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Spaf
11-28-2004, 07:08 PM
As of the start of a new week, some of the market news indicated that stocks could struggle.

Uncertainity was indicated in the pending jobs report data, high energy prices, and upcomming tech sector reports.

I guess it depends on how you see a glass of water, half full, or half empty!

The market, using the S&P 500 seems to be treading water (waiting) around the 1180 level. We have a bull market, and it could be firming up, just waiting for some good news to give it that push for futher advance.

For the month of November, until the 26th,we had about 18 days of market activity. The TSP funds changed in their share pricing, increase/decrease as follows:
G = +.03, F = -.02, C = +.58, S = +.89, I = +.87.

Will be staying in stocks for the forseeable future, and will tweak the funds on Monday to: C=25, S=45, and I=30, based on recent activity. i.e., I will go average with intnl funds (30% of stock investments),proportion the US stocks,diversifying in all 3 funds.

Attached is a chart of the S&P 500 (3 months) with a 50 day moving average.

Be careful! :) Spaf

coolhand
11-29-2004, 10:17 AM
Interesting start to the new week. Futures were up big to start, but the indices fell back on short order. Tech sector still holding its own, but for how long?

Bonds may be the big story today. If this selling continuesinterest rates will become a factor at some point.I suspect wehave a way to go yet before it impacts stocksmuch, but bond traders are getting nervous about the forex market. Oil isn't helping either. I think we may want to maintain some exposure to the "I" fund in the event the dollar takes a bigger hit. I also think havingsomething in reserve in the "G" fund will helpreduce risk as well as maintain some of the recent gains. Of course it must be played day-to-day. My opinion only.

Good call this morning Tom.

Spaf
11-29-2004, 03:56 PM
The market showed resilence in the afternoon, shaking off some of the Wall-Mart decline. I have to agree with Tom that the market has strength. It just needs some good news!

Won't be stopping by WMT soon.

Mike
11-29-2004, 06:19 PM
I fund rose $.06, S $.02, and C fell $.04.

Glad I kept something in the I fund. :)

coolhand
11-29-2004, 06:46 PM
Lots of economic data coming out this week. After reviewing Briefing.com I didn't see anything thatmight spook the market. If unemployment falls a tenthof one percent that may be the catalyst that moves the market higher :P. Even if it it stays where it is I still think we have more upside to equities.

I was a little concerned about the bond sell-off this morning as I thought the traders may see something coming in the way of forex dollar selling (maybe they do and maybe they don't). There seems more talk every day of the possibility. If it was to happen I'm not sure how significant it would be in terms of rising interest rates. It's a double edged sword for them as rising interest rates here hurts their export paradigm.

Since I'm also playing for a consolidation (or anything else negative) I am keeping something inreserve in "G", but I am going to up my "S" allocation from 20% to 40% tomorrow.That willput me at30/40/30 GSI in the morning (from 50/20/30).

Spaf, it is a strong bull (like Tom said). Buyers were there to pick up the market later in the day. That certainly seems to indicate a lot of investors expect more upside in the short term at least.

Mike, I'm with you. "I" fund has been a good place to be :^.

Spaf
11-29-2004, 08:41 PM
Mike.....Coolhand

I only got a chance to review some of the data in the economic calendar. I agree, I didn't see anything that could freak out the market. It looker pretty consistant to me. And, yes we do need a catalyst to push the market into an advance. This is going into the 2nd week of 1180 (+or-5) for the S&P. Wall-Mart was like taxing into an unseen pothole.

Yep! The I fund has been a keeper since about mid August. The TSP has good funds, you just got to watch them.

Attached is a 6 mo chart for the EAFE fund with a 50 day moving average. Years ago when they first came to TSP they were shunned, now they areflying high.

See Ya, and be careful! :) Spaf

11-29-2004, 08:48 PM
Quick question? What alerts do I need to be watching for that could show the value of the US dollar going up and what affect would that have on the I fund?

:dude::?

smedlap
11-29-2004, 09:05 PM
Value of the dollar goes up, it eats away at share profit. Dollar deteriorates - it increases inshare profit. Go to http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/ market data.:^

Spaf
11-29-2004, 09:14 PM
Ab

A lot of the financial sites have info on currencies. TSP has a fund info sheet for the I fund. I think it is in their Returns and share prices section.
http://money.cnn.com/market/currencies is but one of many. Ever so often Tom will show his chart of the dollar.
You are investing in other countries. So when the dollar goes up, they buy for less.

Hi Smedlap

smedlap
11-29-2004, 09:35 PM
Just a side note ab - I just checked my portfolio and the 32% I fund increase for me actually played out as a 40% overall account increase once the $ exchange play was applied (dollar decline). Naturally it could go the other way in a rising $ environment.

tsptalk
11-29-2004, 10:21 PM
ablingbutch wrote:
Quick question? What alerts do I need to be watching for that could show the value of the US dollar going up and what affect would that have on the I fund?

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex

Spaf
11-30-2004, 01:39 PM
I think I see a flat market based on the horizontal price movement

The market has been going sideways since last week.
Eventually it will go up, but it will need a catalyst, to kick start the movement.
Now is the time to check allocations, and ensure you have the mix you want. Tom had some good advice so it appears.
The short term outlook for the market is unclear. The big picture is that it is moving sideways.

Spaf
11-30-2004, 11:29 PM
coolhand wrote:
Lots of economic data coming out this week. After reviewing Briefing.com I didn't see anything thatmight spook the market.

coolhand you didn't see it, and I didn't see it. But, it was there, hiding!
USAToday Markets reported at finish "US Stocks fall: confidence data weighs on retailers".
In the economics calendar, consumer confidence was previously at 92.9. It was forecasted to go to 96.0. It actually went to 90.5

Q: Why did God create stock analysts ? A: In order to make weather forecasters look good.

Stocks in the S&P have been flat for several days around the 1180 mark. Now they have gone into a decline the last 2 days of November. I thought the market showed strength in how quick it rose from the lows. The weaker dollar, rising energy prices and now the Wall-Mart decline and the unexpected drop in consumer confidence brings a lot of uncertainity into the near picture. Long term, the market should advance. Short term has uncertainity. Tom's chart on December shows the month with a "Split Personality": and better in the last half.

I am not in a phase of high risk tolerance. So I will submit a transfer of funds for 50% G-fund, and 50% stocks for tomorrow. I'll check the AM returns and make a decision to cancell the transfer or let it go through. Since we can't transfer same day, The one day lag is the best available plan. Also, since some members reported transfer problems I'll error on the side of not being able to cancell. If things look really red, I'll transfer all to the G-fund.

Anyway, I've attached a current S&P chart of 3 mo. with a 50D MA and the sideways or flat indicator in green. I would have liked to have seen the market advance, it didn't. I can get the gains another day.Being aggressive, I have to watch very closely.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

Rod
12-01-2004, 07:56 AM
Premarket indexes are looking healthy. Let's hope for a nice GREEN day and no bad economic newsthat mayturn things RED!

http://money.cnn.com/markets/data/

God Bless:^

Mike
12-01-2004, 08:53 AM
US markets are matching what Europe already did (up 0.5-0.7% basically). Oil inventory data will be released at 9:30 central time roughly... I'm guessing the market expects a good report based on the little upward push we're seeing.

Question is, will the market keep going up tomorrow and friday or will it back off? I'll have to wait for the report to be released, then see what happens for the next half hour after that before deciding on today's action (if any). I absolutely hate buying on up days.

Spaf
12-01-2004, 08:55 AM
Rod
I like Green too! I'm just very disappointed in these stock analyst and their data. They forecast warm and sunny and we get thunderstorms and tornados. Notclose, but dead wrong. Airplanes crash because of bad weather. Totally unexcusable!

Rod
12-01-2004, 09:08 AM
Spaf wrote:
Rod
I like Green too! I'm just very disappointed in these stock analyst and their data. They forecast warm and sunny and we get thunderstorms and tornados. Notclose, but dead wrong. Airplanes crash because of bad weather. Totally unexcusable!
It's quite a ride for us amateurs!:D

Rod
12-01-2004, 09:57 AM
Today is shaping up QUITE nicely! KEEP IT COMING!:^

Mike
12-01-2004, 10:05 AM
Definitely not buying in on a day like this. :shock:

12-01-2004, 10:15 AM
Mike wrote:
Definitely not buying in on a day like this. :shock:Should of bought in yesterday you goof..................look to buy in tomorrow......:^

Spaf
12-01-2004, 10:22 AM
Well....Stocks are advancing.

Am cancelling transfer this AM at 10:15 CST

I didn't know that if you put in a transfer out of stocks, that the market would advance the next day.

Love that cancel button!

Mike
12-01-2004, 10:39 AM
I couldn't get in yesterday to do a move... I was busy entertaining. :^

And no, the company wasn't worth missing out on a 1% gain. I just didn't know it at the time. :D

Spaf
12-01-2004, 12:57 PM
Mike

You just can't predict the market. When you think it should go up, it declines and visa versa,--- love it.

I've found that the big picture sometimes gets confused with an intermediate picture or becomes obscured in some respect. I know that part of it is not being able to effect changes the same day. We have to play within the constraints of the system, and the market. None of us that I know has or has had any inside information. And I've never recieved a call from TSP saying that I should buy, sell, or change my allocation.
;)

Spaf
12-01-2004, 03:05 PM
Well what do we do for tomorrow? The week? etc?

Yho Tom!

Attached is a chart of the S&P in candlesticks to see what happened with past advances.

Regards and be careful! :) Spaf

coolhand
12-01-2004, 03:30 PM
I for one am not going to go bearish for the rest of the week. Data was too strong today, with the exception of consumer confidence.

Spaf, I did see that particular market gauge, but did not expect it to come in as low as it did. That indicator is not in line with the rest of Q4 data so far. I suspect it'san aberration. The market certainly didn't buy into it.

How about that "I" fund!!! Up 1.71% today :dude:!!! This cat ain't bouncing just yet. Today, weaker dollar, oil down on higher inventories. Take advantage of market conditions while you can.

I mentioned a couple of days ago that I was going to go 30/40/30 GSIeffective Wednesday. Well, Tuesday morning as I sat there thinkingaboutmy anticipated move I changed my mind and went 70/30 SI. I had to remind myself that my picture is long term and the market is poised for more gains even with eventual pullbacks. Went with my instinct and it paid off.

Here's something else to think about as far as the "I" fund goes. Oil and the dollar are somewhat tied to each other. In other words, oil is priced in dollars internationally. In general, as the dollar gets weaker, oil rises. That was not the case today, but that was because of higher inventory levels. What this means is that the European marketis not affected as much as our market by higher oil because their currency is so much stronger than our own. Plus, in general if our economy is doing well, most other markets follow. I still like the "I" fund throughFriday at least :^.

smine
12-01-2004, 03:48 PM
What a day! Having said that I will confess that I will get to safety effective Thursday. What goes up always comes down! Good day all around. :^

Buy low; sell high!

Spaf
12-01-2004, 03:51 PM
Hey Coolhand ....smine hang in there :^ What's the mention of Thursday and Friday??

Rod
12-01-2004, 04:10 PM
Yes folks... today was ne plus ultra, to say the least.:^

Well, not necessarily "ne plus ultra", but close enough!;)

coolhand
12-01-2004, 05:01 PM
How can we buck this market? Q4 data looks pretty good so far. I'm also thinking that because this is December morejobs are created (seasonal). That should help the employment picture Friday. If that number comes in lower (5.3% or lower)the market will probably take off again. I'm staying in stocks 100% for that reason.

The IMS number helps bolster the notion that our market is in expansion, even if moderately. I'm not so sure seasonality readings are going to be as big a factor this year for this particular month. I won't make any predictions, but everything still looks fairly bullish for the short term (December). Any pullbacks/consolidations are probably going to be limited just like the last few weeks.

Remember... my opinion only. I'm just an amatuer, but would love to beat the big guys. For the record, I'm up about 14.3% this year. I plan on starting an account thread at the beginning of the new year for everyone to follow.

Paul
12-01-2004, 05:57 PM
Here'sa couple moregood Stratfor articles. May eventually have an effect on the I-fund but not for awhile. I will post the second one later.

Paul
12-01-2004, 05:57 PM
Here's the second one.

coolhand
12-01-2004, 06:45 PM
Thanks Paul!

These reflect much of what'sbeen said concerning the "I" fund in this forum. I printed them as a reminder of what to watch for over the next few months.

12-01-2004, 08:54 PM
With such a large rally what are the odd the market will go down friday? And which one whould I stick with in order to loose less money?:shock::shock::shock::shock::shock::shock::s hock::)

coolhand
12-01-2004, 09:23 PM
Hello ablingbutch,

No one can be sure what happens Friday of course, but right now we may be in the beginning of another bull run. It sounds as if you are expecting a pull-back.

Most of us do not tell anyone how to play the market, only how we interpret it at a given point in time, which allows us tomakeinformed decisions. How you play it depends on a number of factors such as your time horizon, risk tolerance and personal goals. Do you want to buy and hold, time the market or something in between (allocation adjustments)?

I recommend taking the time to develop agood understanding of the market through this site, recommended readings and browsing financial publications as well as internet web sites. In the meantime, readTom's daily postsand whomever else you trust to help guide you as you go through this learning process.

For the time being, whether the market goes up or down on Friday may not make much difference if you decide to take a position and stick with it. I think C, S and I funds are all good bets for the month yet. Good luck, and let us know what you decide ;).

Mike
12-01-2004, 09:40 PM
I hope it drops back tomorrow, because I'm moving money in then most likely.

Rod, I still had 25% sitting in the I fund, so I didn't totally miss out on the gains (now up $0.38 per share on it). :^

Spaf
12-02-2004, 12:06 AM
Since we have the bull market going, I thought I would share some information to others that I try to follow. Sometimes I have to kick myself for not following this information.

The secret of successful trading is to take a step back from the market. Trade with the big picture in mind at all times and don't follow the day to day market movement.
Daily market talk can hypnotize you if you follow it too closely. You have to see the wood and not the individual trees.

Focus on the big picture. Follow the bull market and not individual stocks. The market has more influence on stock prices than any other factor. Even the best stocks decline in a bear market.

So what is the secret formula?

The key is to buy when the market signals the start of a bull trend. Select leading stocks that are outperforming the market. Sell when the bull trend has ended.
There are exceptions to this rule: Sell individual stocks if they move against the trend.

There are two primary movements in the market, generally termed bull or bear, these are long sustained advances or declines. There are secondary movements in the market that run counter to the primary movements and are reactionary. In the bear market they are called rallies. In the bull market they are called corrections or sometimes referred to as firming up.

The important thing is not to lose sight of the big picture, and to have a good allocation of funds. When to exit and when to enter the market is not easy even witha understanding of The Dow Theory (See recommended readings on this site, or on the internet via search engines).

Buying and holding and ormarket timing can work to ones advantage, provided one knows what they are doing. As I've been told "knows" is a auful big word.

Attached is a chart of the S&P 500 as of 12-01 for 3 months. The chart is in candlesticks for reference to how the market advanced during the current bull period. And, I have included a 5D MA to soften the ups and downs, and a 50D MA for general trend.

Will be staying in 100%stocks for the near future at 25C, 45S, and 30I.

Rgds., and be careful! :) Spaf

puertorico
12-02-2004, 12:28 AM
Spaf

Can u explain what the graph is telling.
Look like is telling will go up.But I dont
understand what those graph tell at all.
Some basic reading will apreciate...:?

Spaf
12-02-2004, 12:41 AM
Puertorico

The graph confirms a bull market. It went through a correction (firming up) and is advancing. Advances have been strong based on past actions. Where it leads, well thats for the market to answer. Right now, in my opinion, I'm going to hold them (as in the song).

Got to go to Wall-Mart (WMT) for more trash bags to put the green stuff in! Maybe I can get some of these analysist of consumer confidense to help me!

Mike
12-02-2004, 12:47 AM
Japan and Hong Kong markets are up big so far. Over 1%. :shock:

puertorico
12-02-2004, 12:54 AM
Thanks Spaf

Reuters - 43 minutes ago
Japan's Nikkei share average notched up its biggest daily gain in two weeks on Thursday as investors took a rally in U.S. stocks as a signal to buy, shrugging off a rise in the yen to its highest level in nearly five years.

puertorico
12-02-2004, 12:57 AM
Australian stocks rose 1.1 percent to a fresh record high on Thursday as gains by the big miners and investment bank Macquarie helped the market stage its biggest one-day rally in 20 months...:D

Spaf
12-02-2004, 01:00 AM
Mike...Puertorico

We just needed a catylist (of good news) and we got it today. Tomorrow is another day! I'm bullish (in my opinion) the big picture is a lets fly in this apparent good weather.

Rgds :) Spaf

Rod
12-02-2004, 06:15 AM
Mike wrote:
I hope it drops back tomorrow, because I'm moving money in then most likely.

Rod, I still had 25% sitting in the I fund, so I didn't totally miss out on the gains (now up $0.38 per share on it). :^

Awesome!:^

Rod
12-02-2004, 06:47 AM
Why's it taking TSP soooo long to update our accounts???

Did we make TOOO much money yesterday???:P

:D

smine
12-02-2004, 07:10 AM
Ah, government folks at work!!! Still not posted.

12-02-2004, 07:35 AM
Just got my confirmation from my transfer yesterday morning a little while ago. Maybe they are still using ARPANET....................:P

1969


US Government, DoD (Department of Defense to be specific) developed ARPANET. They use this technology to allow various computers within different sections of the military and government that work on different systems to share information with one another. This is the first network. By the end of 1969, four host computers were connected together into the initial ARPANET. These computers were located at 4 colleges: UCLA, Stanford, University of California, and University of Utah. Within 2 years, there were 23 nodes of this network including MIT, NASA, and Harvard. The beginning of the Internet was seen by 1971. By 1972, ARPA is renamed DARPA.
The term RFC (request for comment) is coined.
The first serial port is developed. RS-232 is adopted.
Compuserve is founded in Columbus Ohio.

Spaf
12-02-2004, 08:11 AM
Whomever

I had a IBM computer with a hard drive, a 12K modem, DOS 5.0, it was awesome!

Later I got a mouse. Wow! I was in high cotton. Years later, I got a CG (color graphics) monitor. It's been only reciently that I could spell "puter". and learn what "copy" and "move", I mean "cut" really ment. But I'm getting good at this market thing-a-ma-bob. Buy......low and sell....da....da....high, yea that's it. Wall Mart (WMT) was closed last night so I'm still looking for large trash bags. I just stuffed the green in the garage with all the leaves that blew in last night.

Know any stock analyst that could help me stuff bags. I really don't need their advice, but I might use the hot air, cause it's cold here

A history teacher got suspended down here in one of our public schools after reading the Decloration of Independence in class, it's got them no-no words in it.

Well that's the latest news from the territory.

My keyboard is cold. Think I'll soak it with whats left over in the coffee pot. Phone is ringing, gotta go!

Thursday morning....& I don't no if I can make it to Friday!

Pilgrim
12-02-2004, 03:43 PM
What do you guys think of this little gem from CBSmarketwatch??

"Years ending in five have an exciting history: No losing years in over 120 years of stock market history! Even better, the fifth year of the decade has always experienced the best gain of the decade... Since 1915, the average gain for years ending in five is 34.2 percent."
-- Wall Street Digest

Rod
12-02-2004, 04:23 PM
Pilgrim wrote:
What do you guys think of this little gem from CBSmarketwatch??

"Years ending in five have an exciting history: No losing years in over 120 years of stock market history! Even better, the fifth year of the decade has always experienced the best gain of the decade... Since 1915, the average gain for years ending in five is 34.2 percent."
-- Wall Street Digest

AND... out of all the years these past 120that end in 5, we have only been at war for 1 year and 9 months- WWII, 1945, Vietnam 1965.

Now we have 2005 upon us where we will be at war.

Will the trend continue???

We shall find out.;)

God Bless:^

coolhand
12-02-2004, 04:57 PM
Futures are up right now. Intel just helped tomorrow's outlook somewhat. Let's keep our fingers crossed :!.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/02/technology/intel/index.htm

coolhand
12-02-2004, 07:04 PM
I really like this website. Take a look at today's post.

http://caps.blogspot.com/

12-02-2004, 09:44 PM
coolhand wrote:
I really like this website. Take a look at today's post.

http://caps.blogspot.com/
Yes, I'll have to remember to check it regularly for awhile - but I get information overload and give up sometimes. Thank you.

Spaf
12-02-2004, 11:58 PM
The stock war zone shock

The TSP funds, and participants generally had a safe haven in the 1990's. But in 2000 we were in a stock market war zone, a free-for-all fight to protect our funds without the slightest knowledge of how to do it. Funds in the stock section got mangled and mutilated. If we were luckey some found asafe haven in the G and F funds, others were not that fortunate. The stock war zone ended in 2003 with the prior bull market. Many TSP participants were reluctant to venture intostock, it was just too risky, why not just save what you had already.

And then comes along Tom and his TSPTalk forum. TSP participants are amazed at what they can do with their funds when they talk with others and share their knowledge. This knowledge becomes the power they need to adequately manage their accounts. And, for the record should of had all along.

However, we (myself included) need discipline in this endeavor to manage our funds. But, we don't have to re-invent the wheel. The trading practices, guidelines, and etc already exists for us to optimize the management of our funds

We are not day traders (generally). We don't all have news letters and systems to time the market (remember, TSP has a 1 - 2 day transfer time). And, a lot of us do not appreciate the old system of buy-an-hold. Some of us are new to TSP, some in the middle and some near retirement.

After reading the posts, we are doing a good job, i.e., See all the good work that was done researching and discussing the I - fund.

I will admit I'm not a market guru, but I'm willing to learn. Members on this site, are here becouse they need help maximizing their funds. This, I believe is also Tom's goal, and others too. This is the area of greatest benefit for all, and also have fun along the way. Our gift should be one of guidance. We can't predict the market, what it is going to do tomorrow or the week after, otherwise we would all be retired millionaires. My fault is one of impatience, I have zero patience. I wish I had a tenth of the patience LK has. I guess I spent too much time in hot LZs, whatever. What I'm aluding to is that everone has baggage that can be helped, concerning TSP. i.e., why are some jumping around in different funds while we have a new bull market? We should be concentrating on the proper mix of funds that suits our goals and risk tolerance. Some have a clouded view of the big picture, maybe shell-shocked over the past bear market of cycles up and down. I don't know the perfect solution. However, I feel that our goal should strive to help everyone on this forum, and everone associated with TSP. We have been neglected. Now we have a (2nd)chance.

Well close with a-nuff said. I see a bull market, and will be in stocks. I'll diversify amoung the stock funds with allocations mainly in US funds (C & S) and use the Internationalfund ( I ) as a hedge. I'll keep a close eye on the I- fund because of it's two fold risk, and will limit allocations to that fund to 30% or less. At the current time the S-fund is a very good performer and a larger allocation will be placed in that fund. Ocassionally I will tweak funds for as I see, to be better allocations. And, alsostay tuned for futher guidance on this site. Also, I will develope an exit plan (plan B) for exiting the bull market when it expires ( what goes up has to come down) hoping that the bull market last as long as posible.

My regards and be careful out there! :) Spaf

coolhand
12-03-2004, 05:27 AM
Well said Spaf :).

Chapain said "All ships rise together". That has been my mindset since joining this forum. While I do a lot of my own research and offer my thoughts to all who read this forum, I also do a lot of listening. I would not be as successful as I am right now without the rest of you. I can only do so much research as it takes a lot of time to learn this stuff. And evenif one becomesan "expert"(however that is defined) you can never, ever, get it right each and every time.

Posting on this site can be somewhat uncomfortable whenoneis sharing information that may be used by another to make decisions. Please know that while I am here to learn and increase my retirement portfolio I also care that each and every one of you out there is also successful.

Thanks for starting this forum Tom :D.

12-03-2004, 07:41 AM
Spaf wrote:

We can't predict the market, what it is going to do tomorrow or the week after, otherwise we would all be retired millionaires. SpafWell give me a little time will ya? I just started this year........ :P

Rod
12-03-2004, 07:49 AM
I don't believe today isgoing to be that great of a day due to the weak jobs report.

Spaf
12-03-2004, 07:53 AM
Hey Mike

I've been in the office since 6:00 AM waiting for ya.

I need da system. Before the moths take over my back pocket. They got the same menu at the soup kitchen ever day. And my leg hurts from that chain.

Rgds ;) Spaf

Spaf
12-03-2004, 08:01 AM
Rod

Theytake the employment survey of our department quite frequently. The last one was Diversity Assessment.

12-03-2004, 08:09 AM
Spaf wrote:
Hey Mike

I've been in the office since 6:00 AM waiting for ya.

I need da system. Before the moths take over my back pocket. They got the same menu at the soup kitchen ever day. And my leg hurts from that chain.

Rgds ;) Spaf
Silly man, no one gets "the system". It's locked up in a Swiss bank vault for future generations to look back at and say "so that's how the mlkman got the best of Warren Buffett"............:P

A lot of folks say you can't have a system that beats the market, so perhaps I'm just full of it............Let me make my first million in 4 years then I'll think about giving it out. :^

In the mean time, I'm still posting my moves............

Good luck,

M_M

Pete1
12-03-2004, 08:11 AM
A very weak jobs report, only 112,000 new jobs, most economists predicted twice that. Let's see if the exuberance for stocks continues. The bond market appears to be very happy about the weak jobs report.

Rod
12-03-2004, 08:14 AM
Pete1 wrote:
A very weak jobs report, only 112,000 new jobs, most economists predicted twice that. Let's see if the exuberance for stocks continues. The bond market appears to be very happy about the weak jobs report.
That's why Mike went F... right Mike???;)

12-03-2004, 08:15 AM
Pete1 wrote:
A very weak jobs report, only 112,000 new jobs, most economists predicted twice that. Let's see if the exuberance for stocks continues. The bond market appears to be very happy about the weak jobs report.
Rut Roh...............see, them damn "analysts" were predicting "good news"........:@

Oops, sorry..........:x I hope the bond market waits for me till Monday........:^

12-03-2004, 08:22 AM
Rod wrote:
That's why Mike went F... right Mike???;)


Just brought that up in my account talk. Purely speculative.............

Spaf
12-03-2004, 08:24 AM
Aw Mike, I was just a funnan wit you, well back to the soup kitchen :u.

Rod
12-03-2004, 08:25 AM
Hey guys, I tried making a transfer on TSP but it's "down".

Anybody else experiencing this???

12-03-2004, 08:29 AM
Spaf wrote:
Aw Mike, I was just a funnan wit you, well back to the soup kitchen :u.Smile when you say that partner................;) I could go for a bowl of soup right now............need a date?

12-03-2004, 08:30 AM
Rod wrote:
Hey guys, I tried making a transfer on TSP but it's "down".

Anybody else experiencing this???


I transfered about 30 minutes ago, worked fine. Of course, haven't gotten my confirmation yet................:shock:

Rod
12-03-2004, 08:34 AM
mlk_man wrote:
Rod wrote:
Hey guys, I tried making a transfer on TSP but it's "down".

Anybody else experiencing this???


I transfered about 30 minutes ago, worked fine. Of course, haven't gotten my confirmation yet................:shock:
Try it again... just to see if you can log-in.

Thanx!:^

12-03-2004, 08:35 AM
Rod wrote:
Try it again... just to see if you can log-in.

Thanx!:^


Nope, it's down....................sorry, hopefully not too long...................

Rod
12-03-2004, 08:42 AM
Thanx Mike! Yeah, hopefully it won't be for much longer.

Rod
12-03-2004, 08:47 AM
I'll just try the Thriftline. I almost forgot about it.:D

Rod
12-03-2004, 08:52 AM
It's back up!:^

Pete1
12-03-2004, 08:53 AM
The market is an amazing thing - everything green despite the weak jobs report, disappointing reports from retailers regardingholiday shopping, and the continued weakness of the dollar. Must be Intel and oil?

coolhand
12-03-2004, 09:01 AM
Pete1 wrote:
The market is an amazing thing - everything green despite the weak jobs report, disappointing reports from retailers regardingholiday shopping, and the continued weakness of the dollar. Must be Intel and oil?
I think themarket is still fundamentally sound andthat the jobs report should be taken with a grain of salt (it's still moving in the right direction). There is still positive newsto be derivedtoday. As you've mentioned oil is still going down plus interest rates are dropping again. Even the dollar, which is dropping as we speak, should help the "I" fund today. That all keeps consumers spending :)for the moment. Some words by the Fed are due today as well. Stay tuned.

12-03-2004, 09:21 AM
It is the Microsoft dividend (remember it hit at the market close yesterday)....fundamentally the market sucks (badly overbought).

The Europeans/Japenese have also been dumping tons of cash in the market the last two weeks.

We are in a bubble. The retail/auto sales data have the true picture for the U.S. investor.

MT





coolhand wrote:

Pete1 wrote:
The market is an amazing thing - everything green despite the weak jobs report, disappointing reports from retailers regardingholiday shopping, and the continued weakness of the dollar. Must be Intel and oil?
I think the the market is still fundamentally sound andthat the jobs report should be taken with a grain of salt (it's still moving in the right direction). There is still positive newsto be derivedtoday. As you've mentioned oil is still going down plus interest rates are dropping again. That keeps consumers spending :). Some words by the Fed are due today as well. Stay tuned.

coolhand
12-03-2004, 09:31 AM
Glad to see you're back MT! I need another sounding board.

I agree, the Microsoft dividend plays into this. And although the market appears to be overbought can we not take advantage of the situation? Is market sentiment with us? The bears have not been able to make any headway of late. I don't think it can last, but how long do you think we can ride this train?

12-03-2004, 09:36 AM
Hey Coolhand (sounds like a western character),

Yes, $32B going into the market plays into this? Hey that is more then the tax cut last year. Remember the run that gave us last year?

This train left the station and will arrive late January after the IRA/ROTH money has been dumped in and the hedge funds start shorting the heck out of the market. Just like this year. You will see that this trend has happened since the bear market. I am going to go 100% G fund the third week of January and then start playing the ups and downs like I did this year.

Good luck!

Bill

See the trend??? If MM was not on this board I will share more but on the open board this is as direct as I will get. Go F fund! Moron.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/_/_dji.gif

coolhand wrote:

Glad to see you're back MT! I need another sounding board.

I agree, the Microsoft dividend plays into this. And although the market appears to be overbought can we not take advantage of the situation? Is market sentiment with us? The bears have not been able to make any headway of late. I don't think it can last, but how long do you think we can ride this train?

12-03-2004, 09:43 AM
Now I know why your back, the last time you were her you told everyone "get out of the market, it's very bearish" ...........Then the market went up and you "disappeared". Now we finely come to the impending pull back, probably, and you come back and say "stay in, we're bullish", LOL. You're one funny dude.................

Good luck all, be careful................MT never posted his returns when he was here before, doubt he starts now............

M_M

12-03-2004, 09:48 AM
Yepper, F fund is looking really crappy today MT......................

eukrate
12-03-2004, 09:50 AM
You should get off his back milkman. Diverse opinions are useful factors in making an overall assessment. And, you're getting personal again..

12-03-2004, 10:10 AM
MarketTimer wrote:
Two cents at a time. Are you a rapper? Two cents or no sense?

I left here around 6 October (oh yeah I called that down turn - when you were 100% invested).

Asia and Europe closed strongly on the Intel "news".

Anyone with half a brain would be in the I or S fund today.

I guess you are doing the best you can with the two cent bargain brainplan.

Great system. YOU WILL be in the second worse gaining fund today.

:D





mlk_man wrote:

Yepper, F fund is looking really crappy today MT......................
Obviously you need to go back to the horsepital.........I am 100% S today, guess he'll slam that fund now..................My transfer is effective at COB today.......

Which I was F fund today.........

I feel compelled to post this past thread since he's back........draw your own conclusions.........

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum22/461.html

Good luck,

M_M

12-03-2004, 10:33 AM
eukrate wrote:
You should get off his back milkman. Diverse opinions are useful factors in making an overall assessment. And, you're getting personal again..
BTW sir, if you read other threads then you would know he came back and attacked me right away. Get the facts before you open your mouth I always say............

He must of realized he was screwing up about me being in F fund so he left to go..............who knows................................

Wheels
12-03-2004, 10:47 AM
Hey M/M, ease up on Eukrate. I understand your frustration, however Eukrate didn't disagree with anything substantive that you've posted. I stopped posting on this board a long time ago because it seemed like the stubborn, bullshitting fools were beginning to dominate it (I'll refrain from naming them as it is just my opinion). However Eukrate was posting valuable, useful information LONG before you and many others were members here. I believe he stopped posting for the same reasons I did. My advice would be to continue to post your relative info, ignore your detractors and they will likely go away. My 2 cents. Over and Out.

Dave

12-03-2004, 10:54 AM
Wheels wrote:
Hey M/M, ease up on Eukrate. I understand your frustration, however Eukrate didn't disagree with anything substantive that you've posted. I stopped posting on this board a long time ago because it seemed like the stubborn, bullshitting fools were beginning to dominate it (I'll refrain from naming them as it is just my opinion). However Eukrate was posting valuable, useful information LONG before you and many others were members here. I believe he stopped posting for the same reasons I did. My advice would be to continue to post your relative info, ignore your detractors and they will likely go away. My 2 cents. Over and Out.

Dave
Yes sir..................sorry eukrate, luv ya man.....................

learning
12-03-2004, 05:28 PM
Tom- Thanks for this sight. I was one of those gun shy people. I took a hit in the market and my risk tolerance went way down. I have been Watching and Learning. I have become a little more aggresive in my accounts and have done well, (for me). I have not watched percentages just the final dollar figure. That is what it all comes down to when we retire.

To others, hey pick at me yell at me. I only post when I see something that I think you all should think about. I give a quick little blurb and let it die there. I said Santa Clause Ralley and that was a little while before November. It will run through December for the most part. I like the market, until around April. I may jump sooner. I need to be more agressive, (I'm a whimp).

When you get into a fight on the message board you may scare new people away from this sight and they are the ones you will hurt:(. Not the person you attack. They proably do not care. I want to hear all ideas and if I do not understand I will ask. Feel free to do that with me.

Santa Clause Ralley- This is a term that I heard last year when I started to do my research. I got in around November and did well. (Around this time I found this sight.) The ralley as I understand it happens as Christmas approaches. People get into the buying spirit. They see money changing hands in the stores and get excited about the market. We have people that jump into the market around the first of Novemeber and out around the first of April. New money in the market drives it up and when it leaves the market may takes a hit. I do not know about this as I only caught a little about it from one little news segment. I am hopping that it works for me, again. It has done good so far. Other factors are part of this to be sure. Like oil is helping not hurting for a change. ABOUT TIME.:u

Now, pick at this. Be personal if you must,(just hope you do not scare others out of this sight that are new). You can not hurt my feelings and I am a slow learner. But, I am doingbetter then I would have otherwise.:!

12-03-2004, 05:44 PM
Learning,

I'm new and learning too. Don't be too worried about the trash talking. I think they all love each other, hence the passionate rhetoric. As you mentioned, May the good Bishop Nikolas (Santa Claus) speedto us aDecember blessing. You know, gold coins in our stalkings:D. Consensus seems to agree that we have some coming our way.

smedlap
12-03-2004, 07:41 PM
Chaplain, your moving about fast. Welcome to another site. Chaplain - not gold! please - how about I coin platinum!:^

tsptalk
12-03-2004, 08:29 PM
learning wrote:
When you get into a fight on the message board you may scare new people away from this sight and they are the ones you will hurt:(. Not the person you attack. They proably do not care. I want to hear all ideas and if I do not understand I will ask. Feel free to do that with me.
Agree. I am just going to delete the bashing posts! No need for it.

Say something positive, interesting, thought provoking, funny,share your ideas or tell us why you disagree with others, butthe bashing and negative attacks have got to stop. I don't mind you calling someone on something, but please do it constructively.

Thanks,
Tom

Mike
12-03-2004, 08:59 PM
The dollar fell to a new low again today - down ~1.4% against the Euro and about 1% against other currencies. This should propel the I-fund up a considerable amount on Monday, even if the EAFE is relatively flat.

coolhand
12-03-2004, 10:03 PM
Mike wrote:
The dollar fell to a new low again today - down ~1.4% against the Euro and about 1% against other currencies. This should propel the I-fund up a considerable amount on Monday, even if the EAFE is relatively flat.
That's what I'mhoping :^! But the inherent risk in this fund goes higher as the dollar goes lower.

Watch carefully!

12-03-2004, 10:46 PM
I'm still hedging with the I fund...like 40% I....40% S...and 20% C.......feeling a wee bit exposed...but on I'm on this hoss for a while. Any body still 100% I?

tsptalk
12-03-2004, 11:37 PM
Mike wrote:
The dollar fell to a new low again today - down ~1.4% against the Euro and about 1% against other currencies. This should propel the I-fund up a considerable amount on Monday, even if the EAFE is relatively flat.
Curious, why do you think it will effect Monday and not already factored in today (Friday)?

Thanks

Spaf
12-03-2004, 11:54 PM
Retire rich..... If I was 100% I - Fund I wouldn't be able to sleep at nights! My opinion is that in a bull market you should select stocks of good performance, diversify proportionally and shed stocks that are not performing. C-S-I have been good stocks, but the I - Fund has a two fold risk. It needs to be watched carefully!

Tom.....Please delete the unwanted posts. I was trying to work today and also check with you guys, and those posts got me totally discombobulated (if thats a word). And I will speek up for new members. It makes them:x.

Rgds :) Spaf

Spaf
12-04-2004, 12:24 AM
Last Week

Ending Nov 26 to Dec 3 the TSP funds on share price recorded increases/decreases as follows: G = +.01, F=-.01, C=+.09, S= +.19, I=+.24

So, the stock funds did ok.

The market reacted on low oil and economic indicators. A good advance on the 1st, but also some daily fizzles. There was some strength in the market but also some dissapointments. Some of the economic forecasts were missed. On the big picture, we have a bull market, lately it has been moving sideways, showing the economic uncertainity. My opinion, is that it used November stats and it should pick up for December (Christmas), and continue through much of January. The opposite consideration would be a decline in sales and a change in the oil factor.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

Mike
12-04-2004, 12:38 AM
tsptalk wrote:

Curious, why do you think it will effect Monday and not already factored in today (Friday)?

Thanks
Here's how I'm looking at it: the EAFE index gained 0.6% on Friday. That's $0.06 per $10, or $0.09 per $15, which is exactly how much the I fund gained. Now, if the currency exchange rates were flat, this is the gain I would expect to see. However, with the dollar falling over 1% against the Euro and about 1% against various other currencies, I would expect an additional currency bump in the I fund. Since I did not see that in Friday's closing price, I am led to believe that it will be factored into Monday's price. Am I wrong on this?

tsptalk
12-04-2004, 01:20 AM
Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense.I looked on http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.htmland it says the EAFE was actually down slightly Friday in local (foreign) currencies, but up .6% in US dollars.

It will be interesting to see what happens Monday.

Spaf
12-04-2004, 01:35 AM
Mike.........I see your concern on the I-fund. BIMHO this is a complication that is inherent in the international fund itself. For us TSP novices, the bottom line is whether the I - fund is a good investment or not. The risks of the fund should be evaluated as a good performer in this bull market. What are the tolerances, individually in a fund that has a two fold risk (currency+market), and how does one include this in their TSP alocation. This is a personal decision. I believe that the risk of the I - fund have been researched and documented on this forum. It's up to the individual members how much if any of the I - fund they want in their portfolio.

My recommendations for an international fund (everyone but the US) would be 50-40% aggressive, 30% or less conservative, and0% if you don't watch it. Reason being that the C and S funds (US funds) are doing a good job. Yes the I - fund has out performed. But consider the risk and your tolerance!

Please don't leap into a swimming pool unless you knowif it has water. Know whatyou are doing before taking the plunge. It's your retirement!

Rgds :) Spaf

Mike
12-04-2004, 02:50 AM
I think I *generally* know what I'm doing. My YTD gains are in the 8.7% range now, in spite of the fact I missed the big two-week surge in early November. My 75% allocation in S is short-term - I'll be pulling that to G next week. My 25% in the I fund is going to remain there until the dollar shows signs of breaking out of its extended bout of weakness... which could take awhile.

Honestly, if I manage 8.7% each year, I'll have nothing to worry about - and will probably be able to live a much more lavish lifestyle in retirement than I ever considered living while working. Ah, the advantage of the 40 year-plan... :^

Rod
12-04-2004, 05:03 AM
smedlap wrote:
Chaplain, your moving about fast. Welcome to another site. Chaplain - not gold! please - how about I coin platinum!:^
My Wife & Ihave platinum wedding / engagement rings.Does that count???:D

Rod
12-04-2004, 05:04 AM
tsptalk wrote:

Agree. I am just going to delete the bashing posts! No need for it.




Thank you, Tom.

learning
12-04-2004, 01:08 PM
Mike wrote:
Here's how I'm looking at it: the EAFE index gained 0.6% on Friday. That's $0.06 per $10, or $0.09 per $15, which is exactly how much the I fund gained. Now, if the currency exchange rates were flat, this is the gain I would expect to see. However, with the dollar falling over 1% against the Euro and about 1% against various other currencies, I would expect an additional currency bump in the I fund. Since I did not see that in Friday's closing price, I am led to believe that it will be factored into Monday's price. Am I wrong on this?



Mike: Please, post on Monday or when you can if it worked out the way you thought. This could impact when people should put money in or take it out of the I fund. That is a good theory and deserves to be checked out.

Thanks

Learning

smedlap
12-04-2004, 03:07 PM
Mike, you're doing great.Everyday one learns. Most important point is you areplaying your own account premised upon your own decisions. Look how much I've learned - I'm still 100% I fund.Isn't that stupid?:end:. I think I need a prayor from the chaplain as the surf is rising! Or is it declining? We'll anyway between this post and the I post, there are many excellent viewpoint exchanges. I hope I get that extra I exchange rate bump on Monday. Could not figure out what happened to it. Thought someone at TSP simply put it into the coffee slush fund. Glad that Tom picked up on it.

I think I'm going to ride the high wave I fund thru what I have calculated a - 1% consolidation premised upon last year's data up to and during the FOMC. Then I hope 5 weeks of good returns starting 15 Dec on. I said "I think" as I will make my day-by-day decisions premised upon everyones' "informative" posting contributions! But things certainly still look very good.....

coolhand
12-04-2004, 04:40 PM
Smedlap,

How do you see the Spain bombing playing out in the "I"? The media doesn't seem to making a real big deal out of it. Of course the media isn't the financial market.I think it may just be a short blip on the radar screen. Only because it isn't getting a whole lot of air time.

Futures are mixed http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/

I don't particularly pay too much attention to futures, but it's there.

sonofthunder
12-04-2004, 06:04 PM
cool page yall got here. first time user today. Hi Yall. been watchin & readin. like what i see and read. already made up some of that lost loot:) when i knew no better in 2003.:dah: know nothing about the market and appreciate you folks bein kind enough to hep 1 who is just learnin the rope. been hanging in that S & I fund mostly since oct.04 and this site gives a feller hope in knowin what all members in the tsp should know. yes there be more life to our fund then just the G & F andone can make some bucks just by learin the basics and movin 1s choices from time to time. want to thank all for your great input. will get the word out at work so others can check this out. have a great weekend yall. my teams comin on soon. go sooners!:^

learning
12-04-2004, 10:04 PM
Ok, I hear people talk about other sights. I can use all the help I can get. I LOVE this sight, but, I will like to see other sights. Please, tell me the other sights that you all are using. I hear you all saying to Chaplin found another sight well whats your first sight then.:#

Chaplin. Yes, I want the gold coin sliped through the window into my stalking this Christmas.

I have been weak in the I fund. I am slowly moving money in to it. I am cost averaging in if you will. Would hate to move a lot in and then have it take a big hit at one time. I have been reading that Europe and Asia are talking about buying our dollars to stop the losing trend it is in, or slow it down. This could hurt the I fund.

Take care.:D

tsptalk
12-04-2004, 10:40 PM
sonofthunder wrote:
cool page yall got here. first time user today. Hi Yall. been watchin & readin. like what i see
Thanks sonofthunder, and welcome (if I haven't already :)).

Spaf
12-04-2004, 11:33 PM
After reading some of the recent posts/coments, I wanted to state my humble opinion.

Be careful of what you hear. You can find good and bad advice mixed together. where It may at first look good,certain areas need caution. Ferengi Rule #59, 177.

1. Our TSP funds are multi fund indexes. Beware of buying sector funds such as precious metals, technology, etc. They have higher risk and are more volatile, #62, 82, 218.

2. When someone says to get ready for a recession. Without a date, thats like saying get ready for rain. Or inFlorida it would be like saying be prepared for a hurricane, #162.

3. 40 - 50% International fund is aggressive. 30% is moderate. Members near retirement should consider the2-fold risk of the I - fund

4. Buying the dips and selling the tops, is idealistic market timing. Sometimes you can do it, sometimes you can't. This works great when used with monday-morning-quarterbacking. In TSP we just try and avoid the bear slashes, and run with the bulls. Using some of the market trader firms makes the buying and selling a lot easier than TSP where the transfer takes 1-2 days.

5. Paying off miscellaneous loans. Now thats a good idea. Especially those with high rates, RE: Capital One commercials.

6. Mortgages with arms are risky. Yea, thats a given. Interest rates go up so does the mortgage rate. Low fixed rates are better.

7. Be careful of investing, know what you are doing, and beware of any "confidential systems" i.e., buying into bridges, #74.

8. When will the current bull market end. Don't know. And neither does anyone else! But you can be prepared. And, you can educate yourself by understanding "The Dow Theory" in recommended readings in the site forum or by a search of this topic.

Rgds, and be careful #199!:)Spaf

Mike
12-05-2004, 12:33 AM
I track the european markets at www.euroland.com (http://www.euroland.com) (indices).

I watch the dollar v euro / yen and futures for S&P / Nasdaq at money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call

As for the I fund, basically what you should be watching for is what percentage the I fund rises or falls compared to the EAFE. Of course, Tom said earlier that the 0.6% gain on the EAFE Friday was already corrected for the exchange rate, in which case my theory is meaningless. I'll still be watching closely on Monday though, to make sure this is the case.

Spaf
12-05-2004, 12:43 AM
Mike
Watching the I - fund closely! Yea thats the idea! :) Spaf

12-05-2004, 04:25 AM
Ferengi Rule #1 - the trend is your friend.

You can nay say all you want. Those are the type of people that sit on their hands and let the obvious pass them by.

Recession - when gas/food prices (that are not counted towards towards inflation) are going through the roof and the low end retailers are struggling then that is a signal that something is up. When U.S. government spends 20% more then they take in that is a sign of pain moving forward. Last time the U.S. dollar fall like this was 1987 and the S&P 500 fall 25% in two days.

Spaf - those who are proactive and not sit back and say this that and the other are the ones that make money. You summed it up -

In TSP we just try and avoid the bear slashes, and run with the bulls. There are people on this board hiding out in the G fund and moving to F fund after the F fund Nav goes up .07 in one day.

If you look at my chart: You will see that if you by in Halloween and sell on Martin Luther King day has worked five years in a row. 2003 was shaping up with the same pattern - the reactoactive tax cuts started the bull run in a bear market.

Keep in mind we will still be in a bear market for another 8 to 10 years - you keep saying we are in a bull market - WE ARE NOT. You need to make money in periods like NOW and not sit back and nay say.

Good luck!

learning
12-05-2004, 06:22 AM
Ok, here is something I have not thought about and now I need to. So I would like some ideas from all of you, please. I change my funds, (not near as often as some of you). So I was not paying attention tohow my money goes into the different funds. How do you do it. All G and there it sits tell your bullish and do a trade? Stocks and there it sits tell you do a trade?:oo Or, Perhaps change allocations to reflect where you are in the funds. Most of the year I sit where I am at and trade once in a while. I believe I like comming in around November and getting out around April.

Thanks

smedlap
12-05-2004, 06:46 AM
You made the first very smart move. You were not afraid to ask! Always ask. That's what so nice about this site.

Go into your account and go to Account Transactions. On the next slide, type your SSN and Pin number and enter, Next slide click on Interfund transfers. Next slide, since you are just starting recommend you diversify by putting 33% in the 3 funds or follow Tom's advice. Some of us play very aggressively or take much more risk.

G fund is a no brainer and only a place to retreat to during market declines.

Go ahead and try a transfer today as you can enter again and cancel without any problem. Trades made befor 12:00 EST are made at COB the same day or before the market open nextAM. Otherwise it is 2 days.

Change your contribution also in the same way.

smedlap
12-05-2004, 06:58 AM
Market Trader - good morning. Some very valid points. We have had an accounts trade Delta since 1976. Not sure I agree with you on a Bear market but that just places us on opposides of the fence. Do hawever agree with your Forengi rule number 1 and that one must make money during opportunistic times such asthis.

I never thought about investing inIRA until August as everyone recommends as early as possible. But your right! I also ran the stats on the last week of january and clearly the time to have run from stocks!

Your thoughts of retreating to G 4 days preceeding the FOMC? And then reentering? Or are you keeping a steady hand? And what hand is that again?

Thanks, being in Hawaii, your up very early or coming home from a late party!

12-05-2004, 07:38 AM
Smed,

The pattern with the fed tightening is the market likes if that day and then the next day it sells off. I.E. The day of the .25 is added to the short rate we have a rally the next day is a down day. I believe they meet on the 14th. That would be great because the next day you guys have your TSP contributions hit.

Do not fret about the market until the 3rd week of January.

Who knows where the market would be without the tax cuts that passed last March? Historically tax cuts help the market for about 18 months and we are coming up to that time frame.

By plan is to move my TSP nugget to the side in Jan and play the ups and downs like I have done this year.

Good luck!

MT

tsptalk
12-05-2004, 04:52 PM
MarketTimer wrote:
Keep in mind we will still be in a bear market for another 8 to 10 years - you keep saying we are in a bull market - WE ARE NOT. You need to make money in periods like NOW and not sit back and nay say.

I guess it doesn't matter what we call it, but what is your definition of a bear market to make you say weare still in one? The S&P 500 is up 49% in less than two years. If you are getting technical by saying we are down since the 2000 top, then we can say we are still in a bull market from the early 80's where the uptrend was never broken. Only a bubble bursting to normal levels...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/sp500_20yr.gif
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com (http://www.decisionpoint.com)


[/u]
By plan is to move my TSP nugget to the side in Jan and play the ups and downs like I have done this year.
I do agree with this however, as a short term possibilty. The market will need a rest soon, but I believe it stillhas some legsleft in it before then (as you mention).

tsptalk
12-05-2004, 05:05 PM
Also, the S&P 400 (mid-caps) and S&P 600 (small caps) are still very much in a bull market...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/smallcaps04.gif
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com

smedlap
12-05-2004, 05:21 PM
Thanks Tom, and Market Timer! Both views are most valuable and most appreciated by all, and certainly me. I think it fairly clear how we should plan our respective moves in the near term (being next week). Bull or Bear market, who cares the position as long as we don't slip into the caca!:^ 100% in I fund for Monday and I see the dollar is projected to continue down against the Euro. Will be looking for I fund bump Monday due for Friday's trade. Happy trading!

Show-me
12-05-2004, 06:11 PM
Great comments from all today. Thankyou!

tsptalk
12-06-2004, 09:53 PM
Mike wrote:
The dollar fell to a new low again today - down ~1.4% against the Euro and about 1% against other currencies. This should propel the I-fund up a considerable amount on Monday, even if the EAFE is relatively flat.
You may have been right Mike. The dollar was up modestly, and the EAFE index was down .4% (in foreign currency) so you'd expect the I fund to take it on the chin. Instead it was a rather tame .03.

Even though the I fund was down, it wascushioned as you suggested.

Mike
12-07-2004, 12:29 AM
It feels really strange spotting something like that. :shock:

Mike
12-07-2004, 04:50 AM
Futures are up slightly, European markets are recouping yesterday's losses, and the dollar is down again... could be a good I-fund day.

Timer
12-07-2004, 10:52 PM
Mike wrote:
Futures are up slightly, European markets are recouping yesterday's losses, and the dollar is down again... could be a good I-fund day.Mike, you mean this sets the table for 12/8 not the 7th?