for a while. So, I will make the safer move and pull out 100% to G for now. If we get a decent dip in the I fund,I will go heavy into the I fund next time I get back into stocks.

Today: 30 G, 30 C, 20 S, 20 I
Monday: 100 G

[neirbod]

I am making a move to the I fund. Looks like the I fund will end lower today. Also, the dollar rallied the past couple of days, and I am betting it will fall again soon, or at least not rally much higher. Lastly, oil just jumped on the new inventory report. I expect this will put pressure on stockstoday. But, with winter winding down, I can't see oil going much higher and expect to see a drop in the near future as forecasts call for warmer weather.

I am taking this opportunity and making a move to the I fund today before the deadline.

Today: 100 G
Tomorrow: 100 I

[neirbod]

Going to lock in some of today's gains, and will jump back in to the I fund at the next dip.

Today 100 I
Monday 100 G

[neirbod]

The EAFE is selling off a bit. Likely some profit taking from Friday's great run, combined with the dollar bouncing back somewhat. I think we could see further selling, but with the long-term trend of the I fund still heading up I don't want to get too cute. So, I am taking advantage of this little dip to get back in.

Today: 100 G
Tomorrow: 100 I

[MacKenzieiii]

I also am looking to buy on the dip of the I fund that seems to happening today.

[Rod]

Please be careful though. Just because the EAFE is down, doesn't always mean the (I) will be down. I'm learning to look at the bigger picture of how the European/Asian markets performed.

So far, today seems to be mixed. So IMHO, the (I) can go either way.

I wish you the best & God Bless:^

[vectorman]

Rod wrote:
Please be careful though. Just because the EAFE is down, doesn't always mean the (I) will be down. I'm learning to look at the bigger picture of how the European/Asian markets performed.

So far, today seems to be mixed. So IMHO, the (I) can go either way.

I wish you the best & God Bless:^

Down or up the I fund for the last three years continues its upward climb. Very consistent for those who have gone long. $$$$$$$$$

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA

[neirbod]

I am starting to think I should just go long on the I fund. I've been actively managing my TSP account for around 8 months now. I played a few short term moves well, but screw up nearly as much. I always test my return against what I would use as a long-term buy and hold just to see how my efforts at playing the wiggles works. So far, I would have been slightly better off in 2004 and 2005 had I just bought and held. Live and learn.

[vectorman]

neirbod wrote:
I am starting to think I should just go long on the I fund. I've been actively managing my TSP account for around 8 months now. I played a few short term moves well, but screw up nearly as much. I always test my return against what I would use as a long-term buy and hold just to see how my efforts at playing the wiggles works. So far, I would have been slightly better off in 2004 and 2005 had I just bought and held. Live and learn.
neirbod I learned that lesson the hard way last year. I thought I would try to be smart by getting out on the dips, and moving back and forth between funds. While thismethod seems good on the surface and some can handle it.It's time consuming ( keeping up with whats going on in the US and world markets), frustrating ( especially whenyou miss out on a rally), andto some all consuming. It's easy to develope a divided mind. You watch the markets constantly; you wonder how you can make a new move in your funds to make up for a missed rally;you kick yourself for not pulling or pulling the tigger on a move that either lost or could have made you alot of money. And nothing is more important than making that dreaded TSP twelve o'clock dead line, where you hopeyou can get in and the new transfer will go through. Sounds like a gambler, huh. If one is not careful, that's the lifestyle that one can easily get sucked into. The trend is your friend. The I fund has been trending up for three years, even with the ups and downs. I learned from watching Rolo, that much can be gained with making very few moves and having alot more patience.Even with the corrections in the C, S, and I funds for the last 2 1/2 years, I would have done better for myself, with less frustration, with fewer moves and more patience. Sorry for the book on your acct talk, but I can relate to what you said above. In the end, with the knowledge from the site from others, I learned to manage my TSP account more wisely and I promised myself that I would never again let my fundstake a major hit like I didfrom 2000 to 2003. I'm now not a long term buy and holder, but a long term trend watcher. Good luck.

[neirbod]

Vectorman,

Thanks for the thoughtful advice. It is appreciated. I still have at least 20 years before retirement,and I am using this time to learn all I can and to try out different approaches to managing my TSP account. Given what I have witnessed in my own account these past months, I am beginning to think along your lines. Iwill ignore the day to day fluctuations and focus on longer term trends for a while and see where that takes me.

Dave

[nnuut]

Amen Vectorman, i've been thinking along the same lines,but would just HATE to be caught in a Big drop because I wasn't paying attention. In early 2003 I was frustrated and left lots of dough in the "G" fund, wasn't even checking! Missed the biggest part of the yearend rally (Big One), now i'm GUNSHY as all Hell :'

[Gritz]

Ditto nnuut, Excellentadvice Vectorman; I too got burned from the theory of "put it in the c fund and let it ride, you've got 20yrs, the ups and downs will work out to your favor"...assuming the market keeps on going as it had prior to the 2000-2003 periods. Of course, part of that theory was broughtabout by the difficulty of making an interfund transfer.

Now, within 2 yrs of having the 20, I'm prone to be more involved; especially, to try and make up for some major lapses in 2001/2002...not sure it'll will work out any better, BUT Vectorman has hit on a good signal/truth - be invovled, and yes it does pay, to be "a trend watcher" versus the old axim of put it in and let it ride.

For what it's worth, I would also add for anyonebeginning their career with the gov/thrift, that at a minimum, as soon as possible, you be fully contributing to meet your agency's matching, after that thereare many opinions as to how much to contribute in thrift versus private investing. I have a buddy who recently wanted some advice about retiring early and after looking at his pension plans it's a good thing he has prior military time because for his 20 yrs in his current fed job he only has been putting in 3%, ouch! soc. sec. might outdohis thrift.

Good hunting Neirbod, you're apparantly well informed and involved, and you 've got some sound advice from others all over this site.

[neirbod]

Making a move. The I fund dipped below the 10-day MA yesterday, and so far there is no bounce from yesterday's fall. The S and C funds were just below the 10-day MA, and look like they may cross over it today. In addition, the dollar is rallying. I don't expect it to rally for long, but for now it is going up.

So I am moving some funds from I to S and C. I am also taking a more defensive posture and moving some funds to G.

I expect to get back to 100 I shortly, as I still think this is the best default allocation for the forseable future.

Today: 100 I
Tomorrow: 40 G, 20 C, 20 S, 20 I

[neirbod]

Putting some funds into G for today worked out. I may even get the penny:^ Putting some funds into C and S did not work out so well:( That'll teach me to go back on my medium term plan of using only I or G funds.

I am going 100 I again effective COB today. Two reasons: looks like the dollar's rally was very short lived, and I see it going down some more in coming days and weeks. Second, yesterday there was a big difference between the I fund and the EAFE. EAFE showed a loss of 0.62%, while the I fund gained 0.31%. That's nearly a 1% swing, and is not common. I have gone through the data as far back as I can, and see that such a big discrepancy is usually followed by a comepensatory discrepancy. That is, I expect the I fund to gain significantly less than the EAFE today, offering a good opportunity to buy back in. That being said, my charts show that 1) this is not true all the time, and 2) even when it happens, sometimes it takes 2 days. Still, I am taking the chance.

Today 40 G, 20 C, 20 S, 20 I
Tomorrow 100 I

[neirbod]

I have been travelling a lot and negelected updating my postings for some time. I have made several moves, and managed to catch a little of the recent rally. Currently I am sitting at 100 G.

[neirbod]

Hoping to catch a bounce tomorrow. Hoping the dollar will continue to drop, so putting a good chunk into I.

before deadline, went to:

30 C, 30 S, 40 I

[Birchtree]

Neirbod,

Finally someone other than mfm6376 who snorts instead of clucks. Nice to meet you.

Yes I think we are putting in a base today for a run up out of our current trading range to penetrate Dow 10940 and sp500 of 1260. I think most of our participants are watching to see if I get hit by a bus when trying to cross the street. Never going to happen as long as I look both ways. Head fakes are always interesting - sharp but relatively painless.

[neirbod]

Hi Birchtree,

I agree with you that, barring a major event, the upward trend should continue for a while. There are certainly warning flags, but earnings are good and I do think the economy is steadily improving. If today's decline continues, I expect we will see a good bounce tomorrow.That being said, Iwould not be surprised by a short-term pullback. I may jump out again tomorrow if we get the bounce, or I may just wait it out and ride any downturn given I don't think it will be severe. still debating that one.

Dave

[neirbod]

With September typically a bad month for stocks, together with the gas hikes and other effects from Katrina, I am locking in some gains. I had 40% in I, which really helped the past few days. I went 100 G before the deadline. I'll probably stay here for a while until the smoke clears on the long-term effects from the hurricane and flood.

[neirbod]

Moved to 50 C and 50 I before the deadline. A risky move before the hurricane, but I am hoping that the market has factored in the worst of the potential damage, or will have done so by the end of the day. Seems like the indicators are pointing toward an oversold position, so if the hurricane is not worse than expected we could get a decent rally soon. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Also, the dollar jumped today vs. the euro. I think this is short lived and want to be in the I fund if the dollar drops back.

I'll probably stick with this allocation, or at least 100% stocks, for at least a few weeks.

[neirbod]

The C fund looks to be petering out. With continued oil worries and upcoming post-hurricane financial reports, I am joining with those who anticipate a downturn. So, moving my C fund to G fund today.

I considered bailing out of stocks entirely, but decided to stay with my 50 % I. With the dollar at a recent high, I expect it will turn down and help to defray any downturn in foreign stocks.

Went 50 G, 50 I before the deadline

[neirbod]

getting back in 100%. I still believe the dollar will fall again, despite its recent rally. So, I am putting most into the I fund.

by COB, 35 C, 65 I

[neirbod]

I'm one of those expecting the dollar to fall again. Putting it all into I.

Went 100% I before deadline

[nnuut]

Ouch!!!

[neirbod]

???

Scratching my head on that last comment. Maybe you think the dollar is going to contiune up. Sure, I could be wrong on the dollar, but my belief is that it has a lot more room to drop than it does to gain strength.

[nnuut]

I agree NB but I don't know when. Looks like Europe might be raising the Prime soon, and YES that will do the trick. Good thinkin', but don't know about the timing? Some are going to the "I" today to play the Bounce, you are probably right on. What do I know anyway?:^

[neirbod]

Went 100% G before the deadline.

A big drop in oil, and only a modest increase in share prices, makes me think this rally needs a rest. This will be a short term move, perhaps only a day if we get a good drop tomorrow. When I get back in, I will diversify into some mix of C, S, and I.

I think the Santa Claus rally will be in full effect this year, with falling gas price making folks feed good and spending their $$. That being said, I think the good vibes be short lived and I will likely jump ship late December in anticipation of the fallout from sticker shock on people's Visa and heating oil bills.

Happy Thanksgiving, all!

Dave

[neirbod]

Jumping back in. I still expect a pull back, but I am not confident I can time it well enough to risk missing out on a continued run. I will take the 1% or so I "gained" by avoiding the recent big drop, and go back to my medium to long term approach. I still think the I fund will take off soon, but given the timing is very iffy, I diversified.

Hoping Greg is right about a correction today that will make the I fund cheap!

Went 20 C, 30 S, 50 I before deadline

Dave

[neirbod]

This rally might be running low on steam. Good job report and the market is just see-sawing. So, I am backing out (partially), expecting a small pull back early next week. With this bull run in full gear, I won't get too cute. This will almost certainly be a quick move, and I'll be back in by the end of the week.

I am staying 50% in I.I don't want to get out of stocks more than 50% while we areriding such a great wave. Plus, I am still expecting the dollar to drop, so I want to hold my I fund shares while they are relatively cheap. The drop could be next week, or February, but I do expect it to happen, and it possibly could be very quick so I don't want to miss it.I can be patient as long as the I fund is not showing signs of a big drop.

Went 50 G, 50 I before the deadline

[neirbod]

Just realized I never posted my last move here: 50 S and 50 I before the deadline on 12-5. I did post this in my account thread.

I am moving more $$ into I. Looks like the dollar has topped out, and has begun to decline. I expect this trend will continue over the next weeks to months, and I wanta good chunk in I to take advantage.

The remainder of my $$ is going to C. It is undervalued relative to the other funds, so it seems to have room to catch up.

COB today: 30 C, 70 I

[neirbod]

Taking a more defensive position. Still want to keep my finger in stocks, and still like the I fund given I expect the dollar to fall again.

Before deadline, went:

30 G, 30 F, 40 I

[neirbod]

I am moving more into stocks. I may very well get caught in a short-term downturn, but I don't think it makes sense to fight the strong upward momentum of this market. I am playing medium-term trends (e.g. weeks), so am not worried about daily swings up or down.

I am keeping some in F for relative safety. I will eventually move more into I, but right now I think the other funds may outperform I for a while.

before deadline went:
20 F, 30 C, 10 S, 40 I

[neirbod]

I just realized I never updated this thread in February. I have been 30 C, 20 S, and 50 I for about a month. I mad the change in my account thread, but not here.

I am still holding at 30 C, 20 S, and 50 I. I have made a very conscious effort not to chase after daily or even weekly wiggles over the past few months. It takes a lot of discipline for me *not* to make more moves. But, I see in the monthly tracker the same info I have read about elsewhere: more moves generally results in poorer returns. Not for everyone, and there are some here who do nearly daily trades and do it very well. I just learned that I am not one of them!

In the ongoing quest for my ideal strategy, I am now following an adapted version of the old adage "sell in May and go away." That is, I will tend to be "all in" during the historically solid months of Octiber through April, then adopt a more defensive, and likley active, posture in the summer months as a try to play shorter term movements. That being said, I still watch the markets and have an exit strategy if they start to tank at any time.

Time will tell how this works out.

Dave

[neirbod]

Despite my previous post, I decided to take some money off the table for what I think will be a short term move. I have made some nice gains, and the inflation reading was very good. Seems like there will be some good gains today. I think we'll continue on up, but I think there could be some profit taking in the next few days.

I still am most enamored by the I fund, so I am keeping some money in play.

COB today:
40 G, 30 F, 30 I

[neirbod]

We didn't get the pull back I was expecting the end of last week, but things seem to be levelling off. I still think a short-term sell off in in the cards, hopefully (for me) it is today.

Either way, I am beting that we'll have good inflation numbers tomorrow, and I want to be in to catch the expected rise, especially in the I fund. If we get a decent sell off today, I will likely stay in stocks a while longer. If we don't see a sell off today, I may run to the exits in the next day or two. I think we have substantially more to rise, but we need some selling to get folks off the sidelines and buy the dip.

COB today:
70 I, 30 S

[neirbod]

I am stepping aside. As we head toward the historically weaker time of the year, I will begin taking a more defensive stance. We have had a good run these past months, and some nice (but choppy) movement recently. With oil heading higher, and Iran making noise, I fear we could head lower next week. I think tomorrow should be ok, barring any major bad news, as the quarter is ending and there may be some window dressing to keep the market up. Once the new quarter begins, who knows?

Going 70 G 30 F COB *tomorrow* (I won't be online tomorrow, so I am making the move now after today's deadline.

Dave

[neirbod]

Dipping a toe back in. Hoping that any damage from the poor oil inventory report will be done by COB today. The I fund could be ripe for a bounce, so I am putting some into I. My strategy is to be more agressive in historically strong months, and April qualifies. If we had this same situation in May, I'd stay clear. Even so, I am very skittish about the market, so I am still keeping most of my money in G and F.

35 G, 30 F, 35 I

[EW_ret]

Just to let you know you have an error in your Account thread. It states IFT going to 5% G, 30% F, and 35% I.

[neirbod]

Fixed it. Thanks!

[neirbod]

Not looking good so far today. Looks like my move into I was ill-advised. But, the day is young, so who knows. Either way, I'm backing out to get the expected penny in G Monday. Happy easter to all!

today: 100 G

[neirbod]

Going 100% F COB today.

[neirbod]

Haven't made many moves lately. But, with the economy slowing, and rate hikes potentially near an end, I am moving all of my stock funds into I in hopes of a continued falling dollar. I am keeping 30% in F for relative safety and hoping for a decent return if people get skittish about stocks.

COB today:
70% I, 30% F

By the way, I noticed I did not update my account talk after my last move. I have been sitting at 30 F, 20 C, 25 S, and 25 I since May. I did update my account moves thread, just forgot to do it here.

[neirbod]

Anticipating some short term profit-taking, so am playing some defense. Was tempted to go 100 G, but I do think we could be at the start of a long term rally so I don't want to get too cute. I don't see the dollar falling much further in the short term, so I will also diversify my stocks.

COB today:
30 G, 20 F, 15 C, 15 S, 20 I

[neirbod]

I figure if there is significant profit taking from the recent rally, it could happen later today. If not, it could be a good sign of things to come. So, I am going a little less defensive. I also will probably avoid G in the near future and use the F fund for relative safety, as I think F will outperform the G fund with interest rates apparently staying put for the time being. I used some G yesterday to try to get that penny.

COB today:
30 F, 15 C, 20 S, 35 I

[neirbod]

The housing data are scary. People will start to feel poorer, and may spend less. That, combined with Fed talk of more rate hikes and the seasonal weakness, make me want to play a bit more defense. Given the Fed talk, F fund may be less attractive than I previously thought. So, using G and F, with a little in I.

COB today:
40 G, 30 F, 30 I

[neirbod]

I still am worried about housing and a slowing economy. But, the strong seasonal trend before the holiday, and the reduced inflation fear, has me making a quick move into stocks. I anticipate I will take some more off the table next week to avoid the historically poor market in September.

COB today
30 C, 30 S, 40 I

[neirbod]

Today could be some decent gains, but the market looks like it really needs a rest. Stepping aside for a little while

COB today
50 G, 50 F

[neirbod]

Tough call what to do. I missed the last few days of rally, and I do think a small pull back could come soon. But, my timing has been pretty bad lately, and I do think we will go significantly higher in the next couple of months, so I don't want to get too cute. I am taking today's pullback (hopefully it will last) as a chance to get in.

25 C, 35 S, 40 I

[neirbod]

Still staying in 100% stocks. I expect a small pullback, followed by more growth. I am not confident in my short-term timing, so I am just playing long and not worrying about a little backslide.

Moving funds around as I think the I fund has lost a bit of its lustre. S and C look good for the time being. Still keeping my toe in I as it is hard to argue with the trend over the past couple of years.

30 C, 45 S, 25 I