Market Talk

[Spaf]

The start of a new week!

Last week the stocks were up. The lower oil prices were a help along with some good economic data for the most part (with some exceptions). Hopefully, the stocks will continue to go up the rest of the year, and we wont have any events to derail the increases. As others have alluded to, December is traditionally a good month.

In my opinion the market changed from bear to bull around late October. How long it will stay that way, I really don't know. Hopefully for a long time. Do I have a exit strategy/plan if the market changes, yes I do!

My current allocations are in the TSP stock funds, including some I - fund holdings that I watch very closely.

Attached is a 6 month chart of the S&P with a 50 day moving average.

Regards and best wishes, but be careful! :) Spaf

[Show-me]

Arnt ya gona share? :D

I have thought about it alot but do nothave a proven plan beings I'm new to this. When we see a "down turn" do you jump out or ease out?

I would think ease out unless it a big down turn.

Market Timer mentioned the "IRA Lemmings" flooding the market with their money before tax season. I never put it together until he mentioned it. Guess I learned something again. Watch out world!

[Rod]

Hey Show, this may interest you too:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,140476,00.html

God Bless:^

[Show-me]

Thanx Rod!

Very interesting.

[Spaf]

Show-me wrote:
Arnt ya gona share? :D

Sure I'll share! It is based in one of the sections in The Dow Theory in the Recommended Readings I left on this site

Show-me, One better,I'll send U a e-mail!

One thing is for sure, a bear market separates the one's with actual plans from the ones that just leave and then come back when the market is up again..........

[Show-me]

That's why I'm ask'n Milk Man.

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents **** poor performance.

Thanks Spaf. Good luck this week.

Show-me wrote:

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents **** poor performance.

There's also mlkman's 7 p's : People posting post performance prices perform perfectly.............and : posting pre-market postures proves pre-existing plans, period.........ask MT..............:^

[coolhand]

The story on taxes provides yet another of many pieces of what makes the market tick. Perhaps we'll see some consolidation this week. Don't be surprised.

Here's a story about this year's Santa Clause Rally. Remember, it's only an opinion piece.

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/thecomingweek/10197413.html

Oh yeah, don't forget to keep your eye on the "I"...;).

[smedlap]

Thanks Coolhand. To make already what the market traditionally provides for the month is not heartwarming. I say the OPEC meeting on Friday where expected reductions in production are to be raised (oil will continue to drop despite) and the FOMC (.25 raise due to a poor jobs report) on Tuesday are the 2 major events that will cause some temporary consolidation. So oil continuing to drop, expected rate hike, a continued dollar declineand a fair S&P market value of 1225 (3% still to gain).

What say you Tom. I'm not watching I. I'm all the way in. But the US market is still the best!

[Spaf]

smedlap

Tom has already posted his comments!

He has a fairly good insite or position for a consolidation period in our continued bullish market. I have a job that sometimes takes me away from constant computer access. This is one of those sometimes.

I can go with Tom's position, and even allocate more towards the US funds.
I'll transfer tonight, for Monday at: 35G, 20C, 30S, and 15I.

.................................................. .................................................. ..............

Did the transfer, and noticed something. I took Mike's M_M advice and sent all new monthly allocations to the G - Fund. There it was. Hey, Thanks Mike! Learn sumptin ever day :^!

Hey! Keep the posts going, enjoy, and be careful. Rgds :) Spaf

[Show-me]

I came across this cruz'n the Asian Markets.

Associated Press
Mahathir Calls for Less Reliance on Dollar
Sunday December 5, 11:09 pm ET



Malaysia's Mahathir Urges Countries to Reduce Reliance on U.S. Dollar

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad urged countries and companies Monday to curb their reliance on the U.S. dollar and increase their holdings in the euro and the yen.
"Euros, pounds and yen would be safer to keep than (the) U.S. dollar," Mahathir said in a speech to an East Asian conference of government officials and business leaders. "I would urge countries and businesses to switch to euro and yen (holdings) or buy gold."
Mahathir said the move would help countries from being hurt too much by oil price increases, which were considerably higher when measured in U.S. dollars compared to the other currencies.

Don't know how this guy rates in the world but will this cause a buzz? Hate to be a nay sayer. I don't write it.

[Spaf]

Show-me
Hey, U ain't a nay sayer. Just talking! :^. Appreciate the post.
Keep talking!

Rgds :) Spaf

[coolhand]

Show-me wrote:

Don't know how this guy rates in the world but will this cause a buzz? Hate to be a nay sayer. I don't write it.

This is a very common view right now, but still one of speculation. It is entirely possible that the dollar could fall much lower if foreign holdings of our bonds and treasuries flee. It could be that they will just more or less maintain their positions and simply reduce their forex inflows. That would have a much less dramatic effect on the dollar in my view, but may still cause the dollar to drop some more,although at a much reduced pace vs a sell-off.

It's important to watch what the overseas markets are doing. Sometimes I think we must act on speculation if it appears to be justified, just like Tom did just prior to the election bymoving a large percentage of holdings into"G". But we have to be careful and weight the risk and that's not always easy to do.

Thanks for your input Show-me.

smedlap wrote:
Thanks Coolhand. To make already what the market traditionally provides for the month is not heartwarming.And that all came on the first day of the month! :shock:

Spaf wrote:
Did the transfer, and noticed something. I took Mike's M_M advice and sent all new monthly allocations to the G - Fund. There it was. Hey, Thanks Mike! Learn sumptin ever day :^!

Hey! Keep the posts going, enjoy, and be careful. Rgds :) SpafYou're swellcome..............:)

[learning]

I'm staying pro market. If it takes a hit I will ride it out. I am only at 15% in the I fund and expect to go up to 20. I read the artical on the Santa Clause Rally. Thanks.

Here is a question.

I have most of my moneyin the stocks right now and that is a good thing. Now, my future contrabutions from my pay check, if you will, are mostly going to the G fund. Then when I do a trade, that money comes out and goes in with the rest of my money in the market as I feel comfortable. Some a very little amount is going into the stocks straight from my pay check. (None is going to the F fund for now. I have used the F fund and will use it this comming year, not now though.)

I was thinking of taking all future contrabutions and putting that into the G fund where it is safe, until I do a trade. Then when I trade it will gowith the rest of my money where I want it. I do not trade my money near as often during the year as some of you do. How do you invest your future money from the pay check?:*

learning wrote:


I was thinking of taking all future contrabutions and putting that into the G fund where it is safe, until I do a trade. Then when I trade it will gowith the rest of my money where I want it. I do not trade my money near as often during the year as some of you do. How do you invest your future money from the pay check?:*
You can't do that learning, that's "my" strategy............:P

[Show-me]

coolhand,

I agree. I retreated to the G around the election and it hurt a little when the market went up. I still think it was a good safe move. The continued currency decline is making me rethink my allocations. You guys in the I Fund have been kicking my butt since I got out. Nikkei and FTSE down so far today and USD looks slightly up against the Yen and slightly down against the Euro. If a pullback is coming this week feels like the right time. Even thou I think I personally will stay more aggressive than Tom. Thus according to Murphy's law making Tom's reasoning come true.

Looking forward to a new week. Good luck everyone! If your reading these posts you have started taking control of YOUR retirement or at least a interest. Likesomeone said (I thinkTom) the I fund had a 50% gain in 18 months and less than 1% of the TSP was there. CRAP neither was I until a few months ago when I started monitoring this site, thanks Tom.:^

Good Morning All:

learning hre is a forum I ran across while

lurkingit might help you too.

Barb

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum4/

[learning]

Thanks found it. I will change my allocation of money for the future when I move my money in the accounts. Just keep them the same and then I am staying in with the percentage that I like. Some great post from all, Past and present.:D

[learning]

HEADS UP

Those :@hit us in Saudi. They got our Consulate office. None of our people were hurt or captured.:! (per reports that I read.)

This hit has caused a rise in oil at the time I read the report of around 68 cents per barrel. :U Now that is still a long way from where it use to be.

HERE IS SOMETHING YOU MAY WANT TO THINK ABOUT. IF THE MARKET GOES DOWN TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE HIT. (IT IS DOWN THE LAST TIMEI SAW.) (THE HIT WAS NOT THAT BAD, EXCEPT, THE OIL HAS GONE UP A LITTLE.) COULD THE MARKET REBOUND THE NEXT DAY, OR TODAY? JUST FOR SOME OF YOU DOING TRANSFERS TODAY. HATE TO BUY HIGH AND SELL LOW.:X

Praying for all of us. Hope every one of us does well, RGDS.

PRAYING HARD FOR THOSE OVER THERE.THOSEPROTECTING OUR COUNTRY AND PEOPLE ABROAD AND AT HOME. :!

[Mike]

I've decided to stay put for that reason. If we're down again tomorrow, it's probably the pullback... in which case, I'll just stay invested all the way through and await the inevitable rebound later in the month.

[neirbod]

Hi,

I am thinking about oil, too (like most everyone, I assume). I am thinking there are two forces that may act to balance each other out this week: the oil inventory report and the OPEC meeting.If this week'soil inventory report (scheduled for Tuesday or Wednesday, I believe) comes out with strong increases in oil supplies, that would usually result in lower oil futures prices. But, to counter a large decrease in oil price, OPEC may be more likely to curb production, tending to push oil higher. Conversely, a smaller than expected rise in oil inventories may encourage OPEC to maintain high production and/or not crack down on those countries exceeding agreed to limits. This could all come out as a wash.

I went to 100% G on Friday, effective today. Got lucky with that one! If the markets continue to decline today, I'll probably get back in to at least 50% stocks before the deadline, anticipating a bounce. Just guesswork on my part. Good luck to all.

Dave

learning wrote:

Praying for all of us. Hope every one of us does well, RGDS.

PRAYING HARD FOR THOSE OVER THERE.THOSEPROTECTING OUR COUNTRY AND PEOPLE ABROAD AND AT HOME. :!

Amen, God bless us, every one...

I am going tohold in the S & C for tomorrowas well. However, if this activity keeps up, with a run up to elections in Iraq, Oil prices, etc. it may be best to park in G for a while.

[Pineapple]

TSPTalk Users:

It's Christmas! I sent Tom $10 via PayPal since I view this page almost daily.

If everyone did the same, it would make all Tom's hard work pay off.

What'd ya say - let's all give $5 or $10.

Pineapples in Hawaii

[tsptalk]

Pineapple wrote:
It's Christmas! I sent Tom $10 via PayPal since I view this page almost daily.
Thanks Santa! :D

[coolhand]

Pineapple wrote:
TSPTalk Users:

It's Christmas! I sent Tom $10 via PayPal since I view this page almost daily.

If everyone did the same, it would make all Tom's hard work pay off.

What'd ya say - let's all give $5 or $10.

Pineapples in Hawaii

Great idea Pineapple. Tom does have operating expenses to deal with.

[coolhand]

Smedlap -thanks for the travel wishes. I actually leave in the morning.

mlk_man -

You got two cents today...good call. Milk Maiden will be thrilled :P. I'm just glad I only dropped 6 cents today from Friday's close, but still a gain from my last move.

[cash_in]

Pineapple wrote:
TSPTalk Users:

It's Christmas! I sent Tom $10 via PayPal since I view this page almost daily.

If everyone did the same, it would make all Tom's hard work pay off.

What'd ya say - let's all give $5 or $10.

Pineapples in Hawaii

[Spaf]

Got back into town this PM. Had bad weather all day. Not a good one to be in the boon-docks. But heck it's my job.

I agree that we should help Tom with expenses, he's done a great job.

Apparently some down grades affected the market today. The talk I heard was that after the recent advance the market was due for a bit of consolidation. In this bull market we have to expect these consolidation pockets. I think that is when some of the new money comes in, so they say. If all we had was big advances, that wouldn't be good. The good side is that we get the advances (in what ever shape) and we have more and more nuts to put in our tree.

Rgds :) Spaf

coolhand wrote:
-mlk_man -

You got two cents today...good call. Milk Maiden will be thrilled :P. I'm just glad I only dropped 6 cents today from Friday's close, but still a gain from my last move.



Ahhh yes, milky's maiden, guess I have to leave again so she'll come back.......:P

Two cents is two cents I reckon, tomorrow is iffy, these up one day and down the next days are brutal. I would of normally jumped back in stocks today for tomorrow, but as I stated before, while I was back testing my system, I noticed that you shouldn't jump in and out of the market everyday for more than 3 or 4 times. If you do it that often, we usually get a pretty big drop. Just trying to avoid that since I started over with my account on Nov. 15th. If I had followed this system all year, I'd be up around 45%. Then I wouldn't care if I lost a little bit........

Stay tuned......still 100% F fund tomorrow.

Good luck,

M_M

[Spaf]

Mike

Two cents is two cents :). Baring the unexpected, the bull should be advancing, just a matter of when.

I went over to the US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov) check the big picture. And this is what they had to say:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2004,
according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.3 percent.

Rgds :) Spaf

[Spaf]

Chaplain
Thanks for reminding me about the bishop. I got busy, and then it hit me :i.
G_d kind of works that way at times!

Thanks again, and be careful! :) Spaf

[Mike]

The I-fund fell $.03, or 0.2%.

The EAFE fell 0.6%.

The dollar gained a tiny bit of strength today.

So, was Friday's dollar weakness factored in today? Based on the discrepancies, it could have been.

[learning]

I read something I thought you all might lke to hear. I believe it was on Yahoo last night. OPEC is said to meet this Friday. Iran is said to want to cut back on oil production. They will be asking the other OPEC countries to cut back and stop that quick slide in oil prices. They are not against the drop, just that it went down to fast. I quess it did not go up to fast. Hmm. Not our friends we know that. Also with the drop in the dollar they are not getting as much for the oil so they may really do it. Something for you to think about and research.:%

I am looking at a reduction in stocks Thursday to be in affect for Friday.

Becareful out there, it is your retirement your working with to various degrees.

This market is being such a tease today..............:shock:

Did I miss something? Looks like the bottom just fell out.....................

[neirbod]

I wonder if it is this quote:

Challenger said the economy's biggest worry is that a "large number of lower-middle class and middle-class Americans struggling to make it paycheck-to-paycheck will be short of discretionary income during the holiday shopping season."

It is in the CNN article talking about job cuts. The story came out earlier today, but it was updated just after noon. I read the earlier version, and I don't recall this quote.

The story is here:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/07/news/economy/jobless_challenger/index.htm

Dave

[Spaf]

neirbod wrote:
Challenger said the economy's biggest worry is that a "large number of lower-middle class and middle-class Americans struggling to make it paycheck-to-paycheck will be short of discretionary income during the holiday shopping season."



Dave....The more I read this article, the more it just seemed to be...a....not good writing.

Is the biggest problem with the economy = to the people that don't have it won't have extra.

Rgds :* Spaf

neirbod wrote:
I wonder if it is this quote:

Challenger said the economy's biggest worry is that a "large number of lower-middle class and middle-class Americans struggling to make it paycheck-to-paycheck will be short of discretionary income during the holiday shopping season."

It is in the CNN article talking about job cuts. The story came out earlier today, but it was updated just after noon. I read the earlier version, and I don't recall this quote.

The story is here:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/07/news/economy/jobless_challenger/index.htm

Dave
Interesting , thanks!

[neirbod]

Spaf wrote:
neirbod wrote:
Challenger said the economy's biggest worry is that a "large number of lower-middle class and middle-class Americans struggling to make it paycheck-to-paycheck will be short of discretionary income during the holiday shopping season."



Dave....The more I read this article, the more it just seemed to be...a....not good writing.

Is the biggest problem with the economy = to the people that don't have it won't have extra.

Rgds :* Spaf


Right! The headline should read: People Don't Have Money Because People Don't Have Money ;)

I think the gist is that, with many people still out of work and higher costs (e.g. from energy, health care), people just don't have as much money to spend this year on holiday gifts. That would help explain why retail sales have been sluggish up to this point in the holiday season. Low sales leads tolow profits, leading to reductions in hiring.

Now see, you have to read "between the lines", I believe it says that interest rates will be raised to 7% come next Tuesday and the real estate market will then have to raise their rates to like 10% and then everyone that doesn't have a fixed rate will have to sell their homes just to pay off their loans and then will have to move in with mom and dad or a cardboard box at the corner, and then the credit card companies will have to raise their rates to 30%, and if your car isn't paid off.............





Just kidding all, I wanted to see what it was like to be someone else on this board...........:P

Good luck,

M_M

[Rod]

Some folks may find this site interesting. I thought the outlook comments were interesting.

http://stockmarketcourse.com/outlook.asp

God Bless:^

[Spaf]

M_M... U scaret me (aka Lemming#4)!Thame on U!

Rod that was a good web site. Noted and thanks :)

I think I'm running into information overload about the prices of things and the economy. One person says tomatoes are #3.99 a lb. The next person says he doesn't even like tomatoes. The Govt BEA site gave me a picture of increased personal income, increased GDP, a decrease in corp. profits, a trade deficit, high imports, and high foreign investments.

[cowboy]

mlk_man wrote:
Now see, you have to read "between the lines", I believe it says that interest rates will be raised to 7% come next Tuesday and the real estate market will then have to raise their rates to like 10% and then everyone that doesn't have a fixed rate will have to sell their homes just to pay off their loans and then will have to move in with mom and dad or a cardboard box at the corner, and then the credit card companies will have to raise their rates to 30%, and if your car isn't paid off.............





Just kidding all, I wanted to see what it was like to be someone else on this board...........:P

Good luck,

M_M



Mmmm! Maybe more truth to this then you might thinkM_M.

[ou81200]

I wonder what Alan Greenspands would think of this synopsis???:D

[smine]

Remind me why I left 95% G to take a 2 day loss of nearly .50+ total?

[Spaf]

ou81200....I wouldn't even go there.M_M is a good member. I just wish he would give a warning. I still can't find my little lemming. He didn't see M_M's avatar.

Smine....the reason you got out of G was to join the bull market. In this market what went down today will go back up. The primary movement is still a bull market. We had a secondary move or correction today. We kind of had to let some of the air out of the bag to make room for some more leaves.In the meantime lets see what Tom has to comment about tonight. I think Tom is right about a correction to 1160-1175. It was down to 1177 today. The advances have in the past come fast and furious. Lets see what he has to say first? OK?

Rgds :) Spaf

[learning]

Tom said get outand I did not do it. AWWWWW He said that it would correct and it did. NOOOOOO. Do I feel like a :dah:.

Good Job Tom:^

Market timer, you called the F fund several times very well, I have noticed:^

Now, to bail out and tommorow for the next day or stay put, that is the question. I hope to see some positive correction tommorow. Tom has said that we are in for some corrections for several days. I still believe that the month would be good. Some of the articles I have read have said other.

If CNN and some article caused this I hope they, I do not know but I hope it anyway:P

Good job, to all that did the bail out in time.

[VictorPR]

Here in Connecticut I just found out that Wendy's Restaurants are not serving any more tomatoes with their hamburgers ,unless you actually request tomatoes, due to the high price of tomatoes. Wow, what is a great hamburger without tomatoes. It sounds unbeliavable, but it is real.:(

[Spaf]

Victor
I think it's a supply and demand thing.
Tomatoes $3.99 a lb. but you can stop at Taco Mayo and get a complete 3 tamale dinner for $3.99.

[Spaf]

Will be interesting to see what Tom has for current market and fund comments. The correction to 1177 is slightly above his limits of 1160-1175.

This oneday transfer delay isn't helpful in the fast and furious increases and decreases we have been getting in this bull market. That delay gives in to guess work. Who would expect a -106.48 on the DJIA, in one day, Wow! I'll hedge the transfer mechanism and post a tenitive transfer to 30c, 50s, 20i for tomorrow. I'll check Tom's feelings and the market in the AM for a stay, cancel, or change, indicator.

I was instructed to be thinking at 260 mph in order to fly an airplane at 250 mph. OK!
Then how do you react to a market with big plus or minus days if it takes a day just to get ready for takeoff or to put it in the hanger? The Dow Theory says to stay airborne and ride the bull. But, Wow, some of those corrections really wantyou say Ouch!

Rgds, and be careful! ;) Spaf

smine wrote:
Remind me why I left 95% G to take a 2 day loss of nearly .50+ total?Because MT said stay in until the end of Jan...................:P

cowboy wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
Now see, you have to read "between the lines", I believe it says that interest rates will be raised to 7% come next Tuesday and the real estate market will then have to raise their rates to like 10% and then everyone that doesn't have a fixed rate will have to sell their homes just to pay off their loans and then will have to move in with mom and dad or a cardboard box at the corner, and then the credit card companies will have to raise their rates to 30%, and if your car isn't paid off.............





Just kidding all, I wanted to see what it was like to be someone else on this board...........:P

Good luck,

M_M



Mmmm! Maybe more truth to this then you might thinkM_M.
OH NOOOOOOOOOOOOO.........Had to open my big mouth didn't I? :x

learning wrote:

Market timer, you called the F fund several times very well, I have noticed:^

learning, you are being facitious right? :P

mlk_man wrote:
I would of normally jumped back in stocks today for tomorrow, but as I stated before, while I was back testing my system, I noticed that you shouldn't jump in and out of the market everyday for more than 3 or 4 times. If you do it that often, we usually get a pretty big drop. Thank goodness for back testing....................:^

[Spaf]

Mlk_man Wrote
OH NOOOOOOOOOOOOO.........Had to open my big mouth didn't I? :x

Yea! U saret away my Lemming! Is he in up there in your territory? Mail him back!
Do not punch holes in box, and do not feed him!


Rgds :D Spaf

[Rod]

VictorPR wrote:
Here in Connecticut I just found out that Wendy's Restaurants are not serving any more tomatoes with their hamburgers ,unless you actually request tomatoes, due to the high price of tomatoes. Wow, what is a great hamburger without tomatoes. It sounds unbeliavable, but it is real.:(
No biggie.. just request tomatoes!:D

[learning]

VictorPR wrote:
Here in Connecticut...Wendy's Restaurants...not serving any more tomatoes with their hamburgers ,unless you actually request...:(


It has been that way up in Maine too for a week at least.:?

[Show-me]

OOOOOOOOOK now. Was that the correction or is there more to come with those *&%$# in OPEC having a meeting Friday.How about the Silver and Gold prices. Ouch. Had a fewounces of silver to sell. Guess not now.I was going to write a post earlier about how I noticed the price of silver was rising against the decline in the dollar. I was wondering to myself if silver would decline as the USD came up.

O.K. I'm done. Good luck everyone.

[Spaf]

Learning......There is always something in short supply. And everyone has to have it.

Was checking the Market Reports on USA Today, and here is what they had to say (in part):

"Sometimes the corrective process seems a lot worse than it is. ... I would caution investors to be rational here and understand that earnings growth is good; the bond market is in check; the Fed will still be raising rates but at a measured tone,"

[Spaf]

As of lately there may be some confusion in where we stand in the market, and some terms that have been used of late. I am posting this for clairification:

Recession
A recession is defined, informally but not officially, as two consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation-adjusted) growth in the gross domestic product.
.................................................. .................................................. ..................................

Bull Market
Simply put, a bull market refers to a market that is on the rise. It is typified by a sustained increase in market share prices. In such times, investors have faith that the uptrend will continue in the long term. Typically, the country's economy is strong and employment levels are high.

Bear Market
On the other hand, a bear market is one that is in decline. Share prices are continuously dropping, resulting in a downward trend that investors believe will continue in the long-run, which, in perpetuates the spiral. During a bear market, the economy will typically slow down and unemployment will rise as companies begin laying-off workers.
.................................................. .................................................. ..................................

Current Market - primary movement as of 12-08-04
The current bull market started back in August 13, 2004 at the S&P level of 1060.72.
On October 25th the market made a secondary move or correction to a new higher low at 1090.19. When the previous peak of 1142.25 was surpassed on Nov 3rd., the
begining of a 2nd leg and a primary bull movement was confirmed.


Current Market Conditions as of 12-08-04 (Todays results)
This week the market recorded losses and gains and exibited a secondary move to correct. Some past daily fluctuations have been quick and steep. As of12-08 US Stocks ended with solid gains and good performance. The dollar was higher, metals lower, and oil under $42. Market sentiment was good. And, using theS&P500, prices were well above a 50 day moving average.

Rgds :) Spaf

Good point...OPEC will reset the starting price of oil from $28 to $35 and they are pushing to cut production...if they get the oil pegged to the Euro from the U.S. dollar...stand by for heaving rolls.

Hmmm.

Retail sales on the lower end retailers. That should be a caused for concern. Auto makersare not even moving thenew 2005 models and need to give deep rebates and5-6 year interest free to get them off the lots.

November job report, 112 jobs created. Over 165K people come into the work force a month. That means we are not even creating enough jobs for the new people joining the workforce.

A big big one. Is 1 Jan 05 the textile quotas for China are over....that means they will be able to flood our market with clothes, sheets, etc. That will mean a lot of lay offs in that industry here.

Personal income is not keep up with personal spending. Average workweek is down to 33.7 and hourly earnings increases are near 0%.

The above are just the items off the top of my head....but all of the above are not good for the U.S. stock market.

Good luck. Bash me but the point is people are spending money they do not have and Americans are holding record debt (as well of the government).

If the flat tax comes to pass...bail, bail, bail out ofstocks.

Spaf....good luck in your investments.

The terrorist attacks (Spain/Saudi) are something I can not predict.

The Wall Street Journal of the U.S. Treasuries getting downgraded really hit the market hard on Tuesday. After 1 pm....boom (sort of speaking)

However the more the market goes down the money people will fund their ROTH/IRAs starting the first week of January. However the news moving forward (OPEC, Fed, etc) could not be helpful for the rally to continue.

However this is the time to be in the market. To win the pot you have to have chips on the table.

The F fund is a disaster waiting to happen. We had this situation in 2000...short term rates inverted over long term rates and we all know how that turned out.





mlk_man wrote:

smine wrote:
Remind me why I left 95% G to take a 2 day loss of nearly .50+ total?Because MT said stay in until the end of Jan...................:P

[learning]

MarketTimer wrote:
Good point...OPEC will reset the starting price of oil from $28 to $35 and they are pushing to cut production...if they get the oil pegged to the Euro from the U.S. dollar...stand by for heaving rolls.

Hmmm.



From what I have read. Iran and someother members are doing what you have said. The one exception to this is that they are not pushing to go off of the dollar. They are wanting to make up for it's devaluation. Saudi has said that they are not going to cut back and that they are not over worried about the cost of oil going down fast as it went up fast. It is also well above what they wanted. They also noted that the cold season is starting in the North. Saudi is the only country with the ability to put out extra oil. All the other countries are pegged. The big boys on the block are Saudi and Iran. See how this plays out.

Learning,

Do not forget Russia. They are number 2 in production and their government has been goobling up their oil producers (hey you owe us taxes...give me your company). The talk of invading Iran is probably not going to put them ina friendly state at this meeting. The bottom line is they want all the money they can get (who can blame them). It costs them .50 a barrel to extract from the earth.

A couple of the folks I listen to say OPEC will push to be paid in Euros...especially if the U.S. treasuries are not rated triple AAA.

Remember Osams plan is to wreck us financially....we owe more then 7% of our GDP and are spending 20% more then we take in...inflation is all around (food, oil, insurance, etc, etc) however the U.S. government says inflation is 1.7% year on year. Yes, cars are down 12% year on year and computers are down 18% year on year but who goes to the car/computer store every week to buy a car or computer? I go to the grocery store every week andmy need a lay away program to buy them in the future. Green peppers have gone from .62 to 2.21 a pound in threemonths here. AND GUESS WHAT the new Homeland Security Bill proposes 100% of food coming into the country. That will raisefood prices greatly because nothing will keep clearing the inspection.

China is buying U.S. companies. Europeans are buying up U.S. real estate. WE are in very bad shape, in my opionion.

Good luck!

Bill

[learning]

MarketTimer wrote:
Learning,

Do not forget Russia. They are number 2 in production and their government has been goobling up their oil producers....
.... Good luck!

Bill





I did forget Russia.:x That is why I love this sight.:!

Yes and they are turning communist again. Interesting...

Putin will also have the right to fire and elect regional leaders. ...







Putin Justifies Policies (http://www.sptimes.ru/archive/times/1022/top/t_14195.htm)
St Petersburg Times, Russia,Russia- Nov 18, 2004
... the popular vote for regional leaders, eliminating independent ... legislatures that twice refuse to support his picks. ... power over regional authorities," Putin said ...

[Rod]

NOT a very impressive opening today.

Tomorrow will be more of the same with the Opec meeting and then the CPI, fed and trade balance next week. This is the sweet spot to buy some stocks.

Look for one more good rally then a big drop off at point 23.

:)...I have been saying this all year and not going to stop now.

Rod wrote:

NOT a very impressive opening today.

Rod wrote:

NOT a very impressive opening today.

[Paul]

MarketTimer wrote:
China is buying U.S. companies. Europeans are buying up U.S. real estate. WE are in very bad shape, in my opionion.




Yea MT but that's what they all said about Japan in the 80's. They were buying up companies left and right because their economy was about to tank and they all knew it. China's in the same boat and if they can't fix it, they'll blow their economy right out of the water.

Where does that put us?

80% of our debt is own by these guys.

We are below them. Your master is whoholds your debt.

[Paul]

Masters are temporary if they can't run their ship.

Paul wrote:
Masters are temporary if they can't run their ship.Mutiny on the bounty? :^

We are running our ship by spending 20% more then we take in....it appears our ship is going to run a ground.



Paul wrote:

Masters are temporary if they can't run their ship.

[Spaf]

Why do we do the things we do?

Could be it all got started in a garden, a long time ago!

[Dakota]

Spaf wrote:
Why do we do the things we do?

Could be it all got started in a garden, a long time ago!spaf, things are turning don't you think its time to go all in like c and s

Dakota wrote:
Spaf wrote:
Why do we do the things we do?

Could be it all got started in a garden, a long time ago!spaf, things are turning don't you think its time to go all in like c and sStill early, wouldn't it be nice to day trade..................:shock:

[Spaf]

Chuck......Yea! I'm 100% stocks (can't sleep at nights) but I'm relying on Mr. Market. It's like what Mike just said. It would be great to have immediate trades.In TSP it's like you are chasing it if you go after the daily fluctuations, and it doesn't always work, at least not for me, so I don't do it. But we canposition our funds to our advantage in the primary movement. Sometimes we catch the nut on an intermediate move or correction. Sometimes we trip over the nut!


Rgds

[vectorman]

MarketTimerwrote: Look for one more good rally then a big drop off at point 23.




Hey MT, what do you mean by point 23?

[Spaf]

Victorman... MT was referring to the 3 peaks & domed house RE: Short term outlook he made 12-9

.................................................. .................................................. ....................................

Buy and Hold and or Market timing

With TSP one has the ability to transfer funds and to change fund distribution. This is like positioning funds for the best returns or the least losses. TSP has a 1 - 2 day account transaction time which prohibits day trading and can be a pain for intermediate moves (corrections/rallys). Impossible with daily fluctuations. As MT has said it take a day to get out of dodge.

Buy and hold and market timing both, for profits, depend on buying low and selling high. Buy and hold depends on the market to rise, timing depends on entry and exit, but generally on a shorter time frame. Both systems work. There are pros and cons each way. The real problem (as I see it) is to understand the market to ensure that one is buying low, or entering low, and then monitoring returns to ensure that fund(s) are performing ok. This is critical to either system! Bottom line is that if one is holding or timing the goal of investing is success.

Knowledge is key to sucess. There are a lot of good books, and there are a lot of good web sites, there is a lot of good advice on this site. Tom (TSPTalk) gets a thumbs up for creating it. But, there is a lot of not so good advice out there, and in some casesthey will even charge you for it. But, where does one start, with this knowledge thing. A financial advisor from Fidelity told me to first understand "The Dow Theory". After that you can build your knowledge. You have to learn how to walk before learning how to run. This was the best advice I everrecieved.
:i

The Dow theory helps investors identify facts, not make assumptions or forecast. It can be dangerous when investors and traders begin to assume. Predicting the market is a difficult, if not an impossible game.

The Dow Theory is on the internet, and it is in this site under Recommended Readings. It doesn't take long to read it, it's in 3 parts.The Dow theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today's volatile and technology-driven markets, the basic components of Dow theory still remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamilton and articulated by Robert Rhea, the Dow theory addresses not only technical analysis and price action, but also market philosophy. Many of the ideas and comments put forth by Dow and Hamilton became axioms of Wall Street. While there are those who may think that it is different this time, a read through The Dow Theory will attest that the stock market behaves the same today as it did almost 100 years ago.

My conclusion is that we do not have to re-invent the wheel, we just need to be informed investors, holders or timers.

.................................................. .................................................. .................................

My analysis as a novice, and forecasts as seen on the internet, indicate that the present bull market is intact, and it appears positive for Friday 12-10. But, anything could happen.
I've tweaked my allocation distribution to 60c, 40s, to be effective next week. The C fund has been a good performer the last few days so I will go with the trend, till indicated otherwise.

Rgds. And be careful! :) Spaf

Great Post Spaf,

I find getting full in the market Halloween and get our Martin Luther King Days works greatly for me. You may want to look into that. Send me an e-mail and I will send you a site that has 65 years of data supporting that approach.

I do not like to take loses and things are just to frothy for me right now. The economic reports will sink in today and the fed fear factor MAY appear the last hour of trading today.

Good luck all!

Bill

[Spaf]

Sounds good to me, would enjoy seeing the site. Just left click on my user name.

Tks

You say "frothy"! Wasen't there a time where you could invest and not worry too much. Maybe just a dream I had, oh well. It's not mine to reason why........

Rgds. :? TGIF Spaf

[vectorman]

Looks like the I fund is near the support level going back to Nov., sure hope it holds.:?

[Spaf]

vectorman wrote:
Looks like the I fund is near the support level going back to Nov., sure hope it holds.:?
It passed my stop........ Maybe, out of gas?
The C fund kind of perked up, so I effected a re-allocation. "Plan B".

Rgds :) Spaf

[vectorman]

Just think if your a member of OPEC you can double dip by going short in the market knowing full well by voting to cut back production you'll benefit from it both ways.:^

[learning]

vectorman wrote:
Just think if your a member of OPEC you can double dip by going short in the market knowing full well by voting to cut back production you'll benefit from it both ways.:^


Oh heaven, do they have us good. We need to develop and encourage other sources of energy. In the Western States and around the U.S. they could give tax breaks for solar energy. Hydrogen energy can be done for vehicles, safely. OPEC controls and thus owns the market. Make no mistake about it.

P.S. By the way I forgot who brought up tomatos. They will go way down in a week or two. Florida's crop is on line again.:l

[coolhand]

For those of us who are really plugged in to the dollar and its effect on the global economy the below link has some real good commentary on the subject (read the first two articles). It is a round table discussion between some of Morgan Stanley's global economists about the weak dollarand many of the potential pitfalls that may befall the global economy. It is not really anything new to us here on this board, butit serves as a reminder of some very real problems that our own economymight face in the not too distant future.


http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

The "I" fund has taken it on the chin here this past week. I'm glad I stepped aside when I did, but for those of you who still have exposure to it keep in mind that it may be temporary. The conditions thatbrought the dollar to new lows lately have not disappeared. Comments to be made by Mr. Greenspan next week may have a significant bearing on how to play it.

[vectorman]

mlk_man wrote:
Show-me wrote:

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents **** poor performance.

There's also mlkman's 7 p's : People posting post performance prices perform perfectly.............and : posting pre-market postures proves pre-existing plans, period.........ask MT..............:^
well said.:^

vectorman wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
Show-me wrote:

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents **** poor performance.

There's also mlkman's 7 p's : People posting post performance prices perform perfectly.............and : posting pre-market postures proves pre-existing plans, period.........ask MT..............:^
well said.:^


Thank you, took me a week to think of that.............:P