Enjoy the rally while it lasts

Enjoy the rally while it lasts
Commentary: Don't worry about down-the-road, yet
By Tomi Kilgore (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?siteid=mktw&x=116+107+105+108+103+111+1 14+101&y=Tomi%20Kilgore&guid=%7BE2CCB178%2D4586%2D 4210%2D844E%2D3715924B7EEA%7D), CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:23 AM ET Nov. 29, 2004
It's not really a positive article. Reference is made to the Elliot Wave theory.

Found at but need to subscribe (free) http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=nwhpm&guid=%7BE2CCB178% 2D4586%2D4210%2D844E%2D3715924B7EEA%7D (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=nwhpm&guid=%7BE2CCB178% 2D4586%2D4210%2D844E%2D3715924B7EEA%7D)
I attached the article in a zip format, unzipped it is a Word document for those who want to read the whole article.

Long rallys are great....:cool:

Look for the party to be over after the lemmings fund their IRAs the first of the year.

[Rod]

MarketTimer wrote:
Long rallys are great....:cool:

Look for the party to be over after the lemmings fund their IRAs the first of the year.




So, are you saying it's a bad idea to fund IRAs the first of the year?

If so, why?

Currently, we're funding our's monthly.

IYO, when's the best time to fund an IRA?

Thanx!:^

MarketTimer wrote:
Long rallys are great....:cool:

Look for the party to be over after the lemmings fund their IRAs the first of the year.

MarketTimer
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Posted: Wed Oct 13th, 2004 02:11 pm

Pete,

No worries! I follow a lot of stuff and at times can not get on here for awhile. I have been doing shorts and need to concentrate on that because I have 20-50 going at a time.

I have been in G fund since 6 Oct. The market is starting to crater...which makes the short side the place to make money.

Be where of all the good news that you hear from the bubble heads...GDP is now under inflation...PEs do not reflect $50 plus oil.

Good luck!.

I do not have time to give analysis right now... but all I can say is lower highs and lower lows...I sound like a broken record but it is easy to see when to buy and when to sell :cool:. MT

Have a great day! I will put more comments over the weekend.

How those shorts work for ya MT, you posted this comment two days before the market started to come up to where it is now...........This is about your last comment before your recent return. You now say that the market will be up until until the end of Jan.? Hmmm, may have to stay out awhile.........:P

[tsptalk]

Aw com'on now mlk. We've all made bad calls (especially me) and we can change our minds.It's the bigger man (or woman) who can admit it. I'm not sure we'll get an admissionthough. Ego is the largest obstacle of market timers (as well as most endeavorsin life).

Let'slook forward. You're F fund today, correct? So you must be thinking pullback also.Do you have a time frame? I'm thinking the 14th or 15th. The Fed meets and announces the interest rate decision on the 13th.

T

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote:
So you must be thinking pullback also.Do you have a time frame? I'm thinking the 14th or 15th. The Fed meets and announces the interest rate decision on the 13th.




Let's not lose sight of how the market reacted during the last rate hike- VERY positively, especially the 2 days that followed.

Of course, it all boils down to Greenspan's comments.

God Bless:^

tsptalk wrote:
Aw com'on now mlk. We've all made bad calls (especially me) and we can change our minds.It's the bigger man (or woman) who can admit it. I'm not sure we'll get an admissionthough. Ego is the largest obstacle of market timers (as well as most endeavorsin life).

Let'slook forward. You're F fund today, correct? So you must be thinking pullback also.Do you have a time frame? I'm thinking the 14th or 15th. The Fed meets and announces the interest rate decision on the 13th.

T
That's why you need a system Tom..........:PYep F fund today, purely speculative though, if I was concerned about losing money, I'd be G. Just following the system, it doesn't predict the future, just the present. We may actually stay up, who knows. The main reason it's telling me to get out is because we had a big up day on the 1st, and it hasn't done much since. This also happened when we jumped from $14 to $14.11 in the S fund. That is why I was jumping in and out everday, and earned a little extra. While backtesting my system I noticed that you shouldn't jump in and out for more than 3-4 days.............If we are up, I don't see it being much.....could be wrong.......

Yes I've been wrong also, I don't act like I never lose money though.........:^

Also, I think it's important for new folks to know that one doesn't have all the answers although they act like they do and seem to be pretty knowledgeable. Remember, "all analysts suck"...........read that in a book...........:^

[puertorico]

mlk_man ,look like F fund will have some pennies today...:^

[tsptalk]

mlk_man wrote:
That's why you need a system Tom..........:P
I know. It takes the quesswork out of it. That's what I like about them.

tsptalk wrote:
Let'slook forward. You're F fund today, correct? So you must be thinking pullback also.Do you have a time frame? I'm thinking the 14th or 15th. The Fed meets and announces the interest rate decision on the 13th.

T
Tom, I just read somewhere today that the Fed has not raised interest rates in Dec. since 1988. Did you know this? Something about holiday shopping and wanting to keep money available or somtehing.......

M_M

[tsptalk]

No, I never heard that. Interesting and good to know.

Thanks!

tsptalk wrote:
No, I never heard that. Interesting and good to know.

Thanks!Your welcome, guess we'll find out Tuesday.........

I posted 13 Oct

C Fund went from 11.90 to 11.62

S Fund went from 13.04 to 12.93

That seemed like a great time to step aside.

How those shorts work for ya MT, you posted this comment two days before the market started to come up to where it is now...........This is about your last comment before your recent return. You now say that the market will be up until until the end of Jan.? Hmmm, may have to stay out awhile.........

Not to sure which was is up to you but I like to step aside when the MACD is over .80

Good luck!

MT

Tom,

The facts was the S&P 500 was acting very badly the middle of Octand the C fund went down .30 a share in a short amount a time. If the election swung the other way there would of been a lot of red on the screen.

Good luck.

Bill

tsptalk wrote:

Aw com'on now mlk. We've all made bad calls (especially me) and we can change our minds.It's the bigger man (or woman) who can admit it. I'm not sure we'll get an admissionthough. Ego is the largest obstacle of market timers (as well as most endeavorsin life).

Let'slook forward. You're F fund today, correct? So you must be thinking pullback also.Do you have a time frame? I'm thinking the 14th or 15th. The Fed meets and announces the interest rate decision on the 13th.

T

Rod,

If you can hold out the best time tofund is late July to early Aug. I recommend you put your money into a tax free money market as a holding area and then move it over at that time. That has worked fairly well over the last 25 years to get the most shares for the dollar.

Of course 2003 was a little different with the retroactive tax cut...but if you look at a chart and pick the best time to buy that is this period (July-August). It is beat into our heads to fund at the start of the new year and the hedge fund guys no that and sell into the inflows of new cash (then on February you are all ready down for the year - great way to start)!

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/_/_dji.gif

Milk that is true...they do not want to sidetrack the X mas rally. 1988 was right after the weaking U.S. dollar problem and they did not want the dollar to weaken again. Remember the crash of 1987 it was because the U.S. dollar dropped and the foreign treasury holders sold off...HEY DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR to what is happening right now.

The fed knows inflation is out there and they have been raising to slowly and need to catch up. Should of done .50 March 2003 and continue at .25 each meeting. Last quarter last year the GDP numbers were 7.9%...we know that is not substainable. Which set up the end of January 2004 sell off.

Today with the bad econonic reports and the opec meeting tommorrow expect a lot of pain today.

Bill



mlk_man wrote:

tsptalk wrote:
Let'slook forward. You're F fund today, correct? So you must be thinking pullback also.Do you have a time frame? I'm thinking the 14th or 15th. The Fed meets and announces the interest rate decision on the 13th.

T
Tom, I just read somewhere today that the Fed has not raised interest rates in Dec. since 1988. Did you know this? Something about holiday shopping and wanting to keep money available or somtehing.......

M_M

The worst possible time is early January - please read my chart.

The hedge fund guys know that you are going to buy and sell into your buying...bottom line the end of January you are all ready down for the year.

Good luck!

Bill

P.S. I hopefully will be hedge fund guy soon so next year I will say "FUND AS SOON AS THE NEW YEAR STARTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!":P Like you are told now by the "experts/gurus".



Rod wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:
Long rallys are great....:cool:

Look for the party to be over after the lemmings fund their IRAs the first of the year.




So, are you saying it's a bad idea to fund IRAs the first of the year?

If so, why?

Currently, we're funding our's monthly.

IYO, when's the best time to fund an IRA?

Thanx!:^

[Rod]

When is the best time to fund the ROTH?

That was weird...I answered your question and my post went to another thread...here it is again:

Historically late July/Early August.

What I see next year is what happened in 2000...big drop end of Jan then a ramp up March and then another big downturn.

I can not have a roth but I am looking to fund about 1/3rd of my ira at the end of the Jan/Feb drop.

What could happen with social security reform is another 2003 type rally that will last about ten months.

Not to be a flip flopper but social security reform would put a ton of money into the stock market...ride the wave and then cash out about nine to ten months from the time it starts.

:D

[Rod]

Thanx Bill!:)