C Fund Link

[Show-me]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=GE%2c+MSFT%2c+XOM%2c+PFE%2c+WMT%2c+INTL% 2c+AIG%2c+CSCO%2c+IBM%2c+C

The top 10 holdings as per TSP site. 22.72% of the Fund.

Thanks Show-me

[Timer]

Show-me, just so I understand, these 10 stocks represent 22.72% of theCfund? Thanksin advance.

[Show-me]

Timer wrote:
Show-me, just so I understand, these 10 stocks represent 22.72% of theCfund? Thanksin advance.Yes. Right off the TSP Fact Sheet.

[vectorman]

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

[Birchtree]

As of last Friday, 337 coimpanies on the S&P 500 index had reported earnings. Of these 65% surpassed analyst expectations, 15% matched Wall Street estimates, and 20% missed. At this time, the growth rate for the broad gauge's fourth quarter stands at 14.9%, above the 13.8% that was expected the week before. This week 47 S&P companies will announce quarterly results along with two Dow components. These companies have also been dutifully purchasing their own stock now for seceral years - may continue to help earnings comparisons even in a slow GDP. No bears here yet to worry about.

Dennis

[Birchtree]

There was a period back in the late 1990s where the S&P was putting in many of the dot-com era names. Some have now been removed, or are down 90%. If you look at the constituents of the Dow, none really was caught up in the dot-com era. And the Dow never had an Enron or a WorldCom.

The result: When technology stocks were soaring in the late 1990s, the S&P 500 generally was outpacing the Dow industrials. The S&P 500 rose 27% in 1998, compared with 16% for the industrial average. During the main market boom, from 1995 through the indexes' highs in 2000, the S&P 500 rocketed 233%, while the industrials soared 206%.

But after the bubble popped, the S&P 500 slid 49% before it bottomed out in October 2002. The Dow industrials tumbled 38%. Little wonder that the Dow has gotten back within range of its record faster than the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 includes almost every big company investors have heard of - 500 of them. All the Dow components are in the S&P 500. Because some S&P 500 companies are acquired every year or suffer sudden declines, trhe S&P 500's makeup changes several times a year. And its calculation is the opposite of the Dow industrials'. The index is meant to reflect the value of the overall big-stock market, so moves in each stock are weighted to reflect the camoany's market value.

What does that mean? The S&P 500 tracks market quirks much more closely than the industrial average. The Dow is the tortoise to the S&P's hare. The comparison between the Dow and the S&P 500 is instructive. The S&P 500 outpaced the industrial average in the late 1990s and has done so since the bull market began in 2002. This year, the industrial average is up about 1%, compared with 4.6% for the S&P 500. General Motors and IBM have weighed on the industrial average, and 14 of its 30 components are down for the year so far.

But taken over the whole period since the start of 1995, the Dow is the winner, rising 184%, compared with 176% for the S&P 500. The Dow's resilience in the bear market made up for the S&P 500's greater strength when stocks were booming. That race went to the tortoise.

The Dow needs about 10% to surpass its record of 11722.98 set in January 2000, almost six years ago.

The S&P 500 would have to advance more than 20% to return to its record of 1527.46 reached in March 2000. I think it will rock to the top.

[The_Technician]

but notice that 52% of the S&P companies are below the 50 day average....its been going down since around 23 Jan.....was in or around 65.....

It has a steady and deliberate drop in the curve as it goes day by day....see for yourself at this site.....

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?$spxa50r

[Birchtree]

The Technician,

Looks fine from my perspective - just a normal give back correction of the move up from the October lows. My thinking is that the October lows may have in fact been the 4-year cycle low - only a year ahead of schedule. That could actually mean clear sailing into 2008. All it requires is courage of the conviction - today was hit the target day in the energy patch. Gotta stay in until the lady sings. Thanx for the graph looksie. We are all here to help each other in our own small way. Hope the Wizard returns - I like his perspective as well as yours. Take care.

Dennis

[The_Technician]

share your thoughts about the low there Birchy.....but I have never seen a low last only a month or so.....when they go, they generally go down for a year or 2 and then they will drop 40-50%....October was hardly a nick in the old move up......

given the economics are hitting the wall with inflation and energy and interest rates kicking us in the teeth, I would expect some consequence from those facts....

Good luck staying long Birchy, you need to flex up some though in my view....

[dell]

Did the C Fund pick up 12 cents today?

[Birchtree]

Dell,

Was hoping I could see $13.50 for a nice dollar cost average - may have to wait longer now - if I miss the opportunity in the next seven trading days then it's chauked up as a sacrifice. $14.00 makes the overall balance look better - but since I'm so close at this level with the balance down, go ahead and give me my shares C fund.

[Birchtree]

Consider that during the roaring market advance of 1995 - 1999 there were five pullbacks of 10% or greater in the S&P index, one each in 1996, 1998, and 1999, and two in 1997. The bullish view of the recent lack of broad market dips is that it's a sign of underlying strength of the advance. The S&P 500 index had two pull backs last year that were little more than blips. (painful though they were). The worst was a drop of 7.2% between 3/7 and 4/20/05. The S&P 500 hasn't suffered a decline of 10% or more in three years.

[yakers]

Consider that during the roaring market advance of 1995 - 1999 there were five pullbacks of 10% or greater in the S&P index, one each in 1996, 1998, and 1999, and two in 1997.

Well, I'm not much for market timing but if you have a strong sense that there is only a temporary pull back in the S&P (or any part of the market) then that certainly is the time to buy. Sort of hard mentally to buy when the market is headed down but can be the better thing to do, especially over time. I DCA at a constant rate and that works pretty well but friends who buy stocks have done pretty well buying on the dips except for tech stocks on the 2000 NASDAQ

[Birchtree]

Yakers,

Please be sure to read the recommended reading that Mlk-man posted - it is very interesting. Just another strategy available to make money or accumulate shares.

[Rod]

Sticking to our guns paid off.;)

Give yerself a good ole pat on the back.

[Birchtree]

The SPX breadth MCO is on a solid buy signal now. TSPgo was correct. Wth this new impulsive move on the SPX breadth MCO this week, we now have the SPX breadth MCSUM moving higher after recently testing its zero line - this is a highly bullish longer term event. And as long as the SPX breadth MCO now remains above the zero line, the path of least resistance will remain higher until proven otherwise. The OEX or the S&P 100 index is also in an upside bias. Rocking really.

[Birchtree]

how long until 1527.46? Financials will help.

From Merrill - David Rosenberg - North American Economist

"As the year progresses, expect short term rates to decline, longer term rates to stay flat or move slightly higher, and spreads to widen. History shows that has been a good climate for financial stocks. Another plus: the sector's valuation is below its longer-term average and near the low end of its historical range at a time when earnings forecasts for many financial companies could prove to be too conservative".

The S&P 500 has a 21% component financial position and that bodes well for the sector and the market as a whole, making it another reason to stay with the growth theme.

And not to be forgotten - the I fund has 24.8% financials.

[Birchtree]

Perhaps because the current environment for commodities is quite speculative, the materials sector has been the best performing sector in the S&P 500 during the past six months. It has risen by 25% or so, about 50% more than telecom, the runner-up. In my opinion, the current benign inflation situation cuopled with interest rate normalization can sustain the "Goldilocks" global economy. It's time for the financials to start kicking in to help - or the SPX will never get to 1500.

[Birchtree]

The industrial companies that make up the S&P 500 index - which excludes financial, transportation and utility companies - have a staggering $643 billion in cash and equivalents. Wall Street analyst remain unsure how companies will spend this record hoard. Even an unprecedented $500 billion of stock buybacks over the past six quarters have failed to stop companies from building lofty amounts of cash on hand.

Companies began propping up their reserves through 16 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth. The money tucked away in corporate coffers has now gotten to the point where it's having a major impact on quarterly earnings, with S&P reporting that income earned on interest rose 37.9 percent in 2005 and is expected to increase another 64 percent this year. Coincidentally, the same Federal Reserve that spooked the markets with 16 straight interest rate hikes has actually been doing these big companies a favor. The increase in rates helped companies grow through higher interest payments.

Leading the pack with the most cash is Exxon Mobil which has about $36.55 billion in cash. That amount is nearly equal to its 2005 profit of $36.13 billion, the highest ever for a U.S. company. We are in a time that is out of whack with all historical numbers - what are they going to do with all that cash? My guess is the M&A business will pick up. Maybe more expansion into Russia and China along with India. The investing world is wide open.

[Birchtree]

Increasing demand for U.S. capital goods might illustrate a second-order effect of globalization. When 40% of SPX earnings are from foreign exports, one has to pay attention. The rise of export oriented producers in China and elsewhere created a flood of cheap consumer goods into the U.S., increasing competition for the U.S. businesses and holding prices down. Now, though, as those same foreign producers invest to boost capacity, they're also boosting demand and prices for the kind of capital goods that the U.S. makes. There is very strong demand for capital goods in Asian markets, both from Western firms building local facilities and from local firms looking to compete with the foreigners.

[Birchtree]

U.S. companies are spending record sums repurchasing their own stock, a move that could boost per-share earnings of many at a time when the stock market has been gyrating, often downward.

The companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index - generally the biggest in the U.S. - plowed more than $100 billion into their own shares in the first quarter, up more than 22% from a year earlier. In the year ended March 31, they spent a record $367 billion on so-called stock buybacks, an amount so large it could cover this year's Medicare budget.

The cash on the books of S&P 500 companies adds up to 7.4% of their stock market value, the highest level in almost two decades. It is nearly triple the level of 1999. All that money is the product of a long-term surge in corporate profits. Companies in the S&P 500 have increased their quarterly operating profits at a double digit percentage clip for four years.

Shareholder dividends have risen 14% for S&P 500 companies since the start of 2003.

[Birchtree]

Who would even think it possible.
From TWSJ 6/28 by Anjali Athavaley.

Money managers have become more bullish on large-capitalization value stocks and have lost enthusiasm for small-cap shares, a shift in sentiment driven by expectations of a slowdown in the economy. Fifty-four percent of managers favored U.S. large-cap value stocks, up from 36% in the previous quarter, the largest gain for any asset class in the two-year history of the Investment Manager Outlook, a quarterly survey by Russell Investment Group. At the same time, bullishness for small-cap growth stocks declined to 27% from 57% in the preceding period - the largest quarter to quarter drop in the survey's history. Growth stocks are generally faster-growing companies with the best prospects for increasing earnings, while value stocks have prices that look cheap compared to their profits or assets.

Birchtree says use due diligence, but I expect large-cap stocks to outperform small caps in part because they are more likely to pay a dividend. That mitigates a lot of the risk because you are still getting a return on the dividend.

[Birchtree]

Buybacks aren't the only factor goosing earnings for the SPX; higher interest rates are also helping. The S&P 500 companies have an eye-popping $631 billion in cash. Their interest income on that cash increased 34 percent last year. This year SPX expects it to rise 60 percent. S&P expects the earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 11/1 percent this year. Of that 1.3 percent is expected to come from the companies' increase cash income yhanks to higher interest rates. There is always a silver thread.

[Birchtree]

Right on the money today at $13.60 - how lucky is that? My previous low purchase this year was at $13.63 so I'm very lucky indeed. The question now is how much more luck do I need - I'll take three more buys under $14.00 and be pleased.

[recliner]

today 2nd of Aug. C fund and S fund "come on baby come to Papa"